The New England Economy: Jobs, Housing, and the Market Ahead
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1 The New England Economy: Jobs, Housing, and the Market Ahead Robert Clifford, Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Business Breakfast sponsored by Saugus Bank in conjunction with the Saugus Chamber of Commerce June 8, 2011 *The views expressed in this presentation are mine and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or Federal Reserve System
2 Overview Job Market Housing Market Prices and Confidence Economic Outlook
3 New England s economic performance has varied by state 1.05 State Economic Activity Indexes Through April MA VT NH CT US 0.90 RI ME Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Index: Each state s pre-recession peak is equal to 1. Note: The economic activity indexes include four indicators: non-farm employment, the unemployment rate, average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, and wage and salary disbursements. The trend for each state s index is set to match the trend for its gross domestic product (available annually). Shaded bars are recessions. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
4 Overview Job Market Housing Market Prices and Confidence Economic Outlook
5 1.04 Employment is slowly recovering Total Employment Through April VT MA NH NE ME US CT 0.92 RI 0.90 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Index: Each state s pre-recession peak is equal to 1. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6 4.0% The impact of the recession varied greatly across the region Peak to Trough Employment Change 2.0% Dec-06 to Sep-09: Lost 40,000 jobs 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.3% -4.6% -4.8% -4.9% -4.9% -6.0% -8.0% Mar-08 to Aug-09: Lost 143,000 jobs -6.3% -7.0% -8.0% -10.0% MA VT ME NH NE US CT RI Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 7.0% All states have been slow to regain jobs Job Recovery, Trough to April % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.3% Aug-09 to April-11: Gained 67,000 jobs 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% Sep-09 to April-11: Gained 5,400 jobs 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% -1.0% VT MA CT NH NE US RI ME Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Employment Growth by Supersector Percent Change, April 2010 April 2011 Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Finance Prof. Services Education and Health Leisure and Hospitality Other Service Government US NE Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
9 New England Supersector s were less severely impacted Manufacturing Construction Employment Growth by Supersector Peak to Trough -27.9% -16.7% -12.2% -9.1% Wholesale Trade Information Finance -9.9% -8.5% -9.2% -7.2% -6.7% -5.3% Prof. Services -7.9% -4.3% Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Other Service -8.5% -1.8% -3.3% -1.8% Government 0.1% 2.3% Retail Trade -8.7% 0.2% Leisure and Hospitality -4.2% 0.5% Education and Health US NE 5.5% 3.4% -30.0% -26.0% -22.0% -18.0% -14.0% -10.0% -6.0% -2.0% 2.0% 6.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 The recovery has been mixed across sectors Construction Employment Growth by Supersector Trough to Current -10.2% 5.8% Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities -4.2% 2.8% Retail Trade -2.9% 1.9% Government Other Service Finance Wholesale Trade -0.8% -1.7% -1.2% -0.3% -0.9% -0.7% 2.4% 3.3% Information -1.5% -0.1% Manufacturing Education and Health 0.0% 2.6% 3.0% 2.3% Prof. Services 2.7% 5.2% Leisure and Hospitality US NE 3.7% 6.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
11 12.0 Unemployment has remained below the national rate Unemployment Rate Through April 2011 RI 10.0 CT US 8.0 NE MA ME 6.0 VT NH Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Index 2000= What going on in New Hampshire? Unemployment Rate Labor Force Total (Left Axis) Labor Force Employed (Left Axis) Unemployment rate (Right Axis) Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 Alternative Measures of Unemployment 18.0 Through May U-6: Unemployed, plus marginally attached, plus part time U-4: Standard unemployment rate U-1: Percent unemployed 15 weeks or longer 0.0 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 Overview Job Market Housing Market Prices, and Confidence Economic Outlook
15 Home prices have continued to fall FHFA Home Price Index Q = 100 Percent Change from Year Earlier Through Q FHFA United States 5 0 FHFA New England Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority, S&P Case-Schiller
16 but less sharply in New England than the nation. FHFA Home Price Index Q = 100 Percent Change from Year Earlier Through Q FHFA New England FHFA United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority, S&P Case-Schiller
17 The housing downturn resulted in steep price declines United States House Price Changes Percent Change, Peak to Trough Boston New England Connecticut Maine FHFA - HPI Massachusetts FHFA - Purchase Only New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority
18 Foreclosure continue to weigh on a housing recovery Foreclosures Started as a Percent of All Loans Percent Through Q Rate in Q1 2011: US: 1.1% NE: 0.8% CT: 0.8% NH: 0.1% ME: 1.0% RI: 1.4% MA: 0.7% VT: 0.6 % United States New England Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
19 Housing Bust and Foreclosures (US) Index 1991 Q1 = Percent 2.0% FHFA HPI (Left Axis) 1.5% 1.0% Foreclosures started as percent of all mortgages (Right Axis) 0.5% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 0.0% Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority and Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
20 The Federal Tax Credit temporarily lifted home sales 2.50 Index 1990=1 Total Existing Home Sales Through Q New England CT+ME+MA+RI+VT 1.50 United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Sources: National Association of Realtors
21 Permits are at historic lows due to excess supply and low demand 2.0 Index 1988=1 Single Family Housing Permits Through April United States New England 0.0 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
22 Overview Job Market Housing Market Prices and Confidence Economic Outlook
23 Consumer Price Index 8 Percent Change from Year Earlier Through March Boston Area 4 2 United States Mar-93 Mar-95 Mar-97 Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Note: CPI is for all urban consumers. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
24 Components of Consumer Price Increases Percent Change, March 2010 March 2011 All Items Food Shelter Fuel & Utilities Transportation Medical Care Recreation Education and Communication All Items, Less Food and Energy US Boston 0.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Despite stable prices, high gasoline prices can hamper consumption Average Monthly Cost of a Gallon of Regular Grade Gasoline $4.50 Through April 2011 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Sources: Department of Energy
26 180 Consumer confidence is slowly rebounding Consumer Confidence 1985 U.S. Average = 100 Through April United States New England Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Source: The Conference Board/Haver Analytics
27 Future expectations are starting to improve 100 Consumer Confidence 1985 U.S. Average = April 2010 April US NE US NE US NE Consumer Confidence Present Situation Future Expectations Source: The Conference Board
28 An improving economy is providing businesses with confidence Massachusetts Business Indicators Mass. Benchmarks Leading Index (Left Axis) AIM Business Confidence (Right Axis) Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Source: Associated Industries of Massachusetts and the University of Massachusetts. Note: The Massachusetts Benchmarks Index was formerly known as the UMass Leading Index 26
29 25 Downtown Office Vacancy Rates 25 Suburban Through Q United States Boston United States Boston 0 Q1-95 Q1-99 Q1-03 Q1-07 Q1-11 Source: CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors. 0 Q1-95 Q1-99 Q1-03 Q1-07 Q1-11 Office Rents Through Q Adjusted Asking Rent Per S/F Downtown Boston Adjusted Asking Rent Per S/F Suburban United States United States Boston 0 Q1-95 Q1-99 Q1-03 Q1-07 Q Q1-95 Q1-99 Q1-03 Q1-07 Q1-11 Source: CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors.
30 Overview Job Market Housing Market Prices and Confidence Economic Outlook
31 105.0 Index Pre-Recession Peak=100 Employment will recover in the coming years Employment Forecast Through NH VT US MA NE ME CT RI Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, New England Economic Partnership
32 12.0 Unemployment will remain stubbornly high Unemployment Rate Forecast Through RI US CT ME MA NE 4.0 NH VT Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, New England Economic Partnership
33 Home sales will pick up but remain low Existing Home Sales Forecast Index 2005=100 Through VT CT ME US NH NE MA RI Sources: National Association of Realtors, New England Economic Partnership
34 110.0 Improvements in the housing market will take a while FHFA Forecast Index Pre-Recession Peak=100 Through 2015 ME VT MA NE CT NH US RI Sources: Federal Housing Finance Authority, New England Economic Partnership
35 Summary New England s economic recovery is continuing. The region is performing somewhat better than the nation on a whole. Forward-looking indicators suggest positive but moderate growth in 2011 and the coming years.
36 Thank you. Questions?
37 Sources of Further Information Visit for updates on the New England and U.S. economies New England Economic Indicators (statistical information on the New England economy updated continually) New England Economic Snapshot (brief analysis of recent economic indicators Profile of New England (data and brief analysis on important longterm economic and demographic trends in the New England states) Beige Book (anecdotal information updated every six weeks or so) News and Events tab (speeches by Boston Fed president) New England Public Policy Center Assistance Provided (economic updates by Boston Fed economists) Visit for New England state forecasts prepared by the New England Economic Partnership (Spring 2011)
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