Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission
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1 Making the Case: THE NEW ECONOMY of an Aging Population in Metropolitan Atlanta Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission
2 For the First Time in Forever Fewer Births and less Migration Means FEWER New People
3 Fertility
4 Population Growth Comparison 200,000,000 3,500,000 3,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, ,000,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , , Change Change Change United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia (139 Counties) Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
5 Longevity
6 Age and Sex in USA: Source: Census Bureau National Projections 2012
7 Who is Working is Changing Ages Ages Ages 75+ Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area) Ages Ages Ages 45-54
8 NEW ECONOMIC STRENGTH In 2013 Q1, those aged 65+ held 3.7% of the jobs in the 10-county ARC area The average monthly wage is $1,208 for those 65+, which does lag the overall average monthly wage for all others (18-64) in the workforce at $1,400 Billion in 65+ Wages Actually, it is $960 million (2013) For some higher-paying industries, e.g. Professional Services, Mgmt. of Companies, average wages for 65+ are higher let s compare to 2007 (just 5 years ago) then to 2000 Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
9 Growth in the 65+ Workforce , ,000 Increased by Almost 100% From , the jobs for those 65+ did increase 16,802, BUT Jobs for increased 119,786 The explosion in 65+ happened in recession and recovery period of Between 2007 and 2013 (recession and recovery), the 65+ workforce has increased by 14,846 jobs while the job base has declined by 78,656 jobs! So jobs filled by 65+ went up almost 30%, while jobs filled by those aged fell by 4% Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
10 Rehearsing the Future using Economic Forecasting
11 WHAT DOES REMI SAY? REMI Econometric Model Features Model incorporates four unique quantitative methodologies Integrated Dynamic Measures economic impacts and responsive demographic and economic changes over time Each model is custom built to match regional client specificity Customized Structural Incorporates transparent and robust economic linkages built on proven methods and theory Source: REMI
12 Age Population Growth In Thousands To 2013 To 2040 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
13 Age Composition Change 12.00% 10.00% Percent of Total Population 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% To 2013 To 2040 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
14 Extreme Aging Thousands Ages 85+ Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area) 14
15 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Regional Age By Race/Ethnicity 1990 to 2040 Age 0-14 Age Age % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 8% 16% 30% 8% 21% 24% 30% 33% 9% 34% 33% 30% 27% 65% 54% 41% 37% 37% 34% % 6% 10% 13% 17% 21% 23% 7% 27% 31% 9% 31% 30% 29% 40% 74% 30% 63% 52% 48% 20% 45% 41% 10% 0% Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3% 12% 14% 17% 29% 32% 7% 23% 26% 9% 37% 34% 32% 30% 66% 51% 42% 40% 36% 35% Age 65+ 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 7% 11% 17% 18% 22% 9% 23% 25% 26% 82% 78% 71% 66% 61% 54%
16 Population Determinants 60 Components In Thousands Total Population in Millions Net Econ migrants - All Natural Change Total Population 2000 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
17 Region s Employment Opportunity 25 Economic Migrants by Race/ Ethnicity in Thousands White-NonHispanic Black-NonHispanic Other-NonHispanic Hispanic Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
18 1990 Labor Force Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
19 Labor Force 2013 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
20 Labor Force 2040 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
21 Dimensions of Regional Growth Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population and Change Source: REMI, Fulton Graying of America webinar
22 Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI, Fulton Graying of America webinar
23 Economic Fiscal Effects Benefits of an Aging of Population Retirees Retirees bring incomes earned from outside of region Pension Payments, Social Security, and other retirement savings Outside income spent on housing, health care, consumer goods and services Attracting (or retaining) retirees can be viewed as an export industry of the region, similar to tourism Source: REMI, Fulton Graying of America webinar
24 Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Retirement Migration and the Economy Demand Side Retirees have significant spending on goods and services Consumption patterns differ for retirees (e.g. more health care spending) Supply Side Loss of labor force as baby boom moves from working to retirement Regions need to replace this labor force through natural growth or in-migration Source: REMI, Fulton Graying of America webinar
25 REMI Fiscal Retirement Effects of an Migration Aging Population Scenario What if more retirees move to Metro Atlanta??? $40Billion More in Personal Income $7.8Billion In Additional GDP FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL Assumptions Annual increase of 1, retired migrants per year to 20-county economy from Distribution weighted on 65+ population in each county No explicit costs considered Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not net benefits) Increase of $40B in Personal Income Increase of $7.8B in GDP Almost 100,000 more job-years for the economy Population increase of 16,000 by 2040 (LOSS across some other cohorts) Source: REMI
26 REMI Fiscal Working Effects Age of an Migration Aging Population Scenario What if more working age(18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta? $4Billion More in Personal Income $2.6Billion In Additional GDP FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL Assumptions Annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged per year to 20-county economy from Distribution weighted on population aged in each county No explicit costs considered Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not net benefits) Increase of $4B in Personal Income Increase of $2.6 in GDP Almost 29,400 more job-years for the economy Population increase of 8,000 by 2040 Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
27 Fiscal What Effects You of Need an Aging to Population know! The New Economy is increasingly dependent on the work of our 65+ population These workers are already earning close to a BILLION dollars a year in wages In the future, these workers will add billions to our regional economy in the future. Attracting additional retirees to Metro Atlanta would have strong positive impact to our Economy Seniors are a critical part of our economic competitiveness Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
28 Making the Case: THE NEW ECONOMY of an Aging Population Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission
29
30
31 (1)National Demographic Trends Source: REMI, Fulton Graying of America webinar
32 (2)National Demographic Trends Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI, Fulton Graying of America webinar
33 Regional Attractiveness Thousands Net Ret Migrants Net Domestic Migrants Net Int. Migrant Source: Plan 2040 Transportation Update, 2014
34 National Labor Force Participation Rates by Race/ Ethnicity Estimated 1992-Projected Hispanic Asian White NH Black Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
35 Region s Labor Force 4,000 Regional Labor Market 67% 3,600 66% 3,200 65% 2,800 64% in Thousands 2,400 2,000 1,600 63% 62% 61% Rate 1,200 60% % % % Labor Force Participation rates Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
36
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