DAILY REPORT

Transcription

1 Financial market analysis unit DAILY REPORT Brokerage Unit Milica Travica Ljiljana Zipovski SrĎan Maletić Snežana Spasojević Vladimir Gavović FX sales Unit Custody Unit Darko Karanović Vitomir Marić Marija Prebanić Biljana Radosavljević Dragan Ignja FX rate Domestic market International market Currency Previous Change YTD Currency Previous Change YTD EUR % 1.98% EURUSD % 2.42% USD % 0.04% EURCHF % -1.12% CHF % 3.44% EURGBP % 7.01% GBP % 6.57% GBPUSD % -9.59% Source: NBS USDJPY % -4.93% 125 EUR/ 1.57 EUR/USD Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 5, 8 mil EUR at average rate 111, EUR and USD indicators for current day: Time Country Event Period Previous Forecast!! 15:00 Philadelphia Fed. March MM and fixed income Average weighted interest rate - REPO Interbank - Serbia NBS Key rate transactions Previous Change bps Maturity Previous BEONIA % 7 dana 9.32% 9.37% BELIBOR1M Source: NBS Next mon.com BELIBOR3M Source: Reuters T Bills - Serbia Maturity Previous Major Key Rates 3 month 9.48% 9.80% 6 month 9.80% 12.90% ECB 0.75% 12 month 10.49% 11.24% FED 0.25% 18 month 12.90% 13.99% SNB 0.00% 24 month 10.80% 12.29% 36 month 11.39% 13.95% 60 month 12.94% 14.74% 84 month 12.65% - 12 month EUR 5.75% 6.15% 24 month EUR 4.875% 6.20% 36 month EUR 4.875% 18 month EUR 5.05% 5.85% Interbank - World NBS key rate + NBS key rate 24 month 0.98% + 4% Previous Change bps Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance EONIA 0.064% 0.069% EURIBOR1M 0.118% 0.119% EURIBOR3M 0.207% 0.206% FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR6M 0.330% 0.326% Price Yield LIBOR1M (USD) % % A % LIBOR3M (USD) % % A % LIBOR1M (CHF) % % A % LIBOR3M (CHF) % % A % Source: Belex Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day

2 Equity market SERBIA Previous Change YTD Belex % 8.93% Belex line 1, , % 5.60% Turnover 49,608,201 Din. 12,204,609 Din % 445, , % Source: Belex Ratios Belex15 P / B P / E 0,69 5, Belex15 Belex Line 1, 700 1,200 1,000 - members of Belex % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -3.75% -2.48% -1.72% -1.22% -0.76% -0.44% -0.41% SJPT FITO AIKB VZAS NIIS ENHL AERO KMBN IMLK JMBN MTLC JESV TIGR ALFA GMON Prime Minister Ivica Dacic yesterday held talks with representatives of Italy s Maccaferri Industrial Group about the implementation of an energy cooperation agreement between Serbia and Italy, which envisages the construction of hydropower plants on the Ibar and the Drina rivers, according to a statement on the government s website. Maccaferri s delegation was headed by Gaetano Maccaferri, president of Italian engineering company SECI Energia, a unit of Maccaferri Group. Members of the delegation said that the company is interested in further investments in Serbia s energy sector, the government s statement said, without providing any further details. Following a meeting between Maccaferri and Dacic last October, Dacic s office said that the two sides agreed that the Italian company should start building 10 small hydropower plants on the Ibar river in the first half of 2013 in a project worth EUR 350 million, according to earlier reports. That would be the first part of a strategic project on the construction of hydropower capacities in Serbia and Republika Srpska, the Bosnian Serb entity, totaling EUR 2 billion. The second part of the project would involve building hydropower plants on the Drina river between Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. (Source: Executive newsletter) A sole suitor remains interested in taking over the good assets and liabilities of Vojvodina s troubled development bank, Razvojna Banka Vojvodine (RBV), after Societe Generale recently pulled out, according to Novi Sad daily Dnevnik s unnamed sources. The takeover should be completed in some 10 days, according to the daily. Experts believe that the takeover could be carried out by a bank majority owned by the state, according to the daily. Previously, Nis-based AIK Banka was unofficially mentioned as the most likely to take over RBV s good assets and liabilities, Vecernje Novosti reported in early March. Under an agreement signed by the Vojvodina and Serbian governments in December 2012, part of RBV s assets and liabilities are to be taken over by another bank, while part of the provincial development bank s assets are to be transferred to the province s newly-founded development fund, Razvojni Fond Vojvodine (RFV). According to earlier reports, the bank that would carry out the takeover would get EUR 110 million in insured deposits and EUR 100 million in uninsured deposits held by RBV. The government earlier said that five-year bonds would be issued by Serbia and Vojvodina to cover EUR 70 million in RBV s uninsured deposits that are not backed by good assets. (Source: Executive newsletter) Landlocked Serbia plans to invest 345 million euro ($446.9 million) in the upgrade of waterways on the rivers Danube, Sava and Tisa and of the Danube Tisa Danube Canal (DTD) and in the revitalization of the country's shipping and shipbuilding industry, the transport ministry said on Tuesday. The plan comprises million euro in investments in 29 projects on the river Danube, 14.4 million euro for 13 projects on the river Sava, 16 million euro for nine projects on the river Tisa while 47 million euro are intended for 30 projects on the DTD Canal, the ministry said in a statement published on its website after a panel discussion on issues related to the development of the domestic river transport. Serbia's inland waterways handled 8.69% of total cargo transported in 2011 and this type of traffic is expected to rise by 30% by 2027, assistant minister for water traffic and navigation safety Mirjana Trifunovic said at the discussion. Serbia at the moment has more than 900 ships but only around are operational, Trifunovic added. The average age of the domestic vessel fleet is over 40 years, the director of the state authority for determination of seaworthiness, Slobodan Milosevic, said, adding that most domestic vessels will soon not be able to sail outside of Serbia because of the start of the enforcement of new European regulations. ()

3 Aerodrom Nikola Tesla Energoprojekt holding Naftna industrija Srbije Soja protein Tigar Izvor: Bloomberg Prime Listing AERO , % -0.81% ENHL 678 2,684, % -0.44% NIIS 919 5,278, % 2.80% SJPT , % -6.88% TIGR , % -0.50% 0.11 #N/A N/A ,801,781, Din. 6,740,133,789 Din. 149,852,,000 Din. 11,484,449,219 Din. 345,410,461 Din. Alfa Plam Komercijalna banka Metalac Izvor: Bloomberg Standard Listing ALFA 5, % -4.57% KMBN 1, % -2.45% MTLC 2,290 22, % 2.05% ,028,943,481 Din. 13,847,802,734 Din. 2,335,,049 Din. Aik Banka ad Niš Aik Banka prioritetne akcije Albus ad Novi Sad AMS Osiguranje ad Beograd Bambi Banat ad Beograd Banini ad Poštanska Štedionica ad Poštanska Štedionica prior.akc. BAS ad Beograd BB Minaqua ad BIP ad Beograd Credy Banka ad Kragujevac Crvenka Fabrika Šećera Čačanska Banka ad Čoka Duvanska Industrija Dimničar ad Beograd Dunav Osiguranje ad Energomontaža ad Energoprojekt Entel Energoprojekt Industrija Energoprojekt Niskogradnja Energoprojekt Visokogradnja Galeb GTE ad Beograd Galenika Fitofarmacija Globos Osiguranje Goša FOM Goša Montaža Imlek ad Imlek ad prioritetne akcije Impol Seval Iritel ad Beograd Jedinstvo Sevojno Jubmes Banka Jugohemija ad Beograd Komercijalna Banka prior.akc. Kopaonik ad Beograd Lasta ad Beograd Luka Dunav ad Pančevo Messer Tehnogas Mlekara ad Subotica Montinvest ad Beograd Napred GP ad Neoplanta ad Novi Sad Niška Mlekara ad Niš Planinka ad Kuršumlija Planum GP ad Beograd Privredna Banka Beograd Proges ad Beograd Projektomontaža ad Beograd Pupin Telecom ad Zemun Radijator ad Zrenjanin Ravanica ad Bajmok Razvojna Banka Vojvodine Simpo ad Vranje Sloga ad Novi Pazar Soko Nada Štark ad Beograd Srpska Banka ad Beograd Šajkaška Fabrika Šećera Takovo Osiguranje Kragujevac Te-To ad Senta Telefonija ad Beograd Univerzal Banka ad Beograd Valjaonica Bakra Sevojno Veterinarski Zavod Subotica Vital ad Vrbas Voda Vrnjici ad Vršački Vinogradi ad Open market (Selected stocks) AIKB 1, , % -4.63% #N/A N/A AIKBPB % 1.35% n/a n/a #N/A N/A ALBS % 5.96% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A AMSO % 0.63% BMBI 20,900 62, % -0.49% BNNI 8, % 0.00% 0.73 #N/A N/A PSBN 25, % 0.00% PSBNPB 12, % 0.00% n/a n/a 7.72 BASB % 0.00% BBMN 5, % 2.50% BIPB % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A CYBN 2, % 0.00% CRFS 8, , % -0.68% CCNB 5, 33, % 0.00% COKA 1, % 0.00% DMNR 4, % 0.00% DNOS , 0.00% -4.76% EGMN 4, % 0.00% EPEN 3, % 0.00% EPIN 1, % 0.00% EPNS % 0.00% EPVI % 0.57% GLBG % 0.00% FITO 3, , % -3.55% GLOS % -0.74% 0.06 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A GFOM % 0.00% GMON 2,394 2,982, % 11.78% IMLK 3,036 45, % -0.46% IMLKPB 1, % 0.00% IMPL 809 8, % -4.60% IRTL % 0.00% JESV 4, % 0.00% JMBN 10, % 0.00% #N/A N/A JGHM 2, % 0.00% 0.53 #N/A N/A KMBNPB % -7.69% n/a n/a 8.92 KOPB 1, 21, % 3.67% LSTA % 0.00% LKDN % 0.00% TGAS 4, % 0.00% MLSU 1, % 0.10% MOIN 6,000 28,902, % 23.45% 0.24 #N/A N/A NPRD % 0.00% NEOP , % 1.90% MLNI 1, % 0.00% PLNN 14, % 0.00% PLNM % 0.00% PRBN % 0.00% 0.18 #N/A N/A PRGS % 0.00% 0.04 #N/A N/A PRJM 2, % 0.00% PTLK % % RDJZ % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A RVNC % 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A MTBN , % % 0.06 #N/A N/A SMPO % -6.94% 0.03 #N/A N/A SLNP % 0.00% 0.88 #N/A N/A STRK 1, % 0.00% SRBN 9, % 0.00% SJKS 4, % % TKOSM 3, % 0.00% TETO 7, % 0.00% TLFN , % % #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A UNBN % 0.00% 0.09 #N/A N/A VBSE % 0.00% VZAS , % -2.45% #N/A N/A VITL , % % VDAV 8, % 0.00% VRVI 1, % 0.00% 0.37 #N/A N/A ,196,125,000 Din. 965,730,774 Din. 72,317,757 Din. 180,656,006 Din. 8,002,588,867 Din. 461,263,458 Din. 11,691,218,750 Din. 11,691,218,750 Din. 279,445,923 Din. 864,273,193 Din. 391,560,547 Din. 1,498,090,698 Din. 5,772,249,512 Din. 734,007,996 Din. 73,315,498 Din. 18,900,000 Din. 181,425,293 Din. 285,160,004 Din. 1,267,484,985 Din. 335,427,002 Din. 748,058,655 Din. 1,061,911,133 Din. 41,131,611 Din. 2,697,199,951 Din. 148,855,774 Din. 643,431,396 Din. 615,779,907 Din. 27,541,462,891 Din. 17,243,799 Din. 762,310,181 Din. 63,822,880 Din. 1,249,347,900 Din. 2,697,005,127 Din. 475,293,365 Din. 268,927,185 Din. 231,484,497 Din. 398,049,591 Din. 292,225,586 Din. 4,146,631,836 Din. 2,428,281,982 Din. 143,339,996 Din. 245,444,489 Din. 1,022,617,188 Din. 467,010,345 Din. 913,976,013 Din. 256,748,199 Din. 271,718,262 Din. 134,618,347 Din. 403,492,798 Din. 67,318,382 Din. 169,970,886 Din. 688,916,992 Din. 888,786,804 Din. 147,298,294 Din. 213,463,257 Din. 4,305,043,945 Din. 1,572,590,820 Din. 3,687,310,059 Din. 2,004,914,063 Din. 3,083,187,744 Din. 60,815,475 Din. 558,968,811 Din. 611,188,171 Din. 1,093,934,814 Din. 702,822,021 Din. 918,296,021 Din. 462,035,004 Din.

4 REGION Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET Croatia 1, Slovenia Bulgaria , Romania 5, , DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkans % 14.03% -0.67% -4.66% -0.01% 8.59% 0.87% 11.31% -2.31% 3.36% CROBEX 2, 2, 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 crobex 1, 1,700 1, SBITOP sbi20 SOFIX 6, BET 6,000 sofix 5, bet-c 350 5,000 4, 4, , 750 DJ Stoxx Balkan dj balkan 350 mar.11 apr.11 maj.11 jun.11 jul.11 avg.11 sep.11 okt.11 nov.11 dec.11 jan.12 feb.12 mar.12 apr.12 maj.12 jun.12 jul.12 avg.12 sep.12 okt.12 nov.12 dec.12 jan.13 feb.13 mar.13 Slovenian lawmakers are set to approve a new government that pledged to follow through on a plan to fix the ailing banking industry to avoid an international bailout like Cyprus. Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek s coalition holds 47 seats in the Ljubljana-based 90-member Parliament, with a vote of confidence planned for today. Bratusek said her Cabinet will work to shore up the financial system by extending a 4 billion-euro ($5.2 billion) bank recapitalization plan devised by the previous administration of Janez Jansa. The Adriatic nation s banks, such as Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d., are struggling with surging bad loans that equaled a fifth of economic output, fueling investors concern that Slovenia may join Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain in asking for financial assistance. Jansa was ousted in a parliamentary vote last month. While the new Cabinet wants to recapitalize banks and consolidate public finances, it s unclear just how they will do that, Igor Masten, an economics professor at Ljubljana Economics University, said by . The yield on Slovenia s dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2022, which rose to percent, the highest this year when Jansa s Cabinet was ousted on Feb. 27, was at percent yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. () European policy makers must weigh how far to push Cyprus after lawmakers in the Mediterranean nation rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, throwing into limbo a rescue package designed to keep it in the euro. Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden called for the 17 euro-area finance ministers to reconvene as soon as possible to cobble together a new package. The European Central Bank, whose Governing Council meets today in Frankfurt, will also have to decide whether to give Cyprus more time or consider cutting off liquidity to the country s banks. This is not a good result -- neither for Cyprus, nor for the euro zone, and we have to look together for alternatives to the negotiated package, Frieden said yesterday in a phone interview from Frankfurt. He called the vote very sad news, though said the decision by its parliament must be respected. Cyprus s rejection came after days of recrimination sparked by European plans to force depositors in the country to shoulder part of the bailout with their savings. Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades returned from marathon talks on March 16 sayingthe alternative would be the indescribable misery of the ECB cutting off funding to one of its banks. What matters now is to undertake all necessary measuresto ensure the stability of the euro zone, Frieden said. ()

5 WORLD Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Dow Jones Industrial 14, S&P 1, NASDAQ 3, FTSE UK 6, Dow Jones Stoxx EU Nikkei 225 Japan 12, , , , , , % 10.32% -0.24% 8.56% -0.26% 6.94% -0.26% 9.22% -0.42% 5.67% 2.03% 19.94% Dow Jones Industrial 15,000 14, 14,000 13, 13,000 12, 12,000 dow jones 11, 11,000 10, 10,000 S&P 1,700 1, 1, 1, s&p 1,200 1,100 1,000 3, NASDAQ Composite 7,000 FTSE 3,200 3,000 2, nasdaq 6, 6,000 dax 2, 5, 2, 2,200 5,000 2,000 4, DJ Stoxx nikkei Nikkei ,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 dj stoxx \ 9,000 8,000 7,000 U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor s Index to its longest slump of the year, as Cypriot lawmakers rejection of a bank levy overshadowed datashowing growth in new-home construction. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. tumbled 6.6 percent as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for iron-ore prices. Electronic Arts Inc. slumped 8.3 percent after the video-game maker ousted its chief executive officer. Cardinal Health Inc. fell 8.2 percent after saying its contract with Walgreen Co. won t be renewed. Walgreen rose 5.4 percent and AmerisourceBergen Corp. surged 3.6 percent after agreeing to a partnership. Obviously the situation in Europe is not what we want it to be, John Manley, who helps oversee about $223.6 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York, said in a phone interview. The next couple weeks will be more periods of chopping around. I don t think it s more than 2 to 4 percent in terms of risk on the market, he said. The housing market does seem to be on a bit more steady ground and that helps U.S. consumers. Stocks fell as Cyprus s parliament rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, dealing a blow to European plans to force savers to shoulder part of the country s bailout in a standoff that risks renewed tumult in the euro area. Hammered out by euro-area finance chiefs at the weekend, the deal had sought to raise 5.8 billion euros ($7.5 billion) by drawing funds from Cyprus bank accounts in return for 10 billion euros in international aid. () European stocks dropped for a third day as Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said lawmakers will probably reject a 5.8 billion-euro ($7.5 billion) bank-deposit levy needed to win a European Union-led bailout. National Bank of Greece SA led a gauge of lenders to the lowest close this year. Rio Tinto Group sank the most since 2011 as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded the shares. ThyssenKrupp AG fell the most in a year after a report the German steelmaker is considering raising capital. Cie. Financiere Richemont SA slid the most in almost two months as an investor sold a stake in the luxury-goods company. Cyprus begins to lift the veil on how Brussels works, Michael O Sullivan, head of portfolio strategy at Credit Suisse Private Banking in London, told Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television. One of the pillars of banking reform across Europe was depositor insurance, and that s now unfortunately off the table. For other peripheral countries, there may be more bank refinancing to come. () Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.