Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8

Transcription

1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Adam G. Walke University of Texas at El Paso, agwalke@utep.edu Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo University of Texas at El Paso, eduarteronquillo@miners.utep.edu Omar Solís University of Texas at El Paso, osolis3@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Walke, Adam G.; Ronquillo, Ernesto Duarte; and Solís, Omar, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8" (217). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.

2 August 217 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Adam G. Walke Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo Omar Solís Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8 Regional Growth Uptick Indices measuring metropolitan business cycle movements and household economic stress levels indicate that El Paso area economic conditions continue to improve. The El Paso County unemployment rate (with no seasonal adjustment) was 5. percent in June 217, slightly below the value registered in June 216. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) enrollment has also remained below levels recorded last year. The median El Paso County home price in June rose, for the fourth consecutive month, to $15,275. Months of housing inventory remain low by recent historical standards, suggesting a relatively strong local housing market. In contrast to housing prices, gasoline prices in El Paso have declined in recent months. Summer months are usually associated with increases in gasoline prices induced by a seasonal bump in travel demand. This year, however, gasoline prices are lower than in January. Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 5 West University Avenue El Paso, TX Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso tomf@utep.edu agwalke@utep.edu Telephone Fax Unemployment rates in El Paso and Doña Ana counties often tend to increase between May and June due to seasonal factors. That is true again this year, but the increases are relatively small. In the case of Doña Ana County, the unemployment rate rose to only 7.4 percent in June, compared to rates of more than 8 percent recorded in June of every year since 29. Though the most recent unemployment figure is preliminary and subject to change, it may augur a long-awaited improvement in Las Cruces area economic conditions. In another promising sign for the local economy, SNAP enrollments grew relatively little between April and June of this year. The peso-to-dollar nominal exchange rate has declined in recent months and it appears to be gradually converging towards the restaurant price ratio series collected by the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP). The latter has risen slightly, coinciding with somewhat higher general price inflation this year in Mexico relative to the United States. These trends have led to a reduction in the real exchange rate index calculated by the BRMP using data on nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in the United States and Mexico. The real exchange rate index in June was 118.3, the same as the figure recorded in March of 216. International bridge crossings have remained near the levels observed during the first half of 216. The sharp reduction in the purchasing power of the peso observed Website through January of this year appears to have had relatively little effect on the total number of northbound pedestrian and personal vehicle border crossings in the El Paso- Ciudad Juárez area. The border crossing data aggregate trips by United States and Mexican residents. Even though the total number of cross-border trips has not Border Commerce & Economics changed drastically in the last year it is possible that the recent exchange rate fluctuations may have changed the nationality composition of cross border traffic flows as consumers who earn dollar incomes can find relative bargains on items purchased in Mexico. Northbound cargo vehicle border crossings grew by about 3.1 percent during the first half 217 compared to the same period last year. Real and nominal total trade through the El Paso Customs District, which covers the ports from Antelope Wells to Presidio, increased in May and June. Export-oriented manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juárez rose to 279,972 in May 217, 9.1 percent above the figure for May 216. Other indicators for Ciudad Juárez and the state of Chihuahua indicate generally stable economic conditions.

3 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso '.,,,,,,.,_ Jllllll"""",... I I I I I I I I I Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

4 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso 6' l II O'\... ;... cu,.d ' _, >< cu "'d -"'d ! ::s <r: > 'II-... cu r/ ' Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

5 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index >< 5 +-_..,.,.--=-==----'. ----::;;o--i i:::... Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

6 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

7 El Paso County Unemployment Rate J b ! <;\ '\<;> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 El Paso County Unemployment Rate,,...,, 1 "'d (1)... ::s 9 >.. i::: 8 (1) r./' (1)... (1) E (1) ' Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment el 185, :::;;m:: , l i:: Cl) u Cl)... i 18, "' ,..._ l r./j. c...,... Cl),. ) z 175, ! Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

10 2, El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment u CJ.) :::... 18, i 16, r:/). 4-; ;..., CJ.).r:J z 14, 12, Starting in September, 214, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month. Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

11 El Paso Median Housing Prices Cl) u. ;:::::....5 E z $145, $14, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

12 El Paso Median Housing Prices v (.) i:::... ca.5 E z $14, $13, $12, $11, ' Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

13 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso r:n l Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso ' Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

15 El Paso Gasoline Prices ,.--..., = ;... Cl).. rn a ::::::l '--" Cl) u i:....s $2.5 $2. E $1.5 z Source: GasBuddy.com

16 $3. El Paso Gasoline Prices """"' $ ! ;..., Cl)... :::::::I..._,, -t---_...,._.._.... $. -< Source: GasBuddy.com

17 Dona Ana County Unemployment Rate (!)... IJl ;:::! < h IJl ro (!) r./'l... 6 (!) ::: 1:: (!) 5 > (!) : lb-<:, \ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Dofta Ana County Unemployment Rate,,.-.,. 8 -f j "'d (l) +-> r:n ;:::l 7 ; '---W J-Wl, , i::: r:n < 'C/J +-> 6 5.,_ tt j ::: 1:: (l) E S4 +--_..'-----=' i:: < Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases rfl ;..., Cl),. :) 29, k z 26, ,..., Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

20 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Q) 3, -t lt--l u... <l'.'. z r/j 4-< ;... Q).D z 2, ! 1, Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

21 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 216 Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate 2 ::::::i Cl !.. Q) , N, :V '\'b- Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

22 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate - Restaurant Price Ratio - Nominal Exchange Rate 8 ::::::::l Q!-+ Q) j rfj rfj Q) Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

23 Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index ,.-,. 14 -t- 8 - II 11 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

24 Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index 6' II {'" , >< $:::: , Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

25 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,2, Cl)... u t+-< ;... Cl) z 1,1, 1,, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

26 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,5, ,4, Q)... u 1,1, '" l!--; ] 1,, s z 9, 6, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

27 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso rn - 6, rn cu "'C cu... ;... cu.d 5, z 4, 'b-<;\ \-::> Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

28 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 8, rn.e 7, (1) "O (1).. 4-o 1--o (1) 6, 3 z 5, 4, ' Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

29 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso rn u 2 7, f--< u (+...; ii), :) s 6, z 5, ! :\> '\ Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

30 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso r:n 7, bl) ;..., u 4-o ;..., Q), :; 5, I 3, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

31 V'l Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $1, Q + t $7, <.. &j '--" l-+ r ] $6, <.;:,. \'?!- Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

32 Vl a ::::::l Cl.s E z <.+-.; Vl i::: a.s,,---._ Vl t::.. E... + Vl t::.. >< w '--' Cl) "O ro ca... $1, $8, $6, $4, Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $2, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

33 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District C/'l :::::::! Q N O'\ -c..-. C/'l i::: ;:.s Cl) '"d Cd... $5, $4,5 $4, $3,5 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

34 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District ::::::l Cl N O'\ -I..+-; rll i::: s.s Cl) "'d ca... $5, $4, $3, $1, ,--J Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez , 28, ti)., ) _, (+..., ;... Cl)., ) z 27, 26, 25, 24, Source: INEGI

36 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez 14, Source: INEGI

37 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index '... I Cl) '.._,/ >< Cl) "'d t-----< 'b-<;\ '\ Source: Banco de México

38 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index I Source: Banco de México

39 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua , Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI

40 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 6' II ,.._ a N '-" >< Source: INEGI

41 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua ,, Cl)... N, N Cl) -. I.._. '"d ;:j... 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, Source: INEGI

42 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua <l)... N 1,5, N <l)... (+...; 'g 1,25, "' ;:j 75, Source: INEGI

43 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua ' ii" 175. N '--" 15. "'d i:: Source: INEGI

44 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 6' t----- '-' >< Cl) "O... = Source: INEGI

45 University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Howard Daudistel, Interim Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice Provost UTEP College of Business Administration Robert Nachtmann, Dean Steve Johnson, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 5 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX , USA, (915)