Ames Economic Outlook, July 2015 Peter F. Orazem

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1 Economic Outlook, July 2015 Peter F. Orazem Job Market The metro area lost 3,900 jobs in June, mostly due to a loss in state government educational jobs. The metro had an unemployment rate of 3.1 percent. Des Moines Register July 21, 2015 When the June employment numbers were released by Workforce Development, someone in the real estate business asked me if this would stall the housing market. In fact, this happens every year in at the end of the State spring semester. We actually lost 4,200 government jobs but added 300 private sector jobs between May and June this year. The huge job loss is due to the ending of term contracts for ISU employees in temporary jobs including TAs, RAs, instructors and students on work study. That is how can lose over 7% of its jobs in one month and still have an unemployment rate of 3.1%. Ironically, on the same day, I was contacted by a Wall Street Journal reporter wondering why the job market was so strong. In highly seasonal job markets such as the market, the only way to measure job market strength is by comparing changes from the same month in prior years. Compared to June 2014, added 500 jobs or 1% annual growth. All of the growth is in the private sector. In fact, we added 600 jobs in the private sector making up for the loss of 100 government sector jobs over the year. Over the past 5 years, it is private sector expansion that is driving the strength of the labor market. As shown in Table 1, the private sector is responsible for all but 100 jobs of the growth since June The 2.9% per year growth in private sector jobs is faster that Des Moines over that period. Only the more rapid growth in public sector jobs In Des Moines compared to explains why the Des Moines labor market has grown faster overall. 1 Combined, the and Des Moines labor markets represent 40% of the job growth in over the past 5 years. Of the 9 metropolitan areas, has continued to grow faster over the past year than all but Des Moines, Omaha-Council Bluffs and Sioux City. Four metro areas lost jobs since June Figures 1-3 show the trends in sectoral employment growth in compared to the Des Moines metro and to the state as a whole. The first figure shows that has experienced steady growth for 4 years after stagnating for the first 10 years of the century. In contrast, the state as a whole only recently poked above its 2005 employment level. The faster growth in Des Moines reflects a 15% gain in government sector jobs since 2005 compared to only 5% growth in and a net loss of public sector jobs for the state as a whole. has experienced faster private sector job growth since 2005 relative to both Des Moines and to the state as a whole. 1 This will change in September 2015 when the 9 month ISU jobs are added and job growth will again dominate job growth in Des Moines over the 5 year stretch.

2 Housing Market Considerable attention is paid to the state of the housing market. As reported last year, housing prices in appreciated faster than in comparison cities, reflecting the faster job growth in, the rapid expansion of the university enrollment, and the constraints on spaces for new residential construction. The city has since annexed new land designated for residential construction, the university has stated that it is going to plateau at roughly 35,000 students, and job growth in appears to have moderated in the past year. That should ease the upward pressure on housing prices, especially when new units come available this fall. However, as shown in Figure 4, total building permits in have not yet recovered to the annual level that held in In contrast, Polk County has fully recovered and Johnson County is within 20% of 2005 pace of new residential construction. The early indicators suggest an increase in new planned residential construction in. As of May 2015, new permits in show a 5% increase in value of construction and a 13% increase in units compared to May However, we still show an atypical propensity to build multifamily rather than single family units. Roughly 40% of the permits in are for single family compared to 60% in Johnson County and 70% in Polk County, a pattern that has continued through the first 5 months of There should be greater emphasis on single family units as the university enrollment growth abates. Retail sales 2014 was the best year in history for taxable retail sales in. and have experienced 4 straight years of accelerating growth in real retail sales (Figure 6). The growth experienced by in 2014 particularly benefited from an outstanding summer retail season, enhanced by the Odyssey of the Mind World Finals, the Farm Progress Show, and several other large summer events. The and growth in taxable retail sales were in stark contrast to the rest of the state that experienced declining retail sales. With no major tourism draw this summer save for the usual annual events ( Games, Midnight Madness, Special Olympics), we will be unlikely to eclipse 2014 s results in However, The Convention and Visitors Bureau reports that we have had more small events in 2015, particularly in youth sports events. This rising market presence is shoring up demand for our local retail and hospitality sectors in what otherwise would have been a down season.

3 Table 1: Employment change between June 2010 and June 2015,, Des Moines, and Des Moines Sector Change % a Change % a Change % a Total Nonfarm 4, % 35, % 100, % Total Private 4, % 34, % 102, % Goods Producing 1, % 7, % 35, % Service-Providing 2, % 28, % 65, % Private Service Providing 2, % 26, % 67, % Government % 1, % -1, % Federal Government % % -2, % State Government % % 3, % Local Government % 2, % -2, % a Average growth per year Figure 1: Nonfarm Employment Growth Growth in June nonfarm employment, Index 2005=1.0 Index, 2005= Des Moines Source: Workforce Dvelopment

4 Figure 2: Public Sector Employment Growth Growth in June government employment, Index 2005=1.0 Index, 2005= Des Moines Source: Workforce Dvelopment Figure 3: Private Sector Employment Growth Growth in June private sector employment, Index 2005=1.0 Index, 2005= Des Moines Source: Workforce Dvelopment

5 Figure 4: Residential Building Permits, and comparison markets 1.4 Total Building Permits, , Story, Polk and Johnson Counties Index = 1 in Polk County 1 Index, 2002= Johnson County 0.2 Source: Figure 5: Share of Residential Building Permits that are single family, and comparison markets 120% Fraction of newly permited building units that are single family, , Story, Polk and Johnson Counties 100% Percentage single family 80% 60% 40% 20% Polk County Johnson County Source: 0%

6 Figure 6: Growth of Taxable Retail Sales Correcting for Inflation, and. 4.00% Annual Change in Real Taxable Retail Sales, and, % 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% % 2.00% 3.00% Source: IA Figure 7: Taxable Retail Sales Relative to 2008, and comparison markets Taxable Retail Sales,, and, Index = 1 in 2008 Index

Employment Outlook for Ames and Surrounding Counties, June 2012 Peter F. Orazem Iowa State University

Employment Outlook for Ames and Surrounding Counties, June 2012 Peter F. Orazem Iowa State University Job Growth in Central Iowa In April, 2012, there were 49,700 employees in the Ames metropolitan area