Nationwide s Health of Housing Markets (HoHM) Report
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1 Nationwide s Health of Housing Markets (HoHM) Report Nationwide Economics 2016 Q1 Data as of 2015 Q4 HoHM Report Executive Summary: The national LIHHM* remains above the break-even level of 100, despite dropping modestly at the end of 2015, suggesting thatt the overall U.S. housing market remains healthy. Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings show that the housing markets in the vast majority of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions are healthy. This suggests that most local housing markets should see sustainable expansion in the near term. Low oil prices continue to weigh on job growth and the housing outlooks for a number of MSAs in energy intensive areas, especially in Texas and Louisiana. MSAs in these two states now comprise eight of the bottom ten LIHHM performance rankings. A surprising slowdown in household growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 lowered the national LIHHM ranking, and filtered into the MSA rankings as well. Given continued solid job growth and incipient wage gains, household formations should pick up again soon, reversing the negative impacts on the latest LIHHM rankings. * Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM): A data-driven view of the near-term performance of housing markets based upon current health indicators for the national housing market and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions across the country.
2 The national LIHHM remains in the healthy zone, suggesting a sustainable U.S. housing market The current value for the national LIHHM is 105.4, the lowest level in two years. An index value over 100 suggests that the national housing market is healthy, with lower chances of a housing downturn over the next year as the index moves increasingly above the 100 break-even value. Household formations, which had been above the long-term trend for the past year, fell sharply in the fourth quarter lowering the main demographic housing demand factor in the national LIHHM. Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings show that the vast majority of metro areas across the country are healthy, indicating that few regional housing markets are vulnerable to a housing downturn but the outlook for sustainable housing activity in locall markets with strong ties to the energysector continues to deteriorate t as low oil prices persist. it National LIHHM LIHHM Scores* POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE MSA LIHHM Performance Rankings Performance Rankings* Number of MSAs POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE * See appendix for full descriptions Nationwide Economics Page 2
3 The regional LIHHM rankings continue to show that the majority of housing markets are healthy Twenty-one MSAs have a +3 ranking with an additional 156 in the +2 ranking, meaning that nearly half of all MSAs have very healthy housing markets. There are now eight MSAs with a -1 ranking, indicating a modest risk of a downturn, while an additional thirty-three MSAs are neutral. The Midwest and Northeast regions are the strongest on average solid employment growth, healthy mortgage market fundamentals, and sustainable house price gains are more widespread in these areas. MSAs in energy-intensive states (particularly in Louisiana and Texas) dominate the bottom-10 list, with an increasing number rated as negative, suggesting potential housing slowdowns over the next year. Performance Rankings +4 POSITIVE 0 NEUTRAL -4 NEGATIVE Top 10 MSAs Bottom 10 MSAs Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area 1 Dayton OH 2 Yakima WA 3 Cleveland-Elyria OH 4 Saginaw MI 5 Syracuse NY 6 Trenton NJ 7 Niles-Benton Harbor MI 8 Memphis TN-MS-AR 9 Lansing-East Lansing MI 10 Columbus OH 400 Houma-Thibodaux LA 399 Laredo TX 398 Lafayette LA 397 Victoria TX 396 Austin-Round Rock TX 395 Asheville NC 394 Hammond LA 393 San Angelo TX 392 Odessa TX 391 Watertown-Fort Drum NY Data as of 2015 Q4 Nationwide Economics Page 3
4 Only one of the top 40 * MSAs by size has a LIHHM performance ranking that is negative, while four more are neutral, suggesting that most of the major U.S. housing markets are healthy with little chance of a downturn in the near term. Performance Rankings Metropolitan Statistical Area Current Prior Qtr Prior Year 1 New York-Jersey City-White Plains NY-NJ Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA MSAs by size 3 Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights IL (Top 40), with 4 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX corresponding 5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA performance 6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA rankings 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ Dallas-Plano-Irving TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA Performance Rankings: 11 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL San Diego-Carlsbad CA POSITIVE 13 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA St Louis MO-IL Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine CA NEUTRAL 18 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI Pittsburgh PA Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA NEGATIVE 22 Nassau County-Suffolk County NY Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC Miami-Miamii i Beach-Kendall FL Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL Cambridge-Newton-Framingham MA Newark NJ-PA Fort Worth-Arlington TX Cleveland-Elyria OH Cincinnati OH-KY-IN San Antonio-New Braunfels TX Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade CA Philadelphia PA Kansas City MO-KS Columbus OH Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN Boston MA Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-FL Data as of 2015 Q4 40 Austin-Round Rock TX * Largest 40 determined by number of households Nationwide Economics Page 4
5 Demographics should turn positive again for housing demand soon, in spite of a surprising decline in household growth at the end of 2015 Trends in household growth are a key determinant of housing demand at the national and local levels. Household formations tend to accelerate as employment and income conditions improve, supporting further growth for both rental and owner-occupied units. The balance between housing supply and demand is an important driver of healthy trends in house price growth and housing affordability. Household growth, as the key demographic component of the LIHHM, contributes to the understanding of movements in housing demand at a fundamental level. Dating back to 2001 (the starting point for the LIHHM), the data show household growth impacting overall housing market health in the following ways: Above-average growth in the housing boom: Following a drop-off in in response to the 2001 recession and accompanying the jobless recovery, average household growth was stronger than the long-term median of 1.2 million per year. Positive economic growth, strong job gains, and double-digit house price gains led to a surge in household formations during the housing boom helping to create imbalances in the housing market. Bust, recession, and tepid recovery: Weak household growth following the Great Recession (well-below the long-term median) was indicative of still strained labor market conditions for many potential homebuyers, particularly those from the millennial generation. Even younger workers who had a job were more likely to be underemployed or to live with others, rather than create new households. Recent growth and looking ahead: Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2014, the cumulative boost from stronger job growth over the prior two years, particularly for the age cohort, and the pent-up demand to form households resulted in a sizable jump in national household formations. The recent economic, jobs and wage data do not support the surprising 2015 Q4 decline. Consequently, we expect household h formations to accelerate again soon, boosting housing demand d and pushing up the LIHHM. Household Growth* Change, year to o year, Millions Long-term median * 4-quarter change in the number of U.S. households Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Nationwide Economics Page 5
6 Since the LIHHM scores in many MSAs have remained positive over the last year, half of the LIHHM rankings have not changed reflective of continued health in local housing markets The best measure of the near-term health of housing markets is the current LIHHM (page 3), but looking at movements in the LIHHM over the course of a year can provide useful information, as well. Roughly a quarter of MSAs demonstrated improvement in their LIHHM performance rankings over the past year, but only four local markets had larger increases. Another quarter of MSAs posted declines in their rankings during The majority of the MSAs that decreased, however, fell only slightly there were eight MSAs that declined more sharply, led by several MSAs in Texas. Current LIHHM 4Q change +3 INCREASED UNCHANGED -3 DECREASED Largest Increase Largest Decrease Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area 1 Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH 2 Lima OH 3 Lansing-East Lansing MI 4 Glens Falls NY 5 Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA 6 Dubuque IA 7 Fairbanks AK 8 Roanoke VA 9 Columbus IN 10 Oshkosh-Neenah WI 400 Victoria TX 399 San Angelo TX 398 Grand Junction CO 397 Laredo TX 396 Williamsport PA 395 Farmington NM 394 Buffalo-Niagara Falls NY 393 Asheville NC 392 Boulder CO 391 Santa Fe NM Change in performance ranking; Data as of 2015 Q4 Nationwide Economics Page 6
7 Appendix Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM) Nationwide s LIHHM is a data-driven view of the near-term performance of housing markets based upon current health indicators for the national housing market and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs*) and divisions across the country. For each MSA, the LIHHM uses local-level data to incorporate the idiosyncratic characteristics of regional housing markets. The focus of the LIHHM is on the entire housing market s health, rather than a projection of house prices or home sales. Nationwide Economics LIHHM methodology The LIHHM is calculated using a number of variables that describe many of the drivers of the housing market for each MSA. In order to provide the best indicator of housing health, the included variables and corresponding weights for each provide the optimal leading perspective on future housing markets for each MSA. The drivers can be grouped into the following categories: 1. Employment 2. Demographics 3. Mortgage Market 4. House Prices As an illustration, if job growth increases in an MSA, then the resulting rise in incomes creates additional housing demand. Consumers have a greater ability to earn and save for home purchases, increasing sales and pushing up house prices. The LIHHM measures the movements in the included employment, demographic, mortgage market, and house price variables versus the long-term trends within each MSA. ThesedriversareusedtoderiveanoverallLIHHMscoreonascalefrom75to125 centered around a neutral value of 100. These values are placed into performance rankings to allow for better comparisons across MSAs. These performance rankings are the key metric in comparing the MSAs both to each other and across time. Raw LIHHM values are used for calculation purposes only and will only be shown on the national level as the national score is standalone and is not compared to other areas. * MSA: Geographical region with high population density and close economic ties throughout the nearby area, capturing 85-90% of the U.S. population Nationwide Economics Page 7
8 Authored by Nationwide Economics DAVID BERSON, PhD Senior Vice President, Chief Economist David holds a doctorate in Economics and a master s degree in Public Policy from the University of Michigan. Prior to Nationwide, David served as Chief Economist, Strategist and Head of Risk Analytics for The PMI Group, Inc., and Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. David has also served as Chief Financial Economist at Wharton Econometrics and visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. His government experience has included roles with the President s Council of Economic Advisors, U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of Special Trade Representative. He is a past President of the National Association for Business Economics. BRYAN JORDAN, CFA Deputy Chief Economist Bryan is a frequent author and knowledgeable source on economic topics, and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Bryan holds degrees in Economics and Political Science from Miami University and has earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He currently serves as Chairman of the Ohio Council on Economic Education and is a member of the Ohio Governor s Council of Economic Advisors, the National Association for Business Economics, and the Bloomberg monthly economic forecasting panel. BEN AYERS, MS Senior Economist Ben authors periodic economic analyses from the Nationwide Economics team, as well as commentary on key economic topics. Ben is also responsible for understanding and analyzing the enterprise business drivers to assist the strategic planning process. He holds a Master of Science in Economics from the Ohio State University, specializing in applied economic analysis, and a BSBA from the Fisher College of Business at the Ohio State University, with a focus on economics and international business. Additional contributors: Chrissy Charters, Ankit Gupta, Daniel Hadden, Steve Hall, and Matt Workman The information in this report is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature and not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account any specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. The economic and market forecasts reflect our opinion as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they will not reflect actual performance. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Nationwide, the Nationwide N and Eagle and Nationwide is on your side are service marks of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company. NFM-13575AO.2 Nationwide Economics Page 8
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