2013 Payne County Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 13 Payne County Economic Outlook by Dan Rickman Regents Professor of Economics and Oklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis

2 billions percent U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product ($5): IHS Global Insight Forecast 5, 5, , , -1 5, %ΔU.S. Real GDP U.S. Real GDP

3 Quarterly U.S. Real GDP Growth (% Annualized Growth Rates) %ΔU.S. Real GDP

4 percent Annual U.S. Real GDP Component Growth U.S. GDP Durable Consumption Nondurable Consumption Services Consumption Res'l Inv't Nonres'l Inv't FedGov't S&LGov't

5 U.S. Employment Growth (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) %Change U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment (millions) -5

6 $/bbl $/mmbtu Energy Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): West Texas Intermediate Oil and Henry Hub Natural Gas WTI PNGHH

7 percent U.S. Price Inflation (Consumer Price Index) CPI-Inflation Core CPI-Inflation

8 percent Interest Rates (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) Treasury (1 year) Mortgage Rate (3 year) Fed Funds

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10 Forecast Risks (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) Uncertainty over federal fiscal policy, leading to depressed confidence and spending by consumers and businesses o we have a long-term debt problem with entitlement spending and permanence of most Bush tax cuts, not a short-term problem Risk of further slowing of growth in developing countries: Brazil, China and India Additional financial problems in the Eurozone, Greece exiting The risks combined, contribute to a percent probability of the recovery stalling

11 State Total Employment Growth 11-1 (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) US=1.86% OK=.%

12 State Total Nonfarm Employment Growth August 1-13 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Washington Montana North Dakota Minnesota Idaho Nevada Utah Colorado Arizona Georgia Texas Louisiana -1. to to to to 4. US=1.65% OK=.61%

13 Quarterly U.S. and Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Growth: (Seasonally-Adjusted Annualized Percent Change) U.S. Nonfarm Employment (millions) Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment (thousands)

14 Oklahoma Annual Nonfarm Employment Growth (%)

15 Oklahoma Annual Real Personal Income and GDP Growth (%) Real Personal Income (8-84$) Total Nonfarm Real GDP

16 Oklahoma Annual Real Personal Income Component Growth (%) Total Personal Income Wages and Salaries Dividends, Interest & Rent Nonfarm Proprietor Income Other Labor Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Payments (less)

17 Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr-1 Sep-1 Feb- Jul- Dec- May-3 Oct-3 Mar-4 Aug-4 Jan-5 Jun-5 Nov-5 Apr-6 Sep-6 Feb-7 Jul-7 Dec-7 May-8 Oct-8 Mar-9 Aug-9 Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-13 1, Oklahoma Crude Oil Production (thousands of barrels) 1, 8, 6, 4,, Oklahoma Crude Oil Production (thousands of barrels)

18 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan-4 May-4 Sep-4 Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Jan-7 May-7 Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-13 May-13, Oklahoma Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals (MMcf) 18, 16, 14, 1, 1, 8, 6, 4,, Oklahoma Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals (MMcf)

19 Oklahoma Baker Hughes Rig Count Current= Oklahoma Rig Count

20 Change in Oil and Gas Jobs: ave(1:11)-ave(1:9) Cimarron Texas Beaver Harper Woods Alfalfa Grant Kay Nowata Washington Craig Ottawa Ellis Woodward Dewey Major Blaine Garfield Kingfisher Noble Payne Logan Osage Pawnee Creek Tulsa Delaware Rogers Mayes Wagoner Cherokee Adair Roger Mills Beckham Greer Harmon Jackson Custer Washita Kiowa Tillman Caddo Comanche Cotton Lincoln Okmulgee Muskogee Canadian Oklahoma Okfuskee Sequoyah Mcintosh Haskell Cleveland Pottawatomie Seminole Grady Mcclain Hughes Pittsburg Le Flore Latimer Garvin Pontotoc Coal Stephens Murray Atoka Pushmataha Carter Johnston Jefferson -1,3 to to 5 51 to 1 11 to 3,5 Data Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) Love Marshall Bryan Choctaw Mccurtain

21 Change in Poverty Rate: 7-11 Cimarron Texas Beaver Harper Woods Woodward Ellis Dewey Alfalfa Major Blaine Grant Garfield Kingfisher Kay Noble Payne Logan Osage Pawnee Creek Nowata Craig Washington Rogers Mayes Ottawa Delaware Tulsa Wagoner Cherokee Adair Roger Mills Beckham Greer Harmon Jackson Custer Washita Kiowa Tillman Caddo Comanche Cotton Canadian Grady Stephens Lincoln Okmulgee Muskogee Oklahoma Okfuskee Sequoyah Mcintosh Haskell Cleveland Pottawatomie Seminole Mcclain Hughes Pittsburg Le Flore Latimer Pontotoc Garvin Coal Murray Atoka Pushmataha Carter Johnston Jefferson Love Marshall Bryan Choctaw Mccurtain Payne=1.6%; OK=1.5%; US=.9% -8. to to.7.7 to.1.1 to 8.3

22 3Q1 3Q 3Q3 3Q4 4Q1 4Q 4Q3 4Q4 5Q1 5Q 5Q3 5Q4 6Q1 6Q 6Q3 6Q4 7Q1 7Q 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q4 11Q1 11Q 11Q3 11Q4 1Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q4 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 Oklahoma City and Tulsa Quarterly Employment Growth (Deseasonalized, Annualized Percent Growth) OKC Tulsa OK

23 Micropolitan Area 1-11 BEA Per Capita Income Growth Micropolitan Area Williston, ND 48. Huron, SD Aberdeen, SD Dickinson, ND Woodward, OK Elk City, OK 11.4 Weatherford, OK 11.3 Duncan, OK 9.16 Guymon, OK 8.44 Bartlesville, OK 6.48 Enid, OK 6.37 Ada, OK 6.33 Ardmore, OK 5.38 Ponca City, OK 5.7 McAlester, OK 4.37 Muskogee, OK Stillwater, OK 3.77 Shawnee, OK 3.74 Miami, OK 3.34 Durant, OK Tahlequah, OK Gallup, NM Altus, OK Plainview, TX Fort Payne, AL Lamesa, TX Micropolitan Area 1-11 BEA Population Growth Micropolitan Area Williston, ND 8. Andrews, TX The Villages, FL Dickinson, ND Statesboro, GA 3.1 Tahlequah, OK 1.4 Durant, OK 1. Elk City, OK 1. Shawnee, OK.9 Weatherford, OK.9 Bartlesville, OK.8 Ardmore, OK Stillwater, OK.7 Ada, OK.6 Woodward, OK.4 Duncan, OK. Miami, OK. Enid, OK -.1 Altus, OK -.1 Muskogee, OK -. McAlester, OK -.4 Ponca City, OK Greenwood, MS Brownsville, TN Tuskegee, AL Susanville, CA Mountain Home, ID -.7

24 1M1 1M5 1M9 M1 M5 M9 3M1 3M5 3M9 4M1 4M5 4M9 5M1 5M5 5M9 6M1 6M5 6M9 7M1 7M5 7M9 8M1 8M5 8M9 9M1 9M5 9M9 1M1 1M5 1M9 11M1 11M5 11M9 1M1 1M5 1M9 13M1 # jobs 3,5 Payne County Manufacturing and Natural Resources & Mining 3,,5, 1,5 1, 5 Natural Resources and Mining Manufacturing

25 # jobs percent Payne County QCEW Employment Growth 37, 6 36, 35, , 33, - 3, -4 31, -6 3, -8 9, -1 8, % Emp Payne Total Emp -1

26 percent 1 Payne County QCEW Employment Growth Total Emp Construction Retail Trade Education Public Wholesale Trade

27 percent Payne County QCEW Employment Growth

28 8, Payne County Population 37, 8, 36, 78, 35, 76, 34, 74, 33, 7, 7, 68, 66, %Pop. Chg. 11:.6 1:.7 13: :.7 3, 31, 3, 9, 64, , Total Population Total QCEW Emp

29 thousands Stillwater City Census Residential Building Permits (Buildings),5 35, 3 5 1,5 1, US Permits Stillwater Permits

30 Annual Average Unemployment Rates (Percent) Payne Unemployment U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate

31 Payne County Total Wages 4, 1 35, 1 3, 5, , 15, 1, - 5, % Wages Payne County Wages (Thousands) -6

32 Stillwater City Sales Tax Collections 35,, 1 3,, ,, ,, 4 15,, 1,, 5,, % SalesTax Sales Tax Collections -4

33 Economic Development o Should be about increasing general social well-being o NO FREE LUNCH, there is an opportunity cost to all expenditures; there is a cost to higher taxes (e.g., on retirees) or lower expenditures elsewhere o Lake Wobegon Effect in Incentives: not all business sectors can be above average in importance warranting a subsidy o Limit incentives to business that bring new jobs, not those that shift jobs from other existing businesses (e.g., retail) o Focus on high-paying jobs, and those that leverage strengths of the community o Avoid Field of Dreams, building it does not guarantee they will come o Be wary of claims by special interests about benefits to all from what they wish (Pet Projects) o Think about investment in the community long-term; improving education (not through sports facilities); improve the conditions of the streets; ensure public safety; be cost efficient in delivery of all services o Should be evidence-based; boring competence is just fine o LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PROSPERITY WILL FOLLOW

34 Thank you for your attention