Consumer & Retail M&A Flash Report for 1 st Quarter Deal Advisory May 2017
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1 Consumer & Retail M&A Flash Report for 1 st Quarter 217 Deal Advisory May 217
2 Executive Summary Consumer & Retail Deal Activity at a Glance Deal Value Deal Volume US deal value from 1Q 216 to 1Q 217 US deal value from 4Q 216 to 1Q 217 US deal volume from 1Q 216 to 1Q 217 US deal volume from 4Q 216 to 1Q 217 3% 9% 25% 98% 3% 5% Largest US Transaction Closed in the Quarter US$3.5 billion stake acquisition in Procter & Gamble by Trian Fund Management LP US Valuation EBITDA Multiple Q KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 2
3 Executive Summary M&A Outlook US Consumer Confidence (1) US Consumer Sentiment (2) US Index of Consumer Expectations (2) Up 11.9 points from Dec 216 Down by points from 86.5 Dec 216 Down by 3. points from Dec 216 The US economy registered its weakest first quarter GDP growth (.7% annualized) in the last three years (215-17), primarily due to weak consumer spending and decline in government spending - The slowdown was partially offset by investment in business and housing and firm exports However, expectations related to tax cuts, infrastructure development and deregulations under the Trump administration continue to boost consumer confidence. A rebound is expected going forward in view of positive business and consumer confidence, and job market growth Europe entered its fifth year of economic recovery, with growth expected to continue at a steady pace in However, Europe elections and Brexit negotiations are to be monitored to assess any downside risk In emerging markets and developing economies, the economic activity is expected to pick up in 217, restrained by geopolitical concerns Although M&A fundamentals in Q1 217 remained weak at a global level, a recovery is expected. Increased clarity on measures being undertaken by the Trump administration in the US and anticipated forging of a new relationship between EU and the UK would be important deciding factors - This would be further supplemented by M&A as a key growth strategy for multinational companies pressurized for growth Source: 1) The Conference Board, Carol Courter, (Jan-Mar 217); 2) Univ. of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Richard Curtin, (Jun 217); 3) Consumer Goods M&A to Peak at Over USD 5 Billion in 218, Baker McKenzie, (Feb 217); 4) US first-quarter growth weakest in three years, as consumer spending falters, CNBC, (Apr 217); 5) Economic Snapshot for the Euro Area, FocusEconomics, (May 217) 217 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 3
4 Consumer & Retail: Deal Overview Deal mix by region (28-1Q 217) Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Volume of deals by region (1Q 217) Value of deals by region (1Q 217) USA 3% in Americas deal volume from Q4 216 to Q1 217 Canada USA 47% China in ASPAC deal volume from Q4 216 to Q1 217 Americas 36% ASPAC 2% ASPAC 15% EMEA 9% 22% in EMEA deal volume from Q4 216 to Q1 217 EMEA 44% Americas 76% Volume of deals by region (28-1Q 217) 12 Deal volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May 217 ASPAC EMEA Americas 217 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 4
5 Consumer & Retail: Deal Overview Global deals as of 1Q 217 (completed deals) Volume of deals Global 26% over 1Q % over 4Q 216 Deal volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Value of deals Global 66% over 1Q % over 4Q 216 Deal value (US$ bn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 5
6 Consumer & Retail: Deal Overview US deals as of 1Q 217 (completed deals) Volume of deals US 3% over 1Q 216 5% over 4Q 216 Deal volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Value of deals US 6 9% over 1Q % over 4Q 216 Deal value (US$ bn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 6
7 Consumer & Retail: Global Deal Overview Completed deals by sub-sector as of 1Q 217 Food & Drinks sub-sector witnessed the highest number of deals in 1Q 217, with majority of the deals valued under US$1 million Volume of deals by sub-sector Global (1Q 217) Value of deals by sub-sector Global (1Q 217) Retail sub-sector remained the strongest in terms of total deal value. The highest value (US$1.7 bn) deal recorded in retail was the acquisition of US-based Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen by Canada-based Restaurant Brands International in Feb 217 Consumer goods sub-sector witnessed the highest value deal in 1Q 217 the US$3.5 bn stake acquisition in P&G by Trian Fund Management in Feb 217 Retail 36% Consumer Goods 17% Food & Drinks 47% Retail 46% Food & Drinks 23% Consumer Goods 31% Volume of deals by sub-sector Global (28-1Q 217) 12 Deal volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Food & Drinks Consumer Goods Retail Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 7
8 Consumer & Retail: US Deal Overview Completed deals by sub-sector as of 1Q 217 Food & Drinks sub-sector witnessed a large number of deals, with no deal valued at more than US$5 million Volume of deals by sub-sector US (1Q 217) Value of deals by sub-sector US (1Q 217) Retail was the strongest sub-sector in terms of deal value and volume. The highest value (US$1.7 bn) deal recorded in retail was the acquisition of US-based Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen by Canada-based Restaurant Brands International in Feb 217 Consumer goods sub-sector remained slow in terms of the number of deals; however, it recorded the highest value deal in 1Q 217 the US$3.5 bn stake acquisition in P&G by Trian Fund Management in Feb 217 Retail 46% Food & Drinks 39% Consumer Goods 15% Retail 54% Food & Drinks 13% Consumer Goods 33% Volume of deals by sub-sector US (28-1Q 217) 25 Deal volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Food & Drinks Consumer Goods Retail Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 8
9 Consumer & Retail: Deal Overview Ten-year US deal multiples Consumer & Retail Average EV / EBITDA multiple Retail Average EV / EBITDA multiple Q Q17 Consumer goods Average EV / EBITDA multiple (a) Food and Drink Average EV / EBITDA multiple (b) Q Note: a) No deal multiples were available under the consumer goods sub-sector in 214; b) No deal multiples were available under the food and drink sub-sector in 1Q17 Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 9
10 Consumer & Retail: Deal Overview Top US deals for 1Q 217 Key Announced Deals (a) over 1Q 217 Deal Value Date Acquirer Target Sub-sector EV:EBITDA EV:EBIT EV:Sales (US$ mn) Feb-17 Trian Fund Management LP Procter & Gamble 3,5. Consumer Goods NA NA NA Feb-17 Restaurant Brands Intl Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 1,65.5 Retail Mar-17 Darden Restaurants Cheddars Scratch Kitchen 78. Retail NA NA NA Feb-17 AEA Investors LP Visual Comfort & Co 63. Retail NA NA NA Jan-17 Golden Gate Capital Bob Evans Farms Inc-Rest Div 615. Retail NA NA NA Jan-17 Coty Younique LLC 6. Retail NA NA NA Mar-17 Oak Hill Capital Partners LP Checkers Drive-In Restaurants 525. Retail NA NA NA Feb-17 Bonduelle SA Ready Pac Produce 49. Food & Drinks NA NA NA Mar-17 JBS USA Holdings Plumrose USA 23. Food & Drinks NA NA NA Feb-17 Maple Leaf Foods Inc Lightlife Foods Inc 14. Food & Drinks NA NA NA Jan-17 Bob Evans Farms Inc Pineland Farms Potato Co Inc 14. Food & Drinks NA NA NA Jan-17 Validus Holdings Ltd Archer Daniels Midland- Crop Risk Services Food & Drinks NA NA NA Note: a) Key deals mentioned on the basis of the deal value Source: KPMG Analysis; ThomsonOne Deals; all accessed May KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International 1
11 kpmg.com/socialmedia kpmg.com/app The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. 217 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.
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