Public Finance Statistics Book

Transcription

1 Public Finance Statistics Book (FY218 Draft Budget) December 217 Ministry of Finance, Japan

2 Table of Contents (1) Fiscal Condition at a Glance (2) Central Government : Tax Revenue, Expenditure and Bond Issues in General Account (3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio (4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding (5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments (6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate (7) Evolution of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account (8) General Account Revenues (9) General Account Expenditures Reference 1: International Comparison of General Government Fiscal Balance Reference 2: International Comparison of General Government Gross Debt 11 Reference 3: International Comparison of General Government Net Debt 12

3 (1) Fiscal Condition at a Glance General Account Budget (Revenue and Expenditure) (Unit: billion yen) FY216 FY217 FY218 Initial budget Initial budget Draft budget Expenditure Revenue Tax Revenue 57,64 57,712 59,79 Other Revenue 4,686 5,373 4,942 Government Bond Issue 34,432 34,37 33,692 Total 96,722 97,455 97,713 National Debt Service 23,612 23,528 23,32 Primary Expenditure 73,11 73,926 74,411 Social Security 31,974 32,473 32,973 Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 15,281 15,567 15,515 Total 96,722 97,455 97,713 Bond Dependency Ratio 35.6% 35.3% 34.5% General Account Primary Balance -1,82-1,841-1,39 (Note1) General Account Primary Balance is calculated by subtracting Primary Expenditure from the sum of Tax Revenue and Other Revenue: It is different from the Central Government Primary Balance on SNA basis. Debt Situation Government Bonds Outstanding (General Bonds Outstanding) Percentage of GDP Long-term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments Percentage of GDP (Unit: trillion yen) FY216 (Actual) FY217(Estimated) FY218 (Draft budget) % 157% 156% 1,56 1,87 1,17 196% 198% 196% (Note2) GDP for FY216: Actual, FY217 and FY218: Outlook 1

4 (2) Central Government : Tax Revenue, Expenditure and Bond Issues in General Account (trillion yen) Flow (Unit: trillion yen) Stock Bond Dependency Ratio General Account Primary Balance Government Bonds Outstanding (General Bonds Outstanding) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments FY % -1.4 As of end-fy218 (Percentage of GDP) 883(156%) 1,17(196%) Total Expenditure Tax revenue Construction Bond Issues Special Deficit-Financing Bond Issues (FY) (Note1) FY FY216: Settled Figures; FY217: Based on Supplementary Budget, FY218: Based on Draft Budget (Note2) Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing Bonds issued in FY199 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds issued in FY FY1996 to make up for decline in tax revenue due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction Bonds issued in FY211 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds issued in FY212 and FY213 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half of basic pension. (Note3) General Account Primary Balance is calculated by subtracting Primary Expenditure from the sum of Tax Revenue and Other Revenue: It is different from the Central Government Primary Balance on SNA basis. 2

5 (3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio 6 (trillion yen) 6 Bond Dependency Ratio (RHS) Government Bond Issues (LHS) Construction Bonds Special Deficit Financing Bonds (FY) (Note1) FY FY216: Settled Figures; FY217: Based on Supplementary Budget, FY218: Based on Draft Budget (Note2) Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing Bonds issued in FY199 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds issued in FY FY1996 to make up for decline in tax revenue due to a sereis of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction Bonds issued in FY211 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds issued in FY212 and FY213 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half of basic pension. 3

6 (4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding (trillion yen) Equivalent to 15 years of General Account Tax Revenue (Tax Revenue in FY218 General Account Budget: 59 trillion) FY218 Government Bonds Outstanding 883 trillion (projected) 7. million per person million per family of 4 cf. Average disposable income of a working family 1/ 5.14 million Reconstruction Bonds Construction Bonds / Disposable income is based on the "FY215 Survey of Household Economy" by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Special Deficit-Financing 11 Bonds (Note1) FY FY216: Settled Figures; FY217: Estimated Figures, FY218: Based on Draft Budget (FY) (Note2) Special Deficit-Financing Bonds Outstanding includes refunding bonds for long-term debts transferred from JNR Settlement Corporation, the National Forest Service, etc., Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing Bonds, Tax reduciton-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds. (Note3) Government Bonds Outstanding includes Reconstruction Bonds issued (FY211: in General Account, after FY212: in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake) as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211- FY216 (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 8.3 trillion yen, FY215: 5.9 trillion yen, FY216: 6.7 trillion yen, FY217: 6.4 trillion yen, FY218: 5.8 trillion yen) (Note4) The estimate of FY218 excluding front-loading issuance of refunding bonds is approximately 828 trillion yen

7 (5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments (Unit: trillion yen) FY1998 FY23 FY29 FY21 FY211 FY212 FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216 FY217 FY218 <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Estimated> <Draft Budget> Central Government General Bonds Percentage of GDP Local Governments ( 387 ) ( 484 ) ( 613 ) ( 645 ) ( 685 ) ( 72 ) ( 747 ) ( 772 ) ( 792 ) ( 815 ) ( 837 ) ( 86 ) ( 293 ) ( 448 ) ( 586 ) ( 619 ) ( 66 ) ( 694 ) ( 721 ) ( 746 ) ( 764 ) ( 786 ) ( 88 ) ( 828 ) 56% 88% 121% 127% 136% 143% 147% 149% 151% 154% 157% 156% ( 56% ) ( 87% ) ( 119% ) ( 124% ) ( 134% ) ( 14% ) ( 142% ) ( 144% ) ( 143% ) ( 146% ) ( 147% ) ( 147% ) Percentage of GDP 31% 38% 4% 4% 41% 41% 4% 39% 37% 37% 35% 34% Total Percentage of GDP ,33 1,56 1,87 1,17 ( 55 ) ( 683 ) ( 812 ) ( 845 ) ( 885 ) ( 921 ) ( 949 ) ( 972 ) ( 991 ) ( 112 ) ( 131 ) ( 152 ) 15% 134% 167% 173% 181% 188% 192% 193% 193% 196% 198% 196% ( 15% ) ( 132% ) ( 165% ) ( 169% ) ( 179% ) ( 186% ) ( 187% ) ( 188% ) ( 186% ) ( 188% ) ( 187% ) ( 187% ) (Note1) GDP for FY FY216: Actual, FY217 and FY218: Outlook (Note2) Government Bonds Outstanding includes Reconstruction Bonds as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in Government Bonds Outstanding includes Reconstruction Bonds as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211- FY2178(FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 8.3 trillion yen, FY215: 5.9 trillion yen, FY216: 6.7 trillion yen, FY217: 6.4 trillion yen, FY218: 5.8 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half basic pension (FY212: 2.6 trillion yen, FY213: 5.2 trillion yen, FY214: 4.9 trillion yen, FY215: 4.6 trillion yen, FY216: 4.4 trillion yen, FY217: 4.1 trillion yen, FY218: 3.9 trillion yen). (Note3) Figures in parentheses (to FY216) do not include front-loading issuance for refunding. Figures in parentheses (from FY217) do not include front-loading limit of issuance for refunding. (Note4) The borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation and Local Transfer Tax are shared by the central government and local governments in accordance with their shares of redemption. The amount of the borrowings outstanding incurred by the central government was transferred to the General Account at the beginning of FY27, so that the borrowings outstanding in the Special Account since the end of FY27 are the debt of the local governments (approx. 32 trillion yen in FY218). (Note5) From FY217: The numbers for local governments are estimated in Local Government Debt Plan, etc. (Note6) Government Bonds Outstanding in the Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program are at approximately 94 trillion yen as of end-fy218. 5

8 (6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate (trillion yen) 1% 25 8% 2 6% 15 4% 1 2% 5 Interest Rate (LHS, %) Interest Payments (LHS, trillion yen) Government Bonds Outstanding (RHS) % (Note1) Interest Payments for FY FY216: Settled Figures; FY217: Based on supplmentary budget; FY218: Based on draft budget (FY) (Note2) Government Bonds Outstanding for FY FY215: Actual, FY216: Estimate, FY217: Initial budget Government Bonds Outstanding includes Reconstruction Bonds as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211 - FY217 (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 8.3 trillion yen, FY215: 5.9 trillion yen, FY216: 6.7 trillion yen, FY217: 6.4 trillion yen, FY218: 5.8 trillion yen), and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half basic pension (FY212: 2.6 trillion yen, FY213: 5.2 trillion yen, FY214: 4.9 trillion yen, FY215: 4.6 trillion yen, FY216: 4.4 trillion yen, FY217: 4.1 trillion yen,, FY218: 3.9 trillion yen ) (trillion yen)

9 (7) Evolution of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account (FY196) 1.7 trillion yen (breakdown) Social Security related Expenditures.2 Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc..3 Public Works related Expenditures.3 Others.9 National Debt Service.3 (FY197) 8.2 trillion yen (breakdown) Social Security related Expenditures 1.2 Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 1.8 Public Works related Expenditures 1.4 Others 3.5 National Debt Service FY196 FY197 FY198 FY199 FY2 FY (trillion yen) Natinal Debt Service Others Education & Science National Defense, etc. Public Works related Expenditures Local Allocation Tax Grants,etc. Social Security related Expenditures (note) FY196-FY2: Settlement, FY218: Draft budget 7

10 (8) General Account Revenues FY General Account Revenue Tax Revenue Other Revenue Government Bond Issues Construction Bonds Special Deficit-Financing Bonds Bond Dependency Ratio Tax Revenue /GDP Tax Revenue + Other Revenue / GDP Government Bonds Outstanding Government Bonds Outstanding / (Unit: billion yen, %) Long-term debt outstanding of central and local government GDP ,289 17,34 1,949 2, 2, , , ,296 15,519 1,52 7,275 3,525 3, , , ,514 18,24 1,794 8,48 4,43 4, , , ,295 21,45 1,86 1,985 6,5 4, , , ,6 21,487 1,843 15,27 7,215 8, , , ,589 26,411 1,98 14,27 6,785 7, , , ,788 32,284 2,234 12,27 6,785 5, , , ,681 36,624 2,617 1,44 6,516 3, , , ,38 32,315 4,72 13,345 6,365 6, , , ,627 34,596 3,351 12,68 6,225 6, , , ,5 38,55 2,27 11,68 5,95 5, , , ,89 4,56 2,583 1,946 5,7 5, , , ,11 41,194 2,46 1,51 5,52 4, , , ,7 45,9 2,769 8,841 5,69 3, , , ,414 51,1 2,293 7,111 5,78 1, , , ,237 58,4 2,64 5,593 5, , , ,347 61,772 3,232 5,343 5, , , ,218 62,54 2,434 7,28 7, , , ,355 61,33 2,922 8,13 8, , , ,82 53,665 5,774 1,59 1, , , ,987 53,731 4,658 9,747 9, , , ,15 51,345 2,731 19,149 9,31 1, , , ,39 57,82 2,881 16,77 9,237 7, , , ,669 58,522 3,59 15,557 8,427 7, , , ,86 47,119 3,691 31,5 9,34 21, , , ,987 48,659 3,718 32,61 9,15 23, , , ,652 5,727 3,67 28,318 8,76 19, , , ,23 46,816 4,414 3, 6,79 23, , , ,789 41,786 3,558 36,445 6,42 3, , , ,111 41,747 3,774 36,59 6,5 3, , , ,183 44,7 3,786 34,39 6,18 28, , , ,686 45,878 3,835 29,973 5,484 24, , , ,99 53,467 4,1 25,432 5,231 2, , , ,61 53,554 4,159 25,348 5,212 2, , , ,548 46,13 9,151 33,294 7,579 25, , , ,299 37,396 1,6 44,33 6,353 37, , , ,412 4,927 7,187 44,298 6,9 38, , , ,334 42,346 3,744 44,244 5,99 38, , , ,612 43,96 4,53 42,851 5,775 37, , , ,882 5,1 4,631 41,25 6,2 35, , ,, ,342 54,525 4,954 36,863 6,3 3, , ,32, ,722 57,64 4,686 34,432 6,5 28, , ,56, ,455 57,712 5,373 34,37 6,97 28, , ,87, ,713 59,79 4,942 33,692 6,94 27, , ,17,425 (Note1) The figures are based on each initial budget. Other Revenue includes surplus carried-over from the previous fiscal year. (Note2) GDP for FY : Actual, FY217 and FY218: Outlook (Note3) In addition to revenues above mentioned, General Account Revenue include the "Temporary Bond" issued with securing future redemption sources such as creation of special tax, etc. Specifically, Tax Reduction-related Special Deficitfinancing Bonds (FY1994: 3.1trillion yen, FY1995: 2.9 trillion yen, FY1996: 1.9 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-financing Bonds (FY213: 2.6 trillion yen). (Note4) In calculation of the Bond Dependency Ratio in FY212, the amounts required to achieve national contribution to one-half of basic pension are considered. (Note5) Government Bonds Outstanding for FY : Actual, FY217: Estimate, FY218: Draft budget Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211- FY217 (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 1.3 trillion yen, FY213: 9. trillion yen, FY214: 8.3 trillion yen, FY215: 5.9 trillion yen, FY216: 6.7 trillion yen, FY217: 6.4 trillion yen, FY218: 5.8 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half basic pension (FY212: 2.6 trillion yen, FY213: 5.2 trillion yen, FY214: 4.9 trillion yen, FY215: 4.6 trillion yen, FY216: 4.4 trillion yen, FY217: 4.1 trillion yen, FY218: 3.9 trillion yen). 8

11 (9) General Account Expenditures FY General Account Expenditure National Debt Service Primary Expenditure Social Security Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. change % change change change % change change change General Account Expenditure / GDP Primary Expenditure / GDP (Unit: billion yen, %) General Account Primary Balance increase and decrease ,289 4, , ,249 4, ,927 1,36 4,49 1, ,296 3, , ,631 2, , , ,61-4, ,514 4, , ,166 3, , , , ,295 5, , ,72 4, ,781 1,89 5, ,762-1, ,6 4, , ,522 3, , , ,192-3, ,589 3, ,31 1,232 37,278 2, , ,545 1, ,96 2, ,788 4, ,654 1,344 4,134 2, , ,84 1, ,616 3, ,681 2, ,83 1,176 41,851 1, , ,231 1, ,61 3, , , ,935-1, , ,315-1, , , , ,472 1, , ,886 1, , ,5 1, ,224 1,69 42, , , ,456 2, ,89 1, ,32 1,95 42, , , , , , , , , ,7 2, , ,188 2, , , ,671 1, ,414 3, , ,749 3, , ,369 2, ,554 1, ,237 5, ,289 2,624 51,948 3, , ,275 1, ,695 4, ,347 4, ,36 1,747 54,311 2, , , ,693 1, ,218 1, , ,771 1, , , ,167-1, , ,442-1,5 56,912 1, , , ,312-1, , ,36-1,82 57, , ,758-2, ,262-5, ,987-2, ,221-1,139 57, , , , ,15 4, ,375 3,154 58, , , ,654-5, ,39 2, , ,588 1, , ,481 1, , , , , , , ,76 1, ,86 4, ,832 2,569 6, ,95 1,252 13,523-2, ,61-11, ,987 3, ,965 2,133 63,22 2, , ,93 1, ,645-1, ,652-2, ,171-4,795 65,482 2, , ,823 1, , ,23-1, , , , , ,329-2, , , , , , ,647-6, , , , , , , , , , , , ,948 3, ,686-2, , ,924-2, , ,558-1, ,211 4, ,99 3, ,999 2,237 61, , , ,433 6, , , , , , , ,548 5, , ,34 5, ,834 3,52 16, ,5-7, ,299 3, , ,932 2, ,269 2,434 17, ,936-9, , , , ,78 1,439 16, , ,334-2, , ,39-2, ,39-2,318 16, ,884-2, ,612 2, , ,37 1, ,122 2,732 16, ,221 1, ,882 3, ,27 1,29 72,612 2, ,518 1,395 16, ,98 5, , , , ,53 1,12 15, ,412 4, , , , , , ,82 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , (Note1) The figures are based on each initial budget. (Note2) GDP for FY : Actual, FY217 and FY218: Outlook (Note3) Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. since FY1999 include Special Local Grants. (Note4) FY212: In calculation of General Account Primary Balance, national contribution to one-half of basic pension is considered. 9

12 Reference 1: International Comparison of General Government Fiscal Balance CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Canada German y Italy France Japan (Note) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and social security funds), except for Japan and the U.S. where the figures of the social security funds are excluded. The following figures include social security funds. -8. CY Japan U.S U.K. U.S. CY Japan U.S (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 12" (November 217). (Note1) FY218 draft budget data is not reflected. (Note2) Figures for Japan are adjusted to exclude special factors. (CY)

13 Reference 2: International Comparison of General Government Gross Debt CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Japan CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada (Source) IMF "World Economic Outlook Database" (October 217). (Note) FY218 draft budget data is not reflected Italy U.S. France Canada U.K. 6 Germany (CY) 11

14 Reference 3: International Comparison of General Government Net Debt CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada (Source) IMF "World Economic Outlook Database" (October 217). (Note) FY218 draft budget data is not reflected Italy Japan France U.S. U.K. Germany 2 Canada (CY) 12

15 * Figures are subject to changes due to further examinations.