PENNSYLVANIA COMPENSATION RATING BUREAU. Empirical Pennsylvania Loss Distribution

Transcription

1 Exhibit 22 As Filed PENNSYLVANIA COMPENSATION RATING BUREAU Empirical Pennsylvania Loss Distribution Pages 1 through 4 of the attached exhibit present a distribution of Pennsylvania losses by size of claim. The losses used to produce this distribution include three years of experience. Losses have been trended to the midpoint of the experience period for the proposed loss costs and adjusted to reflect current benefit levels. Additionally, losses were brought to an ultimate level by applying development factors to open claims. Page 5 of the exhibit shows a summary and includes loss ranges consistent with those published with the excess loss factors. In certain instances it was necessary to interpolate between loss size ranges in the empirical distribution in deriving excess loss factors for specified limits. The Bureau s analysis this year again considered loss distributions by type of injury based solely on Pennsylvania experience. Pages 6 through 9 of this exhibit show excess loss ratios by loss limitation separately for death, permanent total, permanent partial, temporary total and medicalonly claims. The columns labeled Actual represent excess losses based entirely on actual losses. For each type of injury except medical-only, losses of $500,000 and higher were fitted to a loss distribution curve and actual losses and claim counts were replaced by the fitted values. Cumulative losses and claim counts were then recalculated using fitted values above $500,000 and actual values for loss limitations below $500,000. The resulting excess loss ratios are shown in the column labeled Fitted. Please Note: The term Pareto refers to Single Parameter Pareto Distribution. Page 10 is a graph showing the cumulative loss distribution for the above mentioned types of injury, along with the total for all injuries. The y-axis represents the cumulative percentage of total incurred losses.

2 LIMITS PENNSYLVANIA ACCUMULATED NUMBER ACCUMULATED INDEMNITY EXCESS CLAIMS OF LOSSES AND RATIO AVERAGE (ADDED UP) CLAIMS (ADDED DOWN) MEDICAL , ,103 $ 158,813,866 $ 158,813, $ 420 1,000 1, ,991 84,774 $ 277,248,715 $ 118,434, $ 1,397 2,000-2, ,217 33,484 $ 359,151,609 $ 81,902, $ 2,446 3,000-3, ,733 20,320 $ 429,571,816 $ 70,420, $ 3,466 4,000-4, ,413 13,826 $ 491,336,470 $ 61,764, $ 4,467 5,000-5, ,587 10,396 $ 548,256,263 $ 56,919, $ 5,475 6,000-6, ,191 8,307 $ 602,039,967 $ 53,783, $ 6,475 7,000-7, ,884 7,090 $ 655,087,851 $ 53,047, $ 7,482 8,000-8,999 97,794 5,917 $ 705,287,808 $ 50,199, $ 8,484 9,000-9,999 91,877 5,308 $ 755,650,069 $ 50,362, $ 9,488 10,000-10,999 86,569 4,612 $ 804,040,712 $ 48,390, $ 10,492 11,000-11,999 81,957 3,992 $ 849,914,318 $ 45,873, $ 11,491 12,000-12,999 77,965 3,580 $ 894,637,563 $ 44,723, $ 12,493 13,000-13,999 74,385 3,160 $ 937,309,010 $ 42,671, $ 13,504 14,000-14,999 71,225 2,897 $ 979,290,643 $ 41,981, $ 14,491 15,000-15,999 68,328 2,610 $ 1,019,719,798 $ 40,429, $ 15,490 16,000-16,999 65,718 2,446 $ 1,060,048,543 $ 40,328, $ 16,488 17,000-17,999 63,272 2,195 $ 1,098,463,512 $ 38,414, $ 17,501 18,000-18,999 61,077 2,030 $ 1,136,010,268 $ 37,546, $ 18,496 19,000-19,999 59,047 1,820 $ 1,171,492,873 $ 35,482, $ 19,496 20,000-20,999 57,227 1,742 $ 1,207,194,176 $ 35,701, $ 20,494 21,000-21,999 55,485 1,540 $ 1,240,302,191 $ 33,108, $ 21,499 22,000-22,999 53,945 1,482 $ 1,273,638,850 $ 33,336, $ 22,494 23,000-23,999 52,463 1,412 $ 1,306,814,430 $ 33,175, $ 23,495 24,000-24,999 51,051 1,304 $ 1,338,768,494 $ 31,954, $ 24,505 25,000-25,999 49,747 1,196 $ 1,369,266,200 $ 30,497, $ 25,500 26,000-26,999 48,551 1,120 $ 1,398,924,089 $ 29,657, $ 26,480 27,000-27,999 47,431 1,109 $ 1,429,421,892 $ 30,497, $ 27,500 28,000-28,999 46,322 1,052 $ 1,459,395,283 $ 29,973, $ 28,492 29,000-29,999 45, $ 1,487,890,237 $ 28,494, $ 29,498 30,000-30,999 44, $ 1,517,039,699 $ 29,149, $ 30,491 31,000-31,999 43, $ 1,544,643,052 $ 27,603, $ 31,475 32,000-32,999 42, $ 1,571,895,683 $ 27,252, $ 32,482 33,000-33,999 41, $ 1,599,773,174 $ 27,877, $ 33,507 34,000-34,999 40, $ 1,626,641,559 $ 26,868, $ 34,491 35,000-35,999 40, $ 1,651,981,642 $ 25,340, $ 35,490 36,000-36,999 39, $ 1,676,387,773 $ 24,406, $ 36,482 37,000-37,999 38, $ 1,702,389,989 $ 26,002, $ 37,521 38,000-38,999 37, $ 1,726,872,472 $ 24,482, $ 38,494 39,000-39,999 37, $ 1,751,998,679 $ 25,126, $ 39,507 40,000-40,999 36, $ 1,775,395,560 $ 23,396, $ 40,479 41,000-41,999 36, $ 1,799,900,074 $ 24,504, $ 41,463 42,000-42,999 35, $ 1,824,502,008 $ 24,601, $ 42,490 43,000-43,999 34, $ 1,847,336,931 $ 22,834, $ 43,495 44,000-44,999 34, $ 1,870,706,790 $ 23,369, $ 44,514 45,000-45,999 33, $ 1,893,727,647 $ 23,020, $ 45,496 46,000-46,999 33, $ 1,915,157,541 $ 21,429, $ 46,486 47,000-47,999 32, $ 1,936,204,334 $ 21,046, $ 47,510 48,000-48,999 32, $ 1,957,681,172 $ 21,476, $ 48,480 49,000-49,999 32, $ 1,977,374,011 $ 19,692, $ 49,479 1

3 ACCUMULATED NUMBER ACCUMULATED INDEMNITY EXCESS LIMITS CLAIMS OF LOSSES AND RATIO AVERAGE (ADDED UP) CLAIMS (ADDED DOWN) MEDICAL 50,000-50,999 31, $ 1,995,910,164 $ 18,536, $ 50,507 51,000-51,999 31, $ 2,013,627,306 $ 17,717, $ 51,503 52,000-52,999 30, $ 2,031,738,503 $ 18,111, $ 52,496 53,000-53,999 30, $ 2,050,036,391 $ 18,297, $ 53,503 54,000-54,999 30, $ 2,068,351,451 $ 18,315, $ 54,509 55,000-55,999 29, $ 2,085,614,063 $ 17,262, $ 55,507 56,000-56,999 29, $ 2,102,339,583 $ 16,725, $ 56,505 57,000-57,999 29, $ 2,119,132,339 $ 16,792, $ 57,509 58,000-58,999 28, $ 2,135,109,658 $ 15,977, $ 58,525 59,000-59,999 28, $ 2,154,037,165 $ 18,927, $ 59,520 60,000-60,999 28, $ 2,170,855,171 $ 16,818, $ 60,496 61,000-61,999 28, $ 2,189,426,070 $ 18,570, $ 61,493 62,000-62,999 27, $ 2,206,171,653 $ 16,745, $ 62,484 63,000-63,999 27, $ 2,221,788,476 $ 15,616, $ 63,483 64,000-64,999 27, $ 2,238,429,141 $ 16,640, $ 64,499 65,000-65,999 27, $ 2,256,043,920 $ 17,614, $ 65,482 66,000-66,999 26, $ 2,272,066,684 $ 16,022, $ 66,484 67,000-67,999 26, $ 2,287,253,631 $ 15,186, $ 67,498 68,000-68,999 26, $ 2,304,442,747 $ 17,189, $ 68,483 69,000-69,999 26, $ 2,318,481,083 $ 14,038, $ 69,497 70,000-70,999 25, $ 2,333,359,189 $ 14,878, $ 70,512 71,000-71,999 25, $ 2,348,727,082 $ 15,367, $ 71,479 72,000-72,999 25, $ 2,362,936,363 $ 14,209, $ 72,496 73,000-73,999 25, $ 2,377,407,151 $ 14,470, $ 73,456 74,000-74,999 25, $ 2,393,351,104 $ 15,943, $ 74,504 75,000-75,999 24, $ 2,408,071,052 $ 14,719, $ 75,487 76,000-76,999 24, $ 2,423,981,985 $ 15,910, $ 76,495 77,000-77,999 24, $ 2,440,956,582 $ 16,974, $ 77,510 78,000-78,999 24, $ 2,455,949,950 $ 14,993, $ 78,499 79,000-79,999 24, $ 2,469,069,784 $ 13,119, $ 79,514 80,000-80,999 23, $ 2,483,957,453 $ 14,887, $ 80,474 81,000-81,999 23, $ 2,498,381,495 $ 14,424, $ 81,492 82,000-82,999 23, $ 2,512,155,628 $ 13,774, $ 82,480 83,000-83,999 23, $ 2,522,508,043 $ 10,352, $ 83,487 84,000-84,999 23, $ 2,536,870,028 $ 14,361, $ 84,482 85,000-85,999 23, $ 2,551,754,566 $ 14,884, $ 85,543 86,000-86,999 22, $ 2,565,683,304 $ 13,928, $ 86,514 87,000-87,999 22, $ 2,578,886,389 $ 13,203, $ 87,438 88,000-88,999 22, $ 2,592,960,741 $ 14,074, $ 88,518 89,000-89,999 22, $ 2,607,286,909 $ 14,326, $ 89,539 90,000-90,999 22, $ 2,619,958,189 $ 12,671, $ 90,509 91,000-91,999 22, $ 2,635,148,960 $ 15,190, $ 91,511 92,000-92,999 21, $ 2,647,356,446 $ 12,207, $ 92,481 93,000-93,999 21, $ 2,659,324,780 $ 11,968, $ 93,503 94,000-94,999 21, $ 2,671,792,544 $ 12,467, $ 94,453 95,000-95,999 21, $ 2,685,262,590 $ 13,470, $ 95,532 96,000-96,999 21, $ 2,697,899,689 $ 12,637, $ 96,466 97,000-97,999 21, $ 2,709,598,608 $ 11,698, $ 97,491 98,000-98,999 21, $ 2,723,880,251 $ 14,281, $ 98,494 99,000-99,999 20, $ 2,736,714,746 $ 12,834, $ 99, , ,999 20,857 1,225 $ 2,865,123,525 $ 128,408, $ 104,823 2

4 ACCUMULATED NUMBER ACCUMULATED INDEMNITY EXCESS LIMITS CLAIMS OF LOSSES AND RATIO AVERAGE (ADDED UP) CLAIMS (ADDED DOWN) MEDICAL 110, ,999 19,632 1,249 $ 3,008,504,525 $ 143,381, $ 114, , ,999 18,383 1,022 $ 3,136,220,176 $ 127,715, $ 124, , ,999 17,361 1,015 $ 3,273,204,043 $ 136,983, $ 134, , ,999 16, $ 3,414,762,767 $ 141,558, $ 145, , ,999 15,370 1,089 $ 3,583,475,837 $ 168,713, $ 154, , ,999 14, $ 3,745,277,572 $ 161,801, $ 164, , ,999 13, $ 3,911,016,865 $ 165,739, $ 175, , ,999 12, $ 4,060,911,301 $ 149,894, $ 185, , ,999 11, $ 4,207,928,798 $ 147,017, $ 194, , ,999 10, $ 4,348,215,668 $ 140,286, $ 204, , ,999 10, $ 4,478,164,093 $ 129,948, $ 214, , ,999 9, $ 4,596,072,238 $ 117,908, $ 225, , ,999 8, $ 4,714,440,658 $ 118,368, $ 234, , ,999 8, $ 4,818,024,800 $ 103,584, $ 244, , ,999 8, $ 4,924,513,311 $ 106,488, $ 254, , ,999 7, $ 5,023,096,516 $ 98,583, $ 265, , ,999 7, $ 5,116,877,442 $ 93,780, $ 275, , ,999 6, $ 5,210,103,302 $ 93,225, $ 285, , ,999 6, $ 5,299,787,833 $ 89,684, $ 295, , ,999 6, $ 5,434,655,041 $ 134,867, $ 307, , ,999 5, $ 5,568,321,822 $ 133,666, $ 322, , ,999 5, $ 5,693,812,932 $ 125,491, $ 337, , ,999 5, $ 5,799,216,965 $ 105,404, $ 352, , ,999 4, $ 5,906,051,060 $ 106,834, $ 367, , ,999 4, $ 5,999,043,804 $ 92,992, $ 382, , ,999 4, $ 6,096,415,931 $ 97,372, $ 397, , ,999 3, $ 6,192,507,343 $ 96,091, $ 412, , ,999 3, $ 6,305,072,517 $ 112,565, $ 429, , ,999 3, $ 6,413,993,992 $ 108,921, $ 450, , ,999 3, $ 6,510,837,767 $ 96,843, $ 470, , ,999 3, $ 6,618,636,009 $ 107,798, $ 489, , ,999 2, $ 6,722,268,691 $ 103,632, $ 510, , ,999 2, $ 6,808,103,258 $ 85,834, $ 529, , ,999 2, $ 6,889,957,621 $ 81,854, $ 549, , ,999 2, $ 6,961,114,427 $ 71,156, $ 569, , ,999 2, $ 7,049,039,957 $ 87,925, $ 590, , ,999 2, $ 7,161,454,845 $ 112,414, $ 614, , ,999 1, $ 7,271,279,717 $ 109,824, $ 646, , ,999 1, $ 7,377,991,283 $ 106,711, $ 679, , ,999 1, $ 7,528,353,480 $ 150,362, $ 722, , ,999 1, $ 7,641,453,865 $ 113,100, $ 774, , ,999 1, $ 7,760,983,956 $ 119,530, $ 824, , ,999 1, $ 7,871,921,305 $ 110,937, $ 873, , , $ 8,038,128,298 $ 166,206, $ 944,358 1,000,000-1,099, $ 8,200,464,159 $ 162,335, $ 1,047,328 1,100,000-1,199, $ 8,339,185,535 $ 138,721, $ 1,146,458 1,200,000-1,299, $ 8,416,476,233 $ 77,290, $ 1,246,624 1,300,000-1,399, $ 8,490,504,592 $ 74,028, $ 1,345,970 1,400,000-1,499, $ 8,538,550,003 $ 48,045, $ 1,455,922 1,500,000-1,599, $ 8,603,718,704 $ 65,168, $ 1,551,636 1,600,000-1,699, $ 8,661,639,021 $ 57,920, $ 1,654,866 3

5 ACCUMULATED NUMBER ACCUMULATED INDEMNITY EXCESS LIMITS CLAIMS OF LOSSES AND RATIO AVERAGE (ADDED UP) CLAIMS (ADDED DOWN) MEDICAL 1,700,000-1,799, $ 8,700,324,220 $ 38,685, $ 1,758,418 1,800,000-1,899, $ 8,746,487,515 $ 46,163, $ 1,846,532 1,900,000-1,999, $ 8,773,936,000 $ 27,448, $ 1,960,606 2,000,000-2,999, $ 8,991,175,954 $ 217,239, $ 2,413,777 3,000,000-3,999, $ 9,076,750,689 $ 85,574, $ 3,422,989 4,000,000-4,999, $ 9,148,939,701 $ 72,189, $ 4,511,813 5,000,000-5,999, $ 9,188,013,611 $ 39,073, $ 5,581,987 6,000,000-6,999, $ 9,239,287,427 $ 51,273, $ 6,409,227 7,000,000-7,999, $ 9,239,287,427 $ #DIV/0! 8,000,000-8,999, $ 9,256,507,735 $ 17,220, $ 8,610,154 9,000,000-9,999, $ 9,256,507,735 $ #DIV/0! 10,000,000 - AND GREATER 7 7 $ 9,357,885,474 $ 101,377, $ 14,482,534 GRAND TOTALS 654,094 EXCLUDING CONTRACT MEDICAL $ 9,357,885,474 $ 14,307 4

6 Pennsylvania Compensation Rating Bureau Distribution of Losses Excess Loss Limits * Loss Number Excess Loss Average Empirical From TO (<) Amount of Claims Amount Excess Ratio 9,357,885, , ,650, ,525 7,736,545,405 1, ,000 15, ,640,574 18,241 7,353,674,831 12, ,000 20, ,202,230 11,101 7,041,852,601 17, ,000 25, ,275,621 7,480 6,775,441,980 22, ,000 30, ,121,743 5,443 6,540,875,237 27, ,000 35, ,751,322 4,283 6,330,508,915 32, ,000 40, ,357,120 3,348 6,138,966,795 37, ,000 50, ,375,332 5,049 5,799,311,463 44, ,000 75, ,977,093 6,797 5,102,509,370 61, , , ,363,642 3,970 4,535,470,728 86, , , ,647,605 2,985 4,051,523, , , , ,400,417 2,502 3,637,622, , , , ,384,452 2,544 3,285,100, , , , ,781,580 2,038 2,992,156, , , , ,189,368 1,552 2,742,442, , , , ,906,635 1,189 2,527,860, , , , ,962, ,338,835, , , , ,800, ,172,297, , , , ,978, ,023,760, , , , ,181, ,892,821, , , , ,103, ,775,584, , , , ,907, ,668,460, , , , ,690, ,571,749, , , , ,884, ,483,652, , , , ,093, ,403,271, , , , ,009, ,329,749, , , , ,403, ,090,245, , , , ,951, ,194, , , , ,462, ,831, , , , ,467, ,464, , ,000 1,000, ,206, ,757, , ,000,000 2,000, ,807, ,949,474 1,304, ,000,000 3,000, ,239, ,709,520 2,413, ,000,000 4,000,000 85,574, ,134,785 3,422, ,000,000 5,000,000 72,189, ,945,773 4,511, ,000,000 6,000,000 39,073, ,871,863 5,581, ,000,000 7,000,000 51,273, ,598,047 6,409, ,000,000 8,000, ,598,047 7,500, ,000,000 9,000,000 17,220, ,377,739 8,610, ,000,000 10,000, ,377,739 9,500, ,000,000 & Over 101,377, ,482,534 TOTAL/AVERAGE 9,357,885, ,094 14,307 * Limits consistent with published loss limits for excess loss factors Values have been interpolated when not available on prior pages 5

7 Death-Pareto PT-Lognormal PP-Pareto TT-Pareto Med only Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Loss Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Limit Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

8 Death-Pareto PT-Lognormal PP-Pareto TT-Pareto Med only Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Loss Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Limit Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio 50, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

9 Death-Pareto PT-Lognormal PP-Pareto TT-Pareto Med only Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Loss Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Limit Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio 110, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000, ,100, ,200, ,300, ,400, ,500, ,600,

10 Death-Pareto PT-Lognormal PP-Pareto TT-Pareto Med only Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Fitted Actual Loss Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Excess Limit Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio 1,700, ,800, ,900, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,

11 Pennsylvania Compensation Rating Bureau Cumulative Distribution of Loss By Type of Injury ( ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Death PT PP TT All 10