City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Report Chapter 4 Demographics and Economic Conditions

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1 City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Report Chapter 4 Demographics and Economic Conditions 4.1 INTRODUCTION This section describes the demographic and economic characteristics of the city of West Sacramento. Since economics and demographics frequently go beyond city boundaries, this analysis uses the Sacramento region and Yolo County for a comparative analysis. These points of reference provide important comparisons and perspective to highlight important qualities of West Sacramento. Demographic information is used to identify trends and changes in the makeup, composition, and ultimately the demands of West Sacramento s future population. Market conditions in West Sacramento and the surrounding region are summarized, showing the economic strengths and potential areas of growth. This chapter is organized into the following sections: Introduction (Section 4.1) Historical Population Growth (Section 4.2) Population Characteristics (Section 4.3) Population Projections (Section 4.4) Employment Projections (Section 4.5) Economic Conditions (Section 4.6) 4.2 HISTORICAL POPULATION GROWTH Introduction This section summarizes historical population trends in the city of West Sacramento. Analyzing past trends can provide important insight about future population growth. Population statistics are from SACOG Population and Housing Estimates, the State of California Department of Finance Population Estimates, the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census, the year American Community Survey and 2007 California Department of Finance (DOF) estimates. Key Terms Census. The Periodic official tally of the population with details as to age, sex, occupation, etc. U.S. Federal censuses have been taken every 10 years starting in Regulatory Setting No unique regulatory requirements are noted. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

2 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN Major Findings The West Sacramento area experienced its most dramatic growth during the 1950s, as population more than doubled from about 11,900 to over 25,000. Since 2000 (2000 to 2015), the city s population grew by more than 62 percent, from 31,615 to 51,272. Overall, West Sacramento s population grew nearly five-fold since 1950 (11,906 residents in 1950 to 51,272 residents in 2015). Population growth in the city lagged behind Yolo County and the Sacramento-Yolo Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA) for the following time periods: , , and However, since 2000, the city s population grew faster than Yolo County and the Sacramento-Yolo CMSA (60.8 percent in the city, 22.6 percent in the county, and 5.7 percent in the Sacramento-Yolo CMSA). Southport is projected to include approximately 12,200 more housing units at buildout, suggesting that this area of West Sacramento will absorb a large portion of the city s future growth. Existing Conditions If a city is to effectively designate land use and set policies regarding housing and public facilities and services, it must first have a clear understanding of how the population has changed over time. The past can yield important information on trends affecting future growth. Table 4-1 shows how the city s population has grown since The numbers in Table 4-1 through 1997 are from the City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Document (June 2000). The estimates for and and 2015 are from the California Department of Finance. The 2000 figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau. The 2014 figures are from the SACOG Population and Housing Estimates. 4-2 BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

3 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Year TABLE 4-1 HISTORICAL POPULATION GROWTH City of West Sacramento 1950 to 2015 Annual Population Year Population Growth Annual Growth , , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Document, Department of Finance, Table 2: E-5 City/County Estimates U.S. Census. 4 SACOG Population and Housing Estimates Source: City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Document, 2000; 2000 U.S. Census; DOF, 2007; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. The West Sacramento area experienced its most dramatic growth during the 1950s, as the population more than doubled, averaging an annual growth rate of 11.0 percent. The area s population rose to almost 27,400 in 1970, and then declined to about 24,000 by It took until 1990, when the population reached 28,900, for the area to exceed its 1970 population. The U.S. Census Bureau reported a 2000 population of 31,615, an increase of 9.4 percent since Since 2000 (2000 to 2007), the city s population has increased by more than 62.2 percent to 51,272residents in BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

4 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN Population Growth Comparison within West Sacramento Table 4-2 provides a detailed look at the city s population growth from 1980 to 2000, separately for the area north of the Deep Water Ship Channel and Southport (the area south of the channel). TABLE 4-2 HISTORICAL POPULATION GROWTH Areas North of the Deep Water Ship Channel, Southport, and City of West Sacramento 1980 to 2013 Areas North of the Deep Southport West Sacramento Water Ship Channel Year Population Change Population Change Population Change , , , ,918 2,160 4,980 2,018 28,898 4, ,594 1,676 6,021 1,041 31,615 2, ,379 1,785 22,266 16,245 49,645 18,030 1 City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Document, & 2000 U.S. Census. Population in Southport equals population in Census Tract 103; Yolo County, California; population in the area north of the channel equals the difference between the city s population and Southport s population year American Community Survey. Population in Southport equals population in Census Tracts , , , and ; Yolo County, California; population in the area north of the channel equals the difference between the city s population and Southport s population. Source: City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Document, 2000; U.S. Census; DOF, 2007; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc.; year ACS The areas north of the Deep Water Ship Channel accounted for 55 percent of West Sacramento s population in 2013 (88 percent in 1980 and 83 percent in 1990); these areas are largely developed compared to the areas to the south. As shown in Table 4-2, population growth for the north area was roughly equal to population growth for the Southport area prior to Although less developed than the areas north of the Deep Water Channel, Southport is experiencing rapid growth. From 1980 to 2000, Southport s population more than doubled, from less than 3,000 to more than 6,000 residents. As of 2013, there has been a growth of 16,245 people in the Southport area. According to the Southport Framework Plan, Southport is projected to include approximately 16,000 housing units at buildout. 4-4 BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

5 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Population Growth Comparison against Yolo County and Sacramento-Yolo CMSA Until 2000, West Sacramento s population growth lagged behind other parts of Yolo County and the Sacramento-Yolo Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA). Table 4-3 shows historical population growth in West Sacramento, Yolo County, and the Sacramento-Yolo CMSA. Between 1970 and 1980, the city s population declined by 10.5 percent, but during the same period, population in the county and the Sacramento-Yolo CMSA increased significantly (23.5 percent in the county and 29.8 percent in the Sacramento-Yolo CMSA). This disproportionate pattern of growth continued till 2000; however, since 2000, the city s population has grown 60.8 percent, compared to 22.6 percent in the county and 5.6 percent in the Sacramento-Yolo CMSA. TABLE 4-3 HISTORICAL POPULATION GROWTH City of West Sacramento, Yolo County, and Sacramento-Yolo CMSA 1970 to 2007 Year West Sacramento Yolo County Sacramento CMSA 1 Population 2 % Change Population % Change Population % Change , , , , % 113, % 1,099, % , % 141, % 1,481, % , % 168, % 1,796, % , % 192, % 2,076, % 1 Includes El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, and Yolo Counties. 2 Information from Table U.S. Census year American Community Survey. Source: City of West Sacramento General Plan Background Document, 2000; 2000 U.S. Census; DOF, 2007; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. 4.3 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS Introduction This section summarizes and analyzes past and current demographic information. Analyzing demographic data yields important information about possible shifts in demand for city services. Also, it may be appropriate to change land use policy as; for example, families have more or less children. This section analyzes U.S. Census demographic data in the city to identify those trends and conditions that are important to West Sacramento s future. It should be noted that the Census demographic data is based on the latest available information, which is the 2010 Census and the 2013 American Community Survey Estimates. The City s population has increased from 31,615 in 2000 to 51,272 as of 2015 (California DoF), an over 50% increase. Much of the new housing that provided for that growth was in a considerably higher price range than that of BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

6 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN housing which existed in Average income and education level of the community has increased since Key Terms Race. For the purposes of the U.S. Census, Race is a self-identification data item in which respondents choose the race or races with which they most closely identify. In 1997, after a lengthy analysis and public comment period, the Federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) revised the standards for how the Federal government would collect and present data on race and ethnicity. These new guidelines revised some of the racial categories used in 1990 and preceding censuses and allowed respondents to report as many race categories as were necessary to identify themselves on the Census 2000 questionnaire. A substantial part of the growth in the other racial category, therefore, stems from the ability of individuals responding to the 2000 Census questionnaire to label themselves as biracial or multiracial. Hispanic or Latino is considered an ethnicity, not a race, by the Census Bureau. Real Income Growth. A comparison of income levels at two time periods when incomes have been adjusted to reflect the rate of inflation. Regulatory Setting No unique regulatory requirements are noted. Major Findings Between 2000 and 2010, the age distribution of city residents included a majority of residents being working age (18 to 59 years old), which is important from a labor force perspective. Nearly half (46.4 percent) of West Sacramento households in 2010 were married couples and 34.2 percent of households included children. The educational attainment of West Sacramento residents suggests a largely working class community, with a majority (75.9 percent) of the population having less than a bachelor s degree in Yolo County had only 62.2 percent of residents in this group. In 2000, Yolo County s median household income was 30 percent higher than the median household income in West Sacramento, which corresponds to the educational attainment of city versus county residents. As of 2013, West Sacramento has a higher median household income than Yolo County. West Sacramento experienced a 37.8 percent growth in real income from 2000 to 2013, while growth in real income for Yolo County was a mere 1.4 percent percent of residents in West Sacramento had a commute of less than 30 minutes in The average commute time for West Sacramento residents in 2013 was 22.6 and was 21.6 in Yolo County. Existing Conditions 4-6 BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

7 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Age Distribution Age structure is a particularly important planning consideration because different age segments of the population require different kinds of services. A younger population, for instance, will likely demand more opportunities for active recreation, whereas an older population will likely call for more passive recreational facilities. Different age groups also require different considerations when it comes to housing. A proportionally younger population will typically generate demand for more housing for firsttime buyers and larger units to accommodate families with children. Table 4-4 shows the age distribution of West Sacramento and Yolo County s population in 2000 and Age Group City of West Sacramento TABLE 4-4 AGE DISTRIBUTION City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 2000 and % of Total Population Population % of Total % Increase , % 13, % 38.6% , % 12, % 84.0% , % 16, % 59.8% 60+ 5, % 7, % 35.5% Total 31, % 48, % 54.7% Yolo County , % 45, % 7.4% , % 66, % 21.8% , % 59, % 18.0% , % 28, % 38.5% Total 168, % 200, % 19.1% Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. Table 4-4 indicates that West Sacramento had 58.9 percent of the total population falling into the range of 18 to 59 years old in 2010, which is important from a labor force perspective. West Sacramento experienced the most growth in the 35 to 59 year category (33.3 percent from 2000 to 2010), with the 0 to 17 year category experiencing the next highest growth. These growth trends are generally consistent with those in the county, although the year category grew the most (33.1 percent from 2000 to 2010). Racial Composition Table 4-5 shows the racial breakdown of the population for West Sacramento and Yolo County. As the table shows, West Sacramento s population is predominately white, accounting for 65.1 percent of the BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

8 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN total population in 2000 and 60.6 percent in The racial composition of the city s population is fairly consistent with the composition of the county s population in both 2000 and Growth rates are relatively consistent as well, with the exception of the African American category, which experienced growth of percent in the city but an increase of only 52.1percent in the county. As noted in the key terms section above, a substantial part of the growth in the other racial category stems from the ability of individuals responding to the 2000 Census questionnaire to label themselves as biracial or multiracial. Persons of Hispanic or Latino decent are included in the various racial categories identified in Table 4-5 because the Census Bureau considers Hispanic and Latino as an ethnicity, not a race. Consequently, a person of Hispanic or Latino descent could identify racially as White, Black or African American, Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander, or other. West Sacramento s Hispanic/Latino population experienced significant growth between 2000 and 2010, increasing approximately 61 percent between 2000 and 2010 and comprising nearly 31 percent of the city s total population in Yolo County also experienced significant growth in the number of Hispanic/Latino residents, increasing approximately 39.5 percent between 2000 and Hispanic/Latino residents in the county increased from 43,707 persons in 2000, comprising more than 25 percent of its total population, to 60,953persons in 2010, comprising more than 30 percent of its total population. Race City of West Sacramento TABLE 4-5 RACIAL COMPOSITION City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 2000 and % of Total Population Population % of Total % Increase White Alone 20, % 29, % 44.3% Black or African American % 2, % 189.0% Native American % % 44.7% Asian 2, % 5, % 128.8% Pacific Islander/Native % % 195.1% Hawaiian Other 5, % 6, % 32.7% Two or more races 2, % 3, % 71.4% Total 1 31, % 48, % 54.9% Yolo County White Alone 114, % 126, % 11.2% Black or African American 3, % 5, % 52.1% Native American 1, % 2, % 13.4% Asian 16, % 26, % 56.8% Pacific Islander/Native % % 79.5% Hawaiian Other 23, % 27, % 20.1% Two or more races 8, % 11, % 32.7% Total 2 168, % 200, % 19.1% 4-8 BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

9 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 1 Total population figures for 2000 and 2010 include 9,514 and 15,340 persons of Hispanic or Latino decent, respectively, which represents approximately a 61 percent increase from 2000 to Total population figures for 2000 and 2010 include 43,707 and 60,953 persons of Hispanic or Latino decent, respectively, which represents approximately a 39 percent increase from 2000 to Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. Household and Family Composition Table 4-6 shows a breakdown of family composition for West Sacramento and Yolo County according to figures from the 2000 and 2010 Census. The table shows a small increase in the proportion of married couple families with children and households headed by singles, but a small decrease in households headed by singles and the proportion of childless married couples stayed the same. In Yolo County, nonfamily households doubled. Compared to county figures for household compositions in 2010, West Sacramento has a higher proportion of single-headed households with and without children (20.6 percent compared to 16.1 percent in the county), and about an equal proportion of married families with and without children (46.4 percent compared to 46.2 percent in the county), and a lower proportion of non-family households (33.1 percent compared to 37.8 percent in the county). TABLE 4-6 FAMILY COMPOSITION City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 2000 and 2010 Family Type City of West Sacramento Married Couple with Children 22.2% 23.3% Married Couple without Children 23.1% 23.1% Single Male with Children 3.2% 2.8% Single Male without Children 2.7% 3.0% Single Female with Children 9.3% 8.1% Single Female without Children 6.0% 6.7% Non-Family Households 33.4% 33.1% Yolo County Married Couple with Children 33.6% 22.3% Married Couple without Children 29.9% 23.9% Single Male with Children 3.1% 2.3% Single Male without Children 2.5% 2.5% Single Female with Children 8.6% 6.3% Single Female without Children 5.5% 5.0% Non-Family Households 16.7% 37.8% Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. Place of Residence BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

10 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN Residential patterns provide a picture of the stability of the population and its ties to the city. Table 4-7 shows a comparison of population by place of residence from the year American Community Survey for West Sacramento and Yolo County. Compared to Yolo County s residential patterns, West Sacramento had a higher proportion of residents who lived in the same house from 2012 to 2013 (81.3 percent compared to 76.0 percent in the county). However, West Sacramento had a lower proportion of residents who lived in a country from 2012 to 2013 (0.3 percent compared to 1.5 percent in the county). TABLE 4-7 RESIDENTIAL PATTERNS City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 2013 Place of Residence One Year 2013 Prior City of West Sacramento Same House 81.3% Different House in Same County 10.1% Different County in California 7.4% Different State 0.9% Different Country 0.3% Yolo County Same House 76.0% Different House in Same County 12.8% Different County in California 8.1% Different State 1.6% Different Country 1.5% Source: year American Community Survey; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. Educational Attainment Table 4-8 presents the educational attainment of West Sacramento and Yolo County residents, ages 25 and older, in 2000 and This table suggests that West Sacramento is a largely working class community, with only 24.0percent of residents in 2000 having a bachelor s degree or higher (compared to 37.9 percent in Yolo County). The rate of growth between 2000 and 2013 in the number of residents with a bachelor s degree or higher was much faster in the city compared to the county BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

11 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Educational Attainment City of West Sacramento TABLE 4-8 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (PERSONS 25 AND OLDER) City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 2000 and % of 2013 Population Total Population % of Total % Increase Less than 9th Grade 2, % 3, % 9.8% 9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma 3, % 3, % 0.4% High School Graduate 5, % 7, % 30.3% Some College, No Degree 4, % 7, % 65.3% Associate Degree 1, % 2, % 139.7% Bachelor's Degree 1, % 5, % 279.7% Graduate or Professional Degree % 2, % 362.6% Total 19, % 31, % 64.2% Yolo County Less than 9th Grade 9, % 9, % 1.8% 9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma 9, % 8, % -9.2% High School Graduate 18, % 21, % 15.1% Some College, No Degree 18, % 24, % 28.1% Associate Degree 5, % 8, % 49.8% Bachelor's Degree 17, % 23, % 37.1% Graduate or Professional Degree 15, % 20, % 36.6% Total 95, % 117, % 23.2% Source: 2000 U.S. Census and year American Community Survey; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. Median Household Income Table 4-9 shows median household incomes for West Sacramento and Yolo County in 2000 and Real income growth (a comparison of income levels at two time periods when incomes have been adjusted to reflect the rate of inflation) among West Sacramento residents was substantial during the 2000s, with inflation-adjusted median household income levels rising 37.8 percent from 2000 to Yolo County as a whole stayed approximately the same, with median household income levels only rising 1.4 percent. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

12 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN TABLE 4-9 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 1990 and 2000 Place % Increase City of West Sacramento $42,909 $59, % Yolo County $55,153 $55, % figures adjusted to 2013 using the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Inflation Calculator. Source:2000 U.S. Census and year American Community Survey; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. Income levels for the city and county correspond to educational attainment, as previously discussed. The City of West Sacramento s income growth relates to higher education levels and growth in those levels. Travel Time to Work Table 4-10 shows the average amount of time city and county residents spent traveling to work in 2000 and Employees in the city and county spent about the same amount time traveling to work in 2000 and TABLE 4-10 AVERAGE TRAVEL TIMES TO WORK (MINUTES) City of West Sacramento, Yolo County, and SACOG Region 2000 and 2013 % Increase Place City of West Sacramento % Yolo County % Source: 2010 U.S. Census and 5-year American Community Survey; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. 4.4 POPULATION PROJECTIONS Introduction Population projections are essential to the planning process and form the basis for most planning decisions, yet projecting future growth is far from an exact science given the complex set of variables that can affect the rate of growth. Typically, projections are developed by taking past patterns and combining them with assumptions regarding the future to obtain an estimate of future growth rates. These projections serve to provide the City insight on the type and quantity of future growth as well as guidance regarding future planning activities; therefore, such planning activities can only be as effective as the ability of local officials to anticipate population growth. This section uses the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) Draft 2035 Projections (July 2015) to estimate future population, presented in five-year increments through 2030, in West Sacramento BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

13 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Key Terms Projection. An estimate of future setting based on extrapolations from past observations combined with assumptions regarding the future. Average Annual Growth Rate. The rate at which the population is increasing or decreasing in a given year expressed as a percentage of the size of the base population. It takes into consideration all the components of population growth, including births, deaths and migration. Regulatory Setting No unique regulatory requirements were noted. Major Findings According to SACOG, West Sacramento s population is projected to increase by 74 percent from 2014 to 2035, to more than 88,600residents by West Sacramento is projected to account for more than half (53 percent) of projected growth in Yolo County from 2014 to Existing Conditions While other sources (e.g., DOF and Woods and Poole Economics) provide population projections at the county level, SACOG is the only source of population projections for West Sacramento. Table 4-11 presents projected population estimates for West Sacramento and Yolo County through These projections are based on current SACOG population estimates (January 2014) and current SACOG projections (January 2015) for 2035; population estimates for the other time periods (e.g., 2025, and 2030) are derived by applying the average annual growth rate from 2007 to 2035 (2.2 percent in West Sacramento and 1.3 percent in Yolo County). SACOG population and employment projections have been based on future housing estimates derived by input from local jurisdictions regarding general plan designations and planned and proposed projects. Discussions with SACOG staff indicate that the 2035 projections are based on future land use estimates that incorporate SACOG Blueprint principles as each jurisdiction has adopted them. The Blueprint project (described in more detail in Chapter 2) brought together local officials, civic groups, environmental advocates, the development community, business leaders, and the public to create a plan for how the region should grow over the next 50 years. The project established several smart growth principles, such as providing housing choice and diversity, using existing assets, creating compact development, conserving natural resources, providing quality design, maximizing mixed use developments, and providing transportation choices, for long-term growth in the region. West Sacramento is projected to grow to 88,659 residents by 2035, a 74 percent increase over the current (2014) population. This amounts to more than double Yolo County s population growth (34 percent) in the same period. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

14 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN TABLE 4-11 POPULATION PROJECTIONS City of West Sacramento and Yolo County Place City of West Sacramento 50,836 62,346 66,061 73,529 88,659 Yolo County 206, , , , ,139 1 SACOG 2014 Source: DOF, 2007; SACOG, 2007; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. 4.5 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Introduction Employment projections are an important indicator of the strength of different segments of the local economy. They also provide a check for a jurisdiction to make certain it has adequate available land for those sectors of the economy that are likely to expand. As with projecting future population growth, projecting future employment growth is far from an exact science. It is part art and part science, part subjective and part quantitative. This section uses SACOG Draft 2035 Projections (January 2015) to estimate future employment in West Sacramento, presented in five-year increments through Key Terms No key terms are noted. Regulatory Setting No unique regulatory requirements are noted. Major Findings West Sacramento employment in 2035 is projected to double its employment in 2015, with 53,600 jobs by West Sacramento is projected to experience more job growth than any other city in Yolo County, accounting for more than half (60 percent) of projected growth in Yolo County from 2015 to BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

15 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Existing Conditions Similar to population projections, employment projections on a county level are more widely available than city-level employment projections. In fact, SACOG is the only agency that provides employment projections for West Sacramento. Population projections use current estimates (2015) and 2035 projections to derive estimates for the other time periods. A similar approach is used to derive employment projections in West Sacramento. Table 4-12 presents projected employment in West Sacramento and Yolo County through West Sacramento projections are based on current employment data from Claritas (2007) and current SACOG projections (January 2015) for As indicated, West Sacramento employment estimates for the other time periods (e.g., 2025, and 2030) are derived by applying the average annual growth rate from 2007 to Yolo County employment estimates are similarly calculated, using California Employment Development Department (EDD) data from 2005 and SACOG projections for 2035 to calculate the average annual growth rate. In addition to obtaining an estimate of Yolo County employment from EDD, current countywide employment (2007) was obtained from Claritas (a market information resources company) to corroborate the use of citywide employment data from Claritas. A comparison of estimated 2007 countywide employment from both sources indicates clear similarity between the two (the Claritas estimate is slightly higher than the EDD estimate, by 3.1 percent). This similarity provides a level of assurance regarding the accuracy of current employment estimates in the city and validates using such estimates in the analysis. TABLE 4-12 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS City of West Sacramento and Yolo County 2015 to 2035 Place City of West Sacramento 22,500 38,075 46,483 53,428 53,599 Yolo County 88, , , , ,022 1 West Sacramento employment from Claritas and Yolo County employment estimated using the average annual growth rate derived from 2005 EDD data and 2035 SACOG projections. Source: Claritas, 2007; SACOG, 2015; Goodwin Consulting Group, Inc. West Sacramento employment is projected to grow to 53,599 residents by 2035, a 138 percent increase over current (2015) employment estimates. This amounts to more than double Yolo County s employment growth (58.6 percent) for the same period. From 2015 to 2035, future employment in West Sacramento is projected to account for more than half of Yolo County s total employment growth. The remaining 40 percent is divided between Woodland, Davis, Winters, and unincorporated Yolo County. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

16 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN 4.6 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Introduction Long-range city development plans should be based on the economic realities of the marketplace. This section provides an overview of local and regional economic trends that will affect economic development in West Sacramento. Key Terms Absolute Growth. The change in employment in a particular industry divided by the base year employment in that industry. For example, construction jobs in Yolo County increased from 2,674 jobs in 1996 to 4,992 in 2004, which represents an absolute growth of 86.7 percent in the construction sector. Capture. The portion of non-local aggregate spendable income that is attracted to the local area by existing retail offerings in that local area. Declining Economic Base. Industries that are highly specialized in the county, but are experiencing declining employment. Declining Transitional Industries. experiencing declining employment. Industries that are equally specialized in the county, but are Economic Base. The portion of the local economy that primarily sells its goods and services to customers outside the county or local region. These industries draw revenue into the county that is then recirculated among local-serving non-basic businesses such as retail and service establishments. Emerging Industries. Industries that are under-specialized in the county and are growing rapidly. Floor-Area-Ratio (FAR). The ratio of the gross building square footage permitted on a lot to the net square footage of the lot. For example, on a lot with 10,000 net square feet of land area, an FAR of 1.00 will allow 10,000 square feet of building floor area to be built, regardless of the number of stories in the building (e.g., 5,000 square feet per floor on two floors or 10,000 square feet on one floor). On the same lot, an FAR of 0.50 would allow 5,000 square feet of floor area and an FAR of 0.25 would allow 2,500 square feet. Growing Economic Base. Industries that are highly specialized in the county and are growing rapidly. Growing Transitional Industries. Industries that are equally specialized in the county and are growing rapidly. Land Reserve. Projections of demand for residential and non-residential land uses involve numerous assumptions and are based in large part on projections of population and employment, which are themselves based on many assumptions. Applying a reserve to the analysis of demand ensures that the long-term supply of land is sufficient to meet projected land requirements. The reserve also promotes market efficiencies, since a potential oversupply of land may reduce pressure on land prices and encourage needed development. Moreover, the City will be able to offer prospective builders and tenants a variety of parcel locations, sizes, and configurations, which may attract the developers and users of jobgenerating land uses BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

17 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Leakage. The portion of local aggregate spendable income that is unsatisfied by existing local retail offerings and escapes to retailers beyond the local region. Net Acreage. The developable area of a lot or parcel, which excludes streets and other public property and rights of way, such as schools and parks. Relative Growth. Compares an industry s rate of absolute growth in the region to its rate in the state. If an industry s relative growth is greater than zero, then that industry in the region is growing faster than the same industry in the state and is considered to have a competitive advantage locally. Small Declining Industries. Industries that are under-specialized in the county, but are experiencing declining employment. Specialization. A ratio that describes the county s relative concentration of employment compared to the state s concentration of employment in any given industry. For example, if 10 percent of California s employment is in agriculture, while 15 percent of the county s employment is in agriculture, the county s level of specialization would be 1.5 (15 percent divided by 10 percent). This ratio indicates a highly specialized industry the county is 1.5 times more concentrated in agriculture employment compared to California. Generally, numbers above 1.25 indicate high specialization, numbers between 0.75 and 1.25 indicate equal specialization, and numbers below 0.75 indicate a low specialization. Regulatory Setting No unique regulatory requirements are noted. Major Findings Yolo County industries that experienced consistent relative growth between 1988 to 1996 and 1996 to 2004 include transportation and warehousing, mining, wholesale trade, real estate rental and leasing, educational services, and three manufacturing sectors (textile product mills, petroleum and coal product manufacturing, and computer and electronic product manufacturing). These industries merit the attention of local officials because they comprise or may potentially become the region s economic base, which may lead to substantial regional wealth and job growth. Although West Sacramento is capturing overall retail sales from its surrounding areas, it is also experiencing leakage in the motor vehicle parts and dealers, home furnishings, electronics, food and beverage stores, clothing, hobbies and sporting goods, and food service and drinking places categories. Total demand for non-residential land amounts to over 1,350 acres by 2030, excluding a 20 percent land reserve. This includes acres of retail demand, acres of office demand, and acres of industrial demand. Total demand increases to more than 1,620 acres if a 20 percent reserve is included. Based on existing land uses and General Plan-designated land, anticipated demand in the city for non-residential land, assuming a 20 percent reserve, is estimated to be 70 percent higher than remaining supply, with office and industrial land uses showing a potential shortfall by 2030 and retail land uses reaching near equilibrium. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

18 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN In Yolo County, the transportation and warehousing sector is the only industry that continues to be categorized as a growing economic base industry. High vacancy rates in office space in West Sacramento suggest that the office market is oversupplied, while low vacancy rates in retail and industrial space suggest that these markets are undersupplied. While a majority of housing units in West Sacramento are single-family, the trend in residential development is shifting from single-family to multi-family housing units. Existing Conditions Economic Base Analysis Introduction This section analyzes Yolo County s economic base industries as well as those in the surrounding region. It describes the current economy in West Sacramento and provides a regional context for economic development in the city. Opportunities for employment growth and business development in West Sacramento stem in large part from trends experienced throughout Yolo County and in other nearby counties as well. Background The economic base of a city or region comprises of businesses that market their goods and services primarily outside the local area. This business activity draws income and wealth into the area, which in turn supports local-serving retail and service businesses and jobs. Economic base businesses typically include manufacturing firms, wholesale operations, and visitor-serving businesses. Under certain instances, other industries may be included in a region s economic base. Agricultural producers export outside the local region and are part of the economic base, although a portion of the food is consumed locally. If they are large enough, construction firms and a variety of business services and professional service corporations may be included in the economic base. In areas supporting medical research facilities, such as Davis, health services may be part of the economic base. While there may be some flexibility in the way the composition of the economic base is defined, the central characteristic of economic base businesses is that they primarily serve customers outside their local region. Local employment growth and growth in the state are quantified to determine whether local growth industries are declining, keeping pace, or growing more rapidly in the region as compared to the state. The region s level of specialization for each industry compared to the state is also analyzed. By reviewing absolute growth rates, relative growth rates, and levels of specialization, the analysis begins to shed light on those industries in which a region maintains a competitive advantage, and provides insight into which industries are emerging, in transition, or declining BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

19 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS In analyzing employment growth trends, it is useful to categorize business sectors into six groups, as shown in Figure 4-1. This figure illustrates the parameters of the six categories, each category representing the possibility that an industry may be doing better, or worse, than the state. Identifying businesses in each category will help the region in making land use decisions and is important for business attraction and retention efforts. Economic Base Categories All industries are categorized into one of the following six groups: Growing Economic Base includes those industries that have positive relative employment growth and are highly specialized (specialization greater than 1.25). These industries are the most important parts of the local economy and warrant attention from planners and policymakers. They are the source of much of the region s existing income, but are growing and likely to be the largest source of future jobs as well. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

20 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN Declining Economic Base includes those industries that are highly specialized, but have negative relative employment growth. These industries may have experienced industry-wide problems, problems within the individual businesses, or industry-wide restructuring that eventually will strengthen the competitiveness of the affected firms and result in future growth. These industries are important subjects for business retention efforts because they include many jobs. Growing Transitional Industries include those industries that have positive relative employment growth and are equally specialized (specialization between 0.75 and 1.25). These industries are transforming and may very well contribute to the region s future economic base. These industries may warrant special attention given their potential to create regional wealth and expand employment in the region. Declining Transitional Industries include those industries that are equally specialized, but have negative relative growth. Like growing transitional industries, these industries are also under transformation. However, they are not growing as fast as, and in some cases are declining faster than the state, so economic development efforts should be directed elsewhere. Emerging Industries include those industries that have positive relative employment growth, but are under-specialized (specialization less than 0.75). Like growing transitional industries, emerging industries are possibly on their way to becoming part of the future economic base of the region, producing rapid employment growth (although the aggregate numbers may be small). These industries warrant limited attention until their potential to create regional wealth and expand employment in the region is more fully validated. Small Declining Industries include those industries that have negative relative employment growth and are under-specialized. These industries do not have a notable regional presence and do not have growth prospects compared to industries in the other categories. A region should not focus on these industries. Yolo County s Economic Base The following economic base analysis focuses on economic sectors and industries in the county instead of the city because city-level data is scarce. Also, West Sacramento is part of Yolo County and, to a large degree, is both reflective of and dependent on trends occurring across the county and the larger region as a whole. The analysis uses Covered Employment and Wages (CEW) data from 1988, 1996, and 2004 for Yolo County and California to derive economic growth. Tables A-1 thru A-3 in Appendix A provide a historical overview of employment trends in Yolo County. Table A-1 shows employment growth in Yolo County by industry from 1988, 1996, and 2004, as well as the percentage change in employment from 1988 to 1996 and 1996 to Total employment increased one percent in the eight years from 1988 to 1996, but jumped to 17.7 percent in the next eight-year period from Table A-2 shows employment distribution by industry in Yolo County for 1988, 1996, and Finally, Table A-3 ranks Yolo County industries by their level of regional specialization. Yolo County s economic base analysis combines employment growth and an industry s level of specialization to determine the economic base category for that industry. Tables A-4.1 and A-4.2 summarize the results of the Yolo County economic base analysis for non-manufacturing industries and manufacturing industries, respectively BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015

21 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS As shown in Tables A-4.1 and A-4.2, the transportation and warehousing sector is the only industry that continues to be categorized as a growing economic base industry. This Yolo County industry, which accounted for 7.5 percent of the county s total employment in 2004, has experienced high specialization compared to the state in both 1996 and Moreover, it has experienced rates of growth from 1988 to 1996 and from 1996 to 2004 exceeding those rates statewide. Other growing economic base industries in 2004 include mining, wholesale trade, beverage and tobacco product manufacturing, and printing and related support activities. Industries that have experienced consistent growth or decline provide further insight about the future compared to those industries that experience sporadic shifts. For example, the real estate and rental and leasing industry has been in transition in both 1996 and 2004, which suggests that this industry may well be on its way to becoming a future economic base in Yolo County. Several other industries have also experienced consistent growth, but have traditionally been under-specialized. These industries include educational services and three manufacturing industries (textile product mills, petroleum and coal products manufacturing, and computer and electronic product manufacturing). These industries merit special attention given their potential for growth and ability to attract other complementary industries and businesses. Comparison with the Surrounding Regions Although West Sacramento is part of Yolo County, it also has a regional economic context that is influenced by parts of both the Bay Area (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Solano Counties) and Sacramento (El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, and Yolo Counties) regions. Tables A-5 and A-6 summarize the economic base analyses for the Sacramento and Bay Area regions, respectively. Woods and Poole employment data from 1996 and 2004 for these two regions are used in the analysis. While every industry in the Sacramento region, except farm employment, experienced positive relative growth from 1996 to 2004, the situation in the Bay Area region is not as positive. In fact, a majority of industries in the Bay Area region experienced negative relative growth for the same period. This trend may be a result of Bay Area companies relocating to the Sacramento region for its affordability, labor force, seismic stability, and other factors. West Sacramento s Current Employment Composition (2007) Table 4-13 shows the number of businesses and jobs in West Sacramento as of West Sacramento s employment base is heavily concentrated in retail (20.0 percent) and service-related businesses (25.8 percent), with wholesale trade as the third largest major economic sector at 15.1 percent of the total. The transportation, communication, and public utilities sector and manufacturing sector, are the fourth and fifth largest, respectively, each accounting for a little more than 10 percent of total jobs. BACKGROUND REPORT JULY

22 CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO GENERAL PLAN Industry TABLE 4-13 BUSINESS AND EMPLOYMENT CITY OF WEST SACRAMENTO 2012 % of Businesses Total Employment % of Total Transportation and Warehousing % 4, % Wholesale Trade % 3, % Retail Trade % 2, % Manufacturing % 2, % Professional, Scientific, and Technical Skills % 1, % Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation % 1, % Construction % 1, % Accommodation & Food Services % 1, % Government % 1, % Other Services % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % Finance and Insurance % % Information % % Management of Companies and Enterprises % % Real Estate & Rental & Leasing % % Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 5 0.4% % Non-Classified % % Educational Services % - - Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 7 0.6% - - Total 1,126 24,867 Source:. City of West Sacramento Economic Profile 2013 Market Analysis Introduction This section provides information regarding the dynamics between the amount of residential development anticipated through 2035 and the demand for retail space. The analysis also estimates the growth potential of other non-residential land uses, including office and industrial space. Non-Residential Development Trends Table 4-14 presents a summary of existing (2007) retail, office, and industrial space in West Sacramento and changes since Between 2000 and 2007, the West Sacramento retail, office, and industrial submarket grew by 22.1 percent, with the office market experiencing the largest increase. However, at a 19.2 percent vacancy rate (compared to 11.8 percent for the Sacramento regional market), the office market is over-supplied while the retail and industrial markets appear under-supplied with very-low- to 4-22 BACKGROUND REPORT JULY 2015