4.0 Retail Market: Demand Analysis

Transcription

1 4.1 Strathcona County Demographic Overview 4.2 Strathcona County: Projected Population 4.3 Strathcona County Demographics: Household Composition 4.4 Strathcona County Demographics: Age & Gender Characteristics 4.5 Strathcona County Demographics: Household Characteristics 4.6 Strathcona County Demographics: Household Income 4.7 Strathcona County Demographics: Per Capita Income 4.8 Strathcona County Demographics: Per Capita Retail Spending 4.9 Strathcona County Total Retail Spending 4.10 Existing Retail Sales Performance 4.11 Future Retail Sales Performance 4.12 Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand 4.13 Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County Incremental Retail Floorspace Demand 4.16 Strathcona County Inflow Analysis 4.17 West Inflow Estimate 4.18 East Inflow Estimate 4.19 Strathcona County Inflow: Baseline Capture 4.20 Strathcona County Inflow: High Capture 4.21 Total Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + Baseline Capture Inflow 4.22 Total Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + High Capture Inflow 4.23 Total Incremental Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + Baseline Capture Inflow 4.24 Total Incremental Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + High Capture Inflow Strathcona County Retail Market Context Market Supply What is the total retail market supply by merchandise category? Market Demand What is the total retail market demand by merchandise category? Strathcona County Retail Market Supply/Demand Gap? Supply-Side Retail Market Voids What retail supply is missing in Strathcona County? Retail Land Use Allocation? Demand-Side Retail Market Voids What retail functions are desired in Strathcona County? 39

2 4.1 Strathcona County Demographic Overview The following section outlines the Strathcona County Retail Trade area for the purposes of identifying total market demand for retail goods in the County. The purpose of this analysis is in determining the demographic make-up and retail spending patterns of residents shopping within the County. This includes assessing both Strathcona County residents as well as some degree of inflow. 40

3 4.2 Strathcona County: Projected Population The table to the right outline the projected Strathcona County household and population projections. In 2013 Strathcona County had approximately 98,000 residents and 37,000 households. Population growth across Strathcona County is expected to grow at 1.5% with an anticipated household growth rate of around 1.8% (a figure reflecting shrinking household sizes). Strathcona County demonstrates a population growth rate slightly higher than the City of Edmonton average which is around 1.4%. Current and projected growth rates will increase the Strathcona County population to over 130,000 by Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB Population* 2013 Estimate 98, , Estimate 101, , Estimate 103, , Estimate 106, , Estimate 109, , Estimate 112, , Estimate 115,903 1,025, Estimate 119,670 1,054, Estimate 123,559 1,084, Estimate 127,576 1,115, Estimate 131,722 1,146,594 Annual Growth 1.50% 1.39% * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB Households* 2013 Estimate 37, , Estimate 38, , Estimate 40, , Estimate 41, , Estimate 42, , Estimate 44, , Estimate 45, , Estimate 47, , Estimate 49, , Estimate 51, , Estimate 52, ,839 Annual Growth 1.77% 1.77% * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections 41

4 4.3 Strathcona County Demographics: Household Composition Key household composition for Strathcona County and Edmonton is outlined in the table below. Strathcona County features slightly larger households and a significantly higher proportion of married households than the City of Edmonton average. Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB SC v Edmonton Household Composition* Total Households 37, ,412 Average Household Size Family Households Average Persons Per Family Average Children Per Family Marital Status (Population 15+) Single (never married) 23% 32% 0.73 Married (not separated)] 59% 45% 1.31 Widowed 4% 5% 0.82 Divorced 5% 7% 0.73 Separated (legally married) 2% 3% 0.76 * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections 42

5 4.4 Strathcona County Demographics: Age & Gender Characteristics The table to the right illustrates the age and gender breakdown of Strathcona County residents. Within Strathcona County there is a high representation of children under the age of 19 and adults between There is a low representation of both males and females in the age range as well as those over the age of 70. Median age in Strathcona is greater than the City of Edmonton by three years. Age Profile* Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB SC v Edmonton Age Breakdown Age 0 to 9 (Male) 6% 6% 1.07 Age 0 to 9 (Female) 6% 5% 1.14 Age 10 to 19 (Male) 7% 5% 1.31 Age 10 to 19 (Female) 6% 5% 1.25 Age 20 to 29 (Male) 6% 9% 0.65 Age 20 to 29 (Female) 6% 9% 0.65 Age 30 to 39 (Male) 7% 8% 0.81 Age 30 to 39 (Female) 7% 8% 0.90 Age 40 to 49 (Male) 8% 7% 1.10 Age 40 to 49 (Female) 8% 7% 1.21 Age 50 to 59 (Male) 8% 7% 1.14 Age 50 to 59 (Female) 7% 7% 1.11 Age 60 to 69 (Male) 5% 4% 1.29 Age 60 to 69 (Female) 5% 4% 1.26 Age 70 to 79 (Male) 3% 2% 1.13 Age 70 to 79 (Female) 2% 3% 0.87 Age 80+ (Male) 1% 1% 0.64 Age 80+ (Female) 1% 2% 0.62 Population By Sex Male Population 50% 51% 0.99 Female Population 50% 49% 1.01 Median Age Male Female Male & Female * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections 43

6 4.5 Strathcona County Demographics: Household Characteristics The Tables below outline the educational profile and labor force composition of Strathcona County residents. Strathcona County demonstrates a similar educational profile to the City of Edmonton- however residents of Strathcona are marginally more likely to have completed some form of education. A third of Strathcona County residents are employed in Business, Finance & Management. Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB SC v Edm onton Education Profile* Educational Attainment (15+) No certifcate, dipolma or degree 16% 19% 0.82 Highschool certificate or equivalent 25% 24% 1.02 Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 11% 10% 1.15 College, CEGEP or other non university certficate 20% 17% 1.16 University certificate or diploma below bachelor 5% 5% 0.94 University certificate or degree 24% 25% 0.97 * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB SC v Edmonton Labor Force Composition* Employment by Occupation Business, finance & management 33% 28% 1.17 Natural & applied sciences, health, education, government, culture, recreation 23% 25% 0.92 Sales and service 21% 24% 0.87 Primary industry and trades 23% 22% 1.04 Occupation - Not applicable 0% 1% 0.45 * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections 44

7 4.6 Strathcona County Demographics: Household Income Average household income across Strathcona County in 2013 was almost $143,000. This is 50% higher than the City of Edmonton average. Household income growth is anticipated to be just over 3% per annum. Based on this growth, average household incomes are forecasted to grow to $200,000 by 2023 and almost $270,000 by Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB Household Income* 2013 Estimate $ 142,824 95, Estimate $ 155, , Estimate $ 167, , Estimate $ 177, , Estimate $ 188, , Estimate $ 200, , Estimate $ 212, , Estimate $ 225, , Estimate $ 239, , Estimate $ 253, , Estimate $ 269, ,937 SC v Edmonton $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 Annual Growth 3.08% 3.09% 1.00 * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB SC v Edmonton Households by Income* Less than $20,000 3% 13% 0.29 $20,000-39,999 5% 14% 0.38 $40,000-59,999 8% 15% 0.58 $60,000-79,999 10% 14% 0.72 $80,000-99,999 12% 12% 1.02 $100,000 and over 62% 35% 1.80 Median Household Income $113,044 $72, * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections 45

8 4.7 Strathcona County Demographics: Per Capita Income Per capita income in 2013 was slightly over $52,000 per annum across Strathcona County. This is 37% higher than the City of Edmonton average. Annual growth is forecasted at 3.76%, with per capita income forecast to $76,000 by 2023 rising to $102,000 in Strathcona County (SM), AB Edmonton (CY), AB Per Capita Income* 2013 Estimate $ 52,053 37, Estimate $ 57,419 41, Estimate $ 62,411 45, Estimate $ 66,779 48, Estimate $ 71,386 51, Estimate $ 76,311 55, Estimate $ 80,958 58, Estimate $ 85,889 62, Estimate $ 91,119 66, Estimate $ 96,668 70, Estimate $ 102,556 74,458 SC v Edmonton $ 1.37 $ 1.37 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 $ 1.38 Annual Growth 3.76% 3.73% 1.01 * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections 46

9 4.8 Strathcona County Demographics: Per Capita Retail Spending Per capita retail spending throughout Strathcona County is broken down in the accompanying table demonstrating how Strathcona County residents allocate their spending by retail goods and services 1. Total per capita retail spending: $13,651 per annum (31% higher than City of Edmonton average) o Convenience spending: $4,982 per annum (27% higher than City of Edmonton average) o Comparison spending: $6,849 per annum (36% higher than City of Edmonton average) o o Food & Beverage spending: $1,040 per annum (16% higher than City of Edmonton average) Leisure & Entertainment spending: $781 per annum (31% higher than City of Edmonton average) 1 Entertainment spending includes alcohol away from home and is therefore merged with Food & Beverage during analysis stage. Trade Area Per Capita Expenditures* Retail Categories Strathcona County Edmonton (CY), AB SC v Edmonton Convenience $ 4,982 $ 3, Grocery & Specialty Food $ 3,282 $ 2, Pharmacy $ 423 $ Alcohol & Tobacco $ 818 $ Services $ 458 $ Comparison $ 6,849 $ 5, Apparel $ 1,319 $ 1, Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories $ 420 $ Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty $ 752 $ Jewelry, Watches & Accessories $ 151 $ Home Improvement $ 995 $ Home Furnishings & Accessories $ 1,173 $ Electronics & Appliances $ 1,024 $ Toys, Hobbies & Pets $ 339 $ Sports & Recreational Goods $ 342 $ Multimedia, Books & Music $ 333 $ Food & Beverage $ 1,040 $ Casual / Sit Down Restaurants $ 1,040 $ Leisure & Entertainment $ 781 $ Entertainment $ 425 $ Leisure $ 356 $ Total Per Capita Retail Expenditures $ 13,651 $ 10, * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections, On-Site Based on Local Trade Area Spend Profile 47

10 4.9 Strathcona County Total Retail Spending Based on projected population and retail expenditure growth, total retail spending is expected to grow from $1.34 billion in 2013 to just over $3.8 billion in 2033 (in nominal dollars). Trade Area Total Expenditures* Strathcona County (SM), AB Strathcona County (SM), AB Strathcona County (SM), AB Strathcona County (SM), AB Strathcona County (SM), AB Retail Categories Convenience $ 489,358,974 $ 602,683,482 $ 865,551,923 $ 1,018,537,183 $ 1,410,406,866 Grocery & Specialty Food $ 322,438,046 $ 397,107,430 $ 570,311,133 $ 671,112,939 $ 929,315,406 Pharmacy $ 41,537,164 $ 51,156,235 $ 73,468,709 $ 86,454,215 $ 119,716,414 Alcohol & Tobacco $ 80,388,470 $ 99,004,628 $ 142,186,817 $ 167,318,166 $ 231,691,776 Services $ 44,995,294 $ 55,415,190 $ 79,585,264 $ 93,651,864 $ 129,683,269 Comparison $ 672,745,693 $ 828,538,432 $ 1,189,916,522 $ 1,400,232,835 $ 1,938,955,235 Apparel $ 129,582,405 $ 159,590,769 $ 229,198,412 $ 269,708,956 $ 373,476,167 Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories $ 41,244,306 $ 50,795,558 $ 72,950,718 $ 85,844,669 $ 118,872,352 Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty $ 73,886,807 $ 90,997,326 $ 130,687,024 $ 153,785,798 $ 212,952,996 Jewelry, Watches & Accessories $ 14,847,615 $ 18,285,988 $ 26,261,666 $ 30,903,383 $ 42,793,081 Home Improvement $ 97,704,924 $ 120,331,182 $ 172,815,233 $ 203,360,117 $ 281,600,426 Home Furnishings & Accessories $ 115,202,776 $ 141,881,142 $ 203,764,495 $ 239,779,624 $ 332,031,892 Electronics & Appliances $ 100,614,212 $ 123,914,196 $ 177,961,025 $ 209,415,422 $ 289,985,436 Toys, Hobbies & Pets $ 33,304,588 $ 41,017,180 $ 58,907,370 $ 69,319,177 $ 95,988,879 Sports & Recreational Goods $ 33,625,369 $ 41,412,247 $ 59,474,750 $ 69,986,841 $ 96,913,419 Multimedia, Books & Music $ 32,732,691 $ 40,312,844 $ 57,895,829 $ 68,128,847 $ 94,340,585 Food & Beverage $ 102,129,257 $ 125,780,091 $ 180,640,756 $ 212,568,792 $ 294,352,026 Casual / Sit Down Restaurants $ 102,129,257 $ 125,780,091 $ 180,640,756 $ 212,568,792 $ 294,352,026 Leisure & Entertainment 76,740,720 94,512, ,734, ,725, ,178,407 Entertainment $ 41,768,587 $ 51,441,250 $ 73,878,038 $ 86,935,892 $ 120,383,410 Leisure $ 34,972,133 $ 43,070,891 $ 61,856,834 $ 72,789,955 $ 100,794,997 Total Retail Expenditures $ 1,340,974,644 $ 1,651,514,147 $ 2,371,844,073 $ 2,791,064,657 $ 3,864,892,533 * Based on Environics Canadian 2013 Estimates / 2033 Projections

11 4.10 Existing Retail Sales Performance In order to determine existing floorspace demand, a sales performance figure is attributed to each retail merchandise category, which is outlined in the table to the right. Sales performance estimates are based on: Local market conditions Local market benchmarks; and Anticipated required performance by merchandise category and retail formats (based on an understanding of conservative gross retail occupancy costs by merchandise category for each format). Based on a weighted average of existing supply sales performance estimates in Strathcona County, the following estimates have been deduced: Convenience: $494/sf /annum Comparison: $451 /sf /annum Food & Beverage: $461 /sf /annum Leisure & Entertainment: $236 /sf /annum Community / Power Centres Neighborhood Centres Ancillary Retail Retail Categories* % of Existing Supply % of Existing Supply % of Existing Supply % of Existing Supply Weighted Average of Existing SC Retail Convenience $ 453 $ 380 $ % 33% 12% 100% $ 422 Grocery & Specialty Food $ 455 $ 386 $ % 35% 4% 100% $ 424 Pharmacy $ 529 $ 450 $ % 30% 10% 100% $ 488 Alcohol & Tobacco $ 545 $ 463 $ % 27% 21% 100% $ 486 Services $ 350 $ 298 $ % 30% 28% 100% $ 303 Comparison $ 415 $ 367 $ % 21% 13% 100% $ 385 Apparel $ 315 $ 268 $ % 15% 6% 100% $ 303 Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories $ 393 $ 334 $ % 24% 20% 100% $ 353 Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty $ 461 $ 392 $ % 28% 34% 100% $ 391 Jewelry, Watches & Accessories $ 410 $ 349 $ % 17% 0% 100% $ 399 Home Improvement $ 417 $ 355 $ % 13% 10% 100% $ 396 Home Furnishings & Accessories $ 486 $ 413 $ % 23% 13% 100% $ 448 Electronics & Appliances $ 458 $ 389 $ % 15% 16% 100% $ 424 Toys, Hobbies & Pets $ 440 $ 374 $ % 21% 11% 100% $ 411 Sports & Recreational Goods $ 443 $ 377 $ % 47% 6% 100% $ 403 Multimedia, Books & Music $ 485 $ 412 $ % 6% 16% 100% $ 455 Food & Beverage $ 485 $ 412 $ % 27% 46% 100% $ 394 Casual / Sit Down Restaurants $ 485 $ 412 $ % 27% 46% 100% $ 394 Entertainment & Leisure $ 258 $ 219 $ 84 65% 1% 33% 100% $ 210 Entertainment & Leisure $ 248 $ 211 $ % 1% 33% 100% $ 221 All Categories $ 421 $ 379 $ % 24% 18% 100% $ 380 * Based on TCI database information & local market comparables. 49

12 4.11 Future Retail Sales Performance In order to determine future floorspace demand, a sales performance figure is attributed to each retail merchandise category, which is outlined in the table to the right. These sales performance estimates are also based on local market conditions but have been altered to anticipate required performance by merchandise category and retail formats of newer Class B & Class A retail developments (netting out for lower quality community, neighborhood and ancillary retail). As such, these estimates are based on an understanding of conservative gross retail occupancy costs by merchandise category for each retail format for future Strathcona County floorspace. These performance rates increase at the same rate as spending, and therefore assuming that Strathcona County retail businesses retain their regional competitive positioning over time, sales performance is expected to achieve between: $350 - $545 per sf for Convenience $315 - $486 per sf for Comparison $485 per sf for Food & Beverage $248 per sf for Entertainment & Leisure Retail Categories* Convenience $ 460 $ 556 $ 674 $ 816 $ 988 Grocery & Specialty Food $ 455 $ 550 $ 666 $ 807 $ 977 Pharmacy $ 529 $ 641 $ 776 $ 940 $ 1,138 Alcohol & Tobacco $ 545 $ 659 $ 799 $ 967 $ 1,171 Services $ 350 $ 424 $ 514 $ 622 $ 753 Comparison $ 419 $ 508 $ 615 $ 744 $ 901 Apparel $ 411 $ 497 $ 602 $ 729 $ 882 Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories $ 315 $ 382 $ 462 $ 560 $ 678 Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty $ 393 $ 476 $ 576 $ 697 $ 844 Jewelry, Watches & Accessories $ 461 $ 558 $ 676 $ 819 $ 991 Home Improvement $ 410 $ 497 $ 601 $ 728 $ 881 Home Furnishings & Accessories $ 417 $ 505 $ 612 $ 741 $ 897 Electronics & Appliances $ 486 $ 589 $ 713 $ 863 $ 1,045 Toys, Hobbies & Pets $ 458 $ 554 $ 671 $ 812 $ 984 Sports & Recreational Goods $ 440 $ 533 $ 646 $ 782 $ 947 Multimedia, Books & Music $ 443 $ 537 $ 650 $ 787 $ 953 Food & Beverage $ 485 $ 587 $ 711 $ 860 $ 1,042 Casual / Sit Down Restaurants $ 485 $ 587 $ 711 $ 860 $ 1,042 Entertainment & Leisure $ 248 $ 300 $ 364 $ 440 $ 533 Entertainment & Leisure $ 248 $ 300 $ 364 $ 440 $ 533 All Categories $ 398 $ 460 $ 561 $ 683 $ 833 * Based on TCI database information & local market comparables. 50

13 4.12 Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand The table below illustrates the retail floorspace demand for Strathcona County from 2013 through to Overall retail floorspace demand is expected to grow from 3.5 million sf to 4.6 million sf over the next 20 years. Retail Floorspace Demand Retail Categories SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % Convenience 1,158,999 33% 1,234,603 33% 1,310,858 33% 1,412,065 33% 1,521,699 33% Grocery & Specialty Food 760,003 21% 810,415 21% 861,260 21% 928,744 22% 1,001,846 22% Pharmacy 85,078 2% 90,655 2% 96,280 2% 103,746 2% 111,833 2% Alcohol & Tobacco 165,577 5% 176,066 5% 186,645 5% 200,686 5% 215,896 5% Services 148,342 4% 157,468 4% 166,673 4% 178,890 4% 192,125 4% Comparison 1,747,544 49% 1,862,026 49% 1,977,492 49% 2,130,742 49% 2,296,751 49% Apparel 427,771 12% 450,204 12% 472,830 12% 502,860 12% 535,390 12% Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 116,716 3% 126,007 3% 135,379 3% 147,817 3% 161,290 3% Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 188,760 5% 202,126 5% 215,608 5% 233,501 5% 252,884 5% Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 37,172 1% 39,461 1% 41,768 1% 44,831 1% 48,149 1% Home Improvement 246,684 7% 263,615 7% 280,692 7% 303,357 7% 327,908 7% Home Furnishings & Accessories 256,958 7% 276,575 7% 296,360 7% 322,620 7% 351,066 8% Electronics & Appliances 237,052 7% 251,761 7% 266,595 7% 286,285 7% 307,613 7% Toys, Hobbies & Pets 80,995 2% 86,167 2% 91,383 2% 98,305 2% 105,805 2% Sports & Recreational Goods 83,477 2% 88,903 2% 94,376 2% 101,640 2% 109,508 2% Multimedia, Books & Music 71,958 2% 77,207 2% 82,500 2% 89,526 2% 97,137 2% Food & Beverage 259,354 7% 274,330 7% 289,435 7% 309,483 7% 331,200 7% Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 259,354 7% 274,330 7% 289,435 7% 309,483 7% 331,200 7% Entertainment & Leisure 385,465 11% 407,445 11% 429,613 11% 459,037 11% 490,909 11% Entertainment & Leisure 188,880 5% 200,843 5% 212,909 5% 228,923 5% 246,271 5% Total Retail Floorspace 3,551, % 3,778, % 4,007, % 4,311, % 4,640, % 51

14 4.13 Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand: 2013 The graph below illustrates retail floorspace demand by merchandise category for This demand is allocated into 800,000 sf of Convenience (23%); 2 million sf of Comparison (59%); 260,000 sf of Food & Beverage (8%) and 190,000 sf of Leisure & Entertainment retail (9%). 52

15 4.14 Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand: 2033 The graph below illustrates retail floorspace demand by merchandise category for This demand is allocated into 1.5 million sf of Convenience (33%); 2.3 million sf of Comparison (49%); 330,000 sf of Food & Beverage (7%) and 250,000 sf of Leisure & Entertainment retail (11%). 53

16 4.15 Strathcona County Total Retail Floorspace Demand: 2033 The table below illustrates the incremental retail floorspace demand for Strathcona County over the next 2 decades. Beginning in 2013, it is estimated that the annual incremental demand of Strathcona County residents is roughly 46,000 sf of additional retail floorspace per annum. With annual floorspace demand increasing over time as the population continues to grow, annual demand towards 2033 is expected to reach over 68,000 sf per annum. Total incremental demand by 2033 is forecasted at just over 1.0 million sf of additional retail floorspace. Retail Floorspace Demand Retail Categories SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA Convenience 30,112 60,445 90, , , , , , , ,700 Grocery & Specialty Food 20,078 40,303 60,319 80, , , , , , ,843 Pharmacy 2,221 4,459 6,673 8,908 11,202 14,117 17,127 20,234 23,443 26,755 Alcohol & Tobacco 4,178 8,386 12,550 16,754 21,068 26,550 32,210 38,054 44,089 50,319 Services 3,635 7,297 10,920 14,578 18,332 23,101 28,027 33,112 38,362 43,783 Comparison 45,596 91, , , , , , , , ,207 Apparel 8,935 17,935 26,842 35,832 45,059 56,783 68,889 81,388 94, ,619 Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 3,701 7,428 11,118 14,841 18,663 23,519 28,533 33,710 39,056 44,575 Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 5,324 10,686 15,994 21,351 26,848 33,834 41,047 48,495 56,185 64,124 Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 911 1,829 2,738 3,655 4,596 5,792 7,027 8,302 9,618 10,977 Home Improvement 6,743 13,536 20,259 27,044 34,008 42,857 51,994 61,427 71,167 81,224 Home Furnishings & Accessories 7,813 15,683 23,472 31,334 39,402 49,655 60,241 71,171 82,456 94,108 Electronics & Appliances 5,858 11,759 17,599 23,494 29,543 37,231 45,168 53,363 61,824 70,561 Toys, Hobbies & Pets 2,060 4,135 6,188 8,261 10,388 13,090 15,881 18,763 21,738 24,810 Sports & Recreational Goods 2,161 4,338 6,492 8,667 10,899 13,735 16,663 19,686 22,808 26,031 Multimedia, Books & Music 2,090 4,196 6,280 8,383 10,542 13,285 16,117 19,042 22,061 25,179 Food & Beverage 5,965 11,973 17,920 23,922 30,081 37,909 45,991 54,335 62,951 71,846 Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 5,965 11,973 17,920 23,922 30,081 37,909 45,991 54,335 62,951 71,846 Leisure & Entertainment 8,754 17,572 26,299 35,108 44,149 55,636 67,497 79,744 92, ,445 Entertainment 4,765 9,564 14,314 19,109 24,029 30,282 36,738 43,403 50,286 57,392 Leisure 3,989 8,008 11,985 16,000 20,119 25,354 30,760 36,341 42,103 48,053 Total Retail Floorspace 90, , , , , , , , ,338 1,089,198 Annual Floorspace Demand 45,529 44,920 44,620 45,791 46,993 59,806 61,750 63,757 65,830 67,969 54

17 4.16 Strathcona County Inflow Analysis In addition to sourcing business from Strathcona County residents, retail businesses within the County also source some business from outside of the County, both from the West & East. The West inflow area correspond to the neighbourhoods of the City of Edmonton that border Strathcona County. The East inflow area refers to rural Strathcona County outside Sherwood Park. This has been largely determined through discussions with local area retail centre owners and operators. This inflow is expected to continue into the future. While no primary research has been conducted on this level of inflow, the following pages provide a basis for which to estimate the general level of future inflow from the West and East. West Inflow Retail Inventory Strathcona County East Inflow 55

18 4.17 West Inflow Estimate The figure to the right illustrates the spatial relationship between the area of potential inflow from the City of Edmonton and Strathcona County in terms of: Population densities City of Edmonton 10 Transportation network; and Retail inventory Directly to the west of Strathcona County lies a large commercial/industrial belt, with low population densities. 4 Yellowhead Highway Coupled with retail projects located along the edge of this belt at interceptory locations to Edmontonians travelling eastbound, this separation acts as a barrier to potential inflow Baseline Road 7 Wye Rd 2 9 Whitemud Dr Highway 14 56

19 4.17 West Inflow Estimate Inflow from the West is largely expected to continue to come from communities in Northeast Edmonton, which are able to conveniently access Strathcona County via the Yellowhead Highway and are not subject to larger retail projects at interceptory locations. These populations and their retail spending potential has been factored into the inflow analysis. 4 West Inflow 10 Yellowhead Highway 8 11 Baseline Road Wye Rd 2 9 Whitemud Dr Highway 14 57

20 4.18 East Inflow Estimate Populations from the east, to which Strathcona County is interceptory, have also been factored into the inflow analysis. Accordingly, all populations within a one hour drive, that would flow through Strathcona County in reaching commercial areas of the City have been determined to be a source of potential inflow. West Inflow While residential densities are very low in this area of the greater region, they are still expected to contribute to Strathcona County retail demand today and into the future. East Inflow 58

21 4.19 Strathcona County Inflow: Baseline Capture According to a Baseline Capture of 20% of the total spending of both East & West inflow markets, an additional 340,000 sf of retail is warranted in 2013, climbing to just over 370,000 sf in This amounts to an overall inflow source of sales estimate at between 8% - 10%. Retail Floorspace Demand 2013 East 20% Capture 2013 West Inflow 20% Capture 2013 Assumption 2033 Inflow Assumption Retail Categories SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % Convenience 38,168 39% 86,982 36% 125,151 37% 10.8% 135,034 36% 8.9% Grocery & Specialty Food 24,875 25% 58,592 24% 83,467 24% 11.0% 90,304 24% 9.0% Pharmacy 3,653 4% 6,586 3% 10,239 3% 12.0% 10,824 3% 9.7% Alcohol & Tobacco 6,526 7% 12,319 5% 18,845 6% 11.4% 20,004 5% 9.3% Services 3,115 3% 9,485 4% 12,599 4% 8.5% 13,902 4% 7.2% Comparison 47,906 49% 116,712 48% 164,619 48% 9.4% 178,591 48% 7.8% Apparel 8,592 9% 23,866 10% 32,457 10% 7.6% 35,573 10% 6.6% Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 3,606 4% 9,720 4% 13,326 4% 11.4% 14,572 4% 9.0% Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 5,382 5% 14,725 6% 20,106 6% 10.7% 22,011 6% 8.7% Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 691 1% 2,673 1% 3,364 1% 9.0% 3,771 1% 7.8% Home Improvement 9,146 9% 15,508 6% 24,654 7% 10.0% 25,912 7% 7.9% Home Furnishings & Accessories 6,834 7% 19,143 8% 25,977 8% 10.1% 28,489 8% 8.1% Electronics & Appliances 6,321 6% 16,055 7% 22,375 7% 9.4% 24,355 7% 7.9% Toys, Hobbies & Pets 2,891 3% 5,076 2% 7,967 2% 9.8% 8,401 2% 7.9% Sports & Recreational Goods 2,398 2% 4,708 2% 7,106 2% 8.5% 7,569 2% 6.9% Multimedia, Books & Music 2,047 2% 5,239 2% 7,286 2% 10.1% 7,936 2% 8.2% Food & Beverage 5,782 6% 17,988 7% 23,770 7% 9.2% 26,268 7% 7.9% Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 5,782 6% 17,988 7% 23,770 7% 9.2% 26,268 7% 7.9% Leisure & Entertainment 6,278 6% 20,893 9% 27,171 8% 7.0% 30,166 8% 6.1% Entertainment 3,887 4% 12,522 5% 16,409 5% 8.7% 18,177 5% 7.4% Leisure 2,391 2% 8,371 3% 10,762 3% 5.5% 11,989 3% 4.9% Total Retail Floorspace 98, % 242, % 340, % 9.6% 370, % 8.0% 59

22 4.20 Strathcona County Inflow: High Capture According to a High Capture of 40% of the total spending of both East & West inflow markets an additional 680,000 sf of retail is demanded in 2013, climbing to 740,000 sf in This amounts to an overall inflow source of sales estimate at between 15% - 20%. Retail Floorspace Demand 2013 East 40% Capture 2013 West 40% Capture 2013 Inflow Assumption 2033 Inflow Assumption Retail Categories SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % Convenience 76,337 39% 173,964 36% 250,301 37% 21.6% 270,068 36% 17.7% Grocery & Specialty Food 49,750 25% 117,185 24% 166,934 24% 22.0% 180,609 24% 18.0% Pharmacy 7,306 4% 13,173 3% 20,478 3% 24.1% 21,647 3% 19.4% Alcohol & Tobacco 13,052 7% 24,638 5% 37,690 6% 22.8% 40,008 5% 18.5% Services 6,229 3% 18,969 4% 25,199 4% 17.0% 27,805 4% 14.5% Comparison 95,813 49% 233,424 48% 329,237 48% 18.8% 357,182 48% 15.6% Apparel 17,183 9% 47,731 10% 64,915 10% 15.2% 71,147 10% 13.3% Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 7,212 4% 19,440 4% 26,652 4% 22.8% 29,144 4% 18.1% Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 10,763 5% 29,449 6% 40,212 6% 21.3% 44,023 6% 17.4% Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 1,381 1% 5,347 1% 6,728 1% 18.1% 7,543 1% 15.7% Home Improvement 18,292 9% 31,015 6% 49,307 7% 20.0% 51,824 7% 15.8% Home Furnishings & Accessories 13,668 7% 38,287 8% 51,955 8% 20.2% 56,979 8% 16.2% Electronics & Appliances 12,641 6% 32,109 7% 44,750 7% 18.9% 48,710 7% 15.8% Toys, Hobbies & Pets 5,782 3% 10,152 2% 15,934 2% 19.7% 16,802 2% 15.9% Sports & Recreational Goods 4,796 2% 9,416 2% 14,211 2% 17.0% 15,138 2% 13.8% Multimedia, Books & Music 4,093 2% 10,479 2% 14,572 2% 20.3% 15,872 2% 16.3% Food & Beverage 11,563 6% 35,977 7% 47,540 7% 18.3% 52,536 7% 15.9% Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 11,563 6% 35,977 7% 47,540 7% 18.3% 52,536 7% 15.9% Leisure & Entertainment 12,557 6% 41,786 9% 54,342 8% 14.1% 60,333 8% 12.3% Entertainment 7,775 4% 25,043 5% 32,818 5% 17.4% 36,355 5% 14.8% Leisure 4,782 2% 16,742 3% 21,524 3% 10.9% 23,978 3% 9.8% Total Retail Floorspace 196, % 485, % 681, % 19.2% 740, % 15.9% 60

23 4.21 Total Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + Baseline Capture Inflow The table below summarizes the retail floorspace demand for Strathcona County, including Baseline capture inflow assumptions, from 2013 through to Overall retail floorspace demand is expected to grow from 3.8 million sf to 5.0 million sf over the next 20 years. Retail Floorspace Demand Retail Categories SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % Convenience 1,266,271 33% 1,344,517 33% 1,421,679 33% 1,525,204 33% 1,637,442 33% Grocery & Specialty Food 831,546 22% 883,783 22% 935,278 22% 1,004,359 22% 1,079,249 22% Pharmacy 93,854 2% 99,590 2% 105,249 2% 112,857 2% 121,110 2% Alcohol & Tobacco 181,730 5% 192,532 5% 203,188 5% 217,509 5% 233,042 5% Services 159,141 4% 168,613 4% 177,965 4% 190,480 4% 204,041 4% Comparison 1,888,646 49% 2,006,852 49% 2,123,687 49% 2,280,191 49% 2,449,829 49% Apparel 455,592 12% 478,852 12% 501,813 12% 532,560 12% 565,881 11% Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 128,138 3% 137,761 3% 147,264 3% 159,989 3% 173,781 4% Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 205,994 5% 219,866 5% 233,551 5% 251,883 5% 271,751 5% Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 40,056 1% 42,451 1% 44,809 1% 47,964 1% 51,382 1% Home Improvement 267,816 7% 285,091 7% 302,222 7% 325,198 7% 350,119 7% Home Furnishings & Accessories 279,225 7% 299,508 7% 319,565 7% 346,403 7% 375,486 8% Electronics & Appliances 256,231 7% 271,466 7% 286,502 7% 306,650 7% 328,489 7% Toys, Hobbies & Pets 87,824 2% 93,113 2% 98,352 2% 105,381 2% 113,005 2% Sports & Recreational Goods 89,568 2% 95,119 2% 100,625 2% 108,000 2% 115,996 2% Multimedia, Books & Music 78,204 2% 83,625 2% 88,985 2% 96,161 2% 103,939 2% Food & Beverage 279,728 7% 295,366 7% 310,755 7% 331,374 7% 353,716 7% Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 279,728 7% 295,366 7% 310,755 7% 331,374 7% 353,716 7% Leisure & Entertainment 408,754 11% 431,526 11% 454,045 11% 484,150 10% 516,766 10% Entertainment 202,944 5% 215,375 5% 227,646 5% 244,064 5% 261,852 5% Leisure 205,810 5% 216,150 5% 226,399 5% 240,087 5% 254,914 5% Total Retail Floorspace 3,843, % 4,078, % 4,310, % 4,620, % 4,957, % 61

24 4.22 Total Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + High Capture Inflow The table below summarizes the retail floorspace demand for Strathcona County, including High Capture inflow assumptions, from 2013 through to Overall retail floorspace demand is expected to grow from 4.1 million sf to 5.3 million sf over the next 20 years. Retail Floorspace Demand Retail Categories SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % SF GLA % Convenience 1,373,543 33% 1,454,431 33% 1,532,500 33% 1,638,343 33% 1,753,185 33% Grocery & Specialty Food 903,089 22% 957,151 22% 1,009,295 22% 1,079,974 22% 1,156,653 22% Pharmacy 102,631 2% 108,525 2% 114,217 2% 121,968 2% 130,388 2% Alcohol & Tobacco 197,882 5% 208,998 5% 219,731 5% 234,331 5% 250,188 5% Services 169,941 4% 179,757 4% 189,256 4% 202,069 4% 215,957 4% Comparison 2,029,747 49% 2,151,678 49% 2,269,882 49% 2,429,639 49% 2,602,907 49% Apparel 483,412 12% 507,500 12% 530,796 12% 562,260 11% 596,373 11% Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 139,560 3% 149,514 3% 159,149 3% 172,162 3% 186,271 4% Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 223,228 5% 237,606 5% 251,494 5% 270,265 5% 290,618 6% Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 42,939 1% 45,442 1% 47,850 1% 51,097 1% 54,615 1% Home Improvement 288,948 7% 306,566 7% 323,751 7% 347,040 7% 372,329 7% Home Furnishings & Accessories 301,491 7% 322,441 7% 342,769 7% 370,185 8% 399,905 8% Electronics & Appliances 275,410 7% 291,172 7% 306,408 7% 327,016 7% 349,365 7% Toys, Hobbies & Pets 94,653 2% 100,060 2% 105,321 2% 112,457 2% 120,206 2% Sports & Recreational Goods 95,658 2% 101,334 2% 106,875 2% 114,361 2% 122,484 2% Multimedia, Books & Music 84,449 2% 90,043 2% 95,469 2% 102,796 2% 110,741 2% Food & Beverage 300,102 7% 316,401 7% 332,075 7% 353,264 7% 376,231 7% Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 300,102 7% 316,401 7% 332,075 7% 353,264 7% 376,231 7% Leisure & Entertainment 432,044 10% 455,607 10% 478,477 10% 509,264 10% 542,623 10% Entertainment 217,009 5% 229,908 5% 242,383 5% 259,204 5% 277,432 5% Leisure 215,035 5% 225,699 5% 236,094 5% 250,060 5% 265,191 5% Total Retail Floorspace 4,135, % 4,378, % 4,612, % 4,930, % 5,274, % 62

25 4.23 Total Incremental Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + Baseline Capture Inflow The table below illustrates the incremental retail floorspace demand for Strathcona County, including Baseline Capture inflow assumptions, over the next 2 decades. By 2033, it is estimated that an additional 1.1 million sf will be in demand. Retail Floorspace Demand Retail Categories SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA Convenience 30,091 62,661 93, , , , , , , ,171 Grocery & Specialty Food 20,909 41,833 62,301 82, , , , , , ,703 Pharmacy 1,869 4,593 6,841 9,091 11,394 14,363 17,431 20,600 23,874 27,256 Alcohol & Tobacco 3,525 8,651 12,884 17,121 21,458 27,047 32,821 38,786 44,947 51,312 Services 3,789 7,584 11,299 15,018 18,824 23,709 28,755 33,965 39,345 44,900 Comparison 47,287 94, , , , , , , , ,183 Apparel 9,307 18,625 27,747 36,877 46,221 58,224 70,619 83,420 96, ,290 Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 3,850 7,705 11,480 15,258 19,126 24,093 29,223 34,522 39,993 45,643 Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 5,551 11,109 16,547 21,989 27,557 34,713 42,104 49,736 57,618 65,757 Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 959 1,919 2,857 3,794 4,753 5,985 7,257 8,570 9,926 11,326 Home Improvement 6,907 13,829 20,620 27,430 34,406 43,373 52,636 62,206 72,092 82,303 Home Furnishings & Accessories 8,113 16,239 24,202 32,177 40,340 50,817 61,636 72,809 84,347 96,261 Electronics & Appliances 6,097 12,200 18,174 24,152 30,271 38,136 46,259 54,648 63,311 72,258 Toys, Hobbies & Pets 2,116 4,235 6,313 8,395 10,528 13,271 16,105 19,033 22,058 25,182 Sports & Recreational Goods 2,219 4,444 6,626 8,815 11,058 13,936 16,909 19,980 23,152 26,428 Multimedia, Books & Music 2,169 4,341 6,468 8,600 10,781 13,582 16,476 19,463 22,549 25,735 Food & Beverage 6,261 12,524 18,646 24,766 31,027 39,076 47,388 55,972 64,835 73,988 Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 6,261 12,524 18,646 24,766 31,027 39,076 47,388 55,972 64,835 73,988 Leisure & Entertainment 9,107 18,231 27,172 36,125 45,291 57,044 69,180 81,712 94, ,012 Entertainment 4,974 9,954 14,829 19,708 24,701 31,111 37,729 44,564 51,621 58,907 Leisure 4,134 8,277 12,342 16,417 20,589 25,933 31,451 37,148 43,031 49,105 Total Retail Floorspace 92, , , , , , , , ,359 1,114,354 Annual Floorspace Demand 46,033 46,270 45,316 46,371 47,466 61,140 63,146 65,215 67,350 69,552 63

26 4.24 Total Incremental Floorspace Demand: Strathcona County + High Capture Inflow The table below illustrates the incremental retail floorspace demand for Strathcona County, including High Capture inflow assumptions, over the next 2 decades. By 2033, it is estimated that an additional 1.7 million sf will be demanded. Retail Floorspace Demand Retail Categories SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA SF GLA Convenience 30,071 64,877 96, , , , , , , ,643 Grocery & Specialty Food 21,739 43,362 64,283 85, , , , , , ,564 Pharmacy 1,516 4,728 7,009 9,274 11,587 14,610 17,735 20,966 24,306 27,757 Alcohol & Tobacco 2,872 8,916 13,218 17,489 21,849 27,544 33,432 39,517 45,806 52,305 Services 3,944 7,871 11,678 15,458 19,315 24,317 29,483 34,818 40,327 46,017 Comparison 48,977 97, , , , , , , , ,159 Apparel 9,679 19,315 28,653 37,922 47,384 59,664 72,350 85,452 98, ,961 Footwear, Luggage & Fashion Accessories 3,999 7,981 11,842 15,675 19,588 24,667 29,914 35,333 40,930 46,711 Cosmetics, Health, Bath & Beauty 5,779 11,531 17,101 22,627 28,266 35,593 43,161 50,978 59,052 67,390 Jewelry, Watches & Accessories 1,007 2,008 2,975 3,934 4,911 6,179 7,488 8,839 10,235 11,676 Home Improvement 7,071 14,122 20,981 27,816 34,804 43,889 53,279 62,985 73,016 83,382 Home Furnishings & Accessories 8,412 16,795 24,932 33,020 41,278 51,979 63,032 74,448 86,238 98,414 Electronics & Appliances 6,335 12,640 18,748 24,811 30,999 39,041 47,350 55,932 64,798 73,955 Toys, Hobbies & Pets 2,171 4,335 6,437 8,530 10,669 13,452 16,330 19,304 22,377 25,554 Sports & Recreational Goods 2,277 4,549 6,760 8,964 11,216 14,137 17,156 20,274 23,496 26,825 Multimedia, Books & Music 2,247 4,485 6,657 8,816 11,020 13,880 16,834 19,885 23,037 26,292 Food & Beverage 6,556 13,074 19,373 25,611 31,973 40,244 48,786 57,609 66,720 76,129 Casual / Sit Down Restaurants 6,556 13,074 19,373 25,611 31,973 40,244 48,786 57,609 66,720 76,129 Leisure & Entertainment 9,460 18,889 28,044 37,143 46,433 58,451 70,863 83,679 96, ,579 Entertainment 5,182 10,343 15,344 20,308 25,373 31,940 38,721 45,724 52,956 60,423 Leisure 4,278 8,547 12,700 16,835 21,060 26,512 32,142 37,955 43,958 50,156 Total Retail Floorspace 95, , , , , , , , ,380 1,139,510 Annual Floorspace Demand 46,537 47,620 46,012 46,952 47,939 62,474 64,541 66,673 68,870 71,136 64