Project RIO: Exit Cohort

Transcription

1 AUTOMATED FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM 2010 Report Project RIO: Exit Cohort Hiwot Berhane and Jesse Sampson Contact:

2 Re-Integration of Offenders: Project RIO Project RIO is a collaborative partnership between three state agencies, the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ), the Texas Youth Commission (TYC), and the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). It helps ex-offenders and adjudicated youth reenter the labor market by equipping them with the necessary skills, attitudes, and abilities, and guiding them toward postrelease job opportunities. Pre-release Project RIO services are provided by TDCJ and TYC within their respective correctional facilities to prepare offenders and adjudicated youth for their eventual return to the labor market. Services for adult offenders are prioritized based upon projected release date. In TDCJ prisons, adult offenders are offered services 24 months prior to their projected release date, while at state jails offenders are offered services 18 months prior to projected release. Offenders assigned to substance abuse felony punishment facilities are eligible for Project RIO services six months prior to release. TYC adjudicated youth are generally offered services six months from projected release. In the correctional environment, Project RIO promotes vocational, academic, and life skills preparation to releasees, refers participants to relevant correctional unit work assignments, develops reentry plans, and assists participants with obtaining the documents necessary to secure and retain employment after release. Post-release Project RIO services are provided through cooperative agreements between TWC and the 28 Local Workforce Development Boards (Boards) serving Texas employers and job seekers. These services build upon the services provided to TDCJ offenders and TYC adjudicated youth during incarceration. Post-release services are offered to adult ex-offenders for a period up to one year following the discharge of their sentence. TYC adjudicated youth ages 16 through 21 are also targeted for post-release Project RIO services. Criminal justice parole partners play a critical role in referring unemployed and underemployed ex-offenders and adjudicated youth to the Texas workforce system for services. For the biennium, Project RIO s appropriation was zero. LMCI will continue to evaluate the labor market outcomes of RIO cohorts still in the pipeline and follow these individuals longitudinally per SB 281. Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 1

3 Methodology The Labor Market and Career Information (LMCI) division of TWC received the original program year 2009 (PY2009) file containing 92,239 seed records for Project RIO. Each seed record represents a unique program service event associated with a participant Social Security Number (SSN). Because many participants received more than one service, the input file included many duplicates of the same SSN. The records were grouped by SSN and service code in order to eliminate as much duplication as possible. This left 18,483 unique seed records for analysis. After performing linkages to the Texas Bureau of Vital Statistics database to identify and exclude deceased participants, 18,393 records remained. Purpose of the Report Senate Bill 281 (2003) requires the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) to, at least annually, issue an analysis of the job placement performance of each workforce development program by occupation and by training provider (possibly including other relevant data), for the previous one-year, three-year, and five-year periods. TWC s Labor Market and Career Information (LMCI) department fulfills this mandate. We provide these data in the spirit of continuous improvement and do not seek to single out or punish any program, provider or geography. LMCI s mission is to improve the way Texans make career and educational decisions by providing useful and reliable information about careers, educational training options and jobs. For more information, visit Structure of the Report This report addresses the set of individuals (cohort) that exited Choices programs in The report examines a snapshot of the cohort s outcomes, i.e. their employment and median earnings, in the fourth quarter of 2009 (Q42009). Three-year and five-year snapshots of this cohort s outcomes in Q42012 and Q42014 will be added to the report as the data become available. The report s body provides a high-level overview and analysis of the data. Detailed tables of all measures discussed can be found in the appendices. All data are from LMCI s follow-up analysis unless otherwise noted. Caveats About the Data and Analysis To our knowledge, there is no better source of data on labor market outcomes than UI wage records, but these data have some limitations. UI wage records do not cover individuals engaged in certain types of employment ranging from domestic workers to railroads. The collection of UI wage data involves editing to clean incoming data, but inaccurate records may remain in the system unless and until a claim for UI benefits is filed. SSNs are not validated against a national database: fraudulent SSNs may be present in the data as well as multiple individuals using one SSN (leading to Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 2

4 outlandishly high earnings in some cases). Neither occupational title nor hours worked per quarter are reported, preventing us from calculating hourly wage and determining relatedness of training to employment or part-time/full-time status. This characteristic of the data sometimes leads to very low earnings in the case of individuals who worked for only part of a quarter we sampled. Despite these limitations, data from UI wage records provide an invaluable glimpse of post-exit achievements of workforce training participants. The period was characterized by extreme economic volatility due to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent global financial crisis. As a result, the unemployment rate of the U.S. and of Texas both increased markedly: from 4.4 percent to 8.1 percent in Texas and from 5.0 to 9.9 percent nationally. As a point of reference, the percent of Texans employed fell 3.7 percent from The Texas median worker s earnings were nearly flat, growing by 0.63 percent on a current dollar basis from After adjusting for inflation (2009 constant dollars), we see that the Texas median worker s earnings decreased by 2.74 percent. 3 1 US Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics. 2 US Census Bureau, American Community Survey One-Year Estimates, Median Worker Earnings, divided by four to derive median quarterly earnings. 3 Inflation adjustment based on Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) to adjust for inflation. We solve the equation E 2/E 1=CPI 2/CPI 1 where E 1 = current-dollar earnings, E 2=adjusted earnings, CPI 1=average CPI for past years and CPI 2=average CPI for Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 3

5 Results Figure 1 displays percent change in employment and median quarterly earnings for the cohort over the period Q42007 to Q Figure 1: Employment by Selected Characteristics The Support Activities service group made up the vast bulk of participants and had employment outcomes in line with the overall cohort average but slightly higher-thanaverage earnings growth. While they represent only a small sample, participants in the Procedural group had lower employment losses than the cohort overall. Those in the Terminal Result, Core Work Search and Marketing Incentives groups had higher earnings growth than the overall cohort. In terms of gender, females had lower employment losses and much higher earnings growth than males (or those in the other/unknown category) even though the cohort is predominately male. Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 4

6 While it still remained below the Texas median worker s 2009 median earnings of $6,663, the median quarterly earnings of RIO participants increased by nearly $700 from Q42007 to Q42009 (Figure 2). In addition, while fewer participants were employed in Q42009 than in Q42007, the distribution of earnings improved, with relatively more individuals in the higher end of the earnings distribution. Figure 2: Distribution of (Nonzero) Quarterly Earnings Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 5

7 Figure 3 displays change in percent employed and change in median quarterly earnings by Local Workforce Development Area (LWDA). South Texas LWDA (Laredo Area) had by far the best overall performance with a relatively low employment loss of 11 percent and a percent increase in median quarterly earnings. Figure 3: Labor Market Outcomes by LWDA Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 6

8 The labor market essentially fell out from under this exit cohort in the period studied evidence can be observed in nearly all of our analysis tables presented here. In both snapshot quarters, Employment Services employed about one out of five employed individuals. However, the raw number decreased from 1,489 to 603. The largest loss was in Nonresidential Building Construction which dropped out of the top ten during the study period. Table 1: Outcomes by Top Ten Industries of Employment, 2007 Industry of Employment N Working % of Employed Median Earnings Employment Services 1, $1,713 Limited-Service Eating Places $1,880 Full-Service Restaurants $2,307 Animal Slaughtering and Processing $4,369 Building Equipment Contractors $4,868 Support Activities for Mining $8,940 Automotive Repair and Maintenance $3,250 Nonresidential Building Construction $5,832 Services to Buildings and Dwellings $2,601 Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors $4,153 Table 2: Outcomes by Top Ten Industries of Employment, 2009 Industry of Employment N Working % of Employed Median Earnings Employment Services $1,631 Limited-Service Eating Places $2,370 Full-Service Restaurants $2,384 Building Equipment Contractors $6,968 Animal Slaughtering and Processing $5,802 Automotive Repair and Maintenance $4,076 Services to Buildings and Dwellings $3,811 Support Activities for Mining $8,464 Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors $4,555 Traveler Accommodation $3,432 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 7

9 Results, Retainers Figure 4 displays employment retention and median quarterly earnings change for employment retainers, who were found employed in both Q42007 Figure 4: Employment by Selected Characteristics and Q In terms of service group, Terminal Result and Core Work Search participants had higher-than-expected employment retention. Female retainers had higher employment retention and median quarterly earnings growth than male retainers, who had flat median quarterly earnings. Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 8

10 In Figure 2, which displays the distribution of quarterly earnings (for all those with more than zero earnings in each period), we observe a small increase in the median and an increase in the number of individuals earning over $8,000 (bars to the right of the second bar). Figure 5: Distribution of (Nonzero) Quarterly Earnings Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 9

11 For retainers, the picture was different across geographies compared to the cohort as a whole. Concho Valley WDA (San Angelo area) had the highest retention rate, 54.5 percent, while South Texas and Lower Rio Grande Valley (McAllen-Harlingen area) WDAs had the highest median quarterly earnings growth. Figure 6: Labor Market Outcomes by LWDA Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 10

12 The industrial mix for retainers was similar to that of the overall cohort in Q The high earnings for Support Activities for Mining (in Texas, overwhelmingly oil and gas production) combined with the strong earnings growth in South Texas likely indicates increased oil and gas activity in that region. Table 3: Outcomes by Top Ten Industries of Employment, Industry of Employment N Working % of Employed Median Earnings Employment Services $2,014 Limited-Service Eating Places $2,455 Full-Service Restaurants $2,510 Building Equipment Contractors $7,639 Animal Slaughtering and Processing $5,963 Automotive Repair and Maintenance $4,176 Support Activities for Mining $8,464 Services to Buildings and Dwellings $4,311 Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors $4,596 Traveler Accommodation $3,908 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 11

13 References Project RIO Program Information. Project RIO Strategic Plan Fiscal Years 2008 and Texas Workforce Commission Annual Report TRACER. Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 12

14 Appendix A: Detailed Data Tables, Cohort Table 4: Outcomes by Gender, 2007 Gender N % Working Median Earning Female 2, $2,384 Male 11, $3,582 Other $4,923 Total 14, $3,384 Table 5: Outcomes by Gender, 2009 Gender N % Working Median Earning Female 2, $3,234 Male 11, $4,339 Other $5,843 Total 14, $4,079 Table 6: Outcomes by Service Group, 2007 Service Group N % Working Median Earning Procedural $1,383 Core Work Search $6,808 Unknown $3,772 Terminal Result $3,755 Support Activities 13, $4,082 Marketing Incentives $7,069 Total 14, $4,079 Table 7: Outcomes by Service Group, 2009 Service Group N % Working Median Earning Procedural $2,580 Core Work Search $5,395 Marketing Incentives $5,254 Terminal Result $2,671 Unknown $3,105 Support Activities 13, $3,383 Total 14, $3,384 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 13

15 Table 8: Outcomes by LWDA, 2007 LWDA N % Working Median Earning Permian Basin $4,342 Rural Capital $3,847 Golden Crescent $3,593 West Central $3,139 Heart of Texas $3,413 South Plains $2,810 Panhandle $3,681 North Texas $2,931 Central Texas $3,081 Alamo 1, $3,053 North Central $4,216 East Texas $3,527 Deep East Texas $3,182 Tarrant County $3,935 Dallas 1, $3,049 Lower Rio Grande Valley $2,691 Concho Valley $3,638 South East Texas $3,061 Coastal Bend $3,296 Capital Area $3,385 Texoma $2,732 Upper Rio Grande $2,786 North East Texas $3,759 Cameron County $2,766 Middle Rio Grande $2,316 Gulf Coast 1, $3,909 Brazos Valley $3,202 South Texas $2,416 Total 14, $3,384 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 14

16 Table 9: Outcomes by LWDA, 2009 LWDA N % Working Median Earning South Plains $3,861 Concho Valley $4,722 Panhandle $4,593 Permian Basin $5,868 Golden Crescent $3,966 Coastal Bend $4,012 West Central $3,879 Central Texas $3,415 Rural Capital $5,071 Alamo 1, $3,750 Cameron County $3,679 Dallas 1, $4,015 Tarrant County $4,706 North Central $4,640 East Texas $3,710 Capital Area $4,405 Heart of Texas $3,987 Deep East Texas $4,336 Gulf Coast 1, $4,177 Upper Rio Grande $3,682 Brazos Valley $3,964 Lower Rio Grande Valley $3,804 North Texas $4,101 Texoma $2,886 South East Texas $3,879 North East Texas $4,087 South Texas $4,844 Middle Rio Grande $3,180 Total 14, $4,079 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 15

17 Table 10. Higher Education Dashboard Summary of Linkage N % of Cohort Median Earnings N % Higher Education Enrollment by Institution Type Working Only 3, $4,117 1, Community/Technical Colleges & Career Schools/Colleges Pursuing Higher Education Only Public or Private Universities & Health Science Centers Working & Pursuing High Ed $3,822 1, Total Found Enrolled Subtotal for All Working 4, $4,079 All Enrolled 1, $3,822 Not Verified 8, Subtotal 14, $4,079 TX Vital Statistics $2,949 Total 14, $4,078 Top 10 LWDAs by Enrollment N Number Enrolled %of All Enrolled Top 10 Public Postsecondary Institutions N % of All Enrolled Top 10 Majors (6-digit Classification of Instructional Programs Code) N % of All Enrolled Capital Area Houston CC Ground Transportation Panhandle Austin CC Liberal Arts and Sciences Heart of Texas DCCCD El Business Operations Centro Support and Assistance South Plains Weatherford College Precision Metal Working Gulf Coast 1, Amarillo College Quality Control & Safety Technologies/Technicians Permian Basin South Plains Business Admin, Mgmt College and Operations East Texas Alamo CCD St. Culinary Arts and Related Philips College Services Texoma Mclennan CC Computer and Information Sciences, Cameron County Lamar State College-Port Arthur Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Technologies Rural Capital Del Mar College Ground Transportation Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 16

18 Appendix B: Detailed Data Tables, Retainers Table 11: Outcomes by Gender, Gender N of Retainers Retention Rate (%) Retainer Earnings, Q42007 Retainer Earnings, Q42009 Female $3,162 $3,569 Male 2, $4,618 $4,749 Other $6,834 $6,596 Total 3, $4,299 $4,438 Table 12: Outcomes by Service Group, Service Group N of Retainers Retention Rate (%) Retainer Earnings, Q42007 Retainer Earnings, Q42009 Terminal Result $3,936 $4,059 Core Work Search $6,801 $6,990 Support Activities 3, $4,291 $4,436 Unknown $4,830 $5,616 Procedural $3,279 $4,254 Marketing Incentives $5,668 $7,069 Total 3, $4,299 $4,438 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 17

19 Table 13: Outcomes by LWDA, LWDA N of Retainers Retention Rate (%) Retainer Earnings, Q42007 Retainer Earnings, Q42009 Concho Valley $4,700 $5,197 Coastal Bend $4,379 $4,097 South Plains $3,851 $4,227 Panhandle $4,678 $4,679 Alamo $3,830 $4,010 Deep East Texas $4,544 $3,732 East Texas $3,972 $4,084 Golden Crescent $4,305 $4,091 Gulf Coast $5,071 $4,891 Cameron County $3,308 $3,666 Dallas $3,937 $4,366 Rural Capital $4,855 $5,738 Tarrant County $4,860 $5,278 Brazos Valley $4,236 $4,293 Capital Area $4,619 $5,002 West Central $4,273 $4,144 Central Texas $3,710 $4,200 Upper Rio Grande $3,733 $3,819 Permian Basin $6,290 $5,995 South Texas $3,575 $4,992 Texoma $3,283 $3,708 Heart of Texas $4,391 $4,015 North Central $5,556 $5,438 North East Texas $5,128 $4,673 Lower Rio Grande Valley $2,915 $4,005 South East Texas $3,690 $4,013 North Texas $3,688 $4,470 Middle Rio Grande $3,160 $3,417 Total 3, $4,299 $4,438 Automated Follow-up System 2010 Report 18