Statistical analysis and bootstrapping

Transcription

1 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 1/15 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping Michel Bierlaire Transport and Mobility Laboratory

2 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 2/15 Introduction The outputs of the simulator are random variables. Running the simulator provides one realization of these r.v. We have no access to the pdf or CDF of these r.v. Well... this is actually why we rely on simulation. How to derive statistics about a r.v. when only instances are known? How to measure the quality of this statistic?

3 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 3/15 Sample mean and variance Consider X 1,..., X n independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) r.v. E[X i ] = µ, Var(X i ) = σ 2. The sample mean n X = 1 n i=1 X i is an unbiased estimate of the population mean µ, as E[ X] = µ. The sample variance S 2 = 1 n 1 n (X i X) 2 i=1 is an unbiased estimator of the population variance σ 2, as E[S 2 ] = σ 2. (see proof: Ross, chapter 7)

4 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 4/15 Sample mean and variance Recursive computation: 1. Initialize X 0 = 0, S 2 1 = Update the mean 3. Update the variance S 2 k+1 = ( X k+1 = X k + X k+1 X k k k ) S 2 k +(k +1)( X k+1 X k ) 2.

5 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 5/15 Mean Square Error Consider X 1,..., X n i.i.d. r.v. with CDF F. Consider a parameter θ(f) of the distribution (mean, quantile, mode, etc.) Consider θ(x1,...,x n ) an estimator of θ(f). The Mean Square Error of the estimator is defined as [ ) 2 ] MSE(F) = E F ( θ(x1,...,x n ) θ(f), where E F emphasizes that the expectation is taken under the assumption that the r.v. all have distribution F. If F is unknown, it is not immediate to find an estimator of MSE.

6 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 6/15 How many draws must be used? Let X a r.v. with mean θ and variance σ 2. We want to estimate the mean θ of the simulated distribution. The estimator used is the sample mean: X. The mean square error is E[( X θ) 2 ] = σ2 n The sample mean X is normally distributed with mean θ and variance σ 2 /n. So we can stop generating data when σ/ n is small. σ is approximated by the sample variance S. Law of large numbers: at least 100 draws (say) should be used. See Ross p. 121 for details.

7 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 7/15 Mean Square Error Other indicators than the mean are desired. Theoretical results about the MSE cannot always be derived. Solution: rely on simulation. Method: bootstrapping.

8 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 8/15 Empirical distribution function Consider X 1,..., X n i.i.d. r.v. with CDF F. Consider a realization x 1,...,x n of these r.v. The empirical distribution function is defined as F e (x) = 1 n #{i x i x}, that is the number of values less or equal to x. CDF of a r.v. that can take any x i with equal probability.

9 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 9/15 Empirical CDF F e (x), n = 10 F(x)

10 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 10/15 Empirical CDF F e (x), n = 100 F(x)

11 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 11/15 Empirical CDF F e (x), n = 1000 F(x)

12 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 12/15 Mean Square Error We use the empirical distribution function F e We can approximate [ ) 2 ] MSE(F) = E F ( θ(x1,...,x n ) θ(f), by [ ) 2 ] MSE(F e ) = E Fe ( θ(x1,...,x n ) θ(f e ), θ(f e ) can be computed directly from the data (mean, variance, etc.)

13 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 13/15 Mean Square Error We want to compute [ ) 2 ] MSE(F e ) = E Fe ( θ(x1,...,x n ) θ(f e ), F e is the CDF of a r.v. that can take any x i with equal probability. Therefore, MSE(F e ) = 1 n n n i 1 =1 n i n =1 [ ( θ(xi1,...,x in ) θ(f e)) 2 ] Clearly impossible to compute when n is large. Solution: simulation.,

14 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 14/15 Bootstrapping For r = 1,...,R Draw x r 1,...,x r n from F e, that is draw from the data: 1. Let s be a draw from U[0,1] 2. Set j = floor(ns). 3. Return x j. Compute M r = ( θ(x r 1,...,x r n) θ(f e )) 2, Estimate of MSE(F e ) and, therefore, of MSE(F): 1 R R r=1 M r Typical value for R: 100.

15 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 15/15 Bootstrap: simple example Data: 0.636, , 0.183, -1.67, Mean= MSE= E[( X θ) 2 ] = S 2 /n= r ˆθ MSE e

16 Statistical analysis and bootstrapping p. 16/15 Appendix: MSE for the mean Consider X 1,..., X n i.i.d. r.v. Denote θ = E[X i ] and σ 2 = Var(X i ). Consider X = n i=1 X i/n. E[ X] = n i=1 E[X i]/n = θ. MSE: E[( X θ) 2 ] = Var X ( n ) = Var X i /n i=1 = n Var(X i )/n 2 i=1 = σ 2 /n.