Sovereign Gold Bonds. Attractive option to invest in gold... Gold Bond. Gold back in limelight. February 24, 2017
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1 % Gold Bond Sovereign gold bonds are papers or certificates issued by the Government of India indicating that investors bought the stated quantum (in grams) of gold. The value of the bond will be linked to gold prices. The objective of the scheme is to provide an alternative to buying physical gold Attractive option to invest in gold... February 24, 2017 Sovereign Gold Bonds The Government of India, in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India, has come out with Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme Series IV. The subscription will be open from February 27, 2017 to March 03, 2017 and bonds will be issued on March 17, The issue price of these bonds has been fixed at 2893 per gram, against the current price of 2946 as on February 23, Investors will get additional interest at the rate of 2.50% per annum on the initial deposited amount. Investors will continue to have full exposure to gold prices to the extent of amount deposited. The sovereign gold bonds issued by the Government of India offer the a good option to take exposure to gold as it offers additional interest of 2.50% per annum apart from full gold price exposure Overall asset allocation should remain the deciding factor to determine the amount of exposure to gold bonds After having delivered negative returns in 2013, 2014 and 2015, gold prices have bounced back sharply gaining 11% in 2016 Research Analyst Sachin Jain sachin.ja@icicisecurities.com Sovereign gold bonds offer a good alternative to take exposure to gold as it offers additional interest. There are no annual recurring expenses as compared to gold ETFs (expense ratio in ETF is ~1%) and no storage hassle like those involved in physical gold holding. As per Union Budget , any capital gains arising on redemption of the sovereign gold bond scheme would be exempt from tax. If these bonds are sold in secondary market before maturity, capital gains arising on such transaction will of 20% with indexation if sold on or after 3 years and would be subject to marginal tax rate if sold before 3 years. Gold back in limelight Indian gold prices have gained around 5% since the start of The uncertainty surrounding economic policies in U.S. post the new president along with rising global inflation are the key factors driving gold prices. Also, concerns over the outcome of the French elections and uncertainty over Donald Trump s foreign policy has kept gold in limelight. The unpredicted historic global event of Brexit has given rise to a fresh wave of uncertainty in the global financial system. As a result, there has been a flight to safety and safe havens like developed market sovereign bonds and gold. Hence, any escalation in geopolitical tensions could provide an important turning point for gold, which could extend its gains. Exhibit 1: G o ld prices saw a good rally in 2016 on geopolitical events and revival in demand CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY16 Indian Gold price return Source: Bloomberg
2 Historical Prices Exhibit 2: Issue Period Issue Price ( /gram) Sovereign Gold Bond Nov 5 - Nov 20, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme 2016 Jan 18 - Jan 22, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme 2016 Series II Mar 8 - Mar 14, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme Series I July 18 - July 22, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme Series II Sept 01 - Sept 09, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme Series Iii Oct 24 - Nov 02, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme Series Iv Feb 27 - March 03, Price as on February 23, Source: RBI, ibjarates.com Gold: Medium term outlook positive amid uncertainty Global gold prices started 2017 on a positive note with gold prices up around 5% since the start the start of the year on concerns President Donald Trump will institute protectionist policies and weaken US dollar Market participants believe the US policies under the new President are currently uncertain and will lead to more political and economic uncertainty and less stability in global capital markets. The same is likely to keep demand for gold intact in the near term Rising global political uncertainty with French presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen among the favorites, stoked fears of France leaving the European Union. There are fears that France may follow the UK out of the European Union destabilizing the European economy in the process The medium term outlook, however, remains centered around US Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. US Fed is expected to hike benchmark rates thrice in the year Any change in expectations would have its impact on gold prices Apart from that, the trend in US dollar, the fiscal policy adopted by the US President, and development in euro zone will determine the future prices of gold. On the domestic front, the key development guiding gold prices will be trend in consumption demand by Indian households Prices in the near term may be range bound as the interest rate trajectory in the US is up while volatility surrounding US and Europe may provide support Issue details The following are the basic contours of Sovereign Gold Bond scheme: o Eligibility: Resident Indian entities including individuals, HUFs, trusts, universities and charitable institutions o Rate of interest: 2.50% payable semi-annually on the nominal value of investment o Minimum investment: 1 gm, maximum investment: 500 gm o The tenor of the bond will be eight years with a redemption option from the fifth year to be exercised on the interest payment dates ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research Page 2
3 o Capital gains tax arising out of redemption shall be exempt from tax. If sold in the secondary market, capital gains arising on such transaction will 20% with indexation if sold on or after three years and would be subject to a marginal tax rate if sold before three years o The interest earned on gold bonds would be taxable o Price of bond will be fixed in rupees on the basis of the previous week's (Monday-Friday) simple average of closing price of gold of 999 purity published by the India Bullion and Jewelers Association Ltd. The issue price of the Gold bonds will be 50 per gram less than nominal value. The nominal value of the current series is 2943 and accordingly the issue price is 2893 per gram o The bonds would be tradable on exchanges o Open for public subscription between February 27 and March 03. The bonds will be issued on March 17, 2017 o This is the Series IV of the gold bond scheme in FY Subsequent series would be notified later. Sovereign gold bonds offers the a good option to take exposure to gold as it offers a discount of 50 per gram along with additional interest of 2.50% per annum. The allocation to gold bonds however should be in accordance with the overall asset allocation. ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research Page 3
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