DAILY REPORT

Transcription

1 Financial market analysis unit DAILY REPORT Brokerage Unit Milica Travica Ljiljana Zipovski Srđan Maletić Snežana Spasojević Vladimir Gavović FX sales Unit Custody Unit Darko Karanović Vitomir Marić Marija Prebanić Biljana Radosavljević Dragan Ignja FX rate Domestic market International market Currency Previous Change YTD Currency Previous Change YTD EUR % 2.43% EURUSD % 1.67% USD % 1.04% EURCHF % -3.00% CHF % 5.11% EURGBP % 5.86% GBP % 6.17% GBPUSD % % Source: NBS USDJPY % -4.44% 125 EUR/ 1.50 EUR/USD Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 6, 8 mil EUR at average rate 110, EUR and USD indicators for current day: Time Country Event Period Previous Forecast!! 07:00 Germany CPI y-o-y Apr 1.2% 1.2% MM and fixed income Average weighted interest rate - REPO Interbank - Serbia NBS Key rate transactions Previous Change bps Maturity Previous BEONIA % 7 dana 9.26% 9.27% BELIBOR1M Source: NBS Next mon.com BELIBOR3M Source: Reuters T Bills - Serbia Maturity Previous Major Key Rates 3 month 9.17% 9.48% 6 month 9.39% 9.45% ECB 0.50% 12 month 9.58% 9.95% FED 0.25% 24 month 10.24% 10.80% SNB 0.00% 36 month 10.49% 11.39% 60 month 12.94% 14.74% 84 month 12.65% - 12 month EUR 3.93% 5.75% 24 month EUR 4.875% 4.88% 36 month EUR 5.05% 5.85% 18 month EUR 4.875% 50 month EUR 5.00% Interbank - World NBS key rate + NBS key rate 24 month 0.98% + 4% Previous Change bps Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance EONIA 0.086% 0.074% EURIBOR1M 0.112% 0.112% EURIBOR3M 0.203% 0.203% FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR6M 0.303% 0.303% Price Yield LIBOR1M (USD) % % A % LIBOR3M (USD) % % A % LIBOR1M (CHF) -0.00% -0.00% A % LIBOR3M (CHF) % % A % Source: Belex Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day

2 Equity market SERBIA Previous Change YTD Belex % 6.39% Belex line 1, , % 5.86% Turnover 26,954,686 Din. 23,816,849 Din % 242, , % Source: Belex Ratios Belex15 P / B P / E 0,59 4, Belex15 Belex Line 1, 700 1,200 1,000 - members of Belex % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 1.30% 2.90% -2.22% -0.83% -0.32% -0.27% -0.14% -6.67% % GMON TIGR MTLC AERO AIKB IMLK ENHL JMBN FITO JESV ALFA VZAS KMBN NIIS SJPT Year-on-year inflation temporarily stopped decreasing in April, inching up to 11.4%, from 11.2% in March, with the consumer price index (CPI), the official measure of inflation, rising 0.8% month-on-month, driven almost exclusively by the growth of vegetable prices, according to a statement on the National Bank of Serbia s (NBS) website yesterday. The central bank expects year-on-year inflation to resume declining over the coming period, thanks to the new agricultural season, the low aggregate demand, the achieved stability of the foreign ex market, and a high base effect. According to the Statistics Office, the CPI in April rose 1.9% compared to December 1.9%. In April, the prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages had the sharpest month-on-month increase, of 2%, followed by the prices in the recreation and culture sector, 1.2%, the price of restaurant and hotel services, 0.6%, health care services, 0.5%, and clothing and footwear, 0.1%. At the same time, the prices of transportation decreased 0.3%, as the prices of furniture, household equipment and maintenance went down 0.2%, the prices in the communication sector 0.1%, and the prices in the education sector 0.1%. According to economic analyst Sasa Djogovic of Belgrade s think-tank the Market Research Institute (IZIT), the 2013 inflation is expected to be between 7% and 7.5%, Vecernje Novosti wrote yesterday. According to earlier reports, the NBS targets inflation of 4% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points in (Source: Executive newsletter) Cable TV and internet service provider Serbia Broadband (SBB) could get a new owner in late 2013, Blic wrote yesterday, without citing any sources. SBB, which also provides fixed telephony services, is very interesting to foreign investors, which would like to buy it from the current owners, the Mid Europa fund, the daily wrote. According to Blic, SBB, which serves some,000 users, could soon also become a mobile telephony operator. SBB makes an annual profit of about 6 billion and has an annual turnover of some 12.5 billion, the daily wrote, citing data from the Business Registers Agency (APR). (Source: Executive newsletter) Serbia will export about a million tons of corn less than usual in 2013 and is poised to suffer losses of some USD million as a result of this, Milan Prostran, agriculture adviser at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce (PKS) has told Blic, adding that Serbia s annual corn exports normally come at 1.5 million tons. Serbia s corn exports will plunge 70% in 2013, while the first significant shipments of corn abroad can only be expected in the last two months of this year, the daily wrote. Zarko Galetin, director of the Novi Sad Commodity Ex (NSCE), for his part, said that Serbia will even have to resort to importing corn to keep up with domestic demand given that all stockpiles have been used up. Serbia s agricultural trade surplus in the first two months of 2013 dropped 57.4% year-onyear to USD 52.6 million, with exports shrinking 2% to USD 320 million and imports jumping 32% to USD million, due to last year s drought impact, as well as increased aflatoxin levels that have halted exports of milk, dairy products, and corn, PKS said last month. (Source: Executive newsletter)

3 Aerodrom Nikola Tesla Energoprojekt holding Naftna industrija Srbije Soja protein Tigar Izvor: Bloomberg Prime Listing AERO , % 0.42% ENHL , % 1.13% NIIS 934 7,190, % -0.53% SJPT , % 4.33% TIGR 168 1, % % 0.09 #N/A N/A ,356,019,531 Din. 7,107,958,008 Din. 152,298,406, Din. 10,054,478,516 Din. 288,701,294 Din. Alfa Plam Komercijalna banka Metalac Izvor: Bloomberg Standard Listing ALFA 8, % 3.28% KMBN 1, 1,363, % -2.68% MTLC 2, , -2.22% -4.35% ,498,488,403 Din. 12,628,499,023 Din. 2,244,000,000 Din. Aik Banka ad Niš Aik Banka prioritetne akcije Albus ad Novi Sad AMS Osiguranje ad Beograd Bambi Banat ad Beograd Banini ad Poštanska Štedionica ad Poštanska Štedionica prior.akc. BAS ad Beograd BB Minaqua ad BIP ad Beograd Credy Banka ad Kragujevac Crvenka Fabrika Šećera Čačanska Banka ad Čoka Duvanska Industrija Dimničar ad Beograd Dunav Osiguranje ad Energomontaža ad Energoprojekt Entel Energoprojekt Industrija Energoprojekt Niskogradnja Energoprojekt Visokogradnja Galeb GTE ad Beograd Galenika Fitofarmacija Globos Osiguranje Goša FOM Goša Montaža Imlek ad Imlek ad prioritetne akcije Impol Seval Iritel ad Beograd Jedinstvo Sevojno Jubmes Banka Jugohemija ad Beograd Komercijalna Banka prior.akc. Kopaonik ad Beograd Lasta ad Beograd Luka Dunav ad Pančevo Messer Tehnogas Mlekara ad Subotica Montinvest ad Beograd Napred GP ad Neoplanta ad Novi Sad Niška Mlekara ad Niš Planinka ad Kuršumlija Planum GP ad Beograd Privredna Banka Beograd Proges ad Beograd Projektomontaža ad Beograd Pupin Telecom ad Zemun Radijator ad Zrenjanin Ravanica ad Bajmok Simpo ad Vranje Sloga ad Novi Pazar Srpska Banka ad Beograd Šajkaška Fabrika Šećera Takovo Osiguranje Kragujevac Te-To ad Senta Telefonija ad Beograd Univerzal Banka ad Beograd Valjaonica Bakra Sevojno Veterinarski Zavod Subotica Vital ad Vrbas Voda Vrnjici ad Vršački Vinogradi ad Open market (Selected stocks) AIKB 1, , % -0.77% #N/A N/A AIKBPB % 0.00% n/a n/a #N/A N/A ALBS % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A AMSO % 0.00% BMBI 20, % 0.01% BNNI 6, % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A PSBN 25, % 0.00% PSBNPB 12, % 0.00% n/a n/a 7.72 BASB % 0.00% , BBMN 5, % 0.00% BIPB 95 58, % % #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A CYBN 3, % 0.00% CRFS 6, % 0.00% CCNB 8, % 0.00% COKA 2, % 0.00% DMNR 4, % 0.00% DNOS % -0.16% EGMN 3, % -1.30% EPEN 2, % 0.00% EPIN 1, % 0.00% EPNS % -0.59% EPVI % 0.00% GLBG % 0.00% FITO 3, % 0.00% GLOS % 0.00% 0.06 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A GFOM % 0.00% GMON 2,657 2,184, % % IMLK 3, , % -0.27% IMLKPB 1, % 0.00% IMPL % -5.88% IRTL % 0.00% JESV 4, % 1.23% JMBN 8, % 0.00% JGHM 2, % 0.00% 0.53 #N/A N/A KMBNPB % 5.52% n/a n/a 8.18 KOPB 1, % 0.00% LSTA % 0.00% LKDN 8, , % % TGAS 4, 27, -3.91% -7.81% MLSU 1, % 0.00% MOIN 8, % 0.00% 0.32 #N/A N/A NPRD % 0.00% NEOP , % -6.94% MLNI 1, % 0.00% PLNN 14, % 0.01% PLNM % 0.00% PRBN % % 0.07 #N/A N/A PRGS % 5.56% 0.03 #N/A N/A PRJM 1, % 0.00% PTLK % 0.00% RDJZ % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A RVNC % 0.00% #N/A N/A SMPO % 0.00% 0.03 #N/A N/A SLNP % 0.00% 0.88 #N/A N/A SRBN 9, % 0.00% SJKS 4, % 0.00% TKOSM 3, % 0.00% TETO 8, % 0.00% TLFN % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A UNBN % 3.08% 0.06 #N/A N/A VBSE % 0.00% VZAS % 0.00% #N/A N/A VITL 1, % 0.00% 0.25 #N/A N/A VDAV 7, % 0.00% VRVI 1, % -0.16% 0.42 #N/A N/A ,779,633,789 Din. 952,854,370 Din. 67,797,897 Din. 212,111,008 Din. 7,850,195,313 Din. 342,253,723 Din. 11,691,218,750 Din. 11,691,218,750 Din. 279,445,923 Din. 864,273,193 Din. 865,075,623 Din. 2,015,055,908 Din. 4,395,113,770 Din. 1,510,,562 Din. 103,038,002 Din. 18,900,000 Din. 164,837,845 Din. 270,902,008 Din. 1,237,065,308 Din. 325,561,493 Din. 760,003,662 Din. 766,265,442 Din. 55,369,476 Din. 2,860,000,000 Din. 148,855,774 Din. 591,409,302 Din. 683,428,223 Din. 27,214,884,766 Din. 17,243,799 Din. 753,829,590 Din. 85,580,681 Din. 1,249,347,900 Din. 2,303,967,773 Din. 475,293,365 Din. 256,974,884 Din. 277,781,403 Din. 367,430,389 Din. 1,625,687, Din. 4,768,626,953 Din. 2,409,798,340 Din. 191,119,995 Din. 245,444,489 Din. 1,025,000,854 Din. 467,010,345 Din. 914,041,260 Din. 265,030,396 Din. 233,973,312 Din. 116,261,307 Din. 313,883,789 Din. 54,976,677 Din. 177,052,994 Din. 688,916,992 Din. 148,358,002 Din. 213,463,257 Din. 2,938,204,590 Din. 4,148,223,633 Din. 2,004,914,063 Din. 3,363,477,539 Din. 86,879, Din. 380,212,280 Din. 611,188,171 Din. 965,103,699 Din. 818,940,491 Din. 803,508,972 Din. 461,295,746 Din.

4 REGION Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET Croatia 1, Slovenia Bulgaria Romania 5, , DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkans , % 10.23% 0.42% -1.07% -0.33% 17.87% 1.09% 3.95% 1.31% 12.55% CROBEX 2, 2, 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 crobex 1, 1,700 1, SBITOP sbi20 SOFIX 6,000 BET 5, 350 sofix 5,000 4, bet-c 4, , 750 DJ Stoxx Balkan dj balkan 350 maj.11 jun.11 jul.11 avg.11 sep.11 okt.11 nov.11 dec.11 jan.12 feb.12 mar.12 apr.12 maj.12 jun.12 jul.12 avg.12 sep.12 okt.12 nov.12 dec.12 jan.13 feb.13 mar.13 apr.13 maj.13 Croatian retailer Agrokor, which owns the Idea chain in Serbia, and private equity firm Mid Europa Partners, have placed binding offers for a 53.18% stake in Slovenian retailer Mercator, which also has a strong presence in Serbia, Croatia s Poslovni Dnevnik wrote, citing unofficial reports by Slovenian media. According to unnamed sources quoted by Slovenian media, the offers are significantly different from the expectations of the shareholder consortium selling the stake, which will decide this week whether to continue negotiations with both or either suitors. According to earlier reports, also eyeing the majority stake in Mercator were Polish investment fund Sowiniec FIZ and private equity firms CVC Capital Partners and Bain Capital. In March, Dragovan Milicevic, a state secretary at the Serbian trade ministry, said that a merger between Mercator and Agrokor, the second and third-biggest retailers in Serbia, respectively, would give the new company a 36% share of the local market, just behind some 37% commanded by Delhaize Serbia, the country s top retailer. (Source: Executive newsletter) The net loss of Montenegrin aluminium smelter Kombinat Aluminijuma Podgorica widened to 16.2 million euro ($21 million) in the first quarter of 2013 from 6.9 million euro a year earlier, company data indicated. Operating revenues plunged to 20.2 million euro through March from 38.6 million euro a year ago, while operating costs were cut to 29.9 million euro from 42.8 million euro, KAP said in an income statement. ()

5 WORLD Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Dow Jones Industrial 15, S&P 1, NASDAQ 3, FTSE UK 6, Dow Jones Stoxx EU Nikkei 225 Japan 14, , , , , , % 15.17% 0.00% 14.55% 0.06% 13.89% 0.10% 12.44% -0.17% 8.86% 1.20% 42.20% Dow Jones Industrial 15, 15,000 14, 14,000 13, 13,000 12, dow jones 12,000 11, 11,000 10, 10,000 S&P 1,700 1, 1, 1, s&p 1,200 1,100 1,000 3, NASDAQ Composite 7,000 FTSE 3,200 3,000 2, nasdaq 6, 6,000 dax 2, 5, 2, 2,200 5,000 2,000 4, DJ Stoxx nikkei Nikkei ,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 dj stoxx \ 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Most U.S. stocks fell, after benchmark indexes climbed to record levels last week, even as government data showed retail sales unexpectedly rose in April. Yum! Brands Inc. fell 2.1 percent after the owner of the KFC and Pizza Hut dining chains reported a slump in April sales in China. Corning Inc. climbed 0.9 percent as analysts raised their recommendation for the shares. Theravance Inc. rose 18 percent after Elan Corp. agreed to pay $1 billion for a share in royalties on new drugs. The 0.1 percent increase in U.S. retail sales followed a 0.5 percent decline in March, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.3 percent drop. A separate report showed companies in the U.S. unexpectedly held inventories in check in March as sales fell by the most in nine months, an indication orders will rise as demand picks up. Overseas, Israel s central bank cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1.5 percent, joining a wave of monetary easing spanning from the U.S. to Europe. In China, the world s second-largest economy, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly decelerated last month while industrial output trailed estimates. The Chicago Board Options Ex Volatility Index, or VIX, fell 0.3 percent to The equity volatility gauge is down 30 percent for the year. Seven out of 10 industries in the S&P retreated as phone stocks and raw-material producers declined the most, while health-care companies had the largest gains as a group. Peabody Energy Corp. slumped 4.1 percent to $20.14 for the biggest retreat in the S&P, followed by losses of more than 3.4 percent in Joy Global Inc. and U.S. Steel Corp. () European stocks declined from the highest level in almost five years as bank and airline shares retreated, overshadowing better-than-forecast retail sales data in the U.S. Commerzbank AG sank the most in two months after Handelsblatt reported the lender will sell new shares this week. Standard Chartered Plc dropped to a four-month low as Carson Block, the short seller who runs Muddy Waters LLC, said he s betting against the bank s debt. Air France-KLM Group fell 4 percent. Lonmin Plc rallied 2.6 percent after the platinum producer returned to profit in the fiscal first half. National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets. France s CAC 40 retreated 0.2 percent, the U.K. s FTSE 100 rose 0.1 percent while Germany s DAX was little d. The volume of shares changing hands in Stoxx companies was 16 percent lower than the 30-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. () Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.