W h a t n e x t f o r C o l o m b i a, C h i l e & P e r u? E d w a r d G l o s s o p L a t i n A m e r i c a E c o n o m i s t
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1 W h a t n e x t f o r C o l o m b i a, C h i l e & P e r u? E d w a r d G l o s s o p L a t i n A m e r i c a E c o n o m i s t
2 1. Agenda What was behind the slowdown in Colombia, Chile & Peru? Will the recovery continue... or will politics throw it off course?
3 . Andean GDP* (% y/y) Commodities Downturn *Weighted average of Colombia, Chile and Peru Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
4 3. Estimated Loss Of Commodity Export Revenues (11-1 Peak to Trough, % of GDP ) Ven. Col. Chl. Per. Mex. Bra. Arg Sources: Comtrade, Capital Economics
5 4. Impact of lower commodity prices Weakened profits of mining firms. Lower investment, lower wages. Higher inflation and interest rates, caused by weaker currencies. Drop in government revenues.
6 5. Colombia Gov t Spending & Revenues (1m. Sum, % of GDP) VAT hike Revenue Expendi ture Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
7 6. Gov t Headline Budget Bal. (1m. Sum, % of GDP) 1 1 Chile 8 8 Peru 6 6 Colombia Sources: Thomson Reuters, CEIC, Capital Economics
8 7. GDP (% y/y) 3 H1 17 H Andes Peru Colombia Chile Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
9 8. Reasons to expect recovery to continue Commodity prices (and exports) to stabilise. Investment picking up. Fiscal policy boost (Colombia & Peru). Loose monetary policy.
10 9. Commodity Exports & Commodity Prices *17 is CE F'cast. Andean Commodity Exports* (US$bn, RHS) S&P GSCI Commodity Price Index (LHS) CE F'cast Sources: UN Comtrade, Capital Economics
11 1. Reasons to expect recovery to continue Commodity prices (and exports) to stabilise. Investment picking up. Fiscal policy boost (Colombia & Peru). Loose monetary policy.
12 11. Chile Business Investment and Equity Index 7 IPSA Equity Index (3m. Avg. % y/y, Adv 6m, LH S) 8 6 Fixed Investment - Machinery & Equi pment (% y/y, RHS) Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
13 1. Reasons to expect recovery to continue Commodity prices (and exports) to stabilise. Investment picking up. Fiscal policy boost (Colombia & Peru). Loose monetary policy.
14 13. Reasons to expect recovery to continue Commodity prices (and exports) to stabilise. Investment picking up. Fiscal policy boost (Colombia & Peru). Loose monetary policy.
15 14. Peru Consumer Prices (% y/y) 5 4 CE Forecast Central Inflation Target Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
16 15. Colombia Consumer Prices (% y/y) CE Forecast 8 7 Inflation Target Range Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
17 16. Colombia Policy Rate & CE Taylor Rule (%) Tayl or Rul e (%) Policy Interest Rate (%) CE Projection Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
18 17. Policy Interest Rate Forecasts* (%) End-18 End Colombia Peru Chile *Crosses indicate market pricing (Peru is consensus) Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
19 18. Key Macro Forecasts GDP CPI (% y/y) Policy Rate Latest 18* Latest 18** Colombia Chile Peru *Annual average, **end of period
20 19. Risk 1 Politics Peru s political crisis PPK has survived one impeachment vote but still possible he fails to complete his term. Risk of a lurch to the left in Colombia s legislative (11 th March) and presidential (7 th May) elections.
21 . Brazil CE Financial Conditions Indicator (%) Tighter financial conditions Congress launches impeachment proceedings against Dilma Temer "Tape" scandal Temer becomes President Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
22 1. Peru CE Financial Conditions Indicator (%) GFC peak = 4.9 Tighter financial conditions Odebrecht corruption scandal Sources: Thomson Reuters, Capital Economics
23 . Colombia Presidential Election Opinion Polls (%) 5 *Average of main polls taken so far in Gustavo Petro, Left Sergio Fajardo, Centre Left German Lleras, Centr e Right Iván Marquez, Centr e Right Humber to. Calle, Left O ther s Undecided Sources: Centro Nacional de Consultoría, Capital Economics
24 3. Colombia s lurch to the left? Fajardo and Petro would create macro risks for the medium term but a modest fiscal loosening could boost the economic recovery (an aggressive fiscal splurge would spook bond markets).
25 4. Risk FX Debt Chile & Peru have uncomfortably large foreign currency debt burdens. We think these large debts are a risk currently underappreciated by financial markets. FX debts are a key vulnerability since they can create balance sheet mismatches.
26 Arg. 5. Foreign Currency Debt (% of GDP, Latest) Ven. Chl. Per. Mex. Egy. Ecu. Uru. Pol. Col. S. Af. Rus. Cze. Idn. Sau. Brz. Kor. Chn. Ind. Tha Sources: Bloomberg, IMF
27 6. Risk FX Debt Not a risk to near term outlook most held by corporates (tends to be hedged) and at long maturities. However, would cause big macro problems if commodity prices and currencies fall sharply.
28 7. Conclusions We expect the region s economic recovery to continue over the course of this year as commodity export income stabilises. Inflation close to bottoming out, and easing cycles coming to an end. But chance of one or two more cuts in Colombia & Peru. Politics and FX debts are downside risks to m/t outlook, but shouldn t derail cyclical recoveries.
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