DAILY REPORT May 22, 2017

Transcription

1 Member of Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department DAILY REPORT May 22, 2017 FX RATES FX rates on domestic market Currency Value Previous Change YTD EUR/RSD % 0.3% USD/RSD % 6.11% CHF/RSD % 1.79% GBP/RSD % 0.62% EUR/RSD EUR mn Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 8, mio EUR at average rate 123, 069. Turnover on FX market (right axis) Currency EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP GBP/USD USD/JPY International markets Value Previous Change YTD % -6.% % -1.7% % -.6% %.87% % -0.72% EUR/USD Economic indicators Country/ Time Region Indicator Period Previous Projection 1.02 MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value Key policy rate.00% Next decision Deposit facility 2.0% Lending facility.0% Repo operations (1 week) 2.9% RSD Interest rates NBS key rate Beonia Belibor 3M BEONIA BELIBOR1M BELIBOR3M BELIBOR 6M Interbank interest rates - Serbia Value Previous Change 2.91% 2.92% % 3.33% % 3.% % 3.7% Source: Reuters Eurozone (ECB) US (Fed) United Kingdom (BOE) Switzerland (SNB) Major interest rates Value 0.00% 1.00% 0.2% -0.7% Next decision EUR Interest rates ECB main rate Euribor 3M Interbank Interest rates - Europe -0.2 EONIA EURIBOR1M EURIBOR3M EURIBOR6M Change (bps) % % % % % % % -0.21% , EBF Sources: ECB, EBF Note: Values are with 2 days delay Libor 1M (USD) Libor 3M (USD) Libor 6M (USD) Libor 1M (CHF) Libor 3M (CHF) Libor 6M (CHF) Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Libor Interest rates Interest rate Swap Value Previous Change Value Previous Change 1.017% 1.010% EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING % -0.07% % 1.172% 0.01 EURIBOR ISDA Y FIXING 0.216% 0.171% % 1.399% EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING 0.829% 0.776% % -0.78% USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1.621% 1.668% % % USD ISDA Y FIXING 1.828% 1.833% % -0.66% USD ISDA 10Y FIXING 2.11% 2.170% Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

2 maj.16 jun.16 jul.16 avg.16 sep.16 okt.16 nov.16 dec.16 jan.17 feb.17 mar.17 apr.17 FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales present Maturity 3 month 6 month 3 week 2 year 3 year year 7 year 10 year 2 month amortizing RSD Government securities Date Value Previous % 2.79% % 2.6% % 3.9% %.6% %.00% % 10.80% %.60% % NBS key NBS key rate rate + 0.% + 0.7% y 3m 3w 6m NBS key rate y 10y Scheduled auctions for this week Date Instrument Currency Volume y T-bonds EUR 0,000,000 bps JP Morgan EMBI Serbia Maturity 3 week 2 year 3 year year 10 year EUR government securities Date Value Previous % 0.7% % 1.07% % 1.89% % 2.90% %.20%, JPMorgan Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Outlook Latest update Serbia Credit rating Serbian Eurobond yields (USD) Moody's S&P Fitch Value Previous UST spread Ba3 BB- BB- Serbia y % 1.966% 1.978% Stable Positive Stable Serbia y % 2.90% 1.273% Serbia 7y % 3.366% 1.972% Serbia 10y % 3.9% 1.998% Serbia 20y % 6.0% Serbian 10-year Eurobond Price Yield (right axis)

3 EQUITIES SERBIA Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD Belex % 10.78% Belex line 1, , % 18.28% Turnover 29,23,13 Din. 17,17,79 Din. 68.3% 239,823 12, % Source: Beogradska berza Ratios P / B P / E Belex1 0,86 1, BELEX1 Belex line ,00 0 1, maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 1,000 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 Daily change of Belex 1 members 6.78% 0.00% 0.06% 0.20% 0.27% 0.30% 1.03% 1.79% -0.08% -0.8% -0.3% TGAS KMBN AERO ALFA MTLC SJPT NIIS FITO JESV IMPL ENHL ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BE NIS AD NOVI SAD JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BE KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGR REVNOST AD NOVI SAD IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO MESSER TEHNOGAS AD SOJAPROTEIN AD Company Ticker Price RSD Turnover RSD CRVENKA FABRIKA SECERA AD Source: Belex The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Daily change Weekly change P/BV ENHL 1,96 23,072, % 6.7% NIIS 7 2,836, % -0.2% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A JESV,900 1,16, % 1.03% FITO 2, 729, % 0.00% MTLC 1,736 9, % 0.90% AERO 1, , % -0.07% KMBN 1, , %.30% RVST 1, , 0.00% % #N/A N/A IMPL 3,30 120, 1.62% 1.92% TGAS 11, , % -0.92% SJPT 00 82, % -2.1% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A CRFS 8,70 26, % 23.36% 2.79 #N/A N/A P/E ROE Market capitalization 16,33,212,832 Din. 121,79,998,000 Din. 1,93,123,100 Din. 7,128,000,000 Din. 3,1,0,000 Din.,781,891,100 Din. 31,32,79,76 Din. 9,663,10 Din. 3,16,661,0 Din. 11,03,238,000 Din. 7,7,762,000 Din.,0,83,000 Din. Serbian c-bank expects 3% GDP growth in Serbia's central bank, NBS, expects the country's economy to grow by 3.0% in 2017 on the back of labour market recovery, NBS governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said on Friday. Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.% in 2018, as structural reforms implemented by the government and improvement in business climate are encouraging economic development, Tabakovic said during the presentation of the Inflation Report for May 2017, according to a issued by NBS. "A key fact regarding economic growth is that the current account deficit was reduced owing to outstanding export results of the Serbian economy, which was also facilitated by the investments made earlier and the recovery of external demand," Tabakovic said. Also, greater product and geographical diversification of exports reduce the dependence on developments in individual markets and in turn makes Serbia s exports and economic growth sustainable. The current account deficit was reduced to.0% of GDP in 2016 and was fully covered byforeign direct investment - a pattern that is likely to continue in the coming period, which is helpful for strengthening the country s external position, thereby increasing its resilience to external shocks, she added. Last week, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) increased its projection for Serbia's 2017 economic growth to 2.9% from 2.7%, as domestic demand is rising, with investment increase supported by an improved business climate based on successful fiscal consolidation and ongoing structural reforms. Serbia's economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2018, as rising employment and wages will support a further consumption recovery, the EBRD said. The Serbian statistical office said earlier this month that the country's economy expanded by a real 1.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of Real GDP growth slowed to 2.% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2016, from 2.8% in the previous quarter. In 2016, the country's economy expanded by 2.6%. () Serbia to start lamb exports to China - Serbian agriculture minister Branislav Nedimovic said on Friday that the country plans to start exports of lamb meat to China, which would boost the entire manufacturing industry. Serbian meat processing firm Industrija mesa Djurdjevic has already received an approval to start exports of lamb meat to China, and a further eight permits will be issued in June, Nedimovic said in a video file posted on the website of public broadcaster Radio Televizija Srbije (RTS). The Asian country is ready to accept as much lamb meat imports as Serbia can produce, Nedimovic said. In the first quarter of 2017, Serbia's meat exports rose by 66.9% on the year to 19.9 million euro ($22.2 million), according to data from the country's statistical institute. (, SeeNews) Serbia sells insolvent railway firm Zelvoz for 163 mln dinars - Serbia's Bankruptcy Supervision Agency said on Friday it has agreed to sell insolvent rolling stock repairer and manufacturer Zelvoz to local company Victory Solutions for 163 million dinars ($1. million/1.3 million euro), Serbian media reported. The creditors of Zelvoz approved the sale of the company to Victory Solutions on Thursday, news agency Tanjug quoted sources from the country's Bankruptcy Supervision Agency as saying. In February, the agency said the estimated value of the assets of Zelvoz, including a rail carriage repair hall, the entire capital of four subsidiaries, spare parts and accounts receivables, stands at 1.13 billion dinars ($9.9 million/9.3 million euro). The company was sold for 1. million euro to a consortium of Romanian companies Remar and Grampet in 2007, but the privatisation deal was cancelled in 2011, as the buyer failed to meet its obligations under the contract. Zelvoz entered insolvency proceedings in July 201, with a large debt to the state and employees.?he Serbian government unsuccessfully tried to sell the assets of the company twice, in June and November 2016, as no bidders turned up. (, SeeNews) 3

4 REGION Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET DJ Stoxx Balkan 0 Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Balkans 1, , , , % 0.97% -0.11% 0.66% 0.82% -6.70% 9.3% 12.3% 19.77% 13.0% Index Country/Region Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) 2,300 CROBEX 80 SBITOP 2,200 2, , ,900 crobex sbi20 1, 60 1,00 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 SOFIX 9,000 BET 60 8,00 sofix 8,000 bet-c 0 7,00 7, ,00 0 6, maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17,00 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 DJ Stoxx Balkan 0 00 dj balkan maj.1 jul.1 sep.1 nov.1 jan.16 mar.16 maj.16 jul.16 sep.16 nov.16 jan.17 mar.17 maj.17 Romanian investment funds' net assets up 1.9% y/y at end-april - Romanian investment funds' net assets rose to 2. billion lei ($6.2 billion/.6 billion euro) at the end of April, up 1.9% on the year, the Romanian Association of Asset Managers, AAF, said on Friday. The net assets of open-end investment funds rose 1.2% at the end of April, but fell 0.% on the month to 22.1 billion lei, the association said in a statement. Local open-end investment funds registered net outflows of 99.2 million lei in April, mainly in bond funds, while net inflows were registered in diversified funds, absolute return funds, shares funds and monetary funds. Foreign open-end investment funds net assets increased by 6.7% on the year through April and by 2.1% on the month, to 2.77 billion lei. These funds account for 11.1% in the total assets of the open-end investment funds and recorded net inflows of 38.6 million lei in April. The net assets of closed funds - local and foreign, excluding SIFs and investment fund Fondul Proprietatea -increased by 6.% on the year in the first four months of the year and by 2.9% on the month to 2. million lei. These funds recorded net inflowsof 19.8 million lei in April. The Romanian Association of Asset Managers is a non-governmental professional organization of operators which brings together 79 open-ended investment funds, 20 close-ended investment funds, financial investment companies (SIFs), property restitution fund Fondul Proprietatea and depository banks. (, SeeNews) Macedonia opens 6.7 mln euro waste water treatment plant near Skopje - Macedonia has built and put into operation a waste water treatment plant worth 6.7 million euro ($7. million) near Skopje, former governing conservative VMRO-DPMNE party said. Slovenia's government financed the construction of the plant with a grant of 1. million euro, 1 million euro came from Skopje's municipal budget and.2 million euro was provided by Macedonia's government, the party said in a statement on Thursday. The new facility will purify waste water from local households before releasing it into the Vardar river, a Macedonian environment ministry official in charge of the project told SeeNews by phone. Slovenian engineering company Riko has provided the technology for the project and has hired several Macedonian subcontractors to carry out the works, the official added. The facility is part of a larger project including one more plant, located near Skopje, which awaits technical approval in order to be put into use, VMRO-DPMNE said. Riko is Slovenian engineering company, which provides technological solutions in the fields of industry, energy, environmental protection, logistics systems and construction. (, SeeNews)

5 WORLD Index Country/Region Value Dow Jones Industrial US 20, , %.27% S&P 00 US 2, , % 6.38% NASDAQ US 6, , % 13.01% DAX Germany 12, , % 10.08% FTSE UK 7, , %.9% Dow Jones Stoxx EU % 8.33% Nikkei 22 Japan 19, , % 2.9% Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) 22,000 Dow Jones Industrial 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 dow jones 16,000 1,000 1,000 13,000 12,000 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 S&P 00 2,00 2,00 2,300 2,200 2,100 s&p 2,000 1,900 1, maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 6,800 NASDAQ Composite 13,00 DAX 6,300 12,00,800 nasdaq,300,800,300 3,800 3,300 2,800 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj DJ Stoxx nikkei maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 11,00 dax 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 maj.1 jul.1 sep.1 nov.1 jan.16 mar.16 maj.16 jul.16 sep.16 nov.16 jan.17 mar.17 maj.17 23,000 Nikkei 22 21,000 19,000 17,000 dj stoxx 1,000 \ 13,000 11,000 9,000 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj Brent (USD/bbl) 1,00 Gold 1,30 0 1,300 1, ,200 1,10 1,100 \ 2 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 1,00 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 Vix Index Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 May-17 U.S. Stocks Add to Rebound as Financial, Industrial Shares Rally - U.S. stocks climbed, paring more of Wednesday s loss as investors assess the political scrutiny surrounding President Donald Trump. The S&P 00 Index rose 0.7 percent to 2,381 at 10:1 a.m. in New York, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0. percent to 20,762. Stocks rebounded yesterday, after a series of allegations involving Trump s administration turned investors cautious and sent shares to their worst drop since September on Wednesday. Industrial, energy and materials shares leading in early trading, all up at least 1%. Utility and real estate shares only group lower. 10-year Treasury up 2 bps. Bloomberg Commodity Index up 1.3%. () European Stocks Rebound From Worst Three-Day Drop Since January - European stocks rose as investors assessed the extent of recent declines that dragged equities to a two-week low. The Stoxx Europe Index added 0.6 percent at the close, trimming a weekly decline to 1 percent, the biggest five-day loss since November. The benchmark tumbled 1.7 percent in the previous three sessions as U.S. President Donald Trump faced controversies surrounding Russia, heightening political risk sentiment. Stoxx utilities outperformed most industry groups on Friday, extending their weekly advance to 1.1 percent. Carmakers, among the worst performers in the past three sessions, were among the best performers today. Equities are stabilizing following a rebound in U.S. stocks Thursday, after former FBI Director Robert Mueller was appointed as special counsel to investigate Russian efforts to influence the 2016 American election, as well as possible collusion by Trump campaign associates. Dufry AG rallied.9 percent after a regulatory filing showed Richemont acquired a percent stake in the travel retailer. () Contact Financial Market Analysis Broker-Dealer Office Snežana Topalović Snežana Spasojević Vladimir Gavović Dragomir Milin research@bancaintesa.rs Biljana Radosavljević broker@bancaintesa.rs Custody Dealing Vitomir Marić Darko Karanović Olivera Glišić Boban Todorović kastodi@bancaintesa.rs Dragan Ignja trz_sales@bancaintesa.rs Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.