Jefferson Lab User s Workshop and Annual Meeting The Next Seven Years. Report from APS. Michael Lubell APS Director of Public Affairs

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1 Jefferson Lab User s Workshop and Annual Meeting The Next Seven Years Report from APS Michael Lubell APS Director of Public Affairs American Physical Society

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4 U.S. Physics Publications Stagnant United States Western Europe Rest Physical Review Submissions

5 Foreign Countries Rapidly Build S&T Infrastructure Number of Phd's More Ph.D.s Thousands United States Asia (Chn, Ind, Jpn, S.Korea, Twn Degrees Granted in Engineering, Natural Sciences, and Math/Comp. Sciences, by Region Larger United Increases States Asia in Applications (Chn, Ind, Jpn, S. Kor, Twn) for U.S. Patents 900% South Korea Taiwan Percentage Increase Since % 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% Israel Australia United States Japan Germany France United Kingdom US Residents Submit Majority of Applications Larger Share of S&T publications Asia United States Western Europe Source: 2002 NSF Science and Engineering Indicators R&D JOBS

6 Fewer Americans Studying these Fields Graduate Students in Engineering, Physical Sciences, & Math/Comp. Sciences in U.S. institutions Full-Time Graduate Students 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 U.S. Students and Permanent Residents Foreign Students 50, Source: National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Suties: Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering: Fall 2001 Relative Change in Bachelors Degrees Awarded Since Biological sciences/life sciences Physical sciences and science technologies Engineering Mathematics Computer and information sciences +71% % -21% -28% -36% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), "Degrees and Other Formal Awards Conferred" surveys, and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), "Completions" surveys. From Statement of Scott Donnelly, Senior Vice President for Global Research, General Electric Company, Before the House Science Committee, SubCommittee on Research, March 13, 2002.

7 Students and Federal Funding Show High Correlation Federal R&D, $M, non-biomedical (constant 1996 dollars) Year Bachelor s Degrees in Physical Sciences, Math, Engineering Budget Data Table D in National Patterns of Research and Development Resources: 2000 Data Update (NSF Pub ), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Also, the NIH Almanac (NIH Pub. 01-5), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, Student Data Science and Engineering Degrees (NSF Pub ), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, Pre-1966 data: Science and Engineering Degrees: A Source Book. Special Edition. National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 1982.

8 Declining Share of GDP invested in Physical Sciences,Engineering, Math & Computer Sciences Percent of GDP 0.28% 0.26% 0.24% 0.22% 0.20% 0.18% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% Ratio of Federal Funding for Physical Sciences, Engineering and Math & Computer Sciences to GDP

9 Trends in Federal Research by Discipline, FY obligations in billions of constant FY 2003 dollars $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development FY 2001, 2002, and 2003, FY 2002 and 2003 data are preliminary. Constant-dollar conversions based on OMB's GDP deflators. AUGUST ' AAAS Life Scis. Engineering Physical Scis. Env. Scis. Math / Comp. Scis. Social Sciences Psychology Other * * - Other includes research not classified (includes basic research and applied research; excludes development and R&D facilities)

10 Composition of the Proposed FY 2005 Budget Total Outlays = $2.4 trillion Other mandatory Net interest Defense discretionary [Defense R&D] Int'l discretionary Medicaid Domestic discretionary Medicare Social Security [Nondefense R&D] Note: Projected Unified deficit is $363 billion. Source: AAAS, based on Budget of the United States Government FY FEB. ' AAAS

11 Federal Budget Deficit (or Surplus), FY in billions of CONSTANT FY 2004 dollars Data in fiscal years. Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY FY 2004 data are estimates. FY data are budget projections. FEB. ' AAAS Unified budget (incl. Social Security) On-budget (without Social Security)

12 FY 2005 R&D Request Percent Change from FY 2004 DHS DOT NASA NSF NIH DOE USDA Interior Commerce VA EPA DOD "S&T" -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: AAAS, based on OMB R&D Budget Data and agency estimates for FY DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories plus medical research. MARCH '04 REVISED 2004 AAAS

13 Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY in billions of constant FY 2004 dollars NIH All Other Nondefense R&D NASA Source: AAAS analysis Projected Effects of President's FY 2005 Budget on Nondefense R&D APRIL ' AAAS

14 Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY in billions of constant FY 2004 dollars DOE nondef NSF USDA Commerce DHS * Source: AAAS analysis Projected Effects of President's FY 2005 Budget on Nondefense R&D. * - Includes DHS nondefense and defense R&D. APRIL ' AAAS

15 Federal Homeland Security R&D, by Agency (budget authority in millions of dollars, FY ) 4,000 All Other Nat'l. Science Foundation 3,000 NASA 2,000 Health & Human Services EPA 1,000 Homeland Security Defense 0 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 Agriculture Source: AAAS, based on Office of Management and Budget data. FY 2005 figures represent President's request. FEB. ' AAAS

16 Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY % change from FY 2004 funding level in constant dollars 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% NIH NASA DOE nondef. NSF USDA Commerce EPA Interior Source: AAAS analysis Projected Effects of President's FY 2005 Budget on Nondefense R&D APRIL ' AAAS