Trending Now in Insurance and Reinsurance
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1 Trending Now in Insurance and Reinsurance Moderator: Leonard Schulte, Director of Legal Analysis and Risk Evaluation, FHF Panelists: Kevin ampion, Executive Managing Director, Aon enfield Lynne Mchristian, Florida Director of Disaster Response, Insurance Information Institute; Executive Director, Florida State University enter for Risk Management Education & Research Hurricane Wilma Florida Hurricane atastrophe Fund 1
2 Tracking the Insurance Trends Top Issues atastrophe osts onsolidation/m&a Autonomous Vehicles P/ Payouts / Property Losses 1 Insurance-related Deals Involving U.S. Firms 2 P2P insurance $15.4 $ % 2015 $ % ybersecurity DEALS VALUE Sharing Economy U.S. Insured at Losses $38 Workers omp Regulation Politics $ Loss Up Modestly ompared With 10- YearAaverage $19.1 (JAPAN) $6.3 (ERMUDA) Overcapitalization (Reinsurance) $ pending or completed M&As involving U.S. insurance companies (2016) 3 1. PS; 2. onning Research 3. S&P Financial
3 Insurance Disruption is Trending UP - Everywhere Natural Disasters / Man-Made atastrophes / Technology / Digitalization Fundamental hanges Opportunities hallenges InsurTech Telematics Speed in laims Process Future of Auto Insurance Marketing via Social Media uilding Automation & Efficiency with Digital Tools New Product Lines (yber) Improving ustomer Experience Improving Agency Experience onsumer Trust Increased all for Transparency ig Data vs. Individual Privacy Social Media Policy New Market Entrants Peer-to-Peer On-Demand Regulatory Opportunities/Threats arrier to Entry Automating ompliance Developing Psychic Powers
4 Example InsurTech ompanies Risk Health Insurance Marketplace Digital rokers Peer to Peer Health Navigators Micro-duration overage Telematics 1
5 State Politics Drives Insurance And Every State is Different D A D- AK + OR - WA + NV A ID A AZ A UT D HI D MT WY O NM D+ ND - SD NE KS - TX OK MN + IA MO + AR D LA A- WI + MI A IL D MS IN - TN - AL A- KY OH GA WV S - PA VA F N FL D+ NY A ME NH A- VT A+ MA D- RI + T + NJ - DE D MD + = A = = = D = F = NG Not Graded: District of olumbia Source: R Street Insurance Regulation Report ard, December 2016
6 hange in global reinsurer capital Global reinsurance capital stood at a peak level of USD595 billion at December 31, 2016, an increase of 5 percent relative to the prior year. Traditional capital rose 4 percent to 514 billion throughout 2016 USD (billions) % Alternative capital Traditional capital Global reinsurer capital % 18% % 18% % 11% % 5% 6% Source: Aon enfield Analytics 2
7 Reinsurance sector performance The 23 global reinsurers forming the Aon enfield Aggregate (AA), reported a return on common equity of 8.4 percent for the year, down from % 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% ombined Ratio % 4% 2% 0% Ordinary Investment Return The same group showed an increase in combined ratio, decline in ordinary investment return and decrease in valuation. 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Return on Equity Valuation - Price to ook Source: Individual company records, Aon enfield Analytics 3
8 Alternative capital deployment Alternative capital rose by 13 percent to USD81 billion over the year to December 31, 2016, principally reflecting additional deployment into collateralized reinsurance structures. 90 at onds Sidecars ILWs ollateralized Re 80 Limit (USD billions) Source: Aon Securities, Inc. 4
9 A.M. est riteria Developments New stochastic-based AR Evaluates capital adequacy at various confidence intervals: 95%, 99%, 99.5% and 99.6% onsiders PML exposure at 20yr, 100yr, 200yr and 250yr return periods PMLs will be on an All Perils basis Will still consider a 100yr stress test event est s redit Rating Methodology (RM) ontinue to focus on balance sheet strength, operating performance, business profile and ERM New AR provides a starting place: Proposed AR FSR >25 at 99.6 A >10 at 99.6 A / A- >0 at 99.5 A- / ++ >0 at / + >0 at 95 / - <0 at and below Impact on FL property companies New AR results provide a starting place for the rating, which can be notched up or down after considering other rating factors Under new AR, a company protecting to a 100yr event and a 20yr event can qualify for or - before any notching from other factors 5
10 Demotech Developments Suspended Guidance for FL insurers Driven by poor 2016 financial results and Demotech s concern of a deteriorating operating environment In particular, Demotech noted companies with less than $20m in surplus faced rating pressure No plan to issue new guidance in the near term Reinsurance Requirements Modified data call to provide a standard view PML More scrutiny on geographic concentration, data quality & assumptions, and alternative structures Still requiring companies to buy to a minimum 100yr first event and 50yr second event Impact on FL property companies ompanies at risk of downgrade responded by increasing surplus or entering into an acquisition While guidance is suspended, key benchmarks such as R and net PML to PHS are sill relevant 2017 R score with at Risk charge may put new rating pressure on companies 6
11 losing Thought It s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Attributed to Yogi erra. ut also attributed to Nobel-prize winning (1922) physicist Niels ohr Florida Hurricane atastrophe Fund 12
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