DAILY REPORT February 10, 2017

Transcription

1 Member of Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department DAILY REPORT February, 2017 FX RATES FX rates on domestic market Currency Value Previous Change YTD EUR/RSD % -0.39% USD/RSD % 0.69% CHF/RSD % -1.0% GBP/RSD % -1.11% EUR/RSD EUR mn Central bank informed us that till 12: total amount of trading was 6, mio EUR at average rate 123, 962. Turnover on FX market (right axis) Currency EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP GBP/USD USD/JPY International markets Value Previous Change YTD % -1.72% % 0.7% % -1.63% %.% % 0.0% EUR/USD Economic indicators Time Country/ Region Indicator Period Previous Projection 16:00 USA U.Michigan confidence Feb P MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value Key policy rate.00% Next decision Deposit facility 2.0% Lending facility.0% Repo operations (1 week) 2.90% RSD Interest rates NBS key rate Beonia Belibor 3M Interbank interest rates - Serbia BEONIA BELIBOR1M BELIBOR3M BELIBOR 6M Value Previous Change 2.77% 2.82% % 3.3% % 3.6% % 3.68% Source: Reuters Eurozone (ECB) US (Fed) United Kingdom (BOE) Switzerland (SNB) Major interest rates Value 0.00% 0.7% 0.2% -0.7% Next decision EUR Interest rates ECB main rate Euribor 3M Interbank Interest rates - Europe -0.2 EONIA EURIBOR1M EURIBOR3M EURIBOR6M Change (bps) -0.33% -0.30% % % % % % -0.22% , EBF Sources: ECB, EBF Note: Values are with 2 days delay Libor 1M (USD) Libor 3M (USD) Libor 6M (USD) Libor 1M (CHF) Libor 3M (CHF) Libor 6M (CHF) Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Libor Interest rates Interest rate Swap Value Previous Change Value Previous Change 0.772% 0.773% EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING -0.06% % % 1.038% EURIBOR ISDA Y FIXING 0.18% 0.11% % 1.3% EURIBOR ISDA Y FIXING 0.787% 0.77% % % USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1.679% 1.682% % % USD ISDA Y FIXING 1.898% 1.93% % % USD ISDA Y FIXING 2.266% 2.338% Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

2 feb.16 mar.16 apr.16 maj.16 jun.16 jul.16 avg.16 sep.16 okt.16 nov.16 dec.16 jan.17 FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales present Maturity 3 month 6 month 3 week 2 year 3 year year 7 year year 2 month amortizing RSD Government securities Date Value Previous % 2.79% % 3.2% % 3.9% %.% %.79% %.80% %.6% % NBS key NBS key rate rate + 0.% + 0.7% y 3m 3w 6m NBS key rate y y Scheduled auctions for this week Date Instrument Currency Volume 7-Feb 3w T-bills * RSD,000,000,000 * reopening has been planned bps JP Morgan EMBI Serbia Maturity 3 week 2 year 3 year year year EUR government securities Date Value Previous % 0.78% % 1.08% % 1.6% % 3.% %.0%, JPMorgan 20 2 Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Outlook Latest update Serbia Credit rating Serbian Eurobond yields (USD) Moody's S&P Fitch Value Previous UST spread B1 BB- BB- Serbia y % 2.17% 2.163% Positive Positive Stable Serbia y % 2.902% 1.73% Serbia 7y % 3.691% 2.237% Serbia y %.019% 2.286% Serbia 20y % 6.66% Serbian -year Eurobond Price Yield (right axis)

3 EQUITIES SERBIA Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD Belex %.73% Belex line 1, , % 1.32% Turnover 18,672,686 Din. 219,212,23 Din % 10,73 1,769, % Source: Beogradska berza Ratios P / B P / E Belex1 0,82 13,1 800 BELEX1 Belex line ,00 0 1, feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 1,000 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 Daily change of Belex 1 members 3.17% 3.73% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.8% -0.13% -3.% ALFA MTLC NIIS KMBN SJPT TGAS FITO JESV AERO ENHL AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BE Source: Belex The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Company Ticker Price RSD Turnover RSD JUBMES BANKA AD BEOGRAD METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC NIS AD NOVI SAD IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO PODUNAVLJE AD CELAREVO ALFA PLAM AD VRANJE ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BE STUP VRSAC AD VRSAC AUTOVENTIL AD UZICE LOZNICAELEKTRO AD LOZNICA MESSER TEHNOGAS AD Daily change Weekly change P/BV AERO 1,10,137, % -0.08% JMBN,123 3,68, % -0.07% 0.2 #N/A N/A MTLC 1,60 2,623,00-0.8% -6.2% NIIS 77 2,13,6-0.13% 0.3% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A IMPL 2,991 2,6,638.% 6.62% PDCL, , % -1.61% ALFA 33,789 61, % -3.20% ENHL 1,20 62, % -3.07% STUP 6,200 23, 0.00% 0.00% AVEN , % 0.00% LOEL ,0 1.87% 1.87% TGAS 13,000 1, % 0.72% P/E ROE Market capitalization 39,089,89,000 Din. 1,188,78,90 Din. 3,366,000,000 Din. 121,806,118,800 Din. 2,818,380,17 Din. 969,912,8 Din.,906,722,668 Din. 13,66,11,000 Din. 22,98, Din. 127,78,688 Din.,231,900 Din. 13,76,,000 Din. Serbian government holds th session with representatives of World Bank, EU Delegation - The Serbian government yesterday held its fourth session with representatives of the World Bank and the EU Delegation to Serbia, according to a news release on the government s website. Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic thanked the World Bank s representatives for the assistance the international finance institution is providing to the government in meeting goals, noting that even though much has been achieved, there is still a lot to be done by the government. The session was attended by World Bank Country Director for the Western Balkans Ellen Goldstein and Head of the EU Delegation to Serbia Michael Davenport, as well as World Bank consultants William Isaacs and Ray Shostak. (Source: Executive Newsletter) Financial leasing worth EUR 337 million in 2016, ALCS says - The value of new financial leasing in Serbia in 2016 was EUR 337 million, which was EUR 0 million more compared with the year before, according to the Association of Leasing Companies in Serbia (ALCS), local media reported yesterday. Growth was seen in all segments, while the most dominant segment was commercial, freight, and other vehicle leasing, with EUR 27 million, followed by passenger vehicle financing, EUR 12 million, and machinery and equipment financing, EUR 6 million. ALCS Secretary General Teodora Milenkovic noted that the growth of economic activity in Serbia was the main factor for stronger performance of leasing companies last year. (Source: Executive Newsletter) Head of IMF mission for Serbia James Roaf to attend Kopaonik Business Forum for first time - James Roaf, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission for Serbia, will for the first time take part in the annual Kopaonik Business Forum, due to be held from March 7 to 9, local media reported yesterday. According to a draft conference agenda, Roaf will be one of the keynote speakers. The forum entitled Reforms Agenda for Serbia: What Can We Learn From the Past and the Way Forward will also be attended by World Bank Country Director for the Western Balkans Ellen Goldstein, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Director for Serbia Daniel Berg, EBRD Regional head for Western Balkans Holger Muent, and International Finance Corporation (IFC) Regional Manager for the Western Balkans Thomas Lubeck, among others. (Source: Executive Newsletter) 3

4 REGION Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET DJ Stoxx Balkan 0 Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Balkans 2, , , , % -0.8% -0.08% 0.29% 0.7% 9.09%.% 2.8% 7.66% 3.2% Index Country/Region Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) 2,0 CROBEX 80 SBITOP 2,200 2, , ,900 crobex sbi , ,00 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb SOFIX 8,000 BET 7,00 0 sofix 7,000 bet-c 00 6,00 0 6, feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17,00 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 DJ Stoxx Balkan 0 00 dj balkan 00 0 feb.1 apr.1 jun.1 avg.1 okt.1 dec.1 feb.16 apr.16 jun.16 avg.16 okt.16 dec.16 feb.17 Romania's real net wage growth slows in December - Romania's real average net monthly wage grew by a real 12% year-on-year in December, after it increased by 1% in the previous month, the statistical office, INS, said on Thursday. On a monthly comparison basis, net wages rose by a real 8.1% in December, following a 2.9% increase in November, the National Institute of Statistics said in a monthly labour market report. (, SeeNews) Romania central bank cuts 2017 inflation forecast, sees key rate changed in Romania's central bank, BNR, said on Thursday it lowered its 2017 inflation forecast to 1.7% from previously projected 2.1% and said that that it expects changes in its key rate by the of next year. The lowering of the inflation forecast reflected the effect from the elimination of 2 fees and charges by the government, BNR said in a quarterly inflation report. (, SeeNews)

5 WORLD Index Country/Region Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD (%) Dow Jones Industrial US 20, , % 2.07% S&P 00 US 2,7.87 2, % 3.08% NASDAQ US,71.18, % 6.17% DAX Germany 11, , % 1.1% FTSE UK 7, , % 1.21% Dow Jones Stoxx EU % 1.9% Nikkei 22 Japan 18, , % -1.08% Dow Jones Industrial 21,000 20,00 20,000 19,00 19,000 18,00 18,000 17,00 17,000 16,00 dow jones 16,000 1,00 1,000 1,00 1,000 13,00 13,000 12,00 12,000 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 6,000,800,,00,200,000,800,,00,200,000 3,800 3, 3,00 NASDAQ Composite nasdaq 3,200 3,000 2,800 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb DJ Stoxx 260 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 nikkei S&P 00 2,00 2,0 2,200 2,0 s&p 2,000 1,900 1,700 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 DAX 13,00 12,00 11,00 dax,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 feb.1 apr.1 jun.1 avg.1 okt.1 dec.1 feb.16 apr.16 jun.16 avg.16 okt.16 dec.16 feb.17 23,000 Nikkei 22 21,000 19,000 17,000 dj stoxx 1,000 \ 13,000 11,000 9,000 feb.1 maj.1 avg.1 nov.1 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb Brent (USD/bbl) 1,00 Gold 1,30 0 1,0 1, ,200 1,10 1,0 \ 2 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 1,00 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 Vix Index Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 U.S. Stocks Set Records After Jobs Data as Banks, Energy Rally - U.S. stocks advanced to new highs after weekly applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined and investors assessed earnings from Coca-Cola Co. and Kellogg Co. to Twitter Inc. The S&P 00 Index rose 0.6 percent to 2,7.87 at p.m., while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 118 points to 20,172. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 0 both closed at records. Energy shares up 0.9% for first advance in four sessions as oil climbed 1.% for second day of gains. Financial stocks higher for first gain this week, adding 1.% with all 17 companies in S&P 00 Banks index rallying; Regions Financial and Citizens Financial leading pack, up at least 2.%. Utility and raw-materials shares only groups down as the -year. Treasury yield added 6 bp to 2.0% from 2.3%. VIX down.8% to.9. () European Stocks Rise to Two-Week High on Banks, Oil Companies - European stocks rose for a third session in a broad rally, with the banking sector bouncing back after Societe Generale SA s earnings beat estimates and oil stocks advancing. The Stoxx Europe Index climbed 0.8 percent to end the session at the highest since Jan. 26. A gauge for the banking sector extended its gains to 1.3 percent after U.S. President Donald Trump promised industry executives he d roll back regulations and announce a phenomenal tax plan. The index is still down 3.1 percent from its 2017 peak close on Jan. 26, dragged lower by simmering worries over Europe s political risks. () Contact Financial Market Analysis Broker-Dealer Office Snežana Topalović Snežana Spasojević Vladimir Gavović Dragomir Milin research@bancaintesa.rs broker@bancaintesa.rs Custody Dealing Vitomir Marić Darko Karanović Olivera Glišić Nikola Ostojić kastodi@bancaintesa.rs Dragan Ignja trz_sales@bancaintesa.rs Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.