ECONOMIC DIGEST THE CONNECTICUT

Transcription

1 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST Vol.22 No.5 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development MAY 2017 IN THIS ISSUE... Short-Term Employment Projections through Economic Indicators on the Overall Economy... 5 Individual Data Items Comparative Regional Data... 9 Economic Indicator Trends Help Wanted OnLine Business and Employment Changes Announced in the News Media Labor Market Areas: Nonfarm Employment Sea. Adj. Nonfarm Employment...14 Labor Force Hours and Earnings Cities and Towns: Labor Force Housing Permits Technical Notes At a Glance In March... Nonfarm Employment Connecticut... 1,685,400 Change over month % Change over year % United States ,858,000 Change over month % Change over year % Unemployment Rate Connecticut % United States % Short-Term Employment Projections Through 2018 By Matthew Krzyzek, Economist, and Patrick Flaherty, Assistant Director of Research, DOL E ach year, the Office of Research at the Connecticut Department of Labor produces short-term employment projections by industry and occupation. The projections are based on a careful analysis of the Connecticut economy and labor market. CURRENT SITUATION March of 2010 was the first month of payroll job growth after the great recession. Seven years later the Connecticut economy has regained 91,200 jobs or 77% of the 119,100 lost during the great recession as of March Social Assistance Health Care Accommodation & Food Svces. Management of Companies Educational Services Other Services Prof., Scientific & Tech. Svces. Transportation & Warehousing Administrative & Support Svces. Real Estate Government * Arts, Ent., & Recreation Information Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Construction Finance & Insurance Manufacturing Overall employment growth has been dampened by the government sector which is down 14,000 jobs since February Private sector employment has fared significantly better having recovered 94% of the jobs lost during the downturn. Household employment, which includes the self-employed, independent contractors, and those who work out of state as well as state residents who have payroll jobs in Connecticut, hit a record high in March The unemployment rate, which peaked at 9.2% in October 2010 and remained that high through February 2011, was down to 4.8% Figure 1: Connecticut Employment Change Year Ending 2008Q2 to Year Ending 2016Q2 Consumer Price Index United States Change over year % -30,000-20,000-10, ,000 # of Jobs * Government excludes education, hospitals, and gambling industries Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 1

2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST The Connecticut Economic Digest is published monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development. Its purpose is to regularly provide users with a comprehensive source for the most current, up-to-date data available on the workforce and economy of the state, within perspectives of the region and nation. The annual subscription is $50. Send subscription requests to: The Connecticut Economic Digest, Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, 200 Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT Make checks payable to the Connecticut Department of Labor. Back issues are $4 per copy. The Digest can be accessed free of charge from the DOL Web site. Articles from The Connecticut Economic Digest may be reprinted if the source is credited. Please send copies of the reprinted material to the Managing Editor. The views expressed by the authors are theirs alone and may not reflect those of the DOL or DECD. Managing Editor: Jungmin Charles Joo Associate Editor: Erin C. Wilkins We would like to acknowledge the contributions of many DOL Research and DECD staff and Rob Damroth to the publication of the Digest. Connecticut Department of Labor Scott D. Jackson, Commissioner Kurt Westby, Deputy Commissioner in March It first fell below 5 percent in August In December 2016 it was 4.4 percent, a level last seen in mid The slight increase during 2017 has occurred during labor force expansion and employment growth, which indicates that discouraged workers are reentering the labor force, a positive sign for the state economy. Sector Change In addition to the monthly payroll and employment surveys, comprehensive employment and wage data is collected and published from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The detailed QCEW data forms the basis for the employment and occupational projections. We can also use the QCEW to examine changes in the structure of Connecticut s economy. Figure 1 shows the employment change from the year ending 2008 Q2 (the peak before the great recession) to the year ending 2016 Q2 (the base quarter for the projections discussed below). Health Care and Social Assistance have long been bright spots in the Connecticut economy, adding jobs throughout the recession and the recovery. From 2008 to 2016 they added nearly 27,000 jobs. Growth has slowed in the most recent two years, particularly for health care, but both continued to add jobs (Figure 2). Accommodation and Food Services is another sector that has experienced strong employment growth over the recovery. This growth, in part, is the result of a shift of consumer preferences, which can be seen in the comparatively slow recovery of retail jobs. As noted in a recent article in The Atlantic, consumers are buying less at stores, buying more online and going out to eat more than they were prior to the recession. 1 Manufacturing, the sector with the most losses, is down 32,000 jobs (17 percent) since Seventy-four percent of those losses occurred by 2010; since then manufacturing losses have tempered. Payroll data through March 2017 show an increase in manufacturing from one year prior. Government, however, continues to decline. Through March 2017 government Andrew Condon, Ph.D., Director Office of Research 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Wethersfield, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) dol.econdigest@ct.gov Website: Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development Catherine Smith, Commissioner Tim Sullivan, Deputy Commissioner Bart Kollen, Deputy Commissioner 505 Hudson Street Hartford, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) decd@ct.gov Website: Construction Social Assistance Prof., Scientific & Tech. Svces. Transportation & Warehousing Administrative & Support Svces. Other Services Accommodation & Food Svces. Management of Companies Real Estate Educational Services Information Retail Trade Health Care Government * Mining & Quarrying Unknown Utilities Agriculture & Forestry Wholesale Trade Finance & Insurance Arts, Ent., & Recreation Manufacturing Figure 2: Connecticut Employment Change Year Ending 2014Q2 to Year Ending 2016Q2-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 # of Jobs * Government excludes education, hospitals, and gambling industries Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) 2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

3 Figure 3: Jobs Lost and Recovered Over the Current Business Cycle in the U.S., Connecticut, and Neighboring States # of # of Peak Trough As of February % Peak Emp Emp Trough decline recovery Date Date 2017 decline months months % recovery % of previous peak Recovery Rate* (as of February 2017) United States 138,430, ,733,000 Jan Feb ,760, % 12.4% 105.3% 184.3% Connecticut 1,713,300 1,594,200 Mar Feb ,682, % 5.5% 98.2% 74.1% Maine 620, ,200 Feb Aug , % 5.1% 99.9% 97.7% Massachusetts 3,331,600 3,190,600 Apr Oct ,603, % 12.9% 108.2% 292.9% New Hampshire 651, ,200 Jan Jan , % 9.1% 103.9% 183.4% New Jersey 4,094,500 3,835,900 Jan Sep ,130, % 7.7% 100.9% 113.8% New York 8,811,300 8,480,000 Apr Oct ,496, % 12.0% 107.8% 306.9% Pennsylvania 5,822,000 5,564,400 Apr Feb ,941, % 6.8% 102.1% 146.4% Rhode Island 495, ,900 Dec Jul , % 8.6% 99.9% 98.7% Vermont 309, ,900 Jun Jul , % 7.1% 102.0% 142.9% * Recovery Rate = % of lost jobs that have been recovered Source: CT Dept. of Labor & BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment at all levels is down more than 21,000 jobs from 2008, with state government down more than 7,000 and local government (including Native American tribal government employment) down nearly 13,000. Excluding education, hospitals and gambling, state government is responsible for more than two-thirds of the decline in overall government employment since In the past two years, state government has continued to decline while federal and local employment have increased slightly. Other sectors that declined since 2008 are turning around. Construction gained over 4,000 jobs in the two years ending 2016Q2. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and Transportation and Warehousing have experienced similar two year gains of nearly 3,000 each. Connecticut s Recovery Compared to Other States As shown in Figure 3, Connecticut s 7.0 percent decline during the recession was steeper than that of the U.S. and every northeast state with the exception of Rhode Island, which fell 8.0 percent. Since its February 2010 trough, slow employment growth in Connecticut has caused its recovery rate to lag the rest of the region and the nation. A key post-recession development has been the significant employment growth of both New York and Massachusetts, which as of February 2017 are at employment levels respectively at 7.8% and 8.2% above peak 2008 levels. This employment growth has consistently outpaced the U.S. recovery overall, with each state experiencing shallower employment troughs and a shorter period of job loss (18 months each vs. 25 months for the U.S.). The rest of the Northeast states have by and large experienced slower recoveries, with every other state experiencing employment growth below the U.S. rate from March 2014 onward. Prior to that threshold, many Northeast states had employment growth that outpaced the country. Connecticut s growth tracked the U.S. rate until early 2011, when it began its downward divergence. Up until recently, Connecticut s employment growth rate has largely tracked the respective rates of Maine, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, but since mid-2015, employment growth has lagged those of other Northeast states. As of February 2017, Connecticut s level of employment stood at 98.2% of its March 2008 peak and the state had recovered 74.1% of the 119,100 employment drop it experienced from March 2008 to February For the two years ending 2016Q2 (the base quarter for the projections), Connecticut employment is up 1.2% compared to up 4.1% in Massachusetts, 3.8% in New York and 2.8% in Rhode Island. After Connecticut, the slowest growing state in our region was Vermont (up 1.5%). CONNECTICUT SHORT-TERM PROJECTIONS The current projections are for the period from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of For this period, we project overall employment in Connecticut to increase by 0.8%, from 1,880,450 to 1,895,489, as is shown in Figure 4, slightly faster than the rate we projected last year. Although second-quarter 2017 employment data isn t yet available, early indications are that Connecticut is on track to meet or exceed the growth projected during the previous projection cycle. Projections by Industry The largest major sectors that show significant rate increases are Construction, Other Services, and Professional and Business Services, which we project to grow 2.5%, 2.0%, and 1.8% compared to 0.8% for total employment. After significant THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 3

4 Figure 4: Employment Projections by Industry Industry 2016 Q Q2 Emp % History Projections Change Change Total All Industries 1,880,450 1,895,489 15, % Self Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, All Jobs 171, ,260 2, % Goods Producing 222, ,148 1, % Natural Resources and Mining 5,689 5, % Construction 60,374 61,906 1, % Manufacturing 156, , % Service Providing 1,487,207 1,498,081 10, % Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 299, , % Information 32,236 31, % Financial Activities 130, , % Professional and Business Services 220, ,033 4, % Education and Health Services 471, ,071 5, % Leisure and Hospitality 169, , % Other Services (except Government) 77,687 79,263 1, % Government 85,960 84,707 1, % Figure 5: Projected Employment in Education and Health Services Industry 2016 Q2 History 2018 Q2 Projections Emp Change % Change Educational Services 186, ,726 1, % Ambulatory Health Care Services 90,776 93,007 2, % Hospitals 64,818 65, % Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 66,454 66, % Social Assistance 62,697 66,158 3, % Figure 6: Employment Projections by Occupational Group Occupational Group 2016 Q2 History 2018 Q2 Projections Emp Change % Change Total, All Occupations 1,880,450 1,895,489 15, % Management 144, ,647 1, % Business and Financial Operations 104, ,461 1, % Computer and Mathematical 48,782 50,067 1, % Architecture and Engineering 36,231 36, % Life, Physical, and Social Science 14,615 14, % Community and Social Service 41,159 41, % Legal 20,948 20, % Education, Training, and Library 135, , % Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 38,677 38, % Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 111, ,059 1, % Healthcare Support 53,709 54,781 1, % Protective Service 34,251 34, % Food Preparation and Serving Related 138, ,678 1, % Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 79,420 80,754 1, % Personal Care and Service 94,812 97,018 2, % Sales and Related 185, , % Office and Administrative Support 270, ,637 1, % Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 4,052 4, % Construction and Extraction 74,551 75,932 1, % Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 56,172 56, % Production 96,810 96, % Transportation and Material Moving 96,252 97,337 1, % losses from the period, Construction is expected to continue the growth it has experienced in recent years. Other Services and Professional and Business Services both currently have employment levels above those experienced in 2008 and are expected to continue to add jobs. Major industries that are projected to have negative annual average growth rates are Government, down 1.5 percent, and Information, down 0.9 percent over two years. The expected losses in Government and Information employment continue previous declines. Though slower than the economy overall, the increases projected for Manufacturing and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities represent positive turns for sectors that sustained large losses during the last recession. Education and Health Services, the largest combined industry sector in the economy, is expected to continue growth that has persisted throughout the business cycle. However, there are some warning signs that some industries within this sector are facing challenging times. As shown in Figure 5, Education employment is expected to dip slightly as demographic and fiscal challenges put pressure on public and private education at all levels. At the same time, the largest institutions providing health care (hospitals and residential nursing facilities) are projected to grow at or below the rate of the overall economy a major change from the years when health care far outstripped overall economic growth. Projections by Occupation As noted above, overall employment is projected to grow by 15,039 from 2016Q2 through 2018Q2. The major categories with the largest employment change are Personal Care and 4 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

5 Figure 7: Employment Projections by Minimum Education Level of Educational Attainment 2016 Q2 History 2018 Q2 Projections Emp Change % Change Total All Industries 1,880,450 1,895,489 15, % No formal educational credential 455, ,129 4, % High school diploma or equivalent 648, ,708 2, % Postsecondary non degree award 113, ,292 1, % Some college, no degree 51,300 50, % Associate degree 43,841 44, % Bachelor's degree 466, ,439 4, % Master's degree 38,311 38, % Doctoral or professional degree 62,393 63, % However, growth remains slower than the national average and in our neighboring states. The mix of growth is also changing. Health and Education, which have been major sources of job creation in recent years are slowing or even contracting. On the other hand, manufacturing is projected to add jobs after decades of decline. While there will be opportunities at all educational levels there will continue to be demand for educated workers. Service (+2,206), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (+1,967), and Management (+1,563). The four occupational groups that are projected to decline over the two year projections period are Office and Administrative Support (-1,111), Production (-343), Sales and Related (-80), and Education, Training, and Library (-77) occupations. The expected slowdown in Education, Training, and Library occupations is the result of population declines in the school-aged population. Each occupation is assigned an education value based on the minimum education necessary to enter an occupation. Figure 6 shows the breakdown of occupational projections by education value. Over the two years that span the projections period, 56% of job growth will be in occupations that require a credential or degree beyond high school with the largest increase in occupations that require at least a bachelor s degree to enter the occupation. Occupations requiring a master s, doctorate, or professional degree are expected to increase significantly faster than overall employment. Conclusion Seven years after the end of the Great Recession, Connecticut s employment is still growing and is projected to grow over the next two years. Data Limitations: The projections in this report have been carefully prepared to ensure accuracy, but by nature are subject to error. Therefore, the information is best used as an indicator of employment trends, rather than an exact count of employment. Additional information on labor market information is available on the Office of Research website: For more detail on the short-term industry and occupational projections, visit: Projections/ShortTerm. 1 Thompson, Derek. What in the World is Causing the Retail Meltdown of 2017? The Atlantic, archive/2017/04/retailmeltdownof2017/ / GENERAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q 4Q CHANGE 3Q (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2016 General Drift Indicator (1996=100)* Leading Coincident Farmington Bank Business Barometer (1992=100)** Philadelphia Fed's Coincident Index (July 1992=100)*** Mar Mar Feb (Seasonally adjusted) Connecticut United States Sources: *Dr. Steven P. Lanza, University of Connecticut **Farmington Bank ***Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia General Drift Indicators are composite measures of the four-quarter change in three coincident (Connecticut Manufacturing Production Index, nonfarm employment, and real personal income) and three leading (housing permits, manufacturing average weekly hours, and initial unemployment claims) economic variables, and are indexed so 1996 = 100. The Farmington Bank Business Barometer is a measure of overall economic growth in the state of Connecticut that is derived from non-manufacturing employment, real disposable personal income, and manufacturing production. The Philadelphia Fed s Coincident Index summarizes current economic condition by using four coincident variables: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 5

6 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Total nonfarm employment increased over the year. Average weekly initial claims rose from a year ago. The production worker weekly earnings fell over the year. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM 1, , ,684.1 Natural Res & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government* Source: Connecticut Department of Labor UNEMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY * Includes Native American tribal government employment (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2017 Labor Force, resident (000s) 1, , ,901.4 Employed (000s) 1, , ,812.0 Unemployed (000s) Unemployment Rate (%) Labor Force Participation Rate (%) Employment-Population Ratio (%) Average Weekly Initial Claims 4,691 3, ,341 Avg. Insured Unemp. Rate (%) Q Q U-6 Rate (%) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % Production Worker Avg Wkly Hours Prod. Worker Avg Hourly Earnings Prod. Worker Avg Weekly Earnings , , CT Mfg. Prod. Index, NSA (2009=100) Production Worker Hours (000s) 3,725 4, , Industrial Electricity Sales (mil kwh)* CT Mfg. Prod. Index, SA (2009=100) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; U.S. Department of Energy *Latest two months are forecasted. Personal income for third quarter 2017 is forecasted to increase 3.5 percent from a year earlier. INCOME (Seasonally adjusted) 3Q* 3Q CHANGE 2Q* (Annualized; $ Millions) NO. % 2017 Personal Income $265,609 $256,649 8, $263,340 UI Covered Wages $114,825 $112,156 2, $113,636 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Forecasted by Connecticut Department of Labor 6 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG New Housing Permits* Mar , Electricity Sales (mil kwh) Feb , ,771 4, Construction Contracts Index (1980=100) Mar New Auto Registrations Mar , ,377 83, Exports (Bil. $) 4Q S&P 500: Monthly Close Mar , S&P 500 Index increased over the year. STATE Sources: Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; F.W. Dodge; Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles; Wisertrade.org * Estimated by the Bureau of the Census BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MO/QTR LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG STARTS Secretary of the State Mar , ,703 7, Department of Labor 3Q , ,253 7, TERMINATIONS Secretary of the State Mar , ,948 3, Department of Labor 3Q , ,886 5, Sources: Connecticut Secretary of the State; Connecticut Department of Labor Net business formation, as measured by starts minus stops registered with the Secretary of the State, was up over the year. STATE REVENUES YEAR TO DATE Mar Mar % % (Millions of dollars) CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG TOTAL ALL REVENUES* 1, , , , Corporate Tax Personal Income Tax , , Real Estate Conv. Tax Sales & Use Tax , , Gaming Payments** Total all revenues were up from a year ago. Sources: Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; Division of Special Revenue *Includes all sources of revenue; Only selected sources are displayed; Most July receipts are credited to the prior fiscal year and are not shown. **See page 23 for explanation. TOURISM AND TRAVEL Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG Occupancy Rate (%)* Mar Major Attraction Visitors** Mar , ,034 1,001, Air Passenger Count Mar 2017 NA NA NA NA NA Gaming Slots (Mil.$)*** Mar , , , Gaming slots rose over the year. Sources: Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports; Connecticut Commission on Culture and Tourism; Division of Special Revenue *STR, Inc. Due to layoffs, Info Center Visitors data are no longer published. **Attraction participants expanded from 6 to 23 beginning with July 2014 data ***See page 23 for explanation THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 7

8 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Compensation cost for the nation rose 2.3 percent over the year. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Industry Workers Mar Dec 3-Mo Mar Mar 12-Mo (Dec = 100) % Chg % Chg UNITED STATES TOTAL Wages and Salaries Benefit Costs NORTHEAST TOTAL Wages and Salaries Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. inflation rate was up by 2.4 percent over the year. CONSUMER NEWS % CHANGE (Not seasonally adjusted) MO/QTR LEVEL Y/Y P/P* CONSUMER PRICES CPI-U ( =100) U.S. City Average Mar Purchasing Power of $ ( =$1.00) Mar Northeast Region Mar NY-Northern NJ-Long Island Mar Boston-Brockton-Nashua** Mar CPI-W ( =100) U.S. City Average Mar Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board *Change over prior monthly or quarterly period **The Boston CPI can be used as a proxy for New England and is measured every other month. Conventional mortgage rate rose to 4.20 percent over the month. INTEREST RATES Mar Feb Mar (Percent) Prime Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Conventional Mortgage Sources: Federal Reserve; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

9 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL DATA STATE NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2017 Connecticut 1, , ,684.1 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,604.7 New Hampshire New Jersey 4, , ,128.5 New York 9, , ,498.0 Pennsylvania 5, , ,950.3 Rhode Island Vermont United States 145, , , ,760.0 All nine states in the region gained jobs over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2017 Connecticut 1,911,815 1,891,730 20, ,901,386 Maine 700, ,423 15, ,100 Massachusetts 3,661,256 3,587,261 73, ,626,754 New Hampshire 752, ,974 6, ,012 New Jersey 4,522,023 4,516,737 5, ,523,342 New York 9,604,845 9,551,992 52, ,552,905 Pennsylvania 6,442,464 6,439,970 2, ,435,475 Rhode Island 554, ,299 1, ,336 Vermont 347, ,335 3, ,791 United States 160,201, ,278, , ,056,000 All states posted increases in the labor force from last year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Mar Mar Feb (Seasonally adjusted) CHANGE 2017 Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont United States Eight states showed a decrease in its unemployment rate over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 9

10 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS PERSONAL INCOME, YOY % CHG (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter First Second Third Fourth UI COVERED WAGES, YOY % CHG (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter First Second Third Fourth U.S. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX, YOY % CHG (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter First Second Third Fourth U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, YOY % CHG (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

11 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS STATE NEW AUTO REGISTRATIONS PROCESSED, 12 MMA Month ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Jan 15,900 20,847 18,368 Feb 9,383 33,149 13,577 Mar 13,136 29,768 18,432 Apr 17,330 24,714 May 19,015 23,685 Jun 20,115 21,531 Jul 21,116 18,932 Aug 10,045 20,558 Sep 7,711 18,251 Oct 10,541 17,561 Nov 11,599 19,748 Dec 12,378 18,540 NEW HOUSING PERMITS, 12 MMA Month ,200 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS INDEX, 1980=100, 12 MMA Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ELECTRICITY SALES, millions of kilowatt hours, 12 MMA Month ,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1, Jan 2,436 2,446 2,401 Feb 2,440 2,419 2,390 Mar 2,447 2,397 Apr 2,454 2,386 May 2,442 2,384 Jun 2,449 2,388 Jul 2,449 2,386 Aug 2,464 2,403 Sep 2,481 2,402 Oct 2,487 2,394 Nov 2,474 2,394 Dec 2,457 2,402 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 11

12 STATE NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES CONNECTICUT Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 1,665,100 1,663,000 2, ,655,900 TOTAL PRIVATE 1,427,700 1,421,200 6, ,419,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 209, ,100-2, ,300 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 53,700 55,400-1, ,600 MANUFACTURING 155, , ,700 Durable Goods 121, , ,300 Fabricated Metal 29,000 29, ,300 Machinery 13,300 13, ,300 Computer and Electronic Product 11,200 11, ,200 Transportation Equipment ,000 41,200 1, ,700 Aerospace Product and Parts 28,100 27, ,200 Non-Durable Goods 33,800 33, ,400 Chemical 6,900 7, ,000 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 1,456,000 1,451,900 4, ,448,600 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 294, , ,400 Wholesale Trade 63,300 62,100 1, ,600 Retail Trade 178, ,600-2, ,300 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 21,100 21, ,000 Building Material 14,800 15, ,200 Food and Beverage Stores 44,100 43, ,900 General Merchandise Stores 28,300 27, ,800 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 52,300 51,000 1, ,500 Utilities 5,300 5, ,100 Transportation and Warehousing 47,000 45,400 1, ,400 INFORMATION 31,600 32, ,300 Telecommunications 8,600 8, ,600 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 131, ,400 1, ,400 Finance and Insurance 111, ,800 1, ,500 Credit Intermediation and Related 25,000 25, ,900 Financial Investments and Related 26,400 26, ,200 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 59,700 58, ,400 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 20,000 19, ,900 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 213, ,700-1, ,100 Professional, Scientific 98,700 98, ,000 Legal Services 12,800 12, ,800 Computer Systems Design 25,800 26, ,700 Management of Companies 32,000 33,200-1, ,800 Administrative and Support 82,600 83, ,300 Employment Services 25,700 28,300-2, ,100 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 331, ,300 2, ,300 Educational Services 65,400 65, ,200 Health Care and Social Assistance 266, ,800 2, ,100 Hospitals 58,800 57, ,700 Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 61,600 62, ,900 Social Assistance 56,900 55,700 1, ,900 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 149, ,800 4, ,700 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 23,100 23, ,900 Accommodation and Food Services 126, ,300 4, ,800 Food Serv., Restaurants, Drinking Places 116, ,700 4, ,100 OTHER SERVICES 66,700 64,000 2, ,000 GOVERNMENT 237, ,800-4, ,400 Federal Government 18,000 17, ,000 State Government. 67,100 69,800-2, ,800 Local Government** 152, ,200-1, ,600 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment 12 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

13 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA BRIDGEPORT - STAMFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 401, ,000-3, ,500 TOTAL PRIVATE 356, ,600-3, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 39,500 40,700-1, ,800 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 10,600 11, ,900 MANUFACTURING 28,900 29, ,900 Durable Goods 22,600 23, ,600 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 361, ,300-2, ,700 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 69,400 70,400-1, ,100 Wholesale Trade 13,500 13, ,400 Retail Trade 45,700 47,200-1, ,500 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 10,200 10, ,200 INFORMATION 12,600 12, ,500 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 41,700 41, ,100 Finance and Insurance 34,800 34, ,600 Credit Intermediation and Related 8,900 9, ,900 Financial Investments and Related 17,300 17, ,200 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 61,800 66,900-5, ,600 Professional, Scientific 30,700 30, ,600 Administrative and Support 21,600 23,600-2, ,300 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 72,800 72, ,400 Health Care and Social Assistance 60,700 60, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 40,900 40, ,300 Accommodation and Food Services 32,500 31,000 1, ,500 OTHER SERVICES 18,200 17, ,700 GOVERNMENT 44,200 44, ,000 Federal 2,500 2, ,500 State & Local 41,700 42, ,500 DANBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 78,400 78, ,800 TOTAL PRIVATE 67,700 67, ,200 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 11,800 12, ,800 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 66,600 66, ,000 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 17,200 17, ,200 Retail Trade 12,400 12, ,200 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 9,200 9, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 7,200 7, ,100 GOVERNMENT 10,700 10, ,600 Federal State & Local 10,000 10, ,900 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 13

14 LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES HARTFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 570, ,000 4, ,500 TOTAL PRIVATE 483, ,300 7, ,800 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 73,200 74,200-1, ,200 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 18,000 19,000-1, ,300 MANUFACTURING 55,200 55, ,900 Durable Goods 45,800 45, ,500 Non-Durable Goods 9,400 9, ,400 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 497, ,800 5, ,300 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 89,700 89, ,800 Wholesale Trade 18,600 18, ,200 Retail Trade 54,100 54, ,500 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 17,000 16, ,100 Transportation and Warehousing 16,100 15, ,200 INFORMATION 11,300 11, ,200 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 57,200 57, ,300 Depository Credit Institutions 6,200 6, ,100 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 36,900 37, ,900 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 74,800 71,100 3, ,600 Professional, Scientific 35,700 34,300 1, ,200 Management of Companies 10,500 10, ,600 Administrative and Support 28,600 26,700 1, ,800 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 108, ,100 3, ,100 Educational Services 14,900 13,800 1, ,000 Health Care and Social Assistance 93,600 91,300 2, ,100 Ambulatory Health Care 31,400 30, ,900 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 46,700 45,700 1, ,700 Accommodation and Food Services 39,700 39, ,200 OTHER SERVICES 22,300 21, ,900 GOVERNMENT 86,900 89,700-2, ,700 Federal 5,300 5, ,400 State & Local 81,600 84,400-2, ,300 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Seasonally Adjusted Labor Market Areas NO. % 2017 BRIDGEPORT-STAMFORD LMA 408, ,300-3, ,600 DANBURY LMA 79,300 79, ,100 HARTFORD LMA 574, ,100 4, ,900 NEW HAVEN LMA 281, ,000-2, ,200 NORWICH-NEW LONDON LMA 130, ,500 1, ,800 WATERBURY LMA 66,900 67, ,900 ENFIELD LMA** 45,100 45, ,300 TORRINGTON-NORTHWEST LMA** 33,000 33, ,900 DANIELSON-NORTHEAST LMA** 27,400 27, ,200 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes ** Unofficial seasonally adjusted estimates produced by the Connecticut Department of Labor 14 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

15 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA NEW HAVEN LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 277, ,900-2, ,500 TOTAL PRIVATE 241, ,200-1, ,300 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 33,000 33, ,900 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 9,900 10, ,700 MANUFACTURING 23,100 23, ,200 Durable Goods 16,700 17, ,700 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 244, ,400-1, ,600 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 50,100 50, ,100 Wholesale Trade 11,600 11, ,600 Retail Trade 28,900 29, ,000 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 9,600 9, ,500 INFORMATION 3,100 3, ,100 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 12,500 12, ,500 Finance and Insurance 8,800 8, ,800 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 30,300 29, ,700 Administrative and Support 13,700 13, ,600 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 78,400 80,000-1, ,800 Educational Services 28,400 30,500-2, ,900 Health Care and Social Assistance 50,000 49, ,900 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 23,000 23, ,300 Accommodation and Food Services 20,200 19, ,800 OTHER SERVICES 11,200 10, ,900 GOVERNMENT 36,300 36, ,200 Federal 4,900 4, ,900 State & Local 31,400 31, ,300 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Value less than 50 HELP WANTED ONLINE CT Online Labor Demand Rose 1,700 in March 2017 The Conference Board s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) data reported that there were 72,500 advertisements for Connecticutbased jobs in March 2017, a 2.4 percent increase over the month and a 5.7 percent increase over the year. There were 3.81 advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in Connecticut s labor force, while nationally it was 2.90 percent. Among the New England states, Massachusetts had the highest labor demand rate (3.93), while Maine had the lowest rate (2.48). Mar Mar Feb (Seasonally adjusted) CT Vacancies (000s) Hartford Vac. (000s) Labor Demand Rate * Connecticut United States Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont * A percent of advertised vacancies per 100 persons in labor force Source: The Conference Board The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas. Background information and technical notes and discussion of revisions to the series are available at: THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 15

16 LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES NORWICH-NEW LONDON- WESTERLY, CT-RI LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 127, ,900 1, ,900 TOTAL PRIVATE 96,900 94,300 2, ,000 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 20,800 20, ,600 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 4,100 4, ,000 MANUFACTURING 16,700 16, ,600 Durable Goods 13,500 12, ,400 Non-Durable Goods 3,200 3, ,200 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 107, ,600 1, ,300 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 23,400 22, ,700 Wholesale Trade 2,600 2, ,600 Retail Trade 16,400 15, ,700 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 4,400 4, ,400 INFORMATION 1,100 1, ,100 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 2,800 2, ,800 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 8,700 8, ,700 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 21,100 20, ,800 Health Care and Social Assistance 17,900 18, ,500 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 15,400 14, ,800 Accommodation and Food Services 13,700 12,700 1, ,400 Food Serv., Restaurants, Drinking Places 11,700 10, ,500 OTHER SERVICES 3,600 3, ,500 GOVERNMENT 30,900 31, ,900 Federal 2,900 2, ,900 State & Local** 28,000 28, ,000 WATERBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 66,100 66, ,900 TOTAL PRIVATE 55,900 56, ,700 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 9,900 10, ,900 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 2,300 2, ,300 MANUFACTURING 7,600 7, ,600 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 56,200 56, ,000 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 12,900 12, ,800 Wholesale Trade 2,100 2, ,100 Retail Trade 9,000 9, ,900 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 1,800 1, ,800 INFORMATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 1,900 1, ,900 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 5,300 5, ,300 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 17,200 17, ,200 Health Care and Social Assistance 15,800 15, ,800 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 5,400 5, ,400 OTHER SERVICES 2,700 2, ,600 GOVERNMENT 10,200 10, ,200 Federal State & Local 9,700 9, ,700 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 16 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

17 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA SMALLER LMAS* Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ENFIELD LMA 44,500 44, ,700 TORRINGTON-NORTHWEST LMA 31,900 32, ,700 DANIELSON-NORTHEAST LMA 27,000 26, ,700 NOTE: More industry detail data is available for the State and its nine labor market areas at: The data published there differ from the data in the preceding tables in that they are developed from a near-universe count of Connecticut employment covered by the unemployment insurance (UI) program, while the data here is sample-based. The data drawn from the UI program does not contain estimates of employment not covered by unemployment insurance, and is lagged several months behind the current employment estimates presented here. * State-designated Non-CES areas For further information on these nonfarm employment estimates contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) SPRINGFIELD, MA-CT NECTA** Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2017 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 332, ,600 3, ,400 TOTAL PRIVATE 266, ,300 2, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 38,200 38, ,200 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 9,900 9, ,800 MANUFACTURING 28,300 28, ,400 Durable Goods 19,200 19, ,300 Non-Durable Goods 9,100 9, ,100 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 294, ,000 3, ,200 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 59,500 58, ,400 Wholesale Trade 11,200 10, ,200 Retail Trade 35,000 34, ,000 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 13,300 13, ,200 INFORMATION 3,400 3, ,400 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 16,800 17, ,800 Finance and Insurance 13,600 13, ,500 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 9,100 9, ,100 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 25,900 25, ,900 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 81,800 79,400 2, ,400 Educational Services 15,600 15, ,200 Health Care and Social Assistance 66,200 64,300 1, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 28,000 29,500-1, ,700 OTHER SERVICES 12,900 12, ,700 GOVERNMENT 66,400 65,300 1, ,900 Federal 6,000 6, ,000 State & Local 60,400 59,300 1, ,900 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. ** New England City and Town Area THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 17

18 LMA LABOR FORCE ESTIMATES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) STATUS NO. % 2017 CONNECTICUT Civilian Labor Force 1,909,500 1,890,500 19, ,896,100 Employed 1,811,500 1,779,900 31, ,791,400 Unemployed 98, ,700-12, ,700 Unemployment Rate BRIDGEPORT-STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 467, , ,100 Employed 444, ,500 3, ,700 Unemployed 23,600 26,500-2, ,400 Unemployment Rate DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 108, ,500 1, ,800 Employed 103, ,200 1, ,500 Unemployed 4,800 5, ,200 Unemployment Rate DANIELSON-NORTHEAST LMA Civilian Labor Force 43,700 42, ,300 Employed 41,200 40,100 1, ,600 Unemployed 2,500 2, ,600 Unemployment Rate ENFIELD LMA Civilian Labor Force 50,700 49,700 1, ,500 Employed 48,100 46,800 1, ,700 Unemployed 2,600 2, ,800 Unemployment Rate HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 627, ,700 10, ,400 Employed 595, ,600 14, ,700 Unemployed 31,800 36,100-4, ,700 Unemployment Rate NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 325, ,400 1, ,500 Employed 308, ,700 4, ,000 Unemployed 16,600 18,600-2, ,500 Unemployment Rate NORWICH-NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 143, ,500 2, ,400 Employed 136, ,000 4, ,500 Unemployed 7,100 8,500-1, ,900 Unemployment Rate TORRINGTON-NORTHWEST LMA Civilian Labor Force 47,300 47, ,000 Employed 44,700 44, ,200 Unemployed 2,600 2, ,800 Unemployment Rate WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 111, , ,100 Employed 104, ,300 1, ,400 Unemployed 7,300 8, ,700 Unemployment Rate UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 159,912, ,854,000 1,058, ,482,000 Employed 152,628, ,738,000 1,890, ,594,000 Unemployed 7,284,000 8,116, , ,887,000 Unemployment Rate Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST