Physical Science Funding Crisis

Transcription

1 Physical Science Funding Crisis or just imagine how bad it would be if they didn t think the physical sciences were important Board on Physics and Astronomy 26 April 2008 Michael S. Turner Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics aaas.org/spp, ostp.gov/cs/rd_budgets, science.doe.gov, nsf.gov

2 The Big Picture

3 From the Top 1. US: $13.1T/2.9% 2. China: $10.2T/11% 3. Japan: $4.2T/2.2% 4. India: $4.2T/9.4% 5. Germany: 2.6T/2.8% 6. UK: $1.9T/2.8% 7. France: $1.9T/2.2% 8. Italy: $1.8T/1.9% 9. Russia: $1.8T/6.7% 10. Brazil: $1.7T/3.7% 11. Korea: $1.2T/5% 12. Canada: $1.2T/ 2.8% 13. Mexico: $1.2T/4.8% 14. Spain: $1.1T/3.9% Americas EU World GDP = $66T/5.1% Asia 1. Asia: $19.8T 2. Americas: $15.5T 3. EU: $14.9T Source: CIA Databook, 2006 data

4 Projected to China: $31T 2. US: $18T 3. India: $11T 4. Japan: $5.3T 5. Russia: $3.5T 6. Germany: $3.4T 7. UK: $2.5T 8. Brazil: $2.5T 9. France: $2.4T 10. Italy: $2.2T 11. Korea: $2.0T 12. Mexico: $1.9T 13. Canada: $1.6T 14. Spain: $1.6T World GDP: $110T 19TW!

5 Trends in Global R&D Investment typically 2% to 3% of GDP, but difficult to directly compare rising: Asia (China, Japan, Korea) flat: Europe and Americas

6 US ~ 1/3

7 World is getting flatter! APS Members: 2.3x Papers: ~8 to 10x

8 Global Science Trends The World is Flat: three equally powerful regions (in GDP and R&D) American half-century of dominating science is over Dominance no longer possible (or desirable) but leadership is Convergence of Interests (hot or cold everywhere tightly coupled system) e.g., Nano research: 1B in Americas, 1B in Asia, 1B in Europe 2 to 3% of GDP rule Collaboration on mega-projects (> $1B) ALMA, ITER, LHC, ILC?

9 Trends in the U.S. Spherical Cow Model of US Government Very Large Insurance Company with an Army $3T Budget = $2T Mandatory (SS, Medicare/cal, Debt, SSI) + $0.5T for defense + $0.5T for Nondefense, Discretionary (currently, with $0.5T deficit)

10 Federal Budget: ~20% of GDP NB: deficits for 46 of last 50 years

11 13%: A Constant of Nature?

12 Defense: growth to ~60% of total NB: Federal R&D ~1/3 US Total

13 Bush Clinton Sputnik Reagan Bush WWII Michael S Turner

14 Much of the recent growth is NIH

15 The 2009 Pie (proposed)

16 OSTP/OMB 2005 Priorities The Jack Daniels Letter 1. Combat Terrorism 2. NNI 3. NITRD 4. Molecular-level Understanding of Life 5. Energy & Environment

17 OSTP/OMB 2006 Priorities Jack Bolten Letter 1. Homeland Security 2. Network and IT R&D 3. NNI 4. Priorities of the Physical Sciences 5. Biology of Complex Systems 6. Climate, Water, &Hydrogen

18 OSTP/OMB 2007 Priorities Jack Bolten Letter 1. Homeland Security R&D 2. Hi-end Comp & Network R&D 3. NNI 4. Priorities of the Physical Sciences 5. Biology of Complex Systems 6. Energy & Environment

19 OSTP/OMB 2008 Priorities Jack Portman Letter 1. Homeland Security 2. Energy Security 3. Advanced Networking & Hi-end Comp 4. NNI 5. Biology of Complex Systems 6. Environment

20 OSTP/OMB 2009 Priorities OSTP/OMB 2009 Priorities Jack McMillin Letter 1. Homeland Security & National Defense 2. Environment and Climate Change Tech Security 3. Adv Networking & Information Tech 4. NNI 5. Biology of Complex Systems 6. Next Generation Air Transport System 7. Federal Scientific Collections 8. Science of Science Policy

21 Recent Winners: NIH, NSF, DOE Office of Science

22 Winners at DOE: BES, ASCR Losers at DOE: HEP (firesale?)

23 NSF: MPS has done well

24 NASA: Science being squeezed out

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26 NASA SCIENCE: The Numbers astro planned to decline after Budget in Billions Astrophysics

27 NASA SCIENCE: The Numbers astro planned to decline after SCIENCE Earth Planetary Astro Helio

28 Falling Dollars in More Basic Research (6.1, 2 and 3) at DoD

29 National R&D Trends 13% rule for Federal R&D investment Largest recent growth in Defense, DHS and NIH Some growth at NSF, DOE Office of Science Growing imbalance between physical and life sciences: NIH from 1/3 to ½ of total R&D NASA does not have a budget that fits its mission DoD: steady drift toward more applied Michael S Turner

30 The Current Mess: 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010

31 American Competitiveness Initiative January 31, 2006: A Very Good Night for Science Or Was It?

32 State of the Union State of the Union 31 January 2006 And to keep America competitive, one commitment is necessary above all: We must continue to lead the world in human talent and creativity. Our greatest advantage in the world has always been our educated, hardworking, ambitious people -- and we're going to keep that edge. Tonight I announce an American Competitiveness Initiative, to encourage innovation throughout our economy, and to give our nation's children a firm grounding in math and science.

33 First, I propose to double the federal commitment to the most critical basic research programs in the physical sciences over the next 10 years. This funding will support the work of America's most creative minds as they explore promising areas such as nanotechnology, supercomputing, and alternative energy sources. DOE Office of Science (14%); NSF (8%); NIST Core (18%)

34 NIH: $28B

35 The President s New Equation Investment in Math & Physical Science = Investment in Defensive of America Investment in Future Economic Well Being of America

36 Best Laid Plans 2006 Strong support all around for ACI, but no budget passed 2007: Jan: CR passed on 31 January with a miraculous plus for science but only half of what President proposed Feb: President stays the course in the 2008 budget Spring/SummerHouse and Senate add still more money in mark ups ; Senate passes no budget bills. Dec: Ominous bill small increases, some rearrangements, but little money; science survives until the final hours 2008: ACI in President s State of Union (by his insistence!) President stays the course in the 2009 budget Budget likely, CR an almost certainty; year long (at 08 level)?

37 Budget Craziness NSF actual NSF request DOE S/C actual DOE S/C request B 5.58B 3.63B B +6.1% 6.02B +7.9% 3.80B +4.7% B +1.8% 6.43B +6.8% 3.93B* +3.5% 09 req 6.85B +13.6% 6.85B +6.5% 4.72B +18.9% 3.63B 4.10B +13% 4.40B +7.3% 4.72B +7.2% NSF 400M behind, DOE 500M behind President on track; 2009 = heavy lift

38 2008 DOE S/C in Detail Insight to New Congressional Priorities DOE S/C 08 actual 08a-07a 08a-08r ASCR BER NP BES HEP FE 351M 544M 433M 1270M 689M 287M +75M +64M +21M +49M -43M -25M +11M +12.5M -39M -229M -94M -141M Everyone likes high-end computing (ORNL, ANL) Biofuels, climate, genomics RHIC, CEBAF ops; slow construction Facilities closed or curtailed; construction SLAC, FNAL RIFs; B- factory; Nova; ILC ITER (stick in the eye of Bush) Net +151M, but relative to expectations = -570M

39 Budget Craziness in Detail Some Insight to Congressional Priorities 07 act 08 req 08 act 09 req EERE 938M 888M 1238M 1025M +400M landed here! NIST (core) 490M 590M 590M 630M

40 Supplemental for Science? attached to Iraq War Spending Bill Real appreciation of the damage done by the Ominous Bill (e.g., HEP, BES facilities, ITER) Advancing is the physical sciences is a jointly held priority (ACI, America Competes) Current Status: $350M proposed ($250M for DOE + $100M) vs. ~$1B to make science whole (Bart Gordon et al); must be enacted before 1 June 50/50 chance, up from less than 1% in December Mike Lubell, APS With the possibility of a year-long CR in 2009 this is really important (would boost the CR level) but, this is the last train out of the station

41 Dark Clouds No budget likely until after election (March 09) and then what (new priorities: e.g., climate/energy) No budget preparations for 2010 by current administration Research earmarks at record levels ($2B/$17B of total earmarks; $1.1B/DoD, $124M/DOE, $83M/NIST) Giant increases (15 to 20%) needed to stay on the ACI/Innovation path in a time of very tight budgets Growing deficit (now $500B NonDefense Discretionary) and National Debt ($9T) and mandatory expenses Dysfunctional federal budget process: disconnect between Congress + President s budget, budgets not passed on time (if at all)

42 Growing Pressure of Mandatory Spending

43 CHAOS Everything is coming unglued in DC Congress flipped (transients have not died out) New Administration (party not know) Recession, war, partisan bickering, and everybody is acting crazy

44 A Vision for U.S. Science in the 21 st Century Maintain Strong Leadership Role in a Time of Significant Global Change To Benefit the Nation and Science

45 Desirable Candidate Pledges FY 2009 budget passed quickly (NLT Feb 2009) ACI/Innovation put on track Science Advisor named by March and key science positions filled by summer Strong action for young investigators (boost morale) Mission and budget for NASA that are commensurate Rationalize budget process (predictable process & budgets more important than level) De-politicize and raise the profile of science Beginning formulating an energy/climate strategy Appreciation of importance of discovery science (critical long term part of science portfolio) currently has a tenuous existence (cf, remarks of Mike Holland)

46 Fruits of Basic Research: Game Changing Ideas Michael Faraday to the British Finance Minister who asked, This is all very interesting, but what use is it? Sir, I do not know, but someday you will tax it. Leon Lederman (to anyone who will listen) on quantum theory: Quantum Mechanics accounts for 1/3 rd of the U.S. GDP

47 Michael S Turner

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50 The Current Mess: 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010

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52 Federal R&D ~ 1/3 Total ~ 1% GDP

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