SSF s Adaptation and Security Webinar Series Session 5 Maintaining Economic Vitality in a Changing Climate March 22, :15 to 2:45 PM EDT

Transcription

1 SSF s Adaptation and Security Webinar Series Session 5 Maintaining Economic Vitality in a Changing Climate March 22, :15 to 2:45 PM EDT Moderator: Edward Saltzberg, Ph.D. SSF Managing Director Co-Produced by the ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability USA UPCOMING Webinar Series: Run Up to Rio +20 Higher Education and Industry Collaboration For free video archive access join the The Security and Sustainability Forum April 26, :15 2:45 PM EST An SSF ICLEI USA Co-Production 1

2 ICLEI Is Your Guide ICLEI USA: Supporting local governments committed to climate action, clean energy, and sustainability 2

3 UPCOMING Webinar Series: Run Up to Rio +20 Higher Education and Industry Collaboration April 26, :15 2:45 PM EST Thank you to our Sponsors! Also our Promotion Partners: 3

4 The benchmark standard for professional water services Managing water and wastewater services for public authorities and industry Designing technological solutions and building and managing the facilities and systems required to deliver these services Construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of networks and associated infrastructure 2009 Revenue $18.1 billion 95,000 employees Drinking water services to 95 million people Wastewater services to 68 million people Facilities managed +5,260 water +3,220 wastewater 4

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6 The benchmark standard for professional water services Managing water and wastewater services for public authorities and industry Designing technological solutions and building and managing the facilities and systems required to deliver these services Construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of networks and associated infrastructure 2009 Revenue $18.1 billion Drinking water services to 95 million people 95,000 employees Wastewater services to 68 million people Facilities managed +5,260 water +3,220 wastewater 6

7 Antioch University New England provides transformative education through scholarship, innovation, and community action for a just and sustainable society. 7

8 Agenda Introduction to the Panel: Ed Saltzberg Panel Presentations Karen Weigert: Addressing resilience in the City of Chicago Lykke Leonardsen : Addressing resilience in the City of Copenhagen Mindy Lubber: The business and investment sector role in the resilient city Lindene Patton: Maintaining Insurability in a changing climate Jeb Brugmann: Harnessing future benefits to finance municipal investments Panel Discussion Audience Q&As Summary Points and Thank you 8 An SSF ICLEI USA Co-Production

9 Karen Weigert, Chief Sustainability Officer for the City of Chicago, shares a US city planning perspective. Chicago's sustainability strategy is focused on mitigating climate change through energy efficiency and incorporating job creation to simultaneously bolster the local economy. Lykke Leonardsen, head of the Department for Strategy in the Centre for Parks and Nature at the Technical and Environmental Administration in Copenhagen, shares the experience of preparing the city's first strategy and plan for adapting to climate change. Mindy Lubber, President of Ceres, which leads a national coalition of investors, environmental organizations and other public interest groups, provides a risk framework for addressing sustainability challenges such as global climate change. Lindene Patton, Chief Climate Product Officer for Zurich Financial Services continues the climate risk discussion from an insurance perspective and explains why investment in sustainable infrastructure protects the insurability of the built environment and how climate risk is modeled. Jeb Brugmann, Managing Partner of The Next Practice Ltd., and founding Secretary General of ICLEI, and the author of Welcome to the Urban Revolution: How Cities Are Changing the World, addresses ways to attract conventional, private investment flows to climate and disaster risk reduction alternatives. An SSF ICLEI USA Co-Production 9

10 Sustainability in Chicago Karen Weigert March 22, City of Chicago 2012

11 Role of Cities Emissions per acre Emissions per capita Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Inventory. Forecast, and Mitigation Analysis for Chicago and the Metropolitan Region, City of Chicago 2012

12 Climate Impacts 12 City of Chicago 2012

13 Cities Adapt Lake Michigan Air Quality Hospitals & Emergency Response Buildings Homes Schools Chicago River Energy Utilities Roads, Alleys Green Space The L, Metra, & Freight Urban Forest 13 City of Chicago 2012

14 Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) Energy Efficient Buildings Clean & Renewable Energy Sources FIVE STRATEGIES Improved Transportation Options Reduced Waste & Industrial Pollution Adaptation 14 City of Chicago 2012

15 Adaptation Targets People Built Environment Natural Environment 15 City of Chicago 2012

16 Built Environment 16 City of Chicago 2012

17 Natural Environment 17 City of Chicago 2012

18 People 18 City of Chicago 2012

19 A climateproof Copenhagen

20 Climate challenges for Copenhagen More rain - 30% increase per year. Rising sea levels Rising temperatures - Urban heat island effect

21 Strategy We act where the risk of damage is high and where the estimated costs will be the highest We act on three levels: Prevent the risk of damage (Prevention) Minimize the extent of the damage Reduce vulnerability

22 Risk assessment Possibility * cost Ri

23 Risk assesment - linking probabilities with costs

24 A green and blue city- adapted to a future climate = higher quality of life Adaptation is not just a negative measure We can increase the recreational area and create a higher quality of life for copenhageners We can help make copenhageners more healthy We can create synergy with other planning We can increase biodiversity.

25 Adaptation can turn into green growth We can use the adaptation measures to stimulate economic growth A climate proof city is mores attractive to invest in The solutions we choose can stimulate both planning and technological innovation Therefore adaptation will be a part of the green growth strategy of Copenhagen

26 Risk assesment - Stormwater and sea level Estimated costs and the probability of damage show that rain is the most immediate threat But in 30 years time - the risk of flooding will be greater (and the damage higher Long decision process - complicated financing Consequences for urban development Therefore we must start planning now

27 The economy of adapting! Damages over the next 100 year Sea: Rain: Total: bill Euro bill Euro bill Euro. Adaptation measures Sea: Rain: Total: We save: 530 mill Euro 800 mill bill Euro bill Euro bill Euro.

28 Stormwater - adaptation measures - priorities Measure: Measure: Only traditional Sewage expansion Local drainage, surface management Damage costs - basis 2 bill Euro 2 bill Euro Damage costs - after measures Reduction in damage costs 730 mio Euro 230 mio Euro 1.3 bill Euro 1.8 bill Euro Cost of measures 1.5 bill Euro 850 mill Euro We save: -38,000 Euro 1 bill. Euro

29 Financing long term investments Many stakeholders Payment is not evenly spread Part of the city s financial plan for the period up to 2025

30 Financing storm water management solutions Traditional solutions - financing mechanisms are all clear Green Solutions - Unclear financing due to legislation that does not take climate change into account

31 Capital vs. revenue Revenue costs financing is also clear when it comes to traditional solutions (payed by water companies through the water fees) Revenue costs on green solutions are unclear - can it be financed by the water companies? Or the municipality (tax money)?

32 Reality Check - Copenhagen July 2nd 2011 More than 150 mm rain in 2 hours Damages above 1 billion US dollars (only insurances) Critical damage to infrastructure

33 Reality check!

34 Lykke Leonardsen

35 Maintaining Economic Vitality in a Changing Climate Planning for Economic Competitiveness Mindy Lubber President and CEO Ceres March 22, 2012

36 US National Disaster Declarations Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

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38 Development in Exposed Places is Driving Losses Marco Island, Florida

39 Exposure comes with a cost Regional economies may be becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme events One indicator is shrinking insurance coverage Insurance is crucial component of resilience Availability of insurance for the perils with the greatest potential for harm is a bellwether of future adaptive capacity

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41 Severity Frequency Risk Management Framework Risk Transfer Insurance, Risk Pool, ILS Risk Reduction Infrastructure, Emergency Planning Risk Prevention Building codes, Land use planning

42 Understanding risk is only the first obstacle to reducing risk Need to understand hazards in today s climate acknowledging that elevations & event return periods already may differ from historical observations and impacts of future scenarios Motivating individuals & institutions to adapt will require planners to communicate how actions that promote resiliency and adaptation also further stakeholders real priorities safe housing, stable communities, green space, job creation, revenue growth

43 Adaptation can drive economic development Home & infrastructure hardening creates construction jobs When adaptation makes a community more resilient to today s climate, can have measurable benefits for reducing insurance rates & increasing real estate values But adaptation can also have short term opportunity costs (not developing exposed land means no tax revenue) and long term costs if adaptive measures are overwhelmed by actual change

44 Financing Adaptation Example of opportunistic approach: use funding for energy efficiency retrofits to make buildings more efficient & resilient HomeStar, PACE bonds Going forward, adaptive planning may be critical determinant of regional economic competitiveness & cost of capital this argues for a more strategic approach

45 Adaptation in Capital Improvement Plans More than $1 trillion in standing infrastructure needs remain unmet for next 5 years alone Many municipalities & regions have high debt burdens anticipating future growth Institutional investors, credit rating agencies will increasingly look to CIPs for evidence of managing limits to growth including climate change impacts Source: American Society of Civil Engineers

46 As Future Spending May Be Constrained, Economic Imperative to Be Proactive on Adaptation Grows Source: Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government, New York Times, November 22, 2009

47 Thank you Mindy Lubber Ceres x130

48 Maintaining Economic Vitality in a Changing Climate: Using Intelligent Tools to Maintain Quality of Community March 22, 2012 Lindene Patton Zurich Financial Services

49 Disclaimer The information in this publication was compiled from sources believed to be reliable for informational purposes only. All information herein should serve as a guideline which you can use at your risk. We trust that you will use this information to reflect your own operations and believe that these samples may serve as a helpful platform for this endeavor. Any and all information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal advice and accordingly, you should consult with your own attorneys when developing actions, programs or policies. We do not guarantee the accuracy of this information or any results and further assume no liability in connection with this publication and sample policies and procedures, including any information, methods or safety suggestions contained herein. Moreover, Zurich reminds you that this cannot be assumed to contain every acceptable safety and compliance procedure or that additional procedures might not be appropriate under the circumstances The subject matter of this publication is not tied to any specific insurance product nor will adopting these policies and procedures ensure coverage under any insurance policy. Insurance coverages are underwritten by individual member companies of Zurich in North America, including Zurich American Insurance Company, or by an insurer from the Farmers Insurance Group of Companies. Certain coverages are not available in all states. Some coverages may be written on a non-admitted basis through licensed surplus lines brokers. 49

50 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Worldwide Natural Disasters Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 50

51 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Approximately 3.4 million people in the mid- Atlantic coastal region (about 10% of the U.S. population) live on land less than one meter above monthly highest tides ( Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, USEPA, 01/2009). Koch, J Climate Change, Global Warming and Ocean Levels in Hampton Roads The State of the Region Surging Seas, Climatecentral.org, March 2012 across the country, nearly 5 million people live in 2.6 million homes at less than 4 feet above high tide. In 285 cities and towns, more than half the population lives on land below this line, potential victims of increasingly likely climate-induced coastal flooding. 3.7 million live less than 1 meter above the tide 51

52 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Insurance Basics Private ex-ante financing structure When price signal implicitly questions the validity of dominant economic model, resistance and disbelief occurs e.g. the premium gets perceptively too high Public ex-post financing structures planning to pay for loss after the event often redistributing the loss repayment and or recovery costs to parties who neither suffered loss nor benefitted from the loss payments. ***As such, it is critical to focus on risk management because neither insurance nor any other financial, engineering, social or political tool can make a bad risk a good risk. Each can only, at best, manage and reduce risk to an optimal engineering, economic and socially efficient pattern. In the face of climate change, the challenge is to determine how each of these tools can be deployed to achieve optimal efficiency in a changing climatic environment. When the association between the creation and benefit associated with the risk because too removed from the liability / cost of the risk, the theory of expost financing may fail or be rejected by the marketplace or society at large. 52

53 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Capabilities and Effects Insurers Climate change impacts different insurers differently Share expertise to mitigate the economic risks. Restructure products / build new products ( 28 Feb 2011 RMS upgrades models) Consider more closely the increasing concentrations of exposure in coastal areas. Balance demand with resilience and use insurance to insert resilience through BETTERMENT ENDORSEMENTS Think proactively about on the ground response to flood events and work closely with government and disaster relief agencies on disaster planning. Consider the impact that an unstable climate could have on global asset values, which may generate a mismatch against insurance liabilities. 53

54 Levees: why hasn't something been done before? Some factors: Misunderstanding of flood risk National Flood Insurance Program uses the 1% annual chance flood (sometimes called the 100- year flood) as an actuarial standard. The 1% annual chance level of flood protection is not a safety standard, Many believe this protection means that a destructive flood will only occur on average every 100 years. In reality, it means that there is a 1% chance every year that a flood of that magnitude will occur, translating to a 26% chance of flooding during a typical 30-year mortgage. no single agency responsible for levee safety. Currently, responsibility for levee safety is dispersed throughout all levels of government and quasi-governmental agencies such as levee boards. There are no national standards for levee construction, inspection, or maintenance. 54

55 Adaptive Options Assessment Feasibility Vulnerability Costs Options Capacity Benefits 55

56 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Economic Impact Model Env. Data Sources Tools / Utilities Decision Making Scenario Generation Scenario Baseline Economic Datasets Scenario Perturbations GIS Data Sources Hydrography Land Use Elevation Data Meteorological Soils Data Data Ingest Climate Assessment Tool Hydrologic Simulation Natural Hazard Estimation Model Water Quality Sim Pervious Water Quality Sim - Impervious Post Processing User GUI Climate Analysis Predictions Watershed Analysis Infrastructure Analysis Climate Impact Effects Economic Impact Assessment Recommendation Reports User Supplied Data Pollutant Load Estimation Env. System Analysis Data Integration Existing Model / Toolsets Economic Impact Assessments Determining Economic impact via scenario perturbation to incentivize / enable decision making 56

57 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Benefits of Downscaled Modeling Climate change information required for many impact studies is of a spatial scale much finer than that provided by global or regional models. Integration of nonweather data such as tax base, damage estimates, transportation impacts, etc. Ultimately allows for better risk management and economic decision making. Some applicable links about COAST:

58 Increased Flooding Risk, Adaptation & Insurance Cost Benefit to Adaptive Actions The width of each bar in a cost curve represents the total potential of that measure to reduce expected loss up to 2030 for a given scenario. The height of each bar represents the ratio betwee costs and benefits for that measure. The range of measures from least to most cost-efficient align left to right. 58

59 5 Building the Resilient City Jeb Brugmann ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability

60 The modern city does not internalize natural risk 60

61 $200 trillion WHERE THE MONEY WILL BE ( ) $200 trillion $100 trillion 1000 x $10 trillion $200 billion $1.6 trillion $1 trillion 6 Pledged Int l Adaptation Funds Est. Total Urban Adaptation Costs Urban Fixed Assets

62 6 RISK Externality PERFORMANCE P-P Benefit RESILIENCE Resilience is the ability of an urban area or system to provide predictable, targeted benefits to residents and users, and predictable returns to investors, under a wide range of often unpredictable circumstances.

63 Vancouver: green performance 6

64 6 Vancouver: city of risks

65 PHOTO: TAXIARCHOS (GNU) 65

66 Retention pond HVAC upgrading Emergency egress Grade/street redesign Emergency power supply Rescue vehicles Storm water storage tank Roof maintenance New office/hotel/ residential tower New residential tower Water line upgrading Improved solid waste management Emergency shelter Permeable surfacing Park redevelopment Retention wall Retention pond 6 New light rail transit line Storm drain maintenance

67 HVAC upgrading Emergency egress Grade/street redesign Emergency power supply Roof maintenance New residential tower Storm water storage tank Rescue vehicles New office/hotel/ residential tower Protect Value National/subnational catastrophe bond Emergency shelter 6 Value capture financing of storm water storage & emergency power Conventional loans & equity finance; development bonusing; special bonds; revolving loan pools for egress upgrade Establishment of district re-development corporation or other SPV Establishment of special redevelopment district with risk mitigation in plan & building codes Capture Value Create Value Local Local Re-Development Re-Development Capacity Capacity Bottom-Up Planning & Design

68 Required Innovation in Professional Performance in Risk Reduction Measures Performance in Area or System Performance in Institutional Performance Financing Instruments Grants Catastrophe & Social Impact Bonds Insurance/ Re-insurance Securitization/ Structured Finance Value Capture (From Increased Property Values) Performance Contracts (Asset/System Cost Reductions) Custom Debt Instruments (Project-specific Municipal, Community, Utility Bonds) Equity Guarantees Loans (Banks, Revolving Funds) Project Deliverables Technical Assistance Training Other Institutional Support Risk Reduction Emergency Management Measures Specific Asset or System Performance Enhancements Place-specific Assets (real estate, infrastructure, utilities, amenities) Institutional Operations Capacity (utilities or special development corporations)

69 ICLEI + Brugmann + financing the resilient city

70 Panel Discussion Questions How can local governments work with private entities to increase community resilience, especially as it relates to business continuity or attracting new business investment? What are the opportunities for collaboration? 2. What is the first step for any local government in evaluating its climate risks and vulnerabilities? Where do you start? 3. In a reality where hundreds of cities could be initiating similar types of adaptation measures, and where these measures could be standardized and have similar financial risk and return profiles, what new investment and insurance instruments might become viable?

71 Audience QU E S T IONS & A NSWE R S E S S ION

72 Summary Points Many cities like Chicago and Copenhagen have started a process towards adapting to a changing climate with warmer, wetter and wilder weather Sustainability is part of a city s competitive advantage by helping to improve quality of life, economic opportunity, and infrastructure capacity. Resilient strategies offer co-benefits including job creation, avoided risk, and research opportunities Managing changing risk to preserve insurability is critical to our future capacity to adapt The work that planners do to set building codes, to create incentives or restrictions on building in hazardous areas, to plan defensive infrastructure, is absolutely critical to maintaining insurability, not as an end in itself but as a way of securing the financial stability and resilience of our economies. New decision support analysis tools will enable the consideration of climate change and severe weather events in planning, powered by increasingly sophisticated integrated assessment models. These same tool permit running alternate scenarios which evaluate the reduction of losses / interruption which would result if resilience investments were made Local communities will need to take action to apply these tools to secure themselves. When incorporated into total infrastructure planning and economic development, traditional financing instruments (TIFs, etc.) can be effective tools to encourage investment Municipalities can leverage private investments for infrastructure improvements. An SSF ICLE Co-Production 72

73 Thank you to our Sponsors! Also our Promotion Partners: An SSF ICLEI USA Co-Production 73

74 SSF s Adaptation and Security Webinar Series Session 5 Maintaining Economic Vitality in a Changing Climate March 22, :15 to 2:45 PM EDT Moderator: Edward Saltzberg, Ph.D. SSF Managing Director Co-Produced by the ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability USA UPCOMING Webinar Series: Run Up to Rio +20 Higher Education and Industry Collaboration For free video archive access join the The Security and Sustainability Forum April 26, :15 2:45 PM EST An SSF ICLEI USA Co-Production 74