Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 6

Transcription

1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 6 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Adam G. Walke University of Texas at El Paso, agwalke@utep.edu Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo University of Texas at El Paso, eduarteronquillo@miners.utep.edu Omar Solís University of Texas at El Paso, osolis3@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Walke, Adam G.; Ronquillo, Ernesto Duarte; and Solís, Omar, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 6" (217). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.

2 June 217 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Adam G. Walke Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo Omar Solís Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 5 West University Avenue El Paso, TX Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso tomf@utep.edu agwalke@utep.edu Telephone Fax Website Border Commerce & Economics Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 6 Border Economic Expansion Continues El Paso economic activity continues to follow an upward trajectory as measured by the Metropolitan Business Cycle Index. The El Paso Household Economic Stress Index also declined in both March and April, indicating lower economic stress. The El Paso unemployment rate in April was 4.8 percent, which is slightly higher than last year, but still very low by local historical standards. The number of El Paso County residents enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) was lower in the first five months of 217 than in the same period of 216, which is consistent with a general improvement in local economic conditions. Housing demand remains fairly strong in El Paso. On average, median housing prices were about 6 percent higher in the first four months of 217 than in the same period of 216. Months of housing inventory have also decreased since last year. Average local gasoline prices decreased to $2.22 per gallon in May compared to $2.26 in April. Gasoline prices usually tend to increase in the late spring and early summer months as travel demand increases. However, fuel prices throughout the United States have remained relatively flat so far in 217. The Las Cruces economy continues to lag other metropolitan economies in the Borderplex region. The Doña Ana County unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in April, the same as one year earlier. The Las Cruces area unemployment rate oscillated between 6.5 and 8.5 percent from 29 forward. Area SNAP enrollments sharply decreased in March and April. Unfortunately, at least part of that caseload decline is due to state budget cuts rather than improvements in local economic conditions. The Mexican peso has appreciated since January. The recent appreciation is reassuring news for retailers on the north side of the border. However, the peso is still relatively undervalued as illustrated by the real peso-to-dollar exchange rate index. According to a survey of fast food restaurants conducted by the Border Region Modeling Project, a menu item that costs $1. (USD) in El Paso typically costs only 12.7 pesos in Ciudad Juarez, or about $.68 (USD) in exchange-rate-adjusted terms. This means that, even after the recent peso appreciation, border area consumers still have a substantial economic incentive to shop in Ciudad Juárez. Real trade through the El Paso Customs District was slightly lower in the first four months of 217 than in the first four months of 216. Most of this decline was due to lower US exports to Mexico. At the same time, the boom in export-processing activity in Ciudad Juárez appears to be continuing apace, in spite of the uncertainties that have recently clouded the US-Mexico trade relationship. The number of workers in the IMMEX manufacturing sector, which primarily produces for US markets, surpassed 27, in March for the first time ever. The Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index registered higher values in February and March 217 than during the same months last year, though the!pril index value was slightly lower than last year s corresponding figure. The total value of construction in the state of Chihuahua was somewhat lower during the first quarter of 217 than it was during the first quarter of 216. This may be due, in part, to rising interest rates in Mexico. However, retail activity in the state was moderately higher than last year. Retailers in northern Mexico border areas have benefited from the continued strength of the dollar.

3 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso '... I I I I I I I I I Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

4 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso 6' I II O'I... ;..., (1).r:i ,--j "-_./ >< (1) '"d i::: -'"d ,----=-----! ::l <t; >-. i::: 2 +-.: l (1) r/j , ' Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

5 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index >< 5 +-_.,,.---=-.._---::;a i:::... Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

6 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

7 El Paso County Unemployment Rate J b ! <;\ '\<;> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 El Paso County Unemployment Rate,,, "C (l)... rfj = 9 >. i:: rfj ro (l) IZJ... 6 (l) &j... = (l) E (l) = ,----> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment el 185, :::;;m:: , l i:: Cl) u Cl)... i 18, "' ,..._ l r./j. c...,... Cl),. ) z 175, ! Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

10 2, El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment a... <!)... 18, i 16, r.f.j. '-+-< ;..., <!).r:i s z 14, 12, Starting in September, 214, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month. Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

11 El Paso Median Housing Prices Cl) u. ;:::::....5 E z $145, $14, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

12 El Paso Median Housing Prices Cl) u $14, c....s E z $13, $12, $11, ' Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

13 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Vl l Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso ' Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

15 El Paso Gasoline Prices ,.--..., = ;... Cl).. rn a ::::::l '--" Cl) u i:....s $2.5 $2. E $1.5 z Source: GasBuddy.com

16 El Paso Gasoline Prices """"' $ ! ;..., Cl)... $3. -t a----- :::::::1..._,, $. -< Source: GasBuddy.com

17 Dona Ana County Unemployment Rate :rj' (!)... rjl ;:::$ :.a-' <( h rjl (!) r/j... 6 (!) 1:: (!) E > E (!) <;\ i:> \ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Dona Ana County Unemployment Rate, f j "O (1) -+-> r/l ;:::l 7 -t r t f :-9-- _.,.._.._,m-1 i::: r/l < en. -+-> b 5 -ac tlt j :: 1:: (1) E S r----== a 5 i:: < Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases rfl ;..., Cl),. :) 29, k z 26, ,..., Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

20 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases s ;..., Cl),r:J z 2, , ' Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

21 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 216 Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

22 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate - Restaurant Price Ratio - Nominal Exchange ;... Cl) r----1 rn rn Cl)..., Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

23 Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index ,.-,. 14 -t- 8 - II 11 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

24 Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index 6' II {'" , >< $:::: ,----,------, , ,, r-' Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

25 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso ,2, rll <1) -(.) <+.< lo--< <1) s z 1,1, 1,, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

26 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,5, ,4, 1,3, rjl u :.2 1,1, c... ;..., ] 1,, z 8, 6, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

27 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 8, rn $::::.E rn Q) "'O Q) 7, t 6, i... Q).D E z 5, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

28 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 8, l'/:l 7, Q) "O Q) ;... Q) 6, 3 z 5, 4, r ,, , Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

29 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso ell 2 7, <+-< ;... <!).D 6, z 5, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

30 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso ell 7, u 4-- ;..., Q) 5, ,, 3, , r------i Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

31 V'l Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $1, Q + $7, !.. &j '--" l-+ r ] $6, < No "\'b- Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

32 rj:l a :::::::1 Q.s 5 z c... rj:l i::::: a.s,,,...,. rj:l t:: - + rj:l t:: x µ..:i '-" Q) ""d cl:! Crj... $1, $8, $6, $4, Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $2, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

33 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District C/'l :::::::! Q N O'\ -c..-. C/'l i::: ;:.s Cl) '"d Cd... $5, $4,5 $4, $3,5 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

34 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District rjl a :::::::1 N O'I,...; t+-; rjl i::: s.s Q) "d ro ca +-> $5, $4, $3, $1, , , Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez , 27, ti)., ) _, (+..., ;... Cl)., ) z 26, 25, 24, Source: INEGI

36 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez $ 23, < -. c.,..., ;... tl),d E i 2, _j W!' , Source: INEGI

37 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index '... I (!)..._.,, ::: x (!) "'d i::: t-----< 'b- \ Source: Banco de México

38 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 6 I " Source: Banco de México

39 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua , Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI

40 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 6',..., II , a-_._ j N "--' >< i::: Source: INEGI

41 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua ,, rn rn (!)... N,... N (!)..., '-+--< rn "'O g rn ;:::l : 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, Source: INEGI

42 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua rn rn Cl)... N 1,5, N Cl)..., 4-.. rn -g 1,25, rn ;::::i 75, Source: INEGI

43 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua ' ii" 175. N '--" 15. "'d i:: Source: INEGI

44 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 6'... Jb _,, >< Cl) ""d Source: INEGI

45 University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Howard Daudistel, Interim Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice Provost UTEP College of Business Administration Robert Nachtmann, Dean Steve Johnson, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 5 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX , USA, (915)