Japan's Fiscal Condition

Transcription

1 Provisional translation Japan's Fiscal Condition January 215 Ministry of Finance

2 Table of Contents (1) Fiscal Condition 1 (2) Trends in General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues 2 (3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio 3 (4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding 4 (5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments 5 (6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate 6 (7) Transition of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account 7 (8) General Account Revenues 8 (9) General Account Expenditures 9 (Reference 1) General Government Financial Balances (International Comparison) 1 (Reference 2) General Government Gross Debt (International Comparison) 11 (Reference 3) General Government Net Debt (International Comparison) 12

3 (1) Fiscal Condition Revenues Expenditures General Account Budget (Revenues and Expenditures) (Unit: billion yen) FY213 (Initial budget) FY214 (Initial budget) FY215 (Draft budget) Tax Revenues 43,96. 5,1. 54,525. Other Revenues 4,53.5 4, ,954. Government Bond Issues 42, ,25. 36,863. Pension-related Special Deficit-financing Bond Issues 2, Total 92, , ,342. National Debt Service 22, , ,45.7 Primary Expenditures 7,37. 72, ,891.2 Social Security 29, , ,529.7 Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 16, , ,535.7 Total 92, , ,342. Bond Dependency Ratio 46.3% 43.% 38.3% General Account Primary Balance -23, , ,412.3 (Note1) General Account Primary Balance is calculated by subtracting Primary Expenditures from the sum of Tax Revenues and Other Revenues: It is different from the Central Government Primary Balance on SNA basis. Debt Situation (Unit: trillion yen) As of end-fy213 (Actual) As of end-fy214 (Estimated) As of end-fy215 (Draft budget) Government Bonds Outstanding (General Bonds Outstanding) Percentage of GDP 154% 158% 156% Long-term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments 972 1,9 1,35 Percentage of GDP 21% 25% 25% (Note2) GDP for FY213: Actual; FY214: Estimates; FY215: Outlook 1

4 (2) Trends in General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues (trillion yen) Flow (Unit: trillion yen) Bond Dependency Ratio General Account Primary Balance Stock (Unit: trillion yen) Government Bonds Outstanding (General Bonds Outstanding) Long-term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments FY % As of end-fy215 (Percentage of GDP) 87(16%) 1,35 (25%) Total Revenues Special Deficit-Financing Bond Issues Construction Bond Issues Total Expenditures (FY) (Note1)FY : Settlement, FY214: Including draft supplementary budget, FY215: Draft budget (Note2)Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY199 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY211 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY212,213 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half of basic pension. (Note3)General Account Primary Balance is calculated by subtracting Primary Expenditures from the sum of Tax Revenues and Other Revenues: It is different from the Central Government Primary Balance on SNA basis

5 (3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio 6 (trillion yen) 6 Bond Dependency Ratio (right axis) Government Bond Issues (left axis) Construction Bond Special Deficitfinancing Bond (FY) (Note1) FY : Settlement, FY214: Including draft supplementary budget, FY215: Draft budget (Note2) Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY199 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY211 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY212, 213 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half of basic pension. (Note3) In calculation of Bond Dependency Ratio, it is defined as dividing Government Bond Issues by Total Expenditures. Furthermore, "Temporary Bond", issued with securing future redemption sources such as creation of special tax, etc. is excluded. (Note4) In calculation of Bond Dependency Ratio in FY211, reconstruction-related expenditures, which are managed in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake after FY212 and not included in the General Account Expenditures, are included. If all reconstruction-related expenditures are excluded from General Account Expenditures, Bond Dependency Ratio in FY211 is 46.7%

6 (4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding (trillion yen) Equivalent to approx. 15 years of General Account Tax Revenues (Tax Revenues in FY215 General Account Budget: Approx. 55 trillion) FY215 Government Bonds Outstanding Approx. 87 trillion (projection) Approx million per person Approx million per family of 4 Reconstruction Bonds Average disposable income of a working 421 Construction family 222 Bonds Approx million (Note) Disposable income and family size are based on the "FY Survey of Household Economy" by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Special Deficit Financing Bonds (As of the end of FY) (Note1) FY : Actual, FY214: Estimate, FY215: Outlook (Note2) Special Deficit-financing bonds outstanding include refunding bonds for long-term debts transferred from JNR Settlement Corporation, the National Forest Service, etc., Ad-hoc Special Deficit-financing bonds, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-financing bonds and Pension-related Special Deficit-financing bonds. (Note3) Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds issued (FY211: in General Account, after FY212: in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake) as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214 : 9.4 trillion yen, FY215: 1.3 trillion yen) (Note4) The estimate of FY215 excluding front-loading issuance of refunding bonds is approximately 775 trillion yen

7 (5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments (Unit: trillion yen) As of end As of end As of end As of end As of end As of end As of end As of end As of end As of end FY1998 FY23 FY28 FY29 FY21 FY211 FY212 FY213 FY214 FY215 <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Estimate> <Draft budget> Central government Government bonds outstanding (General bonds outstanding) As a percentage of GDP Approx. 39 Approx.493 Approx. 573 Approx. 621 Approx. 662 Approx. 694 Approx. 731 Approx. 77 Approx. 89 Approx. 837 (Approx. 387) (Approx. 484) (Approx. 568) (Approx. 613) (Approx. 645) (Approx. 685) (Approx. 72) (Approx. 747) (Approx. 78) (Approx. 85) Approx. 295 Approx. 457 Approx. 546 Approx. 594 Approx. 636 Approx. 67 Approx. 75 Approx. 744 Approx. 778 Approx. 87 (Approx. 293) (Approx. 448) (Approx.541) (Approx. 586) (Approx. 619) (Approx. 66) (Approx. 694) (Approx. 721) (Approx. 749) (Approx. 775) 58% 91% 112% 125% 133% 141% 149% 154% 158% 16% (57%) (89%) (11%) (124%) (129%) (139%) (146%) (149%) (152%) (154%) Local governments Approx. 163 Approx. 198 Approx. 197 Approx. 199 Approx. 2 Approx. 2 Approx. 21 Approx. 21 Approx. 21 Approx. 199 As a percentage of GDP Central and Local governments As a percentage of GDP 32% 4% 4% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 41% 39% Approx. 553 Approx. 692 Approx. 77 Approx. 82 Approx. 862 Approx. 895 Approx. 932 Approx. 972 Approx. 1,9 Approx. 1,35 (Approx. 55) (Approx. 683) (Approx. 765) (Approx. 812) (Approx. 845) (Approx. 885) (Approx. 921) (Approx. 949) (Approx. 98) (Approx. 1,3) 18% 138% 157% 173% 179% 189% 196% 21% 25% 25% (18%) (136%) (156%) (171%) (176%) (187%) (194%) (196%) (199%) (199%) (Note 1) GDP for FY1989-FY213: Actual, FY214: Estimate, FY215: Outlook. (Note 2) Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds issued (FY211: in General Account, after FY212: in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake) as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 9.4 trillion yen and FY215: 1.3 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half of basic pension (FY212: 2.6 trillion yen, FY213: 5.2 trillion yen, FY214: 4.9 trillion yen and FY215: 4.6 trillion yen). (Note 3) Figures in parentheses do not include front-loading issuance of refunding bonds. (Note 4) The borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation and Local Transfer Tax are shared by the central and local governments in accordance with their shares of redemption. The amount of the borrowings outstanding incurred by the central government was transferred to the general account at the beginning of FY27, so that the borrowings outstanding in the Special Account since the end of FY27 is the debt of the local governments (FY215: approx. 33 trillion). (Note 5) For the end of FY 214, local regions are expected to be based on the local government bonds plan, etc.. (Note 6) Further, government debts are approx. 99 trillion yen according to the Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program as of the end of FY215. 5

8 (6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate (trillion yen) 1% 25 Interest rate (left scale) (trillion yen) 9 8% 2 6% 15 4% 1 2% 5 % Government bonds outstanding (right scale) Interest payments (left scale) (FY) (Note1) Interest Payments for FY : Settlement, FY214: Including draft supplementary budget, FY215: Draft budget (Note2) Government bonds outstanding for FY : Actual, FY214: Estimate, FY215:Outlook (Note3) Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds as a source of funds for measures and projects for reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 9.4 trillion yen, FY215: 1.3 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half of basic pension (FY212: 2.6 trillion yen, FY213: 5.2 trillion yen, FY214: 4.9 trillion yen, FY215: 4.6 trillion yen)

9 (7) Transition of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account (trillion yen) (FY196) 1.7 trillion yen (breakdown) Social Security related Expenditures.2 Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc..3 Public Works related Expenditures.3 Others.9 National Debt Service.3 (FY197) 8.2 trillion yen (breakdown) Social Security related Expenditures 1.2 Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 1.8 Public Works related Expenditures 1.4 Others 3.5 National Debt Service National Debt Service Others Education & Science National Defense, etc Public Works related Expenditures Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc FY196 FY197 FY198 FY199 FY2 FY215 Social Security related Expenditures (Note) FY196-FY2: Settlement, FY215: Draft budget 7

10 (8) General Account Revenues FY General Account Revenues Tax Revenues Other Revenues Government Bond Issues Construction Bonds Special Deficit-Financing Bond Dependency Tax revenues/gdp Tax revenues + Other revenues/ GDP Government Bonds Outstanding Government Bonds Outstanding / GDP (unit: billion yen, %) Long-term debt outstanding of central and local government Bonds Ratio , , , , ,95.9 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,95. 1, , , , , ,34. 2, , , , ,762. 1, ,16. 2, , , , ,34. 1, ,. 2, , , , ,519. 1,52. 7,275. 3,525. 3, , , , ,24. 1, ,48. 4,43. 4, , , , ,45. 1,86. 1,985. 6,5. 4, , , ,6.1 21,487. 1, ,27. 7,215. 8, , , , ,411. 1, ,27. 6,785. 7, , , , ,284. 2, ,27. 6,785. 5, , , , ,624. 2, ,44. 6,516. 3, , , , ,315. 4, ,345. 6,365. 6, , , , ,596. 3, ,68. 6,225. 6, , , , ,55. 2, ,68. 5,95. 5, , , ,88.6 4,56. 2, ,946. 5,7. 5, , , ,11. 41,194. 2,46. 1,51. 5,52. 4, , , , ,9. 2, ,841. 5,69. 3, , , , ,1. 2, ,111. 5,78. 1, , , , ,4. 2, , , , , , ,772. 3, ,343. 5, , , , ,54. 2,434. 7,28. 7, , , , ,33. 2, ,13. 8, , , , ,665. 5, ,59.2 1, , , , ,731. 4, , , , , , ,345. 2, , ,31. 1, , , ,39. 57,82. 2, ,77. 9,237. 7, , , , ,522. 3, ,557. 8,427. 7, , , , ,119. 3, ,5. 9,34. 21, , , , ,659. 3, ,61. 9,15. 23, , , , ,727. 3, ,318. 8,76. 19, , , ,23. 46,816. 4,414. 3,. 6,79. 23, , , , ,786. 3, ,445. 6,42. 3, , , , ,747. 3, ,59. 6,5. 3, , , , ,7. 3, ,39. 6,18. 28, , , , ,878. 3, ,973. 5, , , , , ,467. 4,9.8 25,432. 5,231. 2, , , , ,554. 4, ,348. 5,212. 2, , , , ,13. 9, ,294. 7, , , , , ,396. 1,6.2 44,33. 6, , , , , ,927. 7, ,298. 6,9. 38, , , , ,346. 3, ,244. 5,99. 38, , , , ,96. 4, ,851. 5, , , , , ,1. 4, ,25. 6,2. 35, , ,9, , ,525. 4, ,863. 6,3. 3, , ,35,277.7 (Note1) The figures are based on each initial budget. Other revenues include surplus carried-over from the previous fiscal year. (Note2) GDP for FY : Actual, FY214: Estimate, FY215: Outlook (Note3) In addition to revenues above mentioned, General Account Revenues include the "Temporary Bond" issued with securing future redemption sources such as creation of special tax, etc. Specifically, Tax Reduction-related Special Deficit-financing (Note4) In calculation of the Bond Dependency Ratio in FY212, the amounts required to achieve national contribution to one-half of basic pension are considered. (Note5) In calculation of Bond Dependency Ratio, "Temporary Bond", issued with securing future redemption sources such as creation of special tax, etc are excluded. (Note6) Government Bonds Outstanding for FY : Actual, FY214: Estimate, FY215: Outlook (Note7) Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211, FY212 and FY213 (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY214: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 9.4 trillion yen, FY215: 1.3 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half basic pension (FY212: 2.6 trillion yen, FY213: 5.2 trillion yen, FY214: 4.9 trillion yen, FY215: 4.6 trillion yen). 8

11 (9) General Account Expenditures FY General Account Expenditure National Debt Service Primary Expenditures Social Security change % change change change % change change change (unit: billion yen, %) increase and decrease , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,95. 1, , , , , ,12.3 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,99.4 2, , , , , , , , , , , , ,36.1 4,48.6 1, ,296. 3, , , , , , ,61.3-4, , , , , , , , , ,295. 5, , ,72.3 4, , ,89.2 5, , , ,6.1 4, , , , , , , , , , ,31.4 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,83.5 1, , , ,68.8 2, , , ,85.9 1, , ,23.9 1, ,61.1 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,88.6 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,671. 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,36. 1, , , , , ,693. 1, ,218. 1, , ,77.7 1, , , , , , , ,5. 56, , , , , , , ,36.2-1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,14.9 4, , , , , , , , ,39. 2, , , , , ,481. 1, , , , , , , ,75.8 1, ,86.1 4, , , , ,95. 1, , , ,6.7-11, , , , , ,21.7 2, , ,93.4 1, , , , , ,17.5-4, , , , ,823. 1, , ,23. -1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,98.8 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,548. 5, , ,34.3 5, , ,52. 16, ,5.3-7, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,77.9 1, , , , , , , , ,39.1-2, , , , , , , ,37. 1, , , , ,22.6 1, , , ,27.2 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,567.5 (Note1) The figures are based on each initial budget. (Note2) GDP for FY : Actual, FY214: Estimate, FY215: Outlook (Note3) Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. since FY1999 include Special Local Grants. (Note4) FY212: In calculation of General Account Primary Balance, the amounts required to achieve national contribution to one-half of basic pension is considered. Local Allocation Tax, etc. General Account Expenditure /GDP Primary balance expenditure /GDP General Account Primary Balance 9

12 (Reference 1) General Government Financial Balances (International Comparison) CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Germany CY Japan Canada U.S U.K Italy Germany France France Italy Canada (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 96" (November, 214) (Note) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds), except for Japan and the U.S where the figures of the social security funds are excluded. The following figures include social security. -5. U.K. U.S. Japan CY Japan U.S CY Japan U.S (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 96" (November, 214) (Note 1) FY215 draft budget is not reflected in the above data. (Note 2) Figures for Japan exclude one-off factors (CY) 1

13 (Reference 2) General Government Gross Debt (International Comparison) CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Japan CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 96" (November, 214) (Note1) Figures represent the general government-based data. (Note2) FY215 draft budget is not reflected in the above data Italy France U.S. U.K. Canada Germany (CY) 11

14 (Reference 3) General Government Net Debt (International Comparison) CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Japan Italy CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada U.S. France U.K. (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 96" (November, 214) (Note1) Figures represent the general government-based data. (Note2) FY215 draft budget is not reflected in the above data. 5 Germany Canada (CY) 12

15 * In each page, the numerical data are subject to change by examining minutely.