NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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1 NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 16 th Annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference Federal Reserve Bank of Boston November 16, 2017 Mary A. Burke Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
2 Economic Activity Indexes: Robust Net Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Indexed to Pre-recession Peaks Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT US Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, NBER, Haver Analytics
3 Real GDP Per Capita Below Pre-Recession Peak in CT, ME, RI Indexed to Pre-Recession Peaks Recession CT ME MA NH RI Line Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis / Haver Analytics
4 Payroll Jobs Still Below Peak in CT; Job Growth Weak in VT Since Indexed to Pre-recession Peaks Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT US Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics
5 Last 12 Months: Employment Growth Below Trend in CT, ME, NH, VT Annual Long-term Trend Last 12 months Since Peak Percent Percent Number Percent Number United States ,777, ,229,000 New England , ,100 Connecticut , ,400 Maine , Massachusetts , ,100 New Hampshire , ,000 Rhode Island , Vermont , ,000 Note: Last 12 months refers to year-over-year growth through September Annual Longterm trend refers to average year-over-year growth for the period Since Peak refers to employment change from each state s pre-recession peak employment level. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
6 Metro Area Job Growth is Mixed; 4 Metros Saw Losses in Last 12 Months V T RI NH MA ME CT Percent Change, September September 2017 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Danbury Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford New Haven Norwich-New London-Westerly Waterbury Bangor Lewiston-Auburn Portland-South Portland Barnstable Town Boston-Cambridge-Newton Brockton-Bridgewater-Easton Framingham Haverhill-Newburyport-Amesbury Lawrence-Methuen-Salem Leominster-Gardner Lowell-Billerica-Chelmsford Lynn-Saugus-Marblehead New Bedford Peabody-Salem-Beverly Pittsfield Springfield Taunton-Middleborough-Norton Worcester Dover-Durham Manchester Nashua Portsmouth Providence-Warwick Burlington-South Burlington Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
7 Construction Sector First in Job Growth; Warehousing Up, Retail Down Percent Change, September September 2017 Construction Other Services Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Education & Health Professional & Business Services Finance Wholesale Trade US NE Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Retail Trade Government Information Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
8 Unemployment Flat in Region; Up in MA, Down Sharply in RI 12 Unemployment Rate, Percent Recession US NE 0 Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics Sep-16 Sep-17 United States New England Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont
9 Unemployment Rate Movements Mixed Across Metros VT RI NH MA ME CT Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Danbury Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford New Haven Norwich-New London-Westerly Waterbury Bangor Lewiston-Auburn Portland-South Portland Barnstable Town Boston-Cambridge-Nashua Leominster-Gardner New Bedford Pittsfield Springfield Worcester Dover-Durham Manchester Portsmouth Providence-Warwick Burlington-South Burlington Sep-16 Sep-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
10 Broader Unemployment Measure (U6) 25 Still Elevated in CT 20 U6 Unemployment Rate, Percent Recession US CT ME MA NH RI VT 5 0 Q4-03 Q1-05 Q2-06 Q3-07 Q4-08 Q1-10 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-15 Q2-16 Q3-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics
11 Region s Labor Force Participation Rate Up Since Dec. 2016, Despite Recent Decline
12 Labor Force Participation Rebound Owes to MA, CT, ME Labor Force Participation Rate, Percent Recession US CT ME MA NH RI VT Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics
13 75 Employment-to-Population Ratios Up Since 2013, Except in VT Employment Pop. Ratio, Percent Recession US CT ME MA NH RI VT Jan-00 Feb-02 Mar-04 Apr-06 May-08 Jun-10 Jul-12 Aug-14 Sep-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics
14 Without International Migration, New England Population Would be Declining
15 Single-Family Permits Still Well Below Pre-Recession Highs Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.
16 Multifamily Permits Activity At or Above Pre- Recession Levels Since Late 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.
17 Headline CPI Inflation Up Since 2015; Boston Rate 2.7% 8 6 Recession Boston US Percent Change from Year Earlier Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics
18 Fuel & Utilities Prices Extend Sharp Increases in Boston (not Gasoline) Percent Change, September September 2017 All Items All Items, Less Food and Energy US Boston Fuel & Utilities Recreation Transportation Shelter Education and Communication Medical Care Food Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
19 Personal Income Growth Up from 2016Q4, But Still Moderate 10 8 Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession NE -6 US Q1-06 Q2-07 Q3-08 Q4-09 Q1-11 Q2-12 Q3-13 Q4-14 Q1-16 Q2-17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER, Haver Analytics
20 New England Hourly Wages Above U.S. Average; Increased More Since 2005
21 House Price Growth Accelerating in New England Since Mid Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession NE FHFA Purchase-Only US FHFA Purchase-Only US S&P Case-Shiller -15 Q2-03 Q2-05 Q2-07 Q2-09 Q2-11 Q2-13 Q2-15 Q2-17 Source: FHFA, NBER, S&P/Case-Shiller, Haver Analytics
22 MA (and Boston) Seeing Strongest House Price Gains in Region Percent Change, Q Q United States Boston 6.4 New England Connecticut Maine Massachusetts 6.7 New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Case Shiller FHFA Purchase-Only FHFA HPI Source: FHFA, S&P/Case-Shiller, Haver Analytics
23 Boston Tops Donovan Index* of Major Cities *Source: City Donovan Index Rating Rank Boston Los Angeles San Francisco New York Oakland Pittsburgh Miami Baltimore Dallas Chicago Detroit Houston
24 *The Donovan Index is a measure of the rate at which a city s professional sports teams win championships.
25 Most NE States Facing Fiscal Strain, Weak Revenue Growth 2017YTD- 2016YTD Taxes (%) FY17 Shortfall As % of Gen. Fund FY18 Shortfall As % of Gen. Fund CT -0.3% ($467M) 3% ($2.3B) 13% ME 2.1% MA -0.5% ($431M) 1% ($749M) 2% NH -11.1% RI -1.8% ($134M) 4% VT 2.1% ($76M) 5% Sources: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics; Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
26 Pension Funding Level Below 70 Percent in Most States (Except ME) Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT Source: Pew Center on States / Haver Analytics
27 Proposed Federal Policy Changes Could Have Large Impact on States Anticipated tax reductions already having effects Delayed capital gains hurting tax revenues Elimination of State and Local Tax Deduction Changes (mostly cuts) in Medicaid funding to states (Graham-Cassidy bill) Uncertainty makes fiscal planning more difficult
28
29 GDP Growth Surged in Q2 and Q3 in MA; Forecast Calls for Solid Growth Source: U.S., Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); MassBenchmarks (Massachusetts 2017Q1 and later only).
30 Consumer Confidence Exceeds Pre- Recession Levels Indexed to U.S. Average of Recession NE US 0 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Source: The Conference Board, NBER, Haver Analytics
31 Present and Future Confidence Both Increased Oct-16 Oct US NE US NE US NE Consumer Confidence Present Situation Future Expectations Source: The Conference Board, Haver Analytics
32 FOMC Projections: GDP Growth Slows to 2% by 2019; at 1.8% in Long-Run Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 20,
33 FOMC: Federal Funds Rate Below 4 Percent Through 2020; Long-Run Rate 2.8 Percent (Median) Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 20,
34 Risks to the Outlook Upside risks to growth Strong labor market, bullish sentiment Federal tax reform and/or deregulation Downside risks to growth Can Fed achieve soft landing? Debt-financed tax cuts can be contractionary Stock market correction Risks for the region Proposed federal policy changes Ongoing drags on growth of labor force
35 Major Stock Indexes Above Pre- Recession Highs by 50% or More Sources: Dow Jones, The Wall Street Journal/Haver Analytics
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