MNCS COMPANY UPDATE MNC Sekuritas Research Division May 11, 2018

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1 MNCS COMPANY UPDATE MNC Sekuritas Research Division May 11, 2018 PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN) Property Sector One in a Million BUY Target Price : 440 Stock Data Curent Price : 52wk Range H-L : Share Outstanding : Free Float (%) : Mkt Capitalization (IDR bn) Major Shareholders Woodside Global AA Land Webster Heighst Norges bank Public <5% Research Analyst Gilang Anindito gilang.dhirobroto@mncgroup.com (021) ext Research Associate Muhamad Rudy Setiawan muhamad.setiawan@mncgroup.com (021) ext : Bn , % 9.58% 8.46% 3.44% 60.47% Marketing Sales Target of Rp3,5 trillion or Increase by 68.76% in FY18E, but MDLN successfully booked of Rp1.95 trillion in 1Q18 MDLN sets marketing sales target of Rp3.5 trillion, with residential sales of Rp2.5 trillion and industrial land sales of Rp1.5 trillion. MDLN has booked sales of Rp 1.95 trillion in 1Q18 or 55.63% of the total target in FY18E. We assess the achievement of marketing sales is above the average marketing sales of other property companies in 1Q18. Unexpected Potential Growth of Joint Ventures with Waskita Karya Realty MDLN and Waskita Realty Property (WKR) will join together to develop Modern Bekasi. The JV Company will build landed house, mixed use, apartment, commercial area, educational facility, and hospital with the concept of toll road city (TRC). TRC is a residential development concept that has direct access to the Cibitung-Cilincing toll road (Bekasi, West Java), which is approximately 20 km away with Tanjung Priok Seaport. Industrial Estate Marketing Sales of Rp 1 Trillion, Supported by 6.66% Price Increase & Ease of Toll Road Access to Modernland Cikande Industrial land sales will grow 72.05% in FY18E, compared to FY17 realization of Rp billion. In addition, MDLN plans to increase the selling price of the industrial land in FY18E up to Rp1 million per m2 or an increase of 6.66% compared to FY17 which was average selling price at Rp1.5 million per m2. Site Visit : AEON Mall is the Center of Attraction in Jakarta Garden City Our visit to AEON Mall gave a charming impression both from the point of view of design and location. We believe that MDLN will get benefit from the presence of AEON Mall in Jakarta Garden City area. This is supported by 1) The presence of AEON Mall will attract potential buyers for property in Kelapa Gading and Bekasi areas, due to cheaper prices with similar facilities; 2) Direct access to toll roads that can easily get to the city center. Risk of Corporate Credit Rating In April 2018, Pefindo has lowered the MDLN rating to "ida-" from "ida". In addition, MDLN has bonds payable worth Rp600 billion, but this risk may decrease as the debt repayment of the bonds will be paid by using internal cash which MDLN has cash of Rp1 trillion in FY17. BUY Recommendation with TP: Rp440 We consider MDLN to have an attractive prospect, driven by 1) JV with WKR is an advantage; 2) Aeon Mall with potential customer appeal; and 2) Direct toll road access to Modern Cikande & the lowest industrial land prices. We recommend BUY for MDLN at a TP: Rp440, implies on PE18E / FY19F of 5.85x - 4,45x and PBV18E / PBV19F of 0.71x x. Key Financial Highlight In Million USD FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19F Revenues 2,962 2,465 3,196 3,605 4,721 EBITDA 1,366 1,319 1,415 1,818 2,218 Net Income ,240 ROA 6.80% 3.45% 4.21% 5.63% 6.19% ROE 14.42% 7.60% 8.69% 12.08% 14.09% PER (x) PBV (x) (as of May 11, 2018) MNC Sekuritas research@mncsekuritas.id Page 1

2 Marketing Sales Target of Rp3,5 trillion or Increase by 68.76% in FY18E, but MDLN successfully booked of Rp1.95 trillion in 1Q18 MDLN sets marketing sales target of Rp3.5 trillion, with residential sales of Rp2.5 trillion and industrial land sales of Rp1.5 trillion. In the residential segment, MDLN still relies on sales from Jakarta Garden City and Modern Bekasi, and in the industrial segment will rely on sales from Modern Cikande. MDLN has booked sales of Rp 1.95 trillion in 1Q18 or 55.63% of the total target in FY18E. The outstanding achievement was driven by residential land sales of Rp1.15 trillion to Waskita Realty for the Bekasi Modern development project. We assess the achievement of marketing sales is above the average marketing sales of other property companies in 1Q18. Exhibit 01. Marketing Sales 4,478 3,651 2,825 3,061 1,970 1, , Q18 Marketing Sales Target of Rp3,5 trillion or Increase by 68.76% in FY18E, but MDLN successfully booked of Rp1.95 trillion in 1Q18 After working together with PT Astra Land Indonesia to develop Jakarta Garden City, MDLN makes another surprise by cooperating with one of the developing property company PT Waskita Karya Realty (WKR) to build Modern Bekasi. WKR, a subsidiary of PT Waskita Karya Tbk, has approved the establishment of a joint venture with MDLN in March, The JV Company will build landed house, mixed use, apartment, commercial area, educational facility, and hospital with the concept of toll road city (TRC). TRC is a residential development concept that has direct access to the Cibitung -Cilincing toll road (Bekasi, West Java), which is approximately 20 km away with Tanjung Priok Seaport. We see this partnership as very beneficial for MDLN and WKR because 1) MDLN benefits by selling 350 ha of land with a value of Rp1.1 trillion; 2) MDLN establishes a joint venture with WKR; 3) WKR obtains land bank; 4) Construction of Cibitung-Cilincing toll road built by WKR's parent company has the potential to be completed quickly. Page 2

3 Exhibit 02. Modern Bekasi Source: MDLN Industrial Estate Marketing Sales of Rp 1 Trillion, Supported by 6.66% Price Increase & Ease of Toll Road Access to Modernland Cikande One of the MDLN's revenue contributions is from the sale of industrial land in Modernland Cikande. The company targets sales of Rp1 trillion in FY18E. Industrial land sales will grow 72.05% in FY18E, compared to FY17 realization of Rp billion. MDLN targets companies which buy industrial land in Modernland Cikande, from the Food and Beverage (F&B) and steel industries. In addition, MDLN plans to increase the selling price of the industrial land in FY18E up to Rp1 million per m2 or an increase of 6.66% compared to FY17 which was average selling price at Rp1.5 million per m2. We assessed that MDLN s sales industrial land is cheaper than some other industrial areas such as in Tangerang which reaches US$ per m2. We look for two aspects, namely, the increase of the sales price of industrial land and direct toll road access to the location, both positive catalysts to develop MDLN s industrial area with an attractive prospect. Exhibit 03. Industrial Land Price & Maintenance Cost REGION LAND PRICE (IN USD/SQ M) MAINTENANCE COSTS (IN USD/SQ M/MONTH) LOWEST HIGHEST AVERAGE LOWEST HIGHEST AVERAGE Bogor Bekasi Tangerang Karawang Serang Source: Colliers Page 3

4 Site Visit : AEON Mall is the Center of Attraction in Jakarta Garden City We conducted a site visit to AEON Mall, located in Jakarta Garden City (JGC) which opened on September 30, Our visit to AEON Mall gave a charming impression both from the point of view of design and location. From the design side there is no doubt that the concept of the Japanese mall is different from any other mall concept in Jakarta. While from the location, AEON Mall is aggressive to open in a minimal area for malls in East Jakarta. AEON Mall JGC has 4 floors, with 227 tenants. We saw that most of the tenants serve food products with a portion of more than 50% and dominate the ground floor and 3rd floor. Exhibit 04. AEON Mall JGC Ground Floor Visitors On the ground floor we immediately found a booth of MDLN to promote MDLN s products. We consider this to be a positive way to encourage sales that MDLN directly sell to potential buyers. There is more than one booth belonging to MDLN on the ground floor of AEON Mall JGC. Exhibit 05. Booth Jakarta Garden City MNC Sekuritas msec.research@mncsekuritas.id Page 4

5 Aeon Mall JGC offers different experiences for mall visitors. There are two rides that have become visitor attractions, such as an ice skating rink with an area of 1800 m2 on the 2nd floor and Ferris wheel called J-Sky, which has a diameter of 50 meters and 32 gondolas on the 3rd floor. When heading to the 2nd floor, we went straight to the ice skating rink. Admission price for ice skate rink is Rp110,000 on weekdays and Rp135,000 on weekends. We consider this to be a competitive advantage given that there is no other ice skating rink in East Jakarta. Exhibit 06. Ice Skating Rink Next, we headed to the 3rd floor, to see J-Sky rides. The regular admission price for J-Sky is Rp50,000. Inside the vehicle, there is an advertisement of Jakarta Garden City as a promotion of MDLN. We saw this ride had become one of the best attractions because visitors could see the extent of JGC areas that could potentially increase visitor interest in buying property in the area. Exhibit 07. J-Sky Rides MNC Sekuritas msec.research@mncsekuritas.id Page 5

6 We believe that MDLN will get benefit from the presence of AEON Mall in Jakarta Garden City area. This is supported by 1) The presence of AEON Mall will attract potential buyers for property in Kelapa Gading and Bekasi areas, due to cheaper prices with similar facilities; 2) Direct access to toll roads that can easily get to the city center. Risk of Corporate Credit Rating BUY Recommendation with TP: Rp440 In April 2018, Pefindo has lowered the MDLN rating to "ida-" from "ida". One of the causes of the downgrade was due to the decline in marketing sales in FY17. The sale of MDLN industrial land is not as expected, thus affect to the achievement of marketing sales in FY17. In addition, MDLN has bonds payable worth Rp600 billion, but this risk may decrease as the debt repayment of the bonds will be paid by using internal cash which MDLN has cash of Rp1 trillion in FY17. We see that the achievement of marketing sales in 1Q18 was extraordinary and cooperation with WKR will reduce the risk of MDLN in the next few years. We consider MDLN to have an attractive prospect, driven by 1) JV with WKR is an advantage; 2) Aeon Mall with potential customer appeal; and 2) Direct toll road access to Modern Cikande & the lowest industrial land prices. We recommend BUY for MDLN at TP: Rp440, implies on PE18E / FY19F of 5.77x - 4,40x and PBV18E / PBV19F of 0.70x x. Exhibit 08. PE Band MDLN 0.5 STD (Average 3 Years) PE_RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD Apr/15 May/15 Jun/15 Jul/15 Aug/15 Sep/15 Oct/15 Nov/15 Dec/15 Jan/16 Mar/16 Apr/16 May/16 Jun/16 Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 Oct/16 Nov/16 Dec/16 Jan/17 Feb/17 Mar/17 Apr/17 May/17 Jun/17 Jul/17 Aug/17 Sep/17 Oct/17 Nov/17 Dec/17 Jan/18 Feb/18 Mar/18 Apr/18 May/18 Source: Bloomberg, MNCS Page 6

7 Exhibit 09. Financial Projections Income Statement Billion Rp FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19F Revenue 2, , , , , Balance Sheet Billion RP FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19F Cash and cash equivalents , , , Trade Receivables 1, , , , Cost Of Revenue 1, , , , Gross Profit 1, , , , , Operating Expenses Operating Profit 1, , , , , Inventory , , , , Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 3, , , , , Fixed Assets - net 6, , , , , Other Non-Current Assets 3, , , , , Total Non-Current Assets 9, , , , , TOTAL ASSETS 12, , , , , Trade Payables Short-term Debt , Other Income (Expenses) (106.31) Finance Cost (508.95) (539.28) (584.33) (612.63) (651.41) Other current liabilities 2, , , , , Total Current Liabilities 3, , , , , Long-term Debt 3, , , , , Profit Before Income Tax , , Other Long-term liabilities , , , Total Long-term Liabilities 3, , , , , Income Tax Expenses , Total Equity 6, , , , , Net Profit , TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 12, , , , , Cash Flow Billion Rp FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19F Ratios FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19F Net Income , Depreciation Change in Working Capital (958.17) (917.37) 1, (773.02) (1,462.91) Change in others , (1,341.88) CFO (74.86) Short Term Investment (0.28) (0.16) (0.42) Long Term Investment Capex (41.56) (62.35) (120.00) (150.00) (200.00) Change in other (856.64) (709.69) (447.17) (1,219.26) CFI (893.64) (771.79) (79.56) (597.33) (1,419.68) Short Term Debt (525.19) Long Term Debt , Equity Financing (28.76) - Dividend (150.40) (100.26) (122.95) (188.52) (247.97) Other (411.93) (173.00) CFF (32.32) , Net Cash Increase , , Closing Balance , , , Growth Year on Year Revenue Growth 4.32% % 29.64% 12.80% 30.94% Gross Profit Growth 56.57% 64.97% 60.64% 62.35% 58.14% Operating Profit Growth 5.20% -2.32% 2.04% 35.08% 22.14% Net Income Growth 23.65% % 22.62% 53.33% 31.53% Profitability GPM 56.57% 64.97% 60.64% 62.35% 58.14% OPM 41.34% 48.52% 38.19% 45.74% 42.66% EBITDA Margin 46.11% 53.49% 44.27% 50.42% 46.98% NPM 29.48% 20.34% 19.24% 26.15% 26.27% ROA 6.80% 3.45% 4.21% 5.63% 6.19% ROE 14.42% 7.60% 8.69% 12.08% 14.09% Other Ratio DER (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) PER (x) PBV (x) (as of May 11, 2018) Page 7

8 MNC SEKURITAS RESEARCH TEAM Thendra Crisnanda Head of Institutional Research, Strategy (021) ext Victoria Venny Telco, Toll Road, Logistics, Consumer, Poultry (021) ext Rr. Nurulita Harwaningrum Banking, Auto, Plantation (021) ext M. Rudy Setiawan Research Associate (021) ext Edwin J. Sebayang Head of Retail Research, Technical, Auto, Mining (021) ext Gilang Anindito Property, Construction, Mining, Media (021) ext Tomy Zulfikar Research Analyst (021) ext Khazar Srikandi Research Associate (021) ext I Made Adi Saputra Head of Fixed Income Research imade.saputra@mncgroup.com (021) ext Rheza Dewangga Nugraha Junior Analyst of Fixed Income rheza.nugraha@mncgroup.com (021) ext Krestanti Nugrahane Widhi Research Associate, Plantation, Consumer krestanti.widhi@mncgroup.com (021) ext Sukisnawati Puspitasari Research Associate, Cement, Mining sukisnawati.sari@mncgroup.com (021) ext MNC SEKURITAS EQUITY SALES TEAM T. Heldy Arifien Head of High Networth heldy.arifien@mncgroup.com (021) ext Harun Nurrosyid harun.nurrosyid@mncgroup.com (021) ext Agus Eko Santoso agus.santoso@mncgroup.com (021) ext Okhy Ibrahim okhy.ibrahim@mncgroup.com (021) ext Gilang Ramadhan gilang.ramadhan@mncgroup.com (021) ext Muhamad Fauzan Saputra Junior Equity Sales Muh.saputra@mncgroup.com (021) ext Nesya Kharismawati nesya.kharismawati@mncgroup.com (021) ext Iman Hadimulya, ST iman.hadimulya@mncgroup.com (021) ext Paksi Jaladara Junior Equity Sales paksi.jaladara@mncgroup.com (021) ext MNC Research Investment Ratings Guidance BUY : Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months HOLD : Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% of the next 12 months SELL : Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated : Stock is not within regular research coverage PT MNC SEKURITAS MNC Financial Center Lt Jl. Kebon Sirih No , Jakarta Pusat Telp : (021) Fax : (021) Call Center : Disclaimer This research report has been issued by PT MNC Sekuritas, It may not be reproduced or further distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. PT MNC Sekuritas has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; PT MNC Sekuritas makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility to liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expression of opinion herein are those of the research department only and are subject to change without notice. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any investment. PT MNC Sekuritas and its affiliates and/or their offices, director and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. PT MNC Sekuritas and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting position in the securities of companies discusses herein (or investment related thereto) and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. Page 8