SPANISH NATIONAL RISK SCENARIOS & ASSESSMENTS.

Transcription

1 SPANISH NATIONAL RISK SCENARIOS & ASSESSMENTS. INPUT INTO POLICIES ANGELA IGLESIAS General Directorate of Civil Protection (Ministry of Interior) Tf:

2 National System of Civil Protection Planning Law 17/2015, de 9 de julio, National System of Civil Protection in Spain. Basic Regulation in Civil Protection (Planes Actuaciones Emergencia) Territorial Planning (Generic Risks) For administrative regions and municipalities Special Planning (Specific Risks) No Basic Risk (Shared responsability: National, Regional, Local) Basic Risks (Only national responsability) Basic Guidelines for Civil Protection Planning Dang. Subs Wildfires Floods Eatrhqu Volcanoes Nat P. Nat P. Nat P. Nat P. Nat P. CECO CECO CECO CECO CECO Reg. 19 Reg 19 Reg 19 Reg10 Reg1 Local Local Local Local Local CECO: National Coordination Comitee War National Planning Nuclear Emergency National Planning

3 National System of Civil Protection Planning Basic Guidelines for Civil Protection Planning Special plans will be developed to address the specific risks whose nature requires a scientific methodology: forest fires floods earthquakes volcanic chemical emergencies In the planning preparation itshall be taken into account: Identification and analysis of risk and the assessment of its consequences. Risk zoning. Assessment of the event in real time for the application of timely protection measures. Composition of the operational structure of the Plan, whereas the incorporation of specialized agencies, and technical staff required. In the technological risks, actions and responsibilities of industrial definition. Characteristics of the information to the population differentiating the relative to the knowledge of the risk and the knowledge of the Plan. Establishment of early warning systems, so that emergency actions are eminently preventive. Specific measures of protection, both to protect and assist the population...

4 Process of National Risk Assessment in Spain PHASE 1: STABLISHIN FRAMEWORK 1) selection of a same objective area (national); 2) selection of a temporary window (short term); 3) definition of a same metric for risk (impact measure). PHASE 2: RISK ANALISYS -The analysis of natural hazards is based on overlapping layers of information from different sources that give rise to maps or models at different levels (hazard, exposure, vulnerability or risk), depending on available information that must be homogeneous for the whole country. - The analysis of man-made risks is based on quantitative methodology.

5 Local danger Forest fires data base 25 years /municipality Where/frequency? Affected area Forest fires Local danger Vulnerability Acording to the Forest Fires Planification guidelines (RD 893/2013) Every region in Spain must elaborate its own risk analys (peculiarities) Taking into account all the relevant parameters onsidered by each Region (Comparability and data interoperability) - Homogeneous data - Available for all the country Population density Infrastructures: motorways, railroads Natura 2000 network Vulnerability Related to the foresty surface by municipality Forest fires risk

6 According to the Floods National Plan, the Identification of the risk of flooding in Spain shall be carried out in accordance with that established in the Royal Decree 903/2010, from July 9, assessment and management of flood risks which transposes the European Directive of Floods (2007/60/EC). The development of the required mapping responds with homogeneous criteria for all Spanish basins (intercomunitarias-intracomunitarias). The national mapping of flood-prone zones (SNCZI) system, will be the map reference for evaluation and delimitation of the areas at risk of flooding and it also acts as database on floodplains. Methodological guidelines for the development of the national system of mapping of flood areas Floods

7 Earthquakes Acording to the Risk of Earthquake Planification guidelines (Resolución 5 mayo 1995) The seismic hazard maps published by the National Geographic Institute, in its latest version, have been used in the assessment of the seismic danger For the estimation of the vulnerability it has been included the constructions whose destruction, with reasonable probability, can cause victims, disrupting an essential service to the community or increase damage by associated catastrophic effects. As part of these studies, when they affect areas where earthquakes of intensity equal to or higher than 7 th are predicted, with return period of 500 years, a catalogue of the elements at risk on those area will be elaborated. This catalogue will include structures that are considered of particular importance, according to the classification established by the Standard for Earthquake-Resistant Construction (NCSE-94), approved by Royal Decree 2543 / 1994 of 29 December. Risk maps, approved by the provide accurate data about the likely consequences of a seismic catastrophe in the relevant territory,: potential victims, buildings damaged and destroyed, damage to the road infrastructure and supply networks, degree of involvement of essential facilities for emergency care possible damage to buildings, industries and infrastructure, possibly giving rise to dangers associated. This information allows to predict the means and resources necessary for the intervention, as well as locate the supporting infrastructures expected for the relief of the affected area.

8 Earthquakes Updated in 2015

9 Volcanic Acording to the Planification guidelines for the volcanic risk (Resolución de 21 de febrero de 1996) The National Geographic Institute is responsable for elaborating the Volcanic Risk Analisys. The National Coordination Comitee (CECO) approves it. A permanet Scientific Comitee is stablished in order to monitor the results.

10 Dangerous substances More than 300 establishments Seveso (high level) Risk analysis: - deterministic - quantitative analysis of risks (ACR): made by the own establishments Acording to the Planification guidelines for the chemical risk Accidental Scenarios Tiggering hypotesis- Substance (Lethal) Damage Frecuency (years -1 ) Approved by the Regional Organism

11 Dangerous substances Several related publications

12 Actors Involved in the Nationsa Risk Analysis FOCAL POINT TO PROMOTE THE NRA AND VALIDATE THE RESULTS PRIVATE SECTOR

13 THANK YOU!! ANGELA IGLESIAS Titulado superior de protección civil Tf: