DAILY REPORT January 26, 2017

Transcription

1 Member of Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department DAILY REPORT January 26, 2017 FX RATES FX rates on domestic market Currency Value Previous Change YTD EUR/RSD % -0.37% USD/RSD % 1.8% CHF/RSD % -0.0% GBP/RSD % -1.0% EUR/RSD EUR mn Central bank informed us that till 12: total amount of trading was 3,0 mio EUR at average rate 123, 937. Turnover on FX market (right axis) Currency EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP GBP/USD USD/JPY International markets Value Previous Change YTD % -2.20% % -0.19% % -2.38% % 3.1% % 0.33% EUR/USD Economic indicators Country/ Time Region Indicator Period Previous Projection 1.02 MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value Key policy rate.00% Next decision Deposit facility 2.0% Lending facility.0% Repo operations (1 week) 2.93% RSD Interest rates NBS key rate Beonia Belibor 3M BEONIA BELIBOR1M BELIBOR3M BELIBOR 6M Interbank interest rates - Serbia Value Previous Change 2.81% 2.88% % 3.3% % 3.% % 3.68% Source: Reuters Eurozone (ECB) US (Fed) United Kingdom (BOE) Switzerland (SNB) Major interest rates Value 0.00% 0.7% 0.2% -0.7% Next decision EUR Interest rates ECB main rate Euribor 3M Interbank Interest rates - Europe -0.2 EONIA EURIBOR1M EURIBOR3M EURIBOR6M Change (bps) -0.3% -0.33% % % % % % -0.22% , EBF Sources: ECB, EBF Note: Values are with 2 days delay Libor 1M (USD) Libor 3M (USD) Libor 6M (USD) Libor 1M (CHF) Libor 3M (CHF) Libor 6M (CHF) Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Libor Interest rates Interest rate Swap Value Previous Change Value Previous Change 0.776% 0.773% EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING % -0.08% % 1.032% EURIBOR ISDA Y FIXING 0.19% 0.13% % 1.36% EURIBOR ISDA Y FIXING 0.779% 0.78% % % USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1.686% 1.668% % % USD ISDA Y FIXING 1.97% 1.96% % -0.66% USD ISDA Y FIXING 2.318% 2.3% Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

2 jan.16 feb.16 mar.16 apr.16 maj.16 jun.16 jul.16 avg.16 sep.16 okt.16 nov.16 dec.16 Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales present Maturity 3 month 6 month 3 week 2 year 3 year year 7 year year 2 month amortizing RSD Government securities Date Value Previous % 2.79% % 3.2% % 3.7% %.% %.79% %.80% %.98% % NBS key NBS key rate rate + 0.% + 0.7% y 3m 3w 6m NBS key rate y y Scheduled auctions for this week Date Instrument Currency Volume 26-Jan 7y T-bonds* RSD 1,000,000,000 *reopening as of bps JP Morgan EMBI Serbia Maturity 3 week 2 year 3 year year year EUR government securities Date Value Previous % 0.78% % 1.08% % 1.6% % 3.% %.0%, JPMorgan 20 2 Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Outlook Latest update Serbia Credit rating Serbian Eurobond yields (USD) Moody's S&P Fitch Value Previous UST spread B1 BB- BB- Serbia y % 2.268% 1.632% Positive Positive Stable Serbia y % 2.99% 1.836% Serbia 7y % 3.828% 2.39% Serbia y %.036% 2.2% Serbia 20y % 6.93% Serbian -year Eurobond Price Yield (right axis)

3 EQUITIES SERBIA Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD Belex %.67% Belex line 1,3.28 1, % 1.16% Turnover 32,086,977 Din. 38,218,193 Din % 28,881 2,889, % Source: Beogradska berza Ratios P / B P / E Belex1 0,82 13, BELEX1 Belex line , 60 1,00 0 1, ,000 Daily change of Belex 1 members 1.39% 1.78% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% -0.82% -0.% -1.92% ENHL TGAS NIIS AERO MTLC FITO ALFA SJPT JESV KMBN AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BE ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BE MESSER TEHNOGAS AD ENERGOPROJEKT OPREMA AD AUTOVENTIL AD UZICE CACANSKA BANKA AD TRGOPROMET AD SUBOTICA NIS AD NOVI SAD STARI TAMIS AD PANCEVO IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO UKRAS AD NOVI PAZAR Company Ticker Price RSD Turnover RSD TERMOVENT SC LIVNICA CELIKA Source: Belex The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Daily change Weekly change P/BV AERO 1,0 18,639, % -0.60% ENHL 1,279 6,182, % -.78% TGAS 12,900 2,80, % -.2% ENOP, , % 6.18% AVEN ,376.69% 0.00% CCNB 8,000 8, % 2.7% 0.31 #N/A N/A -.68 TRGOM 00 81,00 0.9% 0.00% NIIS 70 6,80-0.3% -1.32% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A STTM 3,000 77, % 0.00% IMPL 2,70 16,016 0.% 0.79% UKNP 0 1, % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A TLVC 1,21, % -9.8% P/E ROE Market capitalization 37,718,28,000 Din. 13,981,122,68 Din. 13,372,888,200 Din. 1,683,876, Din. 127,78,688 Din. 1,,86,000 Din. 9,76,000 Din. 120,66,696,000 Din. 1,187,,000 Din. 2,7,9,08 Din. 29,98,0 Din. 92,12,9 Din. France-based Coface upgrades country risk assessment for Serbia from high-risk C to significant-risk B - Francebased credit insurance and rating group Coface has upgraded its country risk assessment for Serbia from high-risk C to significant-risk B, according to reports. This is good news for Serbia given that B is a stable rating of the country and its business climate, said Djordje Zivanovic, Coface s country manager for Serbia and Montenegro, adding that the upgrade sends a strong positive signal for foreign direct investment. The reasons for upgrade cited by Coface include improvements in the business environment and GDP growth, according to reports. (Source: Executive Newsletter) Serbia ranks 72nd among 176 countries on Transparency International s Corruption Perceptions Index 2017, no significant change in ranking since 2008, Transparency Serbia says - Serbia ranks 72nd on Transparency International s Corruption Perceptions Index 2017, which covers 176 countries and territories, compared with the 71st spot among 17 countries and territories a year earlier, according to Transparency Serbia (TS), local media reported yesterday. Serbia remains among the nations with high levels of corruption, TS said, adding that its ranking has not changed significantly since 2008, TS noted. (Source: Executive Newsletter) MK Group, Matijevic drop plans to jointly bid for state-owned agribusiness PKB faced with competition from UAE, China, Matijevic owner tells Blic - Miodrag Kostic, owner of agribusiness-to-banking company MK Group, and Petar Matijevic, who owns agribusiness and meatpacker Matijevic, have abandoned plans to jointly bid for state-owned agribusiness Poljoprivredna Korporacija Beograd (PKS), Blic wrote yesterday. Matijevic told the daily that he and Kostic could not compete with large foreign suitors, such as Al Dahra from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Chinese companies eyeing PKB. Last week, the Economy Ministry invited letters of interest in the privatization PKB and four related entities, according to earlier reports. (Source: Executive Newsletter) 3

4 REGION Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET DJ Stoxx Balkan 0 Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Balkans 2, , , , % -0.19% 0.99% 1.8% -0.03%.66% 2.96%.2%.2% 1.73% Index Country/Region Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) 2,200 CROBEX 80 SBITOP 2, ,000 1,900 crobex sbi20 1,700 1, 60 1,00 60 SOFIX 8,000 BET 7,00 0 sofix 7,000 bet-c 00 6,00 0 6,000 00,00 DJ Stoxx Balkan 0 00 dj balkan 00 0 jan.1 mar.1 maj.1 jul.1 sep.1 nov.1 jan.16 mar.16 maj.16 jul.16 sep.16 nov.16 jan.17 Croat Agrokor Seeks Cooperation With Alibaba - There is a possibility of cooperation in several projects, Zagreb-based Vecernji List reports, citing co. spokeswoman Anja Linic. (, SeeNews) Montenegro s trade gap widens in Montenegro s trade deficit increased by 13.7% last year, reaching billion euro ($1.861 billion), the statistical office said on Wednesday. Exports increased by an annual 2.7% to 32.8 million euro in 2016, while imports grew by 11.8% to 2.1 billion euro, the statistical office said in a statement. In December alone, Montenegro's trade gap widened by 12.6% on the year, reaching 11 million euro. (, SeeNews)

5 WORLD Index Country/Region Value Dow Jones Industrial US 20, , % 1.% S&P 00 US 2, , % 2.66% NASDAQ US,66.3, %.08% DAX Germany 11, , % 2.83% FTSE UK 7,16.3 7, % 0.% Dow Jones Stoxx EU % 1.3% Nikkei 22 Japan 19, , % -0.% Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) Dow Jones Industrial 20,00 20,000 19,00 19,000 18,00 18,000 17,00 17,000 16,00 dow jones 16,000 1,00 1,000 1,00 1,000 13,00 13,000 12,00 12,000 NASDAQ Composite,800,,00,200,000 nasdaq,800,,00,200,000 3,800 3, 3,00 3,200 3,000 2, DJ Stoxx 260 nikkei S&P 00 2,00 2,0 2,200 2,0 s&p 2,000 1,900 1,700 1, DAX 13,00 12,00 11,00 dax,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 jan.1 mar.1 maj.1 jul.1 sep.1 nov.1 jan.16 mar.16 maj.16 jul.16 sep.16 nov.16 jan.17 23,000 Nikkei 22 21,000 19,000 17,000 dj stoxx 1,000 \ 13,000 11,000 9, Brent (USD/bbl) 1,00 Gold 1, 0 1,0 1, ,200 1, 1,0 \ 2 jan.16 apr.16 jul.16 okt.16 1,00 jan.16 apr.16 jul.16 okt.16 Vix Index Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-17 U.S. Stocks Advance on Bank Stock Rally as Dow Surpasses 20,000 - U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, carrying forward a global equity rally that s propelled by expectations of stronger economic growth and government spending by President Donald Trump s administration. The S&P 00 advanced 0.8 percent to 2, at p.m. in New York after adding 0.7 percent on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has hovered below the 20,000 mark since mid-december without crossing it, broke through the threshold with a 0.8 percent advance to 20, Financial shares lead market, up 1.7% with gains of 3.% in Wells Fargo and a 2.6% rally in Morgan Stanley. Tech stocks rose 1.1%, advancing for the fourth straight session as Seagate Technology surged 1% and chip-makers advanced. In the Dow, Boeing and Caterpillar led an advance that lifted all but seven stocks. VIX down 2.% to.8, the lowest since July 201. () Banks Lift Europe Stocks to Highest Since 1 as Santander Gains - European equities joined a global rally, jumping the most since November, on optimism about corporate earnings. The Stoxx Europe Index rose 1.3 percent to close at a 13-month high. Banks and insurers led gains as government-bond yields climbed and Banco Santander SA reported better-thanestimated quarterly profits. Stocks in Asia rallied, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through the 20,000 threshold in the U.S. Santander contributed the most to advances in lenders, climbing percent for its biggest rise since Dec. 8. Novartis AG added 2. percent after proposing a $ billion share buyback and saying it s considering separating its embattled eyecare division. Logitech International SA was the biggest gainer among Stoxx shares, surging 16 percent as its third-quarter sales beat the highest analyst estimates. A rally in European shares had lost momentum this month. After boosting equities following Donald Trump s election as U.S. president on bets of faster economic growth, investors have been unwinding some of those positions in recent sessions as he emphasized protectionist policies. () Contact Financial Market Analysis Broker-Dealer Office Olivera Glišić Snežana Spasojević Vladimir Gavović Dragomir Milin research@bancaintesa.rs broker@bancaintesa.rs Custody Dealing Vitomir Marić Darko Karanović Biljana Radosavljević Nikola Ostojić kastodi@bancaintesa.rs Dragan Ignja trz_sales@bancaintesa.rs Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.