Banning Lewis Ranch: Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis

Transcription

1 Banning Lewis Ranch: Ecnmic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Briefing t: Clrad Springs City Cuncil Nvember 27, 2017 Bethesda, MD Bradentn, FL TischlerBise.cm

2 Presentatin Outline Overview and Definitins Methdlgy Key Assumptins Fiscal Impact Results Ecnmic Impact Results Lk Back Ecnmic and Revenue Impacts Summary

3 Firm Backgrund Natinal Leader n Cst f Grwth Issues Fiscal/ecnmic impact analysis Impact fees Infrastructure financing strategies Market analysis Utility rates TischlerBise Clrad Clients Arapahe Cunty Aurra Bulder Castle Rck Centennial Eatn Erie Evans Grand junctin Greeley Jhnstwn Mesa Cunty Lne Tree Lngmnt Luisville Pitkin Cunty Puebl Steambat Springs Thrntn Westminster

4 Prject Persnnel Carsn Bise, AICP, President Cnducted analyses in 37 states Authr f Fiscal Impact Analysis: Methdlgies fr Planners and Fiscal Impact Analysis: Hw Tday s Decisins Affect Tmrrw s Budgets Chaired American Planning Assciatin s Paying fr Grwth Task Frce Julie Herlands, AICP, Vice President Cnducted fiscal/ecnmic evaluatins in ver 20 states Past Chair f the Ecnmic Develpment Divisin f the APA Chaired the American Planning Assciatin Task Frce n Planning and Ecnmic Develpment.

5 Fiscal Impact Analysis Fiscal impacts reflect cash flw t the public sectr Are the revenues generated by develpment enugh t cver csts t prvide services and facilities? Reflects perating expenses and capital csts Reflects all revenues affected by develpment Revenues minus Csts = Net Surplus (Cntributrs) r Deficit (Recipients)

6 Ecnmic Impact Analysis Ecnmic impacts reflect verall ecnmy f the cmmunity Residential impacts: Primary factrs are cnstructin and cnsumer spending Nnresidential impacts: Primary factrs are jb creatin and dispsable incme Resident spending fr mrtgages, car payments, and insurance are nt typical surces f sales tax fr lcal gvernments

7 Definitins Direct Impacts Changes in lcal business activity ccurring as a direct cnsequence f public r private business decisins. Indirect Impacts Changes in lcal business activity resulting frm changes in sales fr suppliers t the directly-affected businesses. Induced Impacts Changes in spending n fd, clthing, shelter, and ther cnsumer gds and services as a cnsequence f the change in wrkers and payrll f directly and indirectly affected businesses.

8 Jbs Definitins Lng-Term: Permanent emplyment at new develpment (nnresidential). Temprary: Cnstructin emplyment related t new develpment (residential and nnresidential). Labr Incme Output Wages, benefits, dividends, and prprietr incme. Grss business revenue, which pays fr csts f materials and csts f labr, as well as generating net business incme (als referred t as revenue r sales vlume).

9 Methdlgies and Assumptins Prjected grwth: Clrad Springs Utilities prjectins Cnsistent with Oakwd Hmes PUD Cncept Plan Maintaining current jbs per persn Fiscal Impact Analysis Marginal apprach Revenues and csts prjected: General Fund and select Special Revenue Funds Enterprise funds/self-sufficient funds are excluded N inflatin assumed Current tax rates and levels f service assumed Ecnmic Impact Analysis IMPLAN multipliers augmented by TischlerBise s Clrad experience Fiscal Year 2017 Market and Assessed values prvided by El Pas Cunty Tax Assessr

10 Key Assumptins: Land Uses

11 Key Assumptins: Grwth Summary Prjected land use based upn existing Oakwd develpment and is cnsistent with Banning Lewis Ranch Master Plan. Prjected absrptin is identical t Clrad Springs Utilities analysis. Prjected develpment ver 30 years cnsumes apprximately 6,400 net acres (7,400 grss acres).

12 Fiscal Impact Findings Results

13 Fiscal Impact Results Includes Operating and Capital Revenues and Csts

14 Fiscal Impact Results Includes Operating and Capital Revenues and Csts

15 Fiscal Impact Results Includes Operating and Capital Revenues and Csts

16 Fiscal Impact Findings Revenue and Csts t Serve Prjectins

17 Fiscal Impacts Cumulative Prjected Revenues

18 Fiscal Impacts General Fund Prjected Revenue 30-Year Cumulative GF Ttal $350 millin

19 Special Revenue Fund Revenue Detail Fiscal Impacts

20 Fiscal Impacts Other Ptential Revenues (Excluded frm the Mdel)

21 Fiscal Impacts Other Ptential Revenues (Excluded frm the Mdel)

22 Fiscal Impacts Prjected Csts t Serve

23 Fiscal Impacts Prjected Csts t Serve (cnt d)

24 Fiscal Impacts Prjected Capital Impacts and Csts

25 Ecnmic Impact Findings

26 Prjected Ecnmic Impacts

27 Prjected Jbs

28 Lk Back : 22-Year Summary

29 Lk Back: Ecnmic Impact

30 Clrad Springs Utilities Prjectins CSU has sund, prudent financial plicies/practices that include the fllwing: Establishing utility rates that generate sufficient revenues t meet perating csts, capital prgram requirements, debt service bligatins, and that maintain adequate reserves; Setting utility rates that are prprtinate t the cst f prviding utility service t each custmer class t prmte fairness and equity; and Fllwing a financial plan that minimizes future rate impacts n custmers due t rate structures that build up sufficient reserves.

31 Clrad Springs Utilities Prjectins Tw scenaris Base Case Base Case, plus Banning Lewis Ranch Sund methdlgy utilized Cumulative net fiscal impact prjected at apprximately: $40 millin ver first 10 years $180 millin ver 20 years $435 millin ver 30 years

32 Summary Fiscal Impacts Include: Cumulative net fiscal benefit ver the 30-year prjectin perid f $49 millin First 10 years prjected t generate a surplus under current levels f service and current rates and fees Csts t serve are cvered by revenues generated in shrt-, medium-, and lng-term. Ecnmic Impacts Include: Prjected 35,000 ttal (direct, indirect, induced) jbs Prjected ttal 30-year ecnmic impact f ver $41 billin

33 Summary All sales tax revenues presented are prjected frm within Banning Lewis Ranch. Additinal sales tax revenues may be generated utside f Banning Lewis Ranch (in Clrad Springs).

34 Clsing Questins and Discussin Thank yu