Working Group on Population Statistics

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROSTAT Directorate F: Social statistics Unit F-2: Population and Migration Luxembourg, 29 June 2016 ESTAT/F2/POP(2016)09 Working Group on Population Statistics Luxembourg, 2-3 June 2016 Bech Building, room Ampere Starting on 2 June at and finishing on 3 June at MAIN CONCLUSIONS OF THE MEETING

2 The meeting was chaired by the Head of Eurostat Unit F2 Population. 1. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA The agenda was adopted without any changes. 2. UNIDEMO DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTION REFERENCE YEAR 2014 Eurostat presented an overview of the first round of the collection of data UNIfied DEMOgraphic data collection Reference Year 2014 (UNIDEMO RY2014) for the statistics on vital events, migration flows and acquisitions/loss of citizenship data for 2014 and population stocks data at the end of the same year, as covered by the Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 and by the Article 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 862/2007, as well as by their corresponding implementing measures. Some general aspects related to the data quality were reviewed, in particular referring to punctuality, completeness, comparability and accuracy. It was reminded that Eurostat is obliged to follow appropriate Eurostat and European Statistics System procedures linked to compliance monitoring taking stock of all important quality issues in line with the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice and the provisions of Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics and Amending Regulation (EU) No 2015/759 for EU Member States and EFTA countries bound by Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 and Regulation (EC) No 862/2007. Eurostat highlighted the most important identified data gaps addressed under the framework of voluntary agreement: population by individual country of citizenship, as well as migration flows by individual country of previous/next residence in a context where population and migration has become a high priority in the European Statistical System. It was stated that in the scope of the project ESS.VIP. ADMIN ( ) aiming to facilitate the use of administrative sources without compromising data quality, Eurostat launches a call for grants by March- April with April-May as deadline supporting 95% with the introduction of new administrative data sources for use in official statistics. Eurostat reminded participants of the existence of the dedicated restricted access interest group Exchange of data and best practices for international migration statistics. This was set up on the European Commission s CIRCABC platform for the online exchange of information on 24 October This interest group is an opportunity to learn from other NSIs best practices as well as to reflect on what mirror statistics can do for migration statistics. The WG was informed that Eurostat has disseminated historical time series of migration and acquisitions of citizenship flows by age definition; either age reached or age completed or both age definitions depending on data availability, on the Eurostat website. Data providers willing to supplement data with the other age definition were invited to do so. Information was provided on updates and timetable for the third round of UNIDEMO: UNIDEMO RY2015 will be launched in September 2016 with 31 December as deadline for countries to transmit the data to Eurostat and the following updates in comparison with UNIDEMO RY2014. No changes of content are expected with the exception of the dataset demo_r_d3area (size of NUTS areas in km²) that will no longer be collected. This is because the working group on the integration of geospatial and statistical information (GISCO working group) in its meeting on 10 March 2016 endorsed the following 2

3 proposal for a harmonised Total Surface Area (TSA) and Land Surface Area (LSA) reporting within the European Statistical System: Eurostat will calculate TSA and at a later stage LSA at country level and for all NUTS levels, applying a harmonised method for all countries using GISCO 1 NUTS/COUNTRY boundaries and high resolution water masks from CORINE 2. Member States will provide feedback and correct the GISCO data provided they sufficiently document their methodology. Eurostat will publish the updated/ approved datasets with detailed methodological notes. A formal update procedure should be established, tied in with the revision of the NUTS. The members of the respective responsible WG supported that Eurostat unit E4 will start implementing this option and will report back on the results. Eurostat presented an overview of the NUTS-2013 and NUTS-2016 classifications. It was summarised the status of the ongoing data transmission of the historical time series (HTS) corresponding to the NUTS-2013 classification, the expected datasets to be received by Eurostat and the dissemination of a new demographic indicator at NUTS level 3 regions. For one country no HTS data will be transmitted and use of past data will be done by Eurostat based on the agreement reached following bilateral correspondence. The upcoming NUTS-2016 classification was described and the changes at all NUTS levels for all nine affected Member States were presented. In the view of the related HTS NUTS-2016 data transmission a summary table with the various starting years of the demographic data at regional level available on Eurostat website was presented. In the discussions that followed one country informed that HTS data on area will have 2004 as starting year, proposal accepted by Eurostat; Countries asked about the data breakdown for the HTS for NUTS-2016 and the length of the HTS to be transmitted to Eurostat. Eurostat answered that the approach will be similar to the one applied for HTS NUTS-2013, and the length of the time series ideally should go back to 1990, or the time series to be as long as possible the country can provide data for. Eurostat thanked MSs for effort done to provide demographic and migration data to Eurostat. The WG took note of the results of the data collection carried out under Regulations 862/2007 and 1260/2013 for 2014 reference year and requirements for reference year The priority for as detailed as possible voluntary data on migrants (single citizenship, age, etc.) for policy purposes was reiterated. The past and future efforts of countries were and will be appreciated. Eurostat thanked some countries for their cooperation in transmitting in advance and upon request the population data at regional level for the reference year 2013 aiming to present in the Eurostat Regional Year Book, 2016 edition, a new demographic indicator at NUTS level 3 regions (Total Fertility Rate). 1 GISCO dataset (Member states submitted vector dataset via Eurogeographics/National mapping agencies) 2 CORINE dataset ( Member states submitted vector dataset via European Environment Agency) 3

4 The concerned Member States were invited to take note that the complete dataset for the reference year 2013, including any possible revisions, should be sent no later than 31 December 2016, as the deadline for the complete HTS NUTS-2013 data transmission. Eurostat acknowledged that one country sent complete HTS NUTS-2013 datasets at NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 levels. One country will send HTS data on area staring with the year The WG was informed that the data breakdown for the HTS of NUTS-2016 will have the same degree as the one used in HTS NUTS-2013 and the length of the time series ideally would have 1990 as starting year. It was clarified that all datasets starting with 2013 included and forward will be mandatory for sending and shall be compliant with the legislative acts specific to demography domain. For the years 2012 included and backward data will have lower breakdown, in particular at NUTS level DISSEMINATION AND USER INTERESTS Eurostat presented an overview of the tables, datasets, Statistics Explained articles and press releases of Eurostat, focusing on which topics were of most interest to users, as reflected by the download statistics of the Eurostat website. The date and place of the international conference "Towards more agile social statistics" is November 2016, Luxembourg. The WG took note of the presentation. 4. FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTIONS Eurostat presented recent developments of the data collections under Regulations 862/2007 and 1260/2013, including information on the Joint Eurostat-UNSD questionnaire and the draft Dataset Definition document. The WG supported in general Eurostat work towards the new way of data provision based on SDMX data model and CSV files. Some countries volunteered to test the new provision mechanism early in By 30 June 2016 countries shall provide answers by (to ESTAT SECRETARIAT DEMOGRAPHIE mailbox) to the questionnaire in Annex I to the WG document. In the discussion that followed, Eurostat assured the MSs that the automatic data validation in the new process would not physically block transmitting to Eurostat of any data file except when one or more blocking editing rules agreed beforehand by Working Group on population Statistics fail the data will not be considered delivered. Eurostat presented a proposal for changes to the Metadata template for the URESPOP data collection, which concerns only Member States as it reports on the total usually resident population for specific Union purposes. The proposal comes from a need to increase the efficacy of the template to describe the methodology used in the MSs to 4

5 estimate the population figure, in view of the report to the European Parliament and to the Council on the URESPOP estimation methods by end of To this aim, Eurostat proposed three tables to assess the inclusion and exclusion of selected population groups and on ad-hoc adjustments to correct for other issues. The updated Eurostat Metadata standard V2.0 which is planned to be implemented in August was presented. This will not request action from the countries as the changes will be centrally done by Eurostat. In the discussion that followed, some MSs expressed their difficulties to report on the size of certain groups, in particular when the population is estimated starting from the Census where the groups are not identified separately. Besides options "yes" and "no" on inclusion/exclusion of the groups, a third option "partially included" should be added. Eurostat clarified that the list of included and excluded groups was based on the current Census recommendations The WG supported in general Eurostat proposals for the new content of metadata for URESPOP data collection. The aim is to clarify as much as possible the implementation of the usual residence definition. To that end Eurostat may issue a technical note presenting for discussion (see also item 7) ambiguous cases (groups) being dealt with. Providing counts of certain groups would not be possible and option "partially" should be added to options "yes" and "no". Proposed tables will be adjusted for that. By 10 June 2016 Member States can provide further comments by (to ESTAT SECRETARIAT DEMOGRAPHIE mailbox). 5. METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES / NEW GUIDELINES Eurostat presented a summary of the survey on asylum seekers/refugees and proposed guidelines. The discussion has polarized on the first two of the three options proposed by Eurostat. Eurostat explained that the difference between option 1 and option 2 is basically in the inclusion in the former of the asylum seekers whose application is pending from a year or more, and in the exclusion of those refugees who have actually left the country after having been granted international protection. For most countries, these two sub-groups are likely to be of non-significant size, which would take to a de facto equality between option 1 and option 2. Option 1 is to be considered as methodologically correct for usually resident population and fully compliant with the governing EC regulations, therefore recommended. It is acknowledged that for some countries, the national statistical systems currently in place make it feasible to approximate option 1 with option 2. By 10 June 2016 MSs can still provide comments by (to ESTAT SECRETARIAT DEMOGRAPHIE) so definition can be finalised for the new round of annual data collections. Eurostat will reflect further after receiving written comments. 5

6 6. METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AT NATIONAL LEVEL Measuring migration in Romania: strengths and weaknesses in the context of European requirements Romania presented the main problems and difficulties to measure migration in the context of the EU Regulations. The solutions proposed refer to estimation based on a combination of methods and data sources: a very good source is given by the exchange of mirror flows with other countries, in particular in the case of Romania with Italy and Spain. The WG welcomed the presentation of Romania. The paper presents an example of exchange of data among countries leading to improvement of statistics. Such exchanges are encouraged by Eurostat. Current recording of demographic events in Belarus Belarus presented the way population figures are estimated and events (births, deaths and migration) are recorded. Data sources and information available from them were described, including an overview of the process flow to produce the data series. The WG welcomed the presentation "Current recording of demographic events in Belarus". 7. FEASIBILITY STUDIES ON "USUAL RESIDENCE" Eurostat presented and overview of the intermediate reports of the studies on the feasibility of using the usual residence concept with 12 months time criteria for all the breakdowns of population, births and deaths requested in the Regulation 1260/2013. These reports were sent by all 15 countries benefitting of a Eurostat grant to carry out the action; one country sent on voluntary basis the report. Some common issues on meeting the usual resident definition emerge from the analyses, for instance the application of a different concept of duration of stay than 12 months; the fact that registration and deregistration are often compulsory but not fulfilled or delayed; the migration component is very difficult to measure and therefore it is often underestimated. After a request for clarification on the future steps in view of the preparation of the report for the European Parliament and Council, Eurostat clarified that the report will contain the results of the feasibility studies and that countries are very welcomed to present their national results in the next working groups meetings. In the future there will be a regulation covering demography, migration and possibly also census, in view of the work done so far on the post-2021 censuses. The WG took note of an overview of the intermediate reports of the studies carried out under Regulation 1260/2013. The WG was informed that as a next step Eurostat will prepare a report to European parliament and the Council by the end of Next WG meeting will set up the way forward based on the results of the feasibility studies. 6

7 8. CENSUS 2021 AND POST-2021 INFORMATION ON THE WORK DONE SO FAR AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES Eurostat presented the work in progress to develop the 2021 EU census data collection, and to prepare a strategy for the collection of census-type data after Eurostat is assisted in this work by the Task Force on future EU censuses comprising census experts from 19 NSIs. This Task Force reports to the Directors of Social Statistics (DSS). As agreed with the DSS in 2013, the 2021 census data collection will be based on the existing Regulation (EC) 763/2008, which was the legal base for the 2011 data collection. New implementing regulations being prepared for 2021 were presented: Implementing regulation on technical specifications of the topics and breakdowns for the 2021 data collection The draft regulation was presented Implementing regulation on the reference year and programme of statistical data and metadata for the 2021 data collection Draft regulation on metadata and quality information for the 2021 census data collection A further part of the work of the Task Force on future EU censuses has been the development of the collection of a limited selection of data geo-referenced to a 1km² grid. This would be a new development for the 2021 census and would be separate from the main EU census data collection programme. This was discussed by the DSS at its February 2016 meeting and subsequently by the Census Working Group in April The DSS supported the continued development of grid data from the 2021 census, although further work is needed on disclosure control issues. The 1km² grid data collection would not be covered by the existing EU statistical legislation on the census (Regulation (EC) 763/2008), and the DSS preferred that Eurostat should try to develop this action under separate legislation as a Temporary Statistical Action. The Task Force on future EU censuses is preparing a report to be submitted to the DSS in October 2016, outlining a series of options for the types of census-type data to be collected after The advice and guidance of the DSS will be requested on how to proceed with this work and which options should be selected for further research and development. The changes being considered for the post-2021 vision are far-reaching and imply a complete re-thinking of the census and its relationship to other types of social and population statistics that are collected. It is likely that the census will cease to be a separate decennial data collection, and will instead be more fully integrated within the wider systems for population and social statistics. Consequently, if the DSS approves the vision Eurostat emphasised the need of very close cooperation and work together with the WG on population The WG took note of the activities of the Task force on future population and housing censuses and the status of the draft Census Regulations and a proposal for 1km2 referenced data. WG confirmed that the exchange of the information and work hand in hand between the census and demography teams at EU and national level is essential. Additionally, to that end the Task Force CIRCABC group is open to those members of the Population WG who would like to follow the work of the Task Force more closely. 7

8 9. CIRCULAR MIGRATION Eurostat presented the state of play on the activities related to the UNECE task force on circular migration. The report has received a broad support at the latest CES meeting and the comments expressed by the countries during the electronic consultation will be analysed. The revised version of the report on "Defining and Measuring Circular Migration" will be presented at one of the next meeting of the CES Bureau for final adoption. 10. A.O.B. The WG took note of the report by Eurostat on the state of play of definition and measurement of circular migration. Next WG meeting is tentatively scheduled for fall Due to space restriction and the closing of JMO building, Eurostat will need to check the availability of the meeting rooms. In case it is a one day meeting, the WG expressed a preference for having it over two half days (i.e. starting at 14 on the first day and finishing at lunch on the second day). The WG reviewed the main conclusions of the meeting and Eurostat thanked all participants and especially speakers for their active contribution. 8