CHAPTER 3 POPULATION AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

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1 CHAPTER 3 POPULATION AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS INTRODUCTION Population trends in La Vista and its respective planning jurisdiction serve as valuable indicators of future development needs and patterns for the community and provide a basis for the realistic projection of the future population. The quantity, location and density of demographic features play an important role in shaping the details of various development plans to meet the needs of the community. The population trends and projections for the years 1966 through 2007 were studied and forecasted, utilizing a process of both trend analysis and popular consent. The La Vista Planning Steering Committee established a population growth goal for the city of 2.1 percent annually. To meet this goal, the City of La Vista would need to wisely allocate its remaining developable acres within its corporate limits. This population goal would also require the creation of additional jobs and housing stock for the city. GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS The analysis and projection of population are at the center of all planning decisions. This process assists in understanding important changes which have and will occur throughout the community's planning period. Estimating population size is critical to a community planning process. Further, projecting a community's population is extremely complex. Since projections are based on various assumptions about the future, they must be carefully analyzed and continually reevaluated due to the community's dynamic economic and social structure. 3.1

2 Table 3.1 identifies population trends and projections for the City of La Vista from 1966 to 2007 and Sarpy County from 1980 through It is estimated that the population of both the city and Sarpy County have reached current (1997) estimated populations of 11,966 and 115,690 respectively. TABLE 3.1 POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA/SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA Year Population Total Change Percent Annual Change Percent La Vista ,497 4,858 9,588 9,840 11,966 14,500 +1,361 +4, ,126 +2, % +97.3% +2.6% +21.6% +21.1% % +9.7% +0.3% +3.1% +2.1% Sarpy County , , , , , , , % +12.7% +17.9% +1,657 +1,872 +2, % +1.8% +1.8% Source: Census of Population and Housing 1980, STF-1A 1990 Utilizing the 2.1 percent annual growth goal, the City of La Vista would experience an increase of 2,534 persons during the period 1997 to 2007, to produce a total population base of 14,500. Sarpy County would also increase in population an estimated 17.9 percent, or 20,710 persons by 2007, to reach a total population of 136,400. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS For planning purposes, the various cohorts of population are important indicators of the special needs of a community. The cohorts of age, sex and family structure can assist in determining potential labor force and the need for housing, public facilities and other important local services. An analysis of age characteristics can be used to identify the potential need for public school, recreational areas and short- and long-term health care facilities. 3.2

3 Table 3.2 provides age distribution trends and projections for the City of La Vista. Between 1997 and 2007, each age category is expected to increase in population. The largest estimated increase will occur in the 33 to 54 age group. The median age increased from 23.6 years in 1980 to 27.4 years in By 2007, the median age in La Vista is expected to increase to 31.3 years. TABLE 3.2 POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA Age Group Change Change 18 and Under 3,914 3, ,685 4, ,529 3, ,664 4, ,785 2, ,220 3, , TOTAL 9,588 9, ,966 14,500 +2,400 Median Age Source: Census of Population, 1980, 1990 During the next ten years, an increase in persons should occur in each elderly age category (55+ years). The largest increase should occur in the 62 to 74 year age group. Overall, persons age 55 and over are expected to increase 904 persons by

4 BIRTHS AND DEATHS Table 3.3 provides an analysis of birth and death trends in La Vista from 1985 to During this ten year period, La Vista experienced a net gain, with births exceeding deaths by 1,577 persons. This trend of net change is expected to continue during the next ten years to produce a net gain of approximately 1,360 persons. TABLE 3.3 BIRTHS AND DEATHS TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA Year Births Deaths Net Change TOTAL 1, ,577 Annual Average * 1, ,360 Annual Average *Projections Source: Nebraska Department of Health, Division of Health Data Systems,

5 RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN The ethnic diversity of the community was analyzed in the 1990 Census and the results are displayed in Table 3.4. In relation to race, 94.8 percent of the total 9,840 people were white. Hispanic origin comprised 3.1 percent of the total population. TABLE 3.4 RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1990 Race Number % of Total White 9, % Black % Native American, Eskimo or Aleut % Asian or Pacific Islander % Other % TOTAL 9, % Hispanic Origin % Source: Census of Population, STF-1A

6 INCOME TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOME Table 3.5 identifies household income trends and projections in La Vista, Nebraska. In 1990, an estimated 65.9 percent of the La Vista households earned an annual income of $25,000 or more. By 2007, over 75 percent of all households are projected to earn annual incomes of $25,000+. The median household income is expected to increase from $44,050 in 1997 to $50,000 by Despite this increase in median income, by 2007 an estimated 40 to 47 percent of all households in La Vista will have an annual income of 80 percent or less of the Omaha Metro median income, or officially classified as "low- to moderate income." TABLE 3.5 HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA Income Group % of Change Less than $10, % $10,000 - $19, % $20,000 - $34,999 1,291 1,597 2, % $35,000 - $49, ,277 1, % $50,000 or More % TOTAL (Specified) 3,370 4,084 5, % Median Income: $31,836 $44,050 $50, % Source: Census of Population, STF-3A,

7 ELDERLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME Table 3.6 presents household income trends and projections for persons 65 years of age and over in La Vista, Nebraska. All household income categories of more than $15,000 are expected to increase during the next ten years. The largest percentage increases anticipated to occur during this planning period will be the $35,000 and over income categories, with an overall expected increase of percent. Despite an increase in annual income levels, by 2007, an estimated 55 to 62 percent of the senior households are expected to have an annual income of less than 80 percent of the county's median income, or officially classified as "low- to moderate income." TABLE 3.6 HOUSEHOLD INCOME, 65+ YEARS TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA Income Group % of Change Less than $10, % $10,000 - $14, % $15,000 - $34, % $35,000 - $49, % $50,000 or More % TOTAL (Specified) % Median Income: $23,650 $35,215 $44, % Source: Census of Population, STF-3A,

8 SOCIAL SECURITY RECIPIENTS Table 3.7 identifies the number of persons receiving Social Security Income (SSI) and/or Supplemental Social Security Income (SSSI) in Sarpy County. A total of 8,310 persons received SSI in Of this total, 61 percent were retired workers, while 21.8 percent were under 65 years of age. In 1994, the total persons receiving social security income equalled an estimated 8 percent of the county population. TABLE 3.7 PERSONS RECEIVING SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA Social Security Income (1994) Number of Beneficiaries Retirement Benefits Wives and Husbands 555 Retired Workers 5,065 Children 70 Survivor Benefits Widows and Widowers 975 Children 450 Disability Benefits Disabled Workers 800 Wives and Husbands 60 Children 335 TOTAL (December 1994) 8,310 Aged 65 or Older Men Women 2,250 3,250 TOTAL 6,500 Supplemental Security Income (1994) Aged (65+) 52 Blind 4 Disabled 189 TOTAL 245 Source: Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration,

9 A total of 245 people received Supplemental Social Security Income in This equalled about 0.2 percent of the total persons in Sarpy County. A total of 193, or 78.8 percent of the recipients were blind or disabled. This number identifies a special consumer group in the county in need of special services. PER CAPITA INCOME Table 3.8 identifies per capita income trends and projections for Sarpy County. The 1997 per capita income is estimated to be $22,500. By 2007, per capita income is expected to increase 33 percent, to $29,925. TABLE 3.8 PER CAPITA INCOME TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA Year Income % Change 1988 $14, $15, % 1990 $15, % 1991 $16, % 1992 $16, % $14,164-$16, % $22,500 - $29, % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,

10 OWNER AND RENTER HOUSING COSTS Table 3.9 identifies housing costs as a percentage of household income in La Vista, in 1990, for both owner and renter households. A total of 29.6 percent of the renter households, 19.6 percent of the owner households and 23.7 percent of all households paid more than 30 percent of their annual income for housing costs. TABLE 3.9 OWNER AND RENTER HOUSING COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1990 Income Categories Owner Households Renter Households All Households Less than $10, Less than 30 percent percent or more $10,000 to $19,999 Less than 30 percent percent or more $20,000 to $34,999 Less than 30 percent percent or more $35,000 to $49,999 Less than 30 percent percent or more $50,000 or more Less than 30 percent percent or more TOTAL 1,921 1,366 3,287 All incomes Less than 30 percent 1,545 (80.4%) 962 (70.4%) 2,507 (76.3%) 30 percent or more 376 (19.6%) 404 (29.6%) 780 (23.7%) TOTAL (specified) 1,921 (100.0%) 1,366 (100.0%) 3,287 (100.0%) Source: Census of Population, STF-3A,

11 EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC TRENDS The most recent and comprehensive employment data available for Sarpy County was obtained from the Nebraska Department of Labor. Since these figures are only available on a countywide basis, a review and analysis of Sarpy County labor force statistics will need to provide an understanding of the economic activity occurring in and around the City of La Vista. However, the City of La Vista contributes a small percentage (estimated 10 percent) to the county workforce. Direct comparisons and projections based on county trends are an estimate at best. Evaluation of county trends can be useful to gain a perspective on regional employment patterns. LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT Table 3.10 depicts the labor force and employment for Sarpy County from 1980 to To accomplish the proposed 2.1 percent annual growth goal for La Vista, the County labor force would need to increase almost 24 percent, to a total of 71,991 workers by the end of the planning period. An additional estimated 13,721 jobs would need to be provided for county residents during the next ten years. TABLE 3.10 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA Civilian Labor Force 33,699 48,189 59,580 74,065 Unemployment 1, ,310 2,074 Rate of Unemployment Employment 32,306 47,319 58,270 71,991 Change in Total Employment Number Annual % Change % Annual ,490 +1, % +4.3% ,951 +1, % +3.3% ,721 +1, % +2.3% Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information,

12 EMPLOYMENT TYPE Table 3.11 identifies employment type in Sarpy County. From 1984 to 1994 the county experienced an overall increase of 30.7 percent in non-farm employed persons. From 1997 to 2007, the number of non-farm employed persons is expected to continue to increase as new jobs are created and small businesses expand and additional retail, industrial and construction jobs are added to the area's employment market. TABLE 3.11 WORK FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA Work Force % Change % Change NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT WAGE AND SALARY 13,705 20,114 26, % +30.7% MANUFACTURING 553 1,061 1, % +53.4% DURABLE % +36.9% NON-DURABLE , % +63.5% NON-MANUFACTURING 13,152 19,053 24, % +29.4% CONSTRUCTION & MINING % +26.6% TRANS., COMM., UTILITIES* 753 3,161 5, % +58.9% TRADE 3,298 4,878 6, % +24.9% Retail 3,047 4,248 5, % +24.6% Wholesale % +27.8% FIN, INS. & REAL ESTATE** % +6.2% SERVICES 2,395 3,680 6, % +66.5% GOVERNMENT 5,487 5,941 5, % -2.4% Federal 2,503 2,822 2, % -19.8% State % -19.1% Local 2,862 2,977 3, % +15.0% *Transportation, Communication & Public Utilities **Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market, Information,

13 COMMUTER POPULATION Table 3.12 identifies the commuter population of La Vista and Sarpy County. The 1990 Census identified that 91.4 percent of La Vista's employed population and 49.3 percent of the county's employed population worked outside the city or county. TABLE 3.12 EMPLOYMENT IN COUNTY LA VISTA/SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1990 Residents Place of Employment Number Percent City of La Vista % Outside of La Vista 4, % TOTAL 5, % County Residents County of Sarpy 27, % Outside of Sarpy County 26, % TOTAL 53, % La Vista Travel Time to Work Number 9 minutes or less % minutes 1, % minutes 1, % minutes % 40 minutes or more % TOTAL 5, % Source: Census of Population and Housing, STF-3A, 1990 ECONOMIC SUMMARY Overall, the economic outlook for La Vista could be considered "excellent" for the planning period (1997 to 2007). Economic opportunities will expand with the development of 96th Street and Giles Road. All types of development opportunities will exist. La Vista has historically been a "bedroom community" for the Omaha metropolitan area. However, development opportunities exist that could create additional jobs within La Vista. The stable economy and improved business development, coupled with an interest in establishing a community identity, makes La Vista a very attractive community in which to work and live. 3.13