2019 Key Drivers. Peter Rosenstreich & Stefano Gianti

Transcription

1 2019 Key Drivers Peter Rosenstreich & Stefano Gianti

2 Swissquote Group Listed on the Swiss market exchange since MAY 2000 (SIX:SQN) Over 1 trillion CHF annual trading volume 25.5 billion CHF assets under custody 320,000 clients worldwide

3 Beyond the highest Swiss Banking Standards million CHF Total Equity 27.5% Capital Ratio (CET 1) million CHF Net Revenues

4 Creating the optimal environment for success Take the lead. 4

5 Peter ROSENSTREICH Peter Rosenstreich is Swissquote Bank s Head or Market Strategy and manages the global strategy desk; he has held various positions in several banking institutions in the United States, Europe & Asia. He has been quoted, featured and is a frequent contributor in numerous financial publications and broadcast outlets for more than ten years, including Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg TV & Radio, Financial Times and CNBC. Peter champions all aspects of Research and Strategy desk, and he collaborates with the global sales team to manage HNW and institutional client relationships. He manages Themes Trading - 26 unique Thematic Equity Portfolios, traded on SIX Exchange. He drives creation and distribution of technical reports, views, and analysis on G10, emerging market currencies, commodities and multiple FX and commodity strategy publications. Globally Planning, organizing and conducting seminars, workshops, and webinars and managing the production of research in 10 languages. Conducting Themes Trading and providing Investment Insights, combined discretionary stock selection with algorithmic portfolio allocation.

6 Stefano GIANTI Education Manager for Swissquote Bank, a world leader in online trading. His teachings are mainly focused on the correct management of portfolio risks and maximizing profits through the use of CFDs on equity indices, commodities and currencies. His analysis is also focused on the Macroeconomic situation of the markets and related events that could influence them. He is member of IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts) and SIAT (Italian Society of Technical Analysis). He is hosted on weekly basis by CNBC, RAI television and other networks on the expectations and trends of the financial markets.

7 Agenda 1. Macro View 2. Wide range of growth Scenarios 3. Global Tightening 4. Emerging Market Divergence 5. Risk of a Trade War 6. European Fragmentation 7. China Rebalancing 7

8 DISCLAIMER These videos are addressed exclusively to persons who are not, due to their nationality or place of residence, not permitted to receive it under local law. The content of this presentation is purely informative and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation for any decision and is not to be understood as advice, in particular in tax and legal questions. No information or opinion regarding a product or strategy expressed during these videos should be understood with reference to the investment objectives, the assets, the experience or the knowledge of a single investor. These videos do not constitute financial analysis. Information on past returns is neither a guarantee nor a forecast for future returns. Swissquote Bank Ltd and its employees shall in no event be liable for damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of the videos content. CFDs and Forex are leveraged products; trading on margin carries a high degree of risk and losses can exceed your deposits. It is not suitable for everyone, please ensure you understand all the risks. The content of these videos was produced by Swissquote Bank Ltd as per the current date and may be subject to change without prior notification. Although the content of these videos has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Swissquote Bank Ltd believes to be reliable, Swissquote Bank Ltd assumes no responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completeness of the content of these videos. These videos may not be reproduced in part or full without the written prior consent of Swissquote Bank Ltd. The sole place of jurisdiction for any disputes arising out of or in connection with this disclaimer and/or to the use of these videos is Gland, Switzerland and they shall be exclusively governed by and construed in accordance with Swiss Law. Swissquote Bank Ltd. All rights reserved. 8

9 Risk Radar

10 Risk Map

11 Global Overview

12 The FED s New Dot Plot

13 Global Growth

14 Global Trade

15 Yields

16 Stocks

17 SMI

18 S&P500

19 Question 1 What performance do you expect from the S&P500 index in 2019? 1. Positive ( > than 5%) 2. Neutral (between -5% and +5%) 3. Negative ( < than -5%)

20 USD direction

21 USD direction

22 Dollar Index: strong 2018

23 Key Drivers

24 Wide Range of Growth Projections 24

25 Wide range of growth projections Data looks firm but significant uncertain and unsustainable US mature business cycle got a fiscal boost, investments due to trade fear being pulled forward and consumer confidence. Eurozone downside risks are growing; increasing costs for funding China hard or soft landing Shadow economy can negate PBoC official policy Trumps trade tweet triggers a trade war overnight 25

26 USA: late cycle surge 26

27 Wild boom & bust 27

28 Global tightening 28

29 Global tightening Official «normalization» and Financial markets Higher interest rates, stronger USD and less easy monetary policy coming Rising interest rates and Fed tightening to continue, Fed stronger USD will tightening fund rate at 2.50% end of financial conditions --- effect 2018, 3.00%/3.25% end of will be felt across markets 2019 Investors demand more ECB to End QE this year and compensation for risk in increase refinance rate 0.25% 2019 by end of 2019 Pressure on EM to raise What is the Uncertainty Premium? Direction of Inflation? 29

30 USA: homebuyers affordability composite index 30

31 EM divergence 31

32 Emerging Markets divergence Tighter financial conditions feel mostly in EM. Rising USD is affecting EM depending on borrowing in hard currencies Watch out countries with large external deficits Borrowers see currency depreciate Safety in large cap value stocks 32

33 Turkey 33

34 Turkey: inflation + currency spiral reaches a new high 34

35 Risk of Trade War 35

36 Risk of Trade War US- World trade tensions are heating up Trump challenge rules of post war global order Trump against multilateral deal favoring bilateral Trade disputes main event but part of a larger global trend of protectionism US withdrawal form Trans pacific partnership trade pact triggered global organization of power structure US-China more then just trade gap issues Likely going to last a while Technological developments Central planned vs. Open economy 36

37 USD drive by trade 37

38 European Fragmentation 38

39 Europe Fragmentation Europe will survive but further integration unlikely Italy anti-establishment government highlights renewed risks of a European break up EU budget rules violation Immigration Trade relations Not prepared for a systematic banking failure US hostility towards EU trade could bring countries closer German October elections will test the anchor of Europe BREXIT?????.. We are leaning toward a hard Scenario Underweight European equities 39

40 Euro Area: ECB on watch 40

41 United Kingdom: growth underperforming 41

42 United Kingdom: Brexit paralysis 42

43 China s path 43

44 China Rebalacing Transition can be tricky China near term outlook is resilient as country aims to improve balance and quality of growth not just expansion More consumption less investment as share of economic activity Crack down on showdown banking PBoC will still inject liquidy US Fed policy likely to further weaker CNY helping support trade (ease tensions between growth and deleveraging) Gradual introduction of China A share will help support stocks Risks Trade tensions Domestic debt Levels 44

45 China yearly GDP by expenditures 45

46 China fix asset investment (excl. rural) YTD 46

47 USD/CNH in

48 USD/CNH since

49 Question 2 Which will be the best stock exchange in 2019? 1. S&P Eurostoxx Shangai Composite Index

50 News & exclusive market research throughout the day 50

51 Swissquote Bank HQ Chemin de la Créteaux 33, 1196 Gland, Switzerland Opening hours: 8:00 to 22:00 CET, Monday to Friday 51

52 Why Trade with Swissquote? 20 years of online trading expertise Trusted by +300,000 traders worldwide Multilingual Customer Support Exclusive market research with daily & weekly reports Global Liquidity & Precise Execution International Group listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange (SIX:SQN) 52

53 Thank you

54 DISCLAIMER These videos are addressed exclusively to persons who are not, due to their nationality or place of residence, not permitted to receive it under local law. The content of this presentation is purely informative and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation for any decision and is not to be understood as advice, in particular in tax and legal questions. No information or opinion regarding a product or strategy expressed during these videos should be understood with reference to the investment objectives, the assets, the experience or the knowledge of a single investor. These videos do not constitute financial analysis. Information on past returns is neither a guarantee nor a forecast for future returns. Swissquote Bank Ltd and its employees shall in no event be liable for damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of the videos content. CFDs and Forex are leveraged products; trading on margin carries a high degree of risk and losses can exceed your deposits. It is not suitable for everyone, please ensure you understand all the risks. The content of these videos was produced by Swissquote Bank Ltd as per the current date and may be subject to change without prior notification. Although the content of these videos has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Swissquote Bank Ltd believes to be reliable, Swissquote Bank Ltd assumes no responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completeness of the content of these videos. These videos may not be reproduced in part or full without the written prior consent of Swissquote Bank Ltd. The sole place of jurisdiction for any disputes arising out of or in connection with this disclaimer and/or to the use of these videos is Gland, Switzerland and they shall be exclusively governed by and construed in accordance with Swiss Law. Swissquote Bank Ltd. All rights reserved. 54