European economy outlook and ship finance trends

Transcription

1 European economy outlook and ship finance trends Ferry Shipping Summit March 2018 Tanja Georg Assistant Vice President Maritime Industries Bank aus Verantwortung

2 Agenda 1. European Economy Outlook Implications for Ferry Owners / Investment Trends 3. Implications for Shipping Banks / Finance Trends 4. Financing Solutions 2

3 European Economy Outlook GDP growth continues GDP growth rates EU28 and Euro area Improved growth outlook Year GDP Euro area Improvement compared to autumn 2017 forecast ,4% +0, ,3% +0, ,0% +0,1 Source: European Commission Winter 2018 Economic Forecast 3

4 European Economy Outlook Continuing expansion in all member states GDP growth forecast % 3% 2% 1% Source: based on European Commission Winter 2018 Economic Forecast 4

5 European Economy Outlook Robust export growth despite a stronger Euro Euro: 7% appreciation since November Euro area exports rose by 1,5% q-o-q in Q Source: European Commission Winter 2018 Economic Forecast 5

6 European Economy Outlook Rising oil price with limited growth perspective Brent Oil Price in USD since March 2017 Rise in Oil price up to 70 USD/bbl in January Forecast 2018: 68,3 USD/bbl Forecast 2019: 64,2 USD/bbl Source: 6 6

7 European Economy Outlook Favourable financing conditions 3M Euribor vs 3M Libor Development Assumptions M LIBOR: 1,95% - 2,0% Further moderate increases in M EURIBOR: - 0,33% Monetary policy is keeping financing costs low. -1 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 3M Euribor 3M Libor Source: based on Bloomberg Finance L.P. 7

8 European Economy Outlook High level economic sentiment Highest level since 2008 Higher consumer and business confidence Improving labour market Best investment climate in 10 years Source: European Commission Winter 2018 Economic Forecast 8

9 European Economy Outlook Solid expansion outlook with external downside risk potential Brexit impact More protectionist policies High level economic sentiment Best investment climate in 10 years US Policies Geopolitical tensions Sharp correction in financial markets Tighter global financial conditions 9

10 Implications for Ferry Owners Ferry Markets: Characteristics and Drivers Highly fragmented regional market Development of regional economic growth Infrastructure like market Port facilities Government support Concession driven Operation in ECA- Areas New and stricter Emmission regulations Relatively high average age of fleet Accelerated fleet renewal New technologies 10

11 Implications for Ferry Owners Investment Trends Investment opportunities across all shipping sectors Investment trends ferry markets Fleet Renewal Green Shipping Digitalization and New Technologies Source: based on Norton Rose, Hellenic Shipping News, 29/06/

12 Implications for European Shipping Banks Financing Threats and Trends Typical for Ferry Market Increasingly stricter capital requirements Economic Capital as limiting Factor Involve ECAs Finance for strong corporates Stable shipping sectors Non-bank financing more important Asia pacific players more active Provide finance mix Provide network Specialize 12

13 Implications for European Shipping Banks Banks financing solutions to the required investment trends Post Delivery Financing ECA Financing ECA-Equipment based financing IT Equipment based financing Fleet Renewal Green Technology Digitalization for Established Companies 13

14 Contact Tanja Georg KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH Palmengartenstraße Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel: Bank aus Verantwortung