Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 10

Transcription

1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 1 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Adam G. Walke University of Texas at El Paso, agwalke@utep.edu Omar Solís University of Texas at El Paso, osolis3@miners.utep.edu Patricia Arellano University of Texas at El Paso, parellano3@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Walke, Adam G.; Solís, Omar; and Arellano, Patricia, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 1" (217). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.

2 October 217 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Adam G. Walke Omar Solís Patricia Arellano Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 5 West University Avenue El Paso, TX Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso tomf@utep.edu agwalke@utep.edu Telephone Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 1 Stable Conditions The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Metropolitan Business Cycle Index indicates that the El Paso economy continued to grow in August. The Household Economic Stress Index ticked slightly upward as the result of somewhat higher price inflation, but remains low by recent historical standards. The local unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in August compared to a rate of 5.3 percent recorded during the same month in 216. Enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) increased, though this may be partly due to seasonal oscillations in caseloads. Median local housing prices rose to an all-time high in August, exceeding $153,. The housing data, which have been revised since last month, also indicate that months of housing inventory have fluctuated near 5.5 since May. That is the lowest level recorded for this variable since 26 and indicates robust demand in the local housing market. Gasoline prices rose to $2.5 per gallon on average in September, mainly due to various market disruptions occasioned by Hurricane Harvey. The Doña Ana County unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in August. The average unemployment rate for the first eight months of 217 is 7.3 percent, which is lower than the average for the first eight months of any year since 28. This suggests that, while still relatively lackluster, the Las Cruces economy is gradually improving. Las Cruces area SNAP enrollments increased at a moderate month-over-month rate of.9 percent in August 217, but remain comfortably below year-ago levels. The nominal US-Mexico exchange rate was pesos per dollar in August, which reflects little change relative to July. The cross-border restaurant price ratio also remained flat over the same time span. The price ratio indicates that a menu item that costs one dollar in El Paso costs approximately 72 cents in Ciudad Juárez when prices are converted into dollar terms. The real exchange rate index budged only slightly, moving from in July to in August. Fax Website Border Commerce & Economics Total real trade flows through the El Paso Customs District have been somewhat below 216 levels on average this year. Most of the decline is due to reduced US exports through the customs district, while the volume of imports has remained relatively stable. Jobs in the export-oriented manufacturing sector of Ciudad Juárez increased slightly in July to 275,352. In another sign of stability in the region s industrial sector, the Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index has remained one percentage point above the level observed last year, on average, since January. The total value of construction in the state of Chihuahua dropped to $1.3 billion pesos in July. Construction activity remained below last year s levels throughout the first half of 217. This is due partly to increases in interest rates in Mexico, which are driven in turn by healthy economic conditions, greater price inflation, and the trajectory of interest rates in the United States. Uncertainty over the future of Mexico s trade relations with the United States may also contribute to the decline in construction activity. Although commerce has generally fared well in 217, real retail activity in the state of Chihuahua fell slightly in July, both with respect to June and with respect to July of last year.

3 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso II 235, - T T T T T T T T T T Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

4 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso 6' s 23 -l-,,.--: 1 II O'\... ;..., cu,.d _,, >< cu "'d -"'d 21 --tjl!!!f ::s < > P"- cu r/ " Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

5 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index >< 4 +-_ j i:::... Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

6 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

7 El Paso County Unemployment Rate J b ! <;\ '\<;> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 El Paso County Unemployment Rate,,, "C (l)... rfj = 9 >. i:: rfj ro (l) IZJ... 6 (l)... = (l) E (l) = ' Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment el 185, :::;;m:: , l i:: Cl) u Cl)... i 18, "' ,..._ :::;;iilll..,-:: l r./j. c...,... Cl),. ) z 175, ! Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

10 2, El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment Cl) a 18, -(.) Cl) :::... <r: z 16, r/j. 4-1 ;..., Cl).. z 14, 12, Starting in September, 214, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month. Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

11 El Paso Median Housing Prices <!) u. i::... c;.5 E z $145, $14, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

12 El Paso Median Housing Prices $12, $11, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

13 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Vl 6. -l !' i l rt\ '\lb- Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

15 E1 Paso Gasoline Prices ,,.--..., = l--o <!).. a ::::::l '--' <!) u ;:::;...s $2.5 $2. E $1.5 z Source: GasBuddy.com

16 El Paso Gasoline Prices """"' $ ! ;..., Cl)... $3. -t----.i a w---- :::::::1..._,, $. -< Source: GasBuddy.com

17 Dona Ana County Unemployment Rate (!)... IJl ;:::! < h IJl ro (!) r./'l... 6 (!) ::: 1:: (!) 5 > (!) : lb-<:, \ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Dofta Ana County Unemployment Rate,,.-.,. 8 -t "'d (l) +-> r:n ;:::l , " i::: r:n < 'C/J +-> 6 5.,, ----j ::: 1:: (l) E S4 +--.a--= i:: 3 ; < Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases rfj ;..., <l).. ) 29, -t------t z Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

20 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Q) 3, -t :;;iir l u... <l'.'. z r/j 4-< ;... Q).D z 2, ! 1, Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

21 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 216 Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate :::::::l Q 1s t,...;---l Cl) _,_----< '"1 '\ Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

22 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate - Restaurant Price Ratio - Nominal Exchange Rate 8 ::::::::l Q!-+ Q) ,------j rfj rfj Q) Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

23 Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index ,.-,. 14 -t- 8 - II 11 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

24 Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index 6' II {'" r , >< $:::: , Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

25 Per sonal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,2, cu u 4-< lo-; cu.d z 1,1, 1,, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

26 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,5, ,4, Q)... u 1,1, '" l!--; ] 1,, s z 9, 6, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

27 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso rn - 6, rn cu "'C cu... ;... cu.d 5, z 4, 'b-<;\ \-::> Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

28 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 8, rn.e 7, (1) "O (1).. 4-o 1--o (1) 6, 3 z 5, 4, ' Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

29 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso rn u 2 7, f--< u (+...; ii), :) s 6, z 5, ! :\> '\ Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

30 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso r:fl 7, 4-+ ;... (!) 5, 3, ' Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

31 V'l Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $1, Q + t $7, <.. &j '--" l-+ r ] $6, <.;:,. \'?!- Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

32 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District E $8, !Zl i:: a.s '' $6, t:.. E... +!Zl t:.. e $4,ooo +----r-----a ro ca... $2, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

33 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District C/'l :::::::! Q N O'\ -c..-. C/'l i::: ;:.s Cl) '"d Cd... $5, $4,5 $4, $3,5 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

34 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District ::::::l Cl N O'\ -I..+-; rll i::: s.s Cl) "'d ca... $5, $4, $3, $1, ' Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez 29, , r:/'l.d -, ;..., Q).D E ::S ;z: 27, 26, 25, Source: INEGI

36 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez 14, < Source: INEGI

37 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index ' 6 I cu bj)..., ::: cu >< "'d -i::: ; < 'b-<;\ \'b- Source: Banco de México

38 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 6 I Source: Banco de México

39 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua , Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI

40 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 6' II ,.._ a N '-" >< Source: INEGI

41 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua ,, Cl)... N, N Cl) -. I.._. '"d ;:j... 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, Source: INEGI

42 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua en en <!)... N 8 1,5, N <!)..., '+-< en -g 1,25, ro en ;:j E5 75, Source: INEGI

43 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua ' ii" 175. N '--" 15. "'d i:: Source: INEGI

44 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 6' '-' >< Cl) "O... = Source: INEGI

45 University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Howard Daudistel, Interim Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice Provost UTEP College of Business Administration Robert Nachtmann, Dean Steve Johnson, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 5 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX , USA, (915)