Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 3

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1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 3 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Adam G. Walke University of Texas at El Paso, agwalke@utep.edu Omar Solís University of Texas at El Paso, osolis3@miners.utep.edu Esmeralda P. Muñiz University of Texas at El Paso, eporozcogutierrez@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Walke, Adam G.; Solís, Omar; and Muñiz, Esmeralda P., "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 3" (218). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.

2 March 218 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Adam G. Walke Omar Solís Esmeralda P. Muñiz Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 5 West University Avenue El Paso, TX Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso tomf@utep.edu agwalke@utep.edu Telephone Fax Website Border Commerce & Economics Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 3 Tailwinds and Headwinds Various statistics summarizing economic conditions in El Paso and Las Cruces point towards continued growth in both metropolitan economies. Some of the graphs presented on subsequent pages are unchanged since last month for two reasons. First, data for early 218 have not yet been released for some variables. Second, when data for only one month of 218 are available, the single data point cannot be clearly displayed on the year-to-year comparison graphs. The latter is the case for graphs of El Paso County enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The January 218 figure for that variable is 177,557. That compares favorably with enrollment figures for January 217 (18,919), January 216 (184,91), and January 215 (188,93). The downward overall trend in local SNAP enrollments is indicative of steady economic growth over the last few years in El Paso. Median El Paso County housing prices were, on average, 3.8 percent higher in 217 than in 216. However, the January 218 median housing price of $147, is nearly equal to the figure observed one year earlier, a departure from the upward trajectory observed in prior months. The statistics for housing inventory, measured in months of available supply, continue to suggest robust growth in the local housing market. The months of housing inventory indicator has declined steadily for the last four years and, as of January, stood at 5.2 months. Local gasoline prices declined from an average of $2.45 in December to $2.26 in February, which is only slightly higher than the prices observed during the first quarter of 217. In Doña Ana County, unemployment rates continue to slowly subside, after remaining stubbornly high for several years in the wake of the Great Recession. The number of Las Cruces area SNAP cases held steady at 27,383 in January and the total caseload has changed little since last April. These indicators seem to suggest that the Mesilla Valley economy still faces a rocky path to full economic recovery. Restaurant menu prices in Ciudad Juárez appear to be slowly rising, relative to those in El Paso. From January 217 to January 218 the restaurant price ratio rose from pesos per dollar to pesos per dollar. In Mexico as a whole, the pace of price inflation has picked up over the course of the last year, partly as a lagged response to prior peso depreciation. Over the same time span, the bilateral nominal exchange rate declined from 21.4 pesos per dollar in January 217 to 19. in January 218. Similarly, the inflation-adjusted peso-per-dollar exchange rate index was nearly 17 percent lower in January than one year earlier. Contributing factors include declining interest rates in the United States and a rising inflation rate in Mexico, relative to the United States. The statistics for Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua State, and Northern Mexico paint a mixed picture of overall economic health. On average, total trade through the El Paso Customs District remained flat in nominal terms from 216 to 217. US imports through the district grew by 3.8 percent while US exports declined by 5.1 percent. Export-oriented (IMMEX) manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juárez dropped for a second consecutive month in December, finishing the year at 264,49. This was the first time in 217 that IMMEX employment dipped below 216 levels and it may augur increasing difficulties related to protectionist trade policies being applied by the United States. Surprisingly, the Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index rose to 59.7 points in January 218, compared to 54. points in January 217. Stay tuned, this apparent bifurcation will ultimately prove temporary.

3 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso ' - II I""""" I I I I I I I I I Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

4 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso ,,jp:- '... "O <l) -+-' rj'j :::::$ <t: > "tk <l) \/) " Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

5 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index >< ""k---1 i:::... Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

6 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

7 El Paso County Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 1 1 El Paso County Unemployment Rate (l)... rfj 1 = 9 >. i:: 8 rfj ro (l) IZJ (l)... 6 = (l)..... E (l) = ' Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment , :::;;i== l i::: <!) a... (.) <!) :::... i 18, -f----""'lllk: l if1 '+-<... <!), :) a z 175, ! Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

10 2, El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment. 1 i::: <1.> a... 18, C,) <1.> CZ:::.. i 16, rn (.;..; i-. <1.>.D ;z: 14, 12, Starting in September, 214, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month. Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

11 El Paso Median Housing Prices Cl) u. ;:::::....5 E z $1 5, $145, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

12 El Paso Median Housing Prices <l) u -....s E z $14, $13, $12, $11, r' Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

13 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso !!!llll l ! rfi...,'b- Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso -+-, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

15 El Paso Gasoline Prices '2 ;..., Q).. rfj :::::i..._, Cl Q) (..). i::... $2.5 $2..5 E $1.5 z Source: GasBuddy.com

16 El Paso Gasoline Prices "2 $4. ;..., Cl)... $3. -i----..t-a-----tl ,_ l :::::::I '--" $. -< Source: GasBuddy.com

17 Dona Ana County Unemployment Rate (!)... IJl ;:::! < h IJl ro (!) r./'l... 6 (!) ::: 1:: (!) 5 > (!) : 'b-<:i \$'v Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Dofia Ana County Unemployment Rate, ! "d Q)... rjl ;::::$ 7 -t l w9-ta a-tll- i:: rjl r/j A:: = f ::: 1:: Q) 5 S = i:: ! Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Ul 1--o <l.).. s 29, ! z 26, -T '\ Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

20 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Q) 3, -t , l u... <l'.'. z r/j 4-< ;... Q).D z 2, ' ! 1, Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

21 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 216 Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate Restaurant Price Ratio Nominal Exchange Rate Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

22 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate - Restaurant Price Ratio - Nominal Exchange Rate < Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

23 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index II t'- 11 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

24 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index II r: u '-" "'O < Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

25 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,2, r/j... cu u :E 4-< ;..., cu.d z 1,1, 1,, 9, \# Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

26 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,5, r:n (1)... u 1,2, 1,1, ;... ] 1,, < z 9, 8, 7, 6, '

27 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso , -l :: 'ollllllll:= :: = -==i (!) '"d (!)... <+-< (!).D 5, +---F z

28 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 8, rn a.s rn 7, -<-- <U '"O (l)... 4-< ;... (l) 6, z 5, 4,

29 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso ,

30 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso rj'j 7, u (.+...; 1--o <!),D s z 5, 3, _, '

31 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District rfl Jg $1, Cl <rj.s E t; $9, r-----jliii ,_----i rfl s 2 $8, ,,;-I rfl t::...e + rfl 5 $7, l w '--" v "O ro 'El $6, , ,.-----, r ,-----, r i Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

32 rl.l a c;j.s E z '-+--< rl.l a.s,--... rl.l t:: p., E... + rl.l t:: p., >< U.l '--' (1) '"d ro c;j...?2 $1, $8, $6, $4, Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $2, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

33 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District :::::::::! Q N ' '+-< i::: a.s Q) "O ro Cd... $5, $4,5 $4, $3,5

34 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District r/j ::::::l Q N... c..., r/j i::... ::::::l....s Cl) "'d c;;j ca...?3 $5, $4, $3, $1,, , r , , r-----,-----, ,

35 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez , 28, r:n.d -, <+-< lo- (l).d ;z: 27, 26, 25, 24, Source: INEGI

36 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez 14, Source: INEGI

37 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index '... I Cl) '--" >< Cl) "'O... = Cb- -;::> \'b- Source: Banco de México

38 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 6 I Source: Banco de México

39 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua ' Jb _, N "d , Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI

40 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua - II N '--"' "'O i::: Source: INEGI

41 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua ,, rn rn (!)... N,... N (!)..., '-+--< rn "'O g rn ;:::l : 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, Source: INEGI

42 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua rn rn Cl)... N 1,5, N Cl)..., 4-.. rn g 1,25, rn ;::::i 75, Source: INEGI

43 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua ' II 115.oo '--' 15. "'d h Source: INEGI

44 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 6'... Jb g , >< (!) "O i::: Source: INEGI

45 University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Carol Parker, Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice Provost UTEP College of Business Administration Robert Nachtmann, Dean Steve Johnson, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 5 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX , USA, (915)