Market Comment: SERBIAN EQUITIES WEEKLY January 8 th 11 th, Tuesday, January 15, 2013 BELEX 15. BELEX line

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Toby Kennedy
5 years ago
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1 BELEX 15 Friday Closing Value Weekly Change 0.40% Change 30 days 5.54% Change YTD 2.25% History High 3, History Low Market Comment: Serbian equities remained above par last week, although only just (BELEX15 at +0.40%, BELEXline at +0.03%). Nevertheless, this was enough to maintain the green streak for the ninth consecutive week. BSE indices are up 2.25% and 1.21% YTD, respectively BELEX 15 Equity turnover was boosted by a 96m block trade of Frikom (FRKM) shares (internal reshuffling within a group, no actual owner change). On the other hand, bonds liquidity remained modest. 400 Komercijalna Banka (KMBN) was the most popular stock for the week, followed by NIS (NIIS), Aerodrom Nikola Tesla (AERO), AIK Banka (AIKB) and Messer Tehnogas (TGAS). BELEX line Friday Closing Value 1, Weekly Change 0.03% Change 30 days 5.87% Change YTD 1.21% History High 5, History Low We expect the recurring liquidity on the Serbian market to improve this week, as the holiday season came to an end BELEX line

Current Week Previous Week Change Total Traded Value in EUR 97,677,227 4,390,839 2124.

24% Traded Value Bonds in EUR 34,860 63,182-44.

2 Current Week Previous Week Change Total Traded Value in EUR 97,677,227 4,390, % Traded Value Shares in EUR 97,642,367 4,327, % Traded Value Bonds in EUR 34,860 63, % PARTICIPATION OF SHARES AND BONDS IN LAST WEEK S TRADING Bonds: 0.04% Shares: 99.96% FOREIGN INVESTMENTS Current Week Previous Week FIT 99.52% 50.77% FIS 99.55% 51.14% FIB 29.39% 25.43% 2

3 Last Week s Trading of the Most Liquid BSE Companies 3

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5 Company News Energoprojekt Holding (ENHL): One of the holding members sanctioned by the World Bank Energoprojekt Niskogradnja, one of the members of Energoprojekt Holding, has been announced a debarment by the World Bank, for a period of two and a half years, due to the company s misconduct in its operations in Uganda. The decision affects the potential future projects that will be financed by the World Bank, not those that have already been signed. (Source: World Bank, B92, Company) It is important to stress that Niskogradnja is one of nine holding members, so the operations of the entire Energoprojekt system should not be heavily jeopardized. However, news like this can not do well for the company s reputation. ENHL currently trades at a P/S12e of 0.3 and a P/E12e of 7.1. Aerodrom Nikola Tesla (AERO): Number of serves passengers up 8% YoY AERO released its statistics for the whole year 2012, according to which the number of served passengers amounted to 3.36m, up 7.6% YoY. The achieved result is below the management expectations of some 3.5m, due to the growth slowdown seen in the last quarter of the year. The aircraft movements (landings and takeoffs) remained almost flat compared to the year 2011 (at 44,990, vs ). (Source: Company) AERO currently trades at a P/S12e of 2.6 and a P/E12e of

6 Eurobank Brokerage Head of Brokerage Ivan Radovic Research Nanuk Madjer Dejan Milicevic Trading Vojislav Nevenic Marija Andric Belgrade Central Address: Vuka Karadzica 10, Belgrade, Serbia Fax no: Disclaimer Eurobank AD Beograd and its third party suppliers ("Information Providers") furnish the information available in this Document without responsibility for accuracy and you agree that errors contained in such information shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action against Eurobank or any Information Provider. Eurobank believes its data and text services to be reliable, but accuracy is not warranted or guaranteed. The Document includes facts, views, opinions and recommendations of individuals and organizations deemed of interest. Neither Eurobank nor Information Providers guarantees the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorses these views, opinions or recommendations, gives investment advice, or advocates the purchase or sale of any security or investment. You agree not to reproduce, retransmit, disseminate, sell, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate or commercially exploit the information available in this Document in any manner without the express written consent of Eurobank, nor to use the information available in this Document for any unlawful purpose. Eurobank may point to other documents that may be of interest to you but for which Eurobank has no responsibility. Eurobank and information providers expressly disclaim all warranties of any kind, express or implied, including without limitation any warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. Neither Eurobank nor any of its information providers, parents, members, subsidiaries, affiliates, service providers, licensors, officers, directors or employees shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or relating to this agreement or resulting from the use or the inability to use the document, including but not limited to damages for loss of profits, use, data or other intangible damages, even if such party has been advised of the possibility of such damages. 6

Macroeconomic overview

Macroeconomic overview 1 January 31 st, 2014 8.0% Real GDP growth 4.0% 3.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.8% e 2014f 2015f -1.5% -4.0% -3.5%, National Bank (NBS) Preliminary statistics show Serbia s GDP growing by 2.4% in 2013. The