DAILY REPORT February 5, 2015

Transcription

1 Member of Feb-1 4-Feb-1 Feb-1 Feb-1 Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department DAILY REPORT February, 21 FX RATES 124 EUR/RSD EUR mn 14 Currency EUR/RSD USD/RSD CHF/RSD GBP/RSD FX rates on domestic market Value Previous Change YTD % -.89% % -8.12% % -1.68% % -.61% Turnover on IFEM (right axis) Central bank informed us that till 12:3 total amount of trading was 43,3 mil EUR at average rate 121, 919. Currency EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP GBP/USD USD/JPY International markets Value Previous Change YTD % 6.22% % 12.66% % 2.4% % 2.9% % 3.76% EUR/USD EURUSD indicator Time Country/ Region Indicator Period Previous Projection 14:3 US Trade balance December -$39B -$38B 1.1 MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value Key policy rate 8.% Next decision Deposit facility.% Lending facility 1.% Repo operations (1 week).94% RSD Interest rates NBS key rate Belibor 3M Beonia (right axis) Interbank interest rates - Serbia BEONIA BELIBOR1M BELIBOR3M BELIBOR 6M Value Previous Change 6.93% 6.84%.9 8.1% 8.8% % 8.39%.3 8.6% 8.62% Source: Reuters Eurozone (ECB) US (Fed) United Kingdom (BOE) Switzerland (SNB) Major interest rates Value.%.2%.% -.7% Next decision EUR Interest rates ECB main rate Euribor 3M..4.3 EONIA EURIBOR1M EURIBOR3M EURIBOR6M Interbank Interest rates - Europe Change (bps) -.37% -.34% -.3.1%.1%..%.%..132%.132%..2.1, EBF Sources: ECB, EBF Note: Values are with 2 days delay Libor 1M (USD) Libor 3M (USD) Libor 6M (USD) Libor 1M (CHF) Libor 3M (CHF) Libor 6M (CHF) Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Libor Interest rates Interest rate Swap Value Previous Change Value Previous Change.174%.171%.2 EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING.19%.176%.14.2%.2%. EURIBOR ISDA Y FIXING.34%.38% %.39%.2 EURIBOR ISDA 1Y FIXING.674%.693% % -.914%.1 USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1.21%.996% % -.869%. USD ISDA Y FIXING 1.411% 1.37% % -.76%. USD ISDA 1Y FIXING 1.873% 1.827%.46 Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

2 feb.14 mar.14 apr.14 maj.14 jun.14 jul.14 avg.14 sep.14 okt.14 nov.14 dec.14 jan.1 1-Feb-13 1-Apr-13 1-Jun-13 1-Aug-13 1-Oct-13 1-Dec Feb-1 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales 213- present 1. Maturity 3 month 6 month 3 week 2 year 3 year year 7 year 1 year 24 month amortizing RSD Government securities Date Value Previous % 7.% % 7.24% % 8.3% % 9.% % 1.% % 1.8% % 11.99% %.% NBS key NBS key rate rate + 1.3% + 1.3% 3y 3m 3w 6m NBS key rate y 1y Scheduled auctions for this week Date Instrument Currency Volume Y T-bills 1% cupon RSD,,, montht-bills RSD 3,,, bps JP Morgan EMBI Serbia Source: Belex A21 A216 Foreign currency savings bonds Price Previous Prinos % % Maturity 3 week 2 year 3 year year 1 year EUR government securities 2 Date Value Previous % 2.8% % 3.8% % 4.47% %.% %, JPMorgan Sources: Bloomberg, Banca Intesa Outlook Latest update Serbia Credit rating Serbian Eurobond yields (USD) Moody's S&P Fitch Value Previous UST spread B1 BB- B+ Serbia y % 3.761% 3.37% Negative Negative Stable Serbia y % 4.64% 3.28% Serbia 7y % 4.239% 3.2% Serbia 1y % 4.78% 3.149% Serbia 2y % 6.48% Serbian 1-year Eurobond Price Yield (right axis)

3 EQUTIES SERBIA Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD Belex % -.87% Belex line 1, , %.19% Turnover 49,129,142 Din. 43,923,98 Din. 11.8% 43,69 37, % Source: Beogradska berza Ratios P / B P / E Belex1,74 6,67 8 BELEX1 1,6 Belex line 7 1,4 6 1,2 1, feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 6 feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 Daily change of Belex 1 members 1.3%.%.%.%.%.%.18%.49% -.31% -.11% -1.26% -.94% -2.33% SJPT KMBN MTLC AERO ENHL GMON TGAS FITO JESV ALFA IMLK AIKB NIIS Company Ticker Price RSD Turnover Daily Weekly P/BV P/E ROE RSD change change NIS AD NOVI SAD NIIS ,, % 2.24% IMLEK AD ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BE AIK BANKA AD IMLK,7 14,472,396.17% -8.8% ENHL 914 1,413, %.44% AIKB 1, ,96.48%.48% AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO AERO 96 1,72 -.3% -.7% , SOJAPROTEIN AD KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGR TRGOPROMET AD SUBOTICA VODA VRNJCI AD IRITEL AD BEOGRAD DAVID PAJIC DAKA AD BEOGRAD ZLATARPLAST AD NOVA VAROS Source: Belex The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day SJPT 63 32,4-2.24% 3.32%.88 #N/A N/A KMBN 2,2 132, -1.16% -1.16% TRGOM 111,.% 48.33% VDAV 3, 9, -6.7% -6.7% IRTL 7,.% 1.19% DVDP 9 46,.%.% ZLTP 1,4 28, 36.99% 31.1% Market capitalization 119,36,212,8 Din. 44,262,897,99 Din. 9,991,2,888 Din. 14,726,49,768 Din. 32,917,776, Din. 9,384,18,12 Din. 36,999,3,2 Din. 676,161, Din. 41,74, Din. 14,2, Din. 23,9,1 Din. 88,919,6 Din. Deputu PM expects talks with US-based steel company Esmark on takeover of Smederevo steel maker to be completed next week - Deputy Prime Minister Rasim Ljajic told N1 yesterday that he expects talks with the US-based steel company Esmark on the privatization of steel maker Zelezara Smederevo to be completed next week, local media reported. There are several stumbling blocks in the negotiations, with Serbia insisting on guarantees concerning production and jobs and Esmark seeking debt write-off and subsidies, he said, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU are also indirectly involved in the process. The talks were launched after the government accepted Esmark Europe s bid for 8.1% of Zelezara last month. Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has said that Serbia will assume the steel maker s debts prior to takeover by the future strategic partner. Serbia recently asked the EU for an extension of a deadline to stop providing state aid to Zelezara, which expired on February 1. The Smederevo steel maker was a major Serbian exporter until early 212, when the state bought it back from U.S. Steel for a token USD 1, after which Zelezara often suspended production despite receiving state aid. (Source: Executiv newsletter) Bids from Chinese firms for Corridor 11 highway concession deals to be opened today, concessions to be awarded by April 3 at latest, Beta told at construction ministry - Bids from Chinese companies for building and managing certain portions of the so-called Corridor 11 highway in Serbia will be opened today, Beta was told at the Construction, Transportation, and Infrastructure Ministry. The concessions will be awarded by March 31, or by April 3 at the latest if additional should be necessary, the news agency was told at the ministry.the bidding procedure concerns building and maintaining a 17.6-kilometer stretch connecting Surcin and Obrenovac and a 3.9-kilometer portion between Preljina and Pozega, as well as managing, maintaining, and operating Corridor 11 portions between Obrenovac and Preljina totaling 13 kilometers in length, Beta recalled. The two Chinese companies that qualified for the bidding are China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and Shandong Hi-Speed Group (SDHS), Beta recalled, adding that SDHS is already building the Obrenovac-Ub and Lajkovac-Ljig highway sections, financed through a USD million loan from the Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank). In mid-december, a consortium comprising Serbian construction companies Putevi Uzice and Planum completed a 12.-kilometer stretch linking Ub and Lajkovac on Corridor 11. Azerbaijan s AzVirt is building the Ljig-Preljina section of the highway, which is financed through a loan worth EUR 38 million from the Azerbaijani government, Beta recalled, adding that this stretch is planned for completion by August 2 this year. (Source: Executive newsletter) USAID presents project to introduce legal framework governing micro-finance institutions in Serbia, estimates EUR 869 million inflow over four years - The US Agency for International Development (USAID) yesterday held a presentation of a project to introduce a legal framework governing micro-finance institutions, Beta reported. According to the USAID s estimates, this could bring EUR 869 million cumulated inflow of micro-finance funds into the Serbian economy over four years, helping create 23, jobs and save EUR 149 million in the state budget annually. These non-deposit-taking non-bank financial institutions include leasing and factoring institutions, participants in the presentation said, adding that talks between the Finance Ministry and the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) on the introduction of a legal framework to govern micro-finance institutions are in a final stage. The fact that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have no sources of financing from financial institutions other than banks is the biggest obstacle to SME development in Serbia, according to the presentation. SMEs in Serbia create 6.3% of all jobs in Serbia, accounting for.2% of the country s GDP, according to the presentation. Serbia is the only country in the region where only bank institutions are offering lending services, participants noted. The leasing sector in Serbia provides services to only 1% of SMEs, the participants said, and they called for easing leasing regulations in Serbia, noting that leasing is the only source of financing in Serbia with interest subject to value-added tax (VAT). SMEs in Serbia use authorized current account overdrafts as the main source of financing, while families and friends finance.% of SMEs, according to the presentation. Serbia has 1 registered factoring firms, while factoring services are also provided by the Export Credit and Insurance Agency (AOFI) and around 1 commercial banks, according to the presentation. (Source: Executive newsletter) 3

4 REGION Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET DJ Stoxx Balkan Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Balkans 1, , , , % -.1%.14%.% -.36%.6% -.97% -3.84% -.27% -.18% Index Country/Region Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) 2,1 CROBEX 2, 1,9 crobex 1,8 1,7 1,6 1, feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 6 SOFIX 6 sofix feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb sbi feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 7, SBITOP BET 7, 6, bet-c 6,,, 4, 4, 3, feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 7 DJ Stoxx Balkan 6 dj balkan feb.13 apr.13 jun.13 avg.13 okt.13 dec.13 feb.14 apr.14 jun.14 avg.14 okt.14 dec.14 feb.1 Bulgaria May Seek EU Aid for Cleanup Works as Floods Kill Two - Floods in Bulgaria killed at least two people and damaged roads, houses and dams, prompting government officials to say the Balkan country may seek aid from the European Union. A father and his nine-year-old son drowned Feb. 1 near the southwestern town of Sandanski, some 16 kilometers (1 miles) south of the capital, Valentin Krastev, a spokesman at the Interior Ministry s Civil Protection Directorate, said by phone on Tuesday. Police are searching for a couple whose car plunged into a river in southern Bulgaria and a 31-year-old woman who went missing near the southwestern town of Petrich, he said. This is a disaster, Regional Development and Public Works Minister Lilyana Pavlova told BTV television in an interview Tuesday. We will seek aid from the European Union Solidarity Fund. Pavlova said the floods, which have been gripping the country for the last three days, caused damages to roads worth at least 22 million lev ($12.8 million) in the past 24 hours alone. There was no immediate estimate of total damages. About 3 people were evacuated from villages in eastern Bulgaria on Tuesday, the Interior Ministry said in a statement on its website. Floods damaged water pipes and power substations, leaving towns and villages in southern Bulgaria without fresh water and electricity, according to the ministry. () Romania Flags More Easing After Cutting Main Rate to Record - Romania reduced borrowing costs to a record and said more cuts are possible as European Central Bank bond-buying frees up space for policy makers battling slowing inflation. The benchmark interest rate was lowered to 2.2 percent from 2. percent, the central bank said Wednesday in an ed statement. Ten of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the move, while two saw no change. The bank also trimmed its 21 inflation forecast to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent, saying price growth will accelerate to 2.4 percent next year. I can t deny there s room for more rate cuts if we look at the current inflation forecast and expectations, Governor Mugur Isarescu told reporters in Bucharest after the decision. Preliminary data show economic growth remained on a positive trend and inflation will be close to zero in February. Rate setters in the European Union s second-poorest member trimmed borrowing costs for a fifth meeting with consumer-price growth decelerating throughout the last quarter of 214 on falling energy costs. ECB purchases of sovereign debt, designed to help ward off deflation and boost economic growth, are prompting calls for interest-rate cuts across eastern Europe. () 4

5 WORLD Index Country/Region Value Dow Jones Industrial US 17, , % -.84% S&P US 2,41.1 2, % -.84% NASDAQ US 4, , % -.41% FTSE UK 6,86.2 6, % 4.48% Dow Jones Stoxx 6 EU % 8.63% Nikkei 22 Japan 17, , % 1.31% Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) Dow Jones Industrial 18, 18, 17, 17, 16, 16, 1, dow jones 1, 14, 14, 13, 13, 12, 12, feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1, NASDAQ Composite 4,8 4,6 4,4 nasdaq 4,2 4, 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3, 2,8 feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 38 DJ Stoxx nikkei feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 S&P 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 s&p 1,7 1,6 1, 1,4 1,3 feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 7, dax 6, 6,, feb.13 apr.13 jun.13 avg.13 okt.13 dec.13 feb.14 apr.14 jun.14 avg.14 okt.14 dec.14 feb.1 19, FTSE Nikkei 22 18, 17, 16, 1, dj stoxx 14, \ 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, feb.13 maj.13 avg.13 nov.13 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 Brent (USD/bbl) feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 Gold 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,2 \ 1,2 1,1 1,1 feb.14 maj.14 avg.14 nov.14 feb.1 3 Vix Index U.S. Stocks, Euro Slip as ECB Tightens Greek Terms; Oil Declines - U.S. stocks fell, with benchmark indexes erasing earlier gains, while the euro extended losses after the European Central Bank tightened the terms of Greece s bailout. Oil resumed its slump amid an increase in American inventories. The Standard & Poor s Index was down.4 percent by 4 p.m. in New York, snapping a two-day rally and reversing a.2 percent advance. Energy producers and health-care stocks led declines, while Walt Disney Co. surged to a record on better-thanexpected earnings. West Texas Intermediate crude retreated 8.7 percent to $48.4 a barrel, after rallying 19 percent in the previous four days. The euro dropped 1.2 percent to $ FTSE China A Index futures jumped.1 percent after China s central bank cut the reserve ratio for lenders. The ECB said it will no longer suspend its own collateral rules for Greek government debt, citing doubt over the new government s commitment to previous reform pledges. The decision, which came hours after Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis met with ECB President Mario Draghi, will force Greek lenders to seek funding from their own central bank at less-advantageous rates than was offered by the ECB. Concern over the global oil glut re-emerged as data showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose to the highest level since at least This happened sooner than expected and the market s a little shocked, Michael Block, chief equity strategist at Rhino Trading Partners LLC in New York, said by . This is the ECB turning the screws, not going to let Greek banks die, but the clock is ticking. People thought the ECB would do this at the end of the month and that perhaps before then, a deal could be struck. I guess not. () European Stocks Rise Third Day as Drugmakers, Greek Shares Gain - European stocks climbed for a third day, as an increase in health-care shares and Greek companies outweighed a drop in energy producers. The Stoxx Europe 6 Index rose. percent to at the close of trading, reversing losses of as much as.3 percent. It extended gains earlier after a report showed U.S. service industries expanded at a faster pace than forecast. Drugmakers were among the biggest contributors to the advance, with Roche Holding AG and Novartis AG up more than 2 percent, while oil-and-gas shares fell.9 percent as a group. Greece s ASE Index climbed.9 percent, after rising 2.8 percent, and reversing losses of as much as 2.6 percent. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his finance minister are visiting European leaders to negotiate new terms on repaying Greece s debt. German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that a diplomatic offensive to ease bailout-aid requirements is failing to win over converts. At the moment there are three factors impacting the market sentiment: Greece, the oil market and then the fourthquarter reports of companies, said Christian Zogg, who manages the equivalent of about $1 billion as head of equity and fixed income at LLB Asset Management AG in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. The market in general would like to see some kind of agreement -- that Greece gets more time to pay back. Greek lenders rallied, with Piraeus Bank SA and Eurobank Ergasias SA jumping at least 11 percent. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he had very fruitful talks over the European Central Bank s support of the Greek banking system after he met with President Mario Draghi in Frankfurt. () Contact Financial Market Analysis Unit Broker-Dealer Unit Olivera Glišić Snežana Spasojević Vladimir Gavović Dragomir Milin research@bancaintesa.rs broker@bancaintesa.rs Custody Unit Dealing Unit Vitomir Marić Darko Karanović Biljana Radosavljević Nikola Ostojić kastodi@bancaintesa.rs Dragan Ignja trz_sales@bancaintesa.rs Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. 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