SNAP Employment & Training: Exit Cohort Five-Year Longitudinal Study

Transcription

1 AUTOMATED FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM 2010 Report SNAP Employment & Training: Exit Cohort Five-Year Longitudinal Study Hiwot Berhane and Jesse Sampson Contact:

2 SNAP Employment and Training is one of the only federal programs designed solely to provide targeted employment and training resources to help extremely low-skilled, low-income adults achieve economic self-sufficiency. National Skills Coalition Report, 2011 The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Employment & Training (SNAP E&T) program promotes long-term self-sufficiency and independence by preparing SNAP recipients for employment through work-related education and training activities. The goal of SNAP E&T is to assist SNAP recipients in obtaining employment, including provision of work opportunities for 18- to 50-year-old Able-Bodied Adults Without Dependents (ABAWDs) through participation in work programs and education and training activities. The SNAP population comprises many individuals with severe barriers to employment including a lack of education, skills and employment history (National Skills Coalition 2011). In the Texas PY 2009 SNAP E&T cohort population, for example, one-third of the cohort had less than a high school degree or GED while only one in five had any postsecondary education. Fully 44 percent were males with no postsecondary education. Employment and training services are often otherwise unavailable to SNAP recipients who do not receive Temporary Assistance for Needy Families/TANF). Thus, SNAP E&T plays a vital role in the Texas workforce delivery system for individuals facing high barriers to employment. SNAP E&T is currently under discussion at the national level as Congress considers the program as part of deliberations surrounding the 2012 Farm Bill. For a description of SNAP E&T in Texas including eligibility and services, visit Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 2

3 Methodology The Labor Market and Career Information (LMCI) division of TWC received the original program year 2009 (PY2009) file containing 274,606 seed records for the Choices program. Each seed record represents a unique program service event associated with a participant Social Security Number (SSN). Because many participants received more than one service, the input file included many duplicates of the same SSN. The records were grouped by SSN and service code in order to eliminate as much duplication as possible, and records with service codes not used by the Choices program were deleted. We then deleted records with invalid registration dates. Once that was complete, the records were unduplicated by SSN and by activity. If a participant appeared in more than one activity, the record for the activity of priority was retained and other record was deleted. This left 25,900 unique seed records for analysis. Purpose of the Report Senate Bill 281 (2003) requires the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) to, at least annually, issue an analysis of the job placement performance of each workforce development program by occupation and by training provider (possibly including other relevant data), for the previous one-year, three-year, and five-year periods. TWC s Labor Market and Career Information (LMCI) department fulfills this mandate. We provide these data in the spirit of continuous improvement and do not seek to single out or punish any program, provider or geography. LMCI s mission is to improve the way Texans make career and educational decisions by providing useful and reliable information about careers, educational training options and jobs. For more information, visit Structure of the Report This report addresses the set of individuals (cohort) that exited Choices programs in The report examines a snapshot of the cohort s outcomes, i.e. their employment and median earnings, in the fourth quarter of 2009 (Q42009). Three-year and five-year snapshots of this cohort s outcomes in Q42012 and Q42014 will be added to the report as the data become available. The report s body provides a high-level overview and analysis of the data. Detailed tables of all measures discussed can be found in appendix A. All data are from LMCI s follow-up analysis unless otherwise noted. Methodology If the linkage to the Q42009 UI Wage Record database records resulted in a match for any program participant, that participant s earnings and the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code for the employer of record were both retained for analysis. If a participant was found employed by more than one employer, the sum of the participant s earnings and the NAICS code of the employer paying the most wages were retained for analysis. Caveats About the Data and Analysis To our knowledge, there is no better source of data on labor market outcomes than UI wage records, but these data have some limitations. UI wage records do not cover individuals engaged in certain types of employment ranging from domestic workers to railroads. The collection of UI wage data involves editing to clean incoming data, but Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 3

4 inaccurate records may remain in the system unless and until a claim for UI benefits is filed. SSNs are not validated against a national database: fraudulent SSNs may be present in the data as well as multiple individuals using one SSN (leading to outlandishly high earnings in some cases). Neither occupational title nor hours worked per quarter are reported, preventing us from calculating hourly wage and determining relatedness of training to employment or part-time/full-time status. This characteristic of the data sometimes leads to very low earnings in the case of individuals who worked for only part of a quarter we sampled. Despite these limitations, data from UI wage records provide an invaluable glimpse of post-exit achievements of workforce training participants. The period was characterized by extreme economic volatility due to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent global financial crisis. As a result, the unemployment rate of the U.S. and of Texas both increased markedly: from 5.2 percent to 8.1 percent in Texas and from 5.0 to 9.9 percent nationally. 1 The Texas median worker s earnings grew by 6.8 percent from on a current-dollar basis. 2 After adjusting for inflation, we see that the Texas median worker experienced a loss in earnings over the period of 2.76 percent. 3 Many factors, particularly the dynamics of the local economy and interplay with national and international trends all drive the metrics we use. The metrics tell part of the story about performance, but should not be used alone to make judgments about the quality (or lack thereof) of a single provider, Workforce Development Area or program. 1 US Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics. 2 US Census Bureau, American Community Survey One-Year Estimates, Worker divided by four to derive median quarterly earnings. 3 LMCI uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) to adjust for inflation. We solve the equation E 2/E 1=CPI 2/CPI 1 where E 1 = current-dollar earnings, E 2=adjusted earnings, CPI 1=average CPI for past years and CPI 2=average CPI for Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 4

5 Results: Exit Cohort Figure 1 displays change in labor market outcome measures for the SNAP E&T exit cohort by selected demographic characteristics. ABAWDs saw a larger loss in employment and a smaller gain in earnings than the general SNAP population, Figure 1: Employment by Selected Characteristics possibly indicating greater barriers to employment for this group. Females again had superior labor market outcomes to makes. African-American/Black customers had the highest median quarterly earnings growth but had a greater loss in employment than other groups. At the same time, Asian and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander customers had the lowest losses in employment but had relatively small gains in median quarterly earnings. Younger customers tended to have better labor market trends over the period as they are likely to enter employment for the first time. Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 5

6 Over the period we see a dramatic improvement in the earnings distribution for this exit cohort. The distribution became much more equitable, with the median increasing by twothirds over the period. The greatest change was seen in the lowest-earning bin of individuals (less than $1,600) over 6,000 were found in this earnings range in 2005, while fewer than 3,000 were found in the same range in Figure 2: Distribution of (Nonzero) Quarterly Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 6

7 Participants in all Workforce Development Areas were employed at a lower rate in 2005 than in The smallest losses were seen in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with the percent found employed staying nearly flat in Lower Rio Grande Valley WDA (McAllen-Harlingen area) and falling by 3.3 percent in South Texas (Laredo area). quarterly earnings more than doubled in South Plains WDA (Lubbock area). Relatively small gains were observed in Rural Capital WDA (Round Rock-San Marcos area excluding Travis County) and in Brazos Valley WDA (College Station-Bryan area). Figure 3: Employment and Quarterly by LWDA Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 7

8 Home Health Care services increased its share of employment by 2.2 percent and was the number one employer for the cohort in 2009, replacing the often temporary Employment Services industry. General government support replaced Services to Buildings and Dwellings in the top ten. Table 1: Outcomes by Top Ten Industries, 2005 Industry of Employment N Working Earning % of Employed Employment Services 2,336 $1, % Home Health Care Services 1,051 $1, % Limited-Service Eating Places 1,024 $1, % Elementary and Secondary Schools 664 $2, % Other General Merchandise Stores 599 $2, % Full-Service Restaurants 550 $1, % Nursing Care Facilities 344 $2, % Grocery Stores 328 $2, % Services to Buildings and Dwellings 320 $1, % Gasoline Stations 309 $2, % Table 2: Outcomes by Top Ten Industries, 2009 Industry of Employment N Working Earning % of Employed Home Health Care Services 1,123 $2, % Employment Services 998 $2, % Limited-Service Eating Places 733 $2, % Elementary and Secondary Schools 630 $4, % Other General Merchandise Stores 490 $4, % Full-Service Restaurants 452 $2, % Nursing Care Facilities 368 $3, % Grocery Stores 287 $3, % Gasoline Stations 252 $3, % Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 229 $6, % Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 8

9 Results: Retainers Most of the same trends that applied to the exit cohort as a whole also held true for retainers. ABAWDs were retained at a lower rate and had less earnings Figure 4: Employment by Selected Characteristics growth than the general population, and females exceeded males in employment retention and median quarterly earnings growth. Those under 21 were retained at a comparable rate to those 22-40, indicating that while many of these individuals entered employment, relatively few were able to remain employed steadily over the study period. Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 9

10 Retainers also saw strong earnings growth and an improved earnings distribution. The number of retainers in extreme poverty dwindled over the study period, many bringing in over $5,000 in quarterly earnings as compared to Figure 5: Distribution of (Nonzero) Quarterly Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 10

11 In terms of emplyoment retention, South Texas again performed well, this time with South Texas WDA in the lead followed by Lower Rio Grande and Coastal Bend (Victoria area). Central Texas (Killeen area) faced a particularly difficult labor market with a retention rate of 34 percent. growth for retainers mirrored that for the cohort overall, with particularly positive results seen in South Plains WDA and also in South East Texas WDA (Beaumont-Port Arthur area). Figure 6: Employment Retention and Quarterly by LWDA Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 11

12 Most retainers were also employed in Home Health Care Services or Employment Services. General Government Support had the highest median earnings of the top ten industries. Table 3: Outcomes by Top Ten Industries Industry of Employment N Working Earning % of Retainers Home Health Care Services 598 $2, % Employment Services 567 $3, % Elementary and Secondary Schools 430 $4, % Limited-Service Eating Places 392 $2, % Other General Merchandise Stores 308 $4, % Nursing Care Facilities 240 $4, % Full-Service Restaurants 225 $3, % Grocery Stores 162 $4, % Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 155 $7, % General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 139 $6, % Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 12

13 Appendix A: Detailed Labor Market Outcomes (Cohort) Table 4: Outcomes by Workforce Development Area, 2005 LWDA N % Working Earning Alamo 1, $2,813 Capital Area $3,000 Rural Capital $3,196 Permian Basin $2,446 Golden Crescent $2,423 Concho Valley $2,515 Tarrant County 1, $3,130 Heart of Texas $2,704 North Texas $2,241 South Texas $2,678 North Central $2,809 Dallas 2, $2,631 Brazos Valley $2,887 West Central $2,321 South East Texas $2,002 Coastal Bend 1, $2,161 South Plains $1,761 Central Texas $2,171 Panhandle $2,076 Unknown $2,458 East Texas $2,222 Gulf Coast 9, $2,597 Middle Rio Grande $2,025 Upper Rio Grande $1,939 Deep East Texas $1,991 Lower Rio Grande Valley 2, $2,035 Cameron County $1,930 North East Texas $1,866 Texoma $2,748 Total 29, $2,459 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 13

14 Table 5: Outcomes by Workforce Development Area, 2009 LWDA N % Working Earning South Texas $3,897 Alamo 1, $4,340 Golden Crescent $3,630 Rural Capital $4,336 Lower Rio Grande Valley 2, $3,698 Concho Valley $4,402 Coastal Bend 1, $3,377 Capital Area $4,655 Middle Rio Grande $3,481 Brazos Valley $4,079 West Central $3,791 Tarrant County 1, $4,960 Unknown $3,589 Gulf Coast 9, $4,487 Dallas 2, $4,423 North Central $4,350 South Plains $3,849 Upper Rio Grande $3,519 South East Texas $3,837 Permian Basin $3,706 Heart of Texas $3,968 Cameron County $3,334 Panhandle $3,400 Deep East Texas $3,708 North Texas $3,747 East Texas $3,823 North East Texas $3,509 Texoma $3,906 Central Texas $3,721 Total 29, $4,067 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 14

15 Table 6: Outcomes by Gender, 2005 Gender N % Working Earning Female 16, $2,188 Male 13, $2,890 Total 29, $2,459 Table 7: Outcomes by Gender, 2009 Gender N % Working Earning Female 16, $3,865 Male 13, $4,553 Total 29, $4,067 Table 8: Outcomes by SNAP E&T Classification, 2005 Classification N % Working Earning ABAWD 14, $2,496 E&T General Population 14, $2,420 Total 29, $2,459 Table 9: Outcomes by SNAP E&T Classification, 2009 Classification N % Working Earning E&T General Population 14, $4,155 ABAWD 14, $3,986 Total 29, $4,067 Table 10: Outcomes by Ethnicity, 2005 Ethnicity N % Working Earning Unknown $2,611 Black 9, $2,361 Hispanic 11, $2,431 American Indian $2,047 Asian $2,933 White 7, $2,633 Hawaiian/Pacific Islander $2,839 Total 29, $2,459 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 15

16 Table 11: Outcomes by Ethnicity, 2009 Ethnicity N % Working Earning Hispanic 11, $3,950 Hawaiian/Pacific Islander $4,464 Asian $4,356 Black 9, $4,078 White 7, $4,285 American Indian $2,970 Unknown $4,748 Total 29, $4,067 Table 12: Outcomes by Age, 2005 Age N % Working Earning , $2,492 Less than 21 2, $1, , $2,586 Total 29, $2,459 Table 13: Outcomes by Age, 2009 Age N % Working Earning Less than 21 2, $3, , $4, , $4,202 Total 29, $4,067 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 16

17 Table 14. Higher Education Dashboard Summary of Linkage N % of Cohort N % Higher Education Enrollment by Institution Type Working Only 9, $4,172 2, Community/Technical Colleges & Career Schools/Colleges Pursuing Higher Education Only 1, Public or Private Universities & Health Science Centers Working & Pursuing High Ed. 1, $4,550 3, Total Found Enrolled Subtotal for All Working 11, $4,227 All Enrolled 3, $4,550 Not Verified 14, Subtotal 27, $4,227 TX Vital Statistics 2, $2,185 Total 30,055. $4,090 Top 10 LWDAs by Enrollment N Number Enrolled %of All Enrolled Top 10 Public Postsecondary Institutions N % of All Enrolled Top 10 Majors (6-digit Classification of Instructional Programs Code) N % of All Enrolled Gulf Coast 8,436 1, Houston Community College Liberal Arts and Sciences Dallas 2, South Texas College Nursing Lower Rio Grande Valley 2, DCCCD El Centro Undeclared Alamo 1, Howard College Business Operations Support & Assistant Tarrant County 1, El Paso CCD Ground Transportation Permian Basin Victoria College Criminal Justice and Corrections Coastal Bend TSTC Harlingen Human Development Heart of Texas Lone Star College - N. Harris Allied Health Professions Upper Rio Grande TSTC West Texas Business Administration, Management & Operations Capital Area Austin Community Computer and Information College Sciences, General Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 17

18 Appendix B: Detailed Labor Market Outcomes (Retainers) Table 15: Outcomes by Workforce Development Area LWDA N of Retainers % Working % Change, South Texas $2,912 $4, % Alamo $3,285 $4, % Coastal Bend $2,504 $3, % Lower Rio Grande Valley $2,306 $3, % Middle Rio Grande $2,224 $3, % Golden Crescent $2,600 $4, % Concho Valley $2,888 $5, % Brazos Valley $3,417 $4, % Gulf Coast 2, $3,107 $5, % Dallas $3,227 $4, % Texoma $3,362 $4, % West Central $2,705 $4, % Upper Rio Grande $2,247 $4, % Capital Area $3,954 $5, % Unknown $2,710 $3, % North Central $3,162 $4, % Rural Capital $3,774 $5, % Tarrant County $4,165 $5, % Deep East Texas $2,388 $4, % Cameron County $2,527 $4, % South East Texas $2,289 $4, % Heart of Texas $3,247 $4, % South Plains $2,306 $4, % Permian Basin $3,091 $4, % Panhandle $2,449 $3, % East Texas $2,800 $4, % North Texas $2,942 $3, % North East Texas $2,325 $4, % Central Texas $3,132 $4, % Total 7, $2,894 $4, % Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 18

19 Table 18: Outcomes by Gender Gender N of Retainers % Working % Change, Female 4, $2,541 $4, % Male 2, $3,569 $5, % Total 7, $2,894 $4, % Table 17: Outcomes by SNAP E&T Classification Classification N of Retainers % Working % Change, E&T General Population 3, $2,769 $4, % ABAWD 3, $3,065 $4, % Total 7, $2,894 $4, % Table 18: Outcomes by Ethnicity Ethnicity N of Retainers % Working % Change, Hawaiian/Pacific Islander $2,768 $5, % Asian $3,138 $5, % Hispanic 3, $2,753 $4, % Black 2, $2,846 $4, % Unknown $3,216 $4, % White 1, $3,253 $4, % American Indian $3,251 $3, % Total 7, $2,894 $4, % Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 19

20 Table 19: Outcomes by Age Age N of Retainers % Working % Change, , $2,916 $4, % Under $1,926 $3, % , $3,073 $4, % Total 7, $2,894 $4, % Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 20