Federal Budget Landscape and Portfolio Planning

Transcription

1 Federal Budget Landscape and Portfolio Planning New Telescope Meeting September 4-6, 2012 Princeton, NJ Jon A. Morse Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 6 September 2012

2 R&D in the Federal Budget 2

3 R&D in the Federal Budget 3

4 CBO Deficit Analysis and Forecast 4 ~$500 B/yr shortfall Assumes Bush-era tax cuts expire

5 CBO Projection of Non-defense Discretionary Spending for BCA-2011 and Sequestration * From CBO s October 26, 2011, testimony to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction 5

6 AAAS Analysis of Non-defense R&D Budget Proposals 6

7 7

8 Percentage Change from FY 2008 NASA Budget Details (Cont.) 50% NASA Science and Aeronautics Funding Levels: Trends from FY 2008 to FY % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% FY2008 FY2009 (incl. ARRA) * NASA/SMD Astrophysics Budget includes the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 PBR NASA/SMD Astrophysics NASA/SMD Earth Science NASA/SMD Planetary Science NASA/SMD Heliophysics NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) NASA Aeronautics (ARMD) Space Science Budgets (Astro+Helio+PSD): FY2008: $3.245B FY2013: $3.126B Lower by -$119M!! 8

9 Budget Realities: NASA-APD Budget Projections Not JW: FY11 PBR Need to retain this budget wedge for Astrophysics! Not JW: FY12 PBR Not JW: FY13 PBR From NASA Presentation to Astrophysics Subcommittee of the NAC, July 2012 (amended) 9

10 From NASA Presentation to Astrophysics Subcommittee of the NAC, July

11 Portfolio Planning

12 The Future is Now Decadal Surveys consistently advocate for scientific and programmatic balance Mission development time ranges from ~5 yrs to >20yrs, depending on size Mission development over the next five years is quantized ~$50M (MO), ~$160M (SMEX), ~$280M (EX), ~$3.5B (remainder of JWST) Strategic mission balance suffers from all-or-nothing approach to flagships in the absence of sufficient top-level funding that allows the missing medium missions and tech development Planning the future: NASA studies of NRO 2+ telescopes; PAG inputs to science plan NRC-SSB/BPA CAA analysis and Mid-Decade Review Astro2020

13 2010 Decadal Survey (Astro2010): New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy & Astrophysics Lead with the Science Executive and Legislative Branches each support NAS/NRC-led consensus process 13

14 Keys to Future Planning If scientific balance (area of study), programmatic balance (mission size), & flight rate are important When devising the next generation of strategic missions, confront budget realities (especially in view of the post-jwst hangover) and allow cost and schedule to be a driver of future large mission planning or be prepared to live with large (>10 yr) gaps between missions and the collapse of entire science areas Need to enable future (large) missions through prudent on-orbit technology demonstration of daunting performance requirements & be willing to pay for it (or get someone else to) JWST has failed to attain significant cost reductions through the use of advanced, largely untested, technologies (ie., faster, better, cheaper ISN T faster or cheaper) Need to re-invent strategic international planning Fight for our budget allocation!

15 Backup

16 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly 16

17 Federal FY2014 Priorities Within research portfolios, agencies are encouraged to identify and pursue Grand Challenges ambitious goals that require advances in science, technology and innovation to achieve. Multi-agency priorities: Advanced Manufacturing Clean energy Global climate change R&D for informed policy-making and management Information Technology Research and Development Nanotechnology Biological innovation STEM Innovation and Commercialization 17

18 The Federal Budget Cycle * From NASA Town Hall presentation at January 2012 AAS meeting, Austin, TX 18

19 NASA Budget Details ($M) Org FY2008 FY2009 (incl. ARRA) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 PBR NASA/SMD Astrophysics $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, NASA/SMD Earth Science $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, NASA/SMD Planetary Science $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, NASA/SMD Heliophysics $ $ $ $ $ $ NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) $ 4, $ 4, $ 4, $ 4, $ 5, $ 4, NASA Aeronautics (ARMD) $ $ $ $ $ $ NASA Space Technology - - $ $ $ $ NASA FY2013 Budget Priorities: Developing a heavy-lift rocket and crew capsule, with an un-crewed test flight planned for as early as 2017 and a crewed flight as early as Continuing the commitment to fully using the International Space Station as a National Laboratory, as a unique platform to enable future exploration Embracing partnership with the U.S. commercial space industry to enable safe, reliable, and cost effective access to low Earth orbit for crew & cargo, reduce American reliance on foreign services. Pursuing a portfolio of research and technology investments that will increase the nation s capability to operate in space and enable long-term deep space exploration. Continuing toward launch in 2018 of the James Webb Space Telescope. Pacing the development of our Mars science program. Taking care of Earth by providing critical long-term data that will help understand our planet s changes and enable more effective responses to natural disasters, and to track and address potential threats from near-earth asteroids, solar flares, space weather. Conducting cutting edge aeronautics research focused on enhancing aviation safety and efficiency of aircraft and the airspace, increasing performance and reducing environmental impacts. 19