Stocks with high h short build-up likely l candidates for short covering amid recent FPI guidelines

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1 July 0, 207 Derivatives Thematic: Stocks with high h short build-up likely l candidates for short covering amid recent FPI guidelines Research Analyst Amit Gupta Raj Deepak Singh Azeem Ahmad Nandish Patel amit.gup@icicisecurities.com rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com azeem.ahmad@icicisecurities.com nandish.patel@icicisecurities.com com

2 Stocks with high short build-up likely candidates for short covering amid recent FPI guidelines No major intermediate profit booking was seen in the current rally, which has caught short traders on the wrong foot. Market participants have formed short positions in certain stocks in anticipation of profit booking. However, with sustained upsides, it seems they could be forced to cover their short positions. We expect short closure to start in these stocks, which can lead to good upsides in coming sessions We have identified a few stocks that have accumulated noteworthy short positions since November 206 and are prone to witness closure of these short positions. Markets were under pressure in November 206. Since then, despite the Nifty recovery, short positions are getting rolled in the given stocks. In Tata Power and Ambuja Cement, short additions were near 60% and 80%. However, the recent short covering has seen closure of some shorts. Recent Sebi guidelines for the closure of speculative derivatives positions through P-notes could lead to short covering in given stocks Stocks with high short build up likely candidates for short covering Stocks Idirect Code CMP Short additions since Nov 206 3M avg price Tata Motors TATMOT % 450 SBI STABAN % 289 Tata Power TATPOW % 8 Dabur DABIND % 289 Ambuja Cement AMBCE % 245 Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 2

3 Short blocks identified in stocks in futures segment Tata Motors Date Stock levels Major OI Block 4-May May Jun Jun Jul Tata Power Date Stock levels Major OI Block 25-Apr Apr Jun May May Shaded portion are shorting levels taken out SBI by stocks Date Stock levels Major OI Block 28-Jun May May Jun Dabur Date Stock levels Major OI Block 23-May Jun May Apr May Ambuja Cement We have identified stocks where major short blocks have been seen in the futures segment in the recent up move. Shorts have been attempted in these stocks despite the up move. A move above these short blocks is likely to trigger short covering Date Stock levels Major OI Block 24-Apr Apr May Jul Apr Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

4 Long Strategy: Buy SBI July 285 Call at and sell SBI July 300 Call at Deal Target Team : 300. Time At Frame: Your Till Service July expiry PSU banking stocks have seen resumption of buying interest from the start of July series. Most stocks from the space had seen a price decline of over 5-20%. However, with most stocks now reverting from key support levels, we recommend SBI as it is high on short OI and has started to see closure. The open interest in the stock of over 73 million shares has a shortbiasthatisstillprevalent. However, since the start of July series, the OI in the stock has reduced over 5%, suggesting commencement of short covering trend. The (SBI -Nifty )IV spread is currently at 3 and has started to move higher on the call closure towards mean * 2 sigma level of 8.3. This bodes will for the upsides in the stock. In the options space, highest Call base of 300 is seeing traces of short closure. Hence, we have recommended a bull spread. SBI - Nifty AT TM IV Nov-6 7-Nov-6 24-Nov-6 (SBI - Nifty) IV spread: moving higher -Dec-6 8-Dec-6 Spread 20 D EMA +2 SD -2 SD 5-Dec-6 22-Dec-6 29-Dec-6 5-Jan-7 2-Jan-7 9-Jan-7 26-Jan-7 2-Feb-7 9-Feb-7 6-Feb-7 23-Feb-7 2-Mar-7 9-Mar-7 6-Mar-7 Option Dashboard SBI Bull Call Spread : Payoff Options Greeks / Strikes July 285 Call July 300 Call Strategy Delta Vega Gamma Note: The given recommendations are initiated on iclick-2-gain on July 0, Gamma Highest Call Base Highest Put Base ,000 50,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 0, ,000-0,000-20,000-20,000-30,000 Profit/Loss s per lot Profit/Los ss per lot Source: Bloomberg 4

5 Positional Option: Buy Tata Motors July 450 Call at Target 8. Stop Loss Deal Team At Your Service 3.8. Time Frame: Till July expiry While most auto stocks have seen a strong performance in CY8, Tata Motors has languished on the back of adverse news flows. This had triggered creation of short positions in the stock. The current OI of 43 million shares has almost doubled in CY8 with the stock decline from 550 to 430 levels. With the Nifty orbiting into a newer high trajectory, stocks with highh short OI as are seeing short closure. Tata Motors has seen closure in OI in July series (6% closure in July series). In terms of options build-up, the stock had seen heavy shorting in the Call option segment, especially in Call strikes of 450 and 460, with 460 Call having the highest option base. The (Tata Motors -Nifty) IV spread is currently at 6 and has started to move higher on the Call closure towards mean * 2 sigma level of 26. This bodes well for a buy 450 Call strategy. Tata Motors - Nifty AT TM IV Nov-6 7-Nov-6 (Tata Motors - Nifty) IV spread: moving higher 24-Nov-6 -Dec-6 8-Dec-6 Spread 20 D EMA +2 SD -2 SD 5-Dec-6 22-Dec-6 29-Dec-6 5-Jan-7 2-Jan-7 9-Jan-7 26-Jan-7 2-Feb-7 9-Feb-7 6-Feb-7 23-Feb-7 2-Mar-7 9-Mar-7 6-Mar-7 Option Dashboard Tata Motors buy 450 Call : Payoff Options Greek July 450 Call Delta 0.45 Vega 0.38 Gamma Note: Recommendation initiated on iclick-2-gain on July 0, Gamma Highest Call Base Highest Put Base ,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000, 20, ,000 0, , ,000-0,000-30,000-20,000 Profit/Loss per lot Profit/Loss s per lot Source: Bloomberg 5

6 Quant Pick: Buy Tata Power in the range of Target : 98. Stop Loss: 73 Deal Team At Your Service Time Frame: Three Months Stocks in the power space have remained relatively underperformers. With the Nifty moving to newer highs of 9800, the space has seen a pick-up in price performance. Tata Power witnessed a pick-up in delivery volumes near the June expiry and has been constantly trading above those price levels. M IV (Tata Power - Nifty) IV spread: moving higher Spread 20 D EMA +2 SD -2 SD However, in the futures space, the stock is high on short OI. The current OI in the stock of over 22 million shares has been witnessing constant short closure in the last couple of months. The current OI still has significant shorts left that could see closure. Tata Power - Nifty AT The (Tata Power -Nifty ) IV spread is already moving higher as the Call option buying ranging from 80 to 90 is picking up pace since the start of the July series. 0 0-Nov-6 7-Nov-6 24-Nov-6 -Dec-6 8-Dec-6 5-Dec-6 22-Dec-6 29-Dec-6 5-Jan-7 2-Jan-7 9-Jan-7 26-Jan-7 2-Feb-7 9-Feb-7 6-Feb-7 23-Feb-7 2-Mar-7 9-Mar-7 6-Mar-7 Key Stock highlight Price vs. Open Interest 95 Gamma Price Open Interest Spot Price Highest Call Base Beta M Avg Price ( ) 8 Highest Put Base M Avg Volume (Shares) M Avg Roll (%) 77.58% HV 60 Day (% Annualised) 2.26 Note: The given recommendations are initiated on iclick-2-gain on July 0, 207 Price Sep 7-Oct 28 8-Oct Source: Bloomberg 8 8-Nov 9-Dec 30 0-Dec 20 0-Jan 0 0-Feb 3-Mar 24 4-Mar 4 4-Apr -May -May Jun 7-Jul ousands OI in Th 6

7 6-Jan-7 6-Feb-7 27-Feb-7 20-Mar-7 0-Apr-7 -May-7 22-May-7 2-Jun-7 3-Jul-7 Price performance of recommended stocks in trailing 2 months... SBI : CMP 284 Tata Motors : CMP Jul-6 -Aug-6 22-Aug-6 2-Sep-6 3-Oct-6 24-Oct-6 4-Nov-6 5-Dec-6 26-Dec-6 6-Jan-7 6-Feb-7 27-Feb-7 20-Mar-7 0-Apr-7 -May-7 22-May-7 2-Jun-7 3-Jul-7 -Jul-6 -Aug-6 22-Aug-6 2-Sep-6 3-Oct-6 24-Oct-6 4-Nov-6 5-Dec-6 26-Dec-6 Tata Power : CMP 83 Dabur : CMP Jul-6 -Aug-6 22-Aug-6 2-Sep-6 3-Oct-6 24-Oct-6 4-Nov-6 5-Dec-6 26-Dec-6 6-Jan-7 6-Feb-7 27-Feb-7 20-Mar-7 0-Apr-7 -May-7 22-May-7 2-Jun-7 3-Jul-7 -Jul-6 -Aug-6 -Sep-6 -Oct-6 -Nov-6 -Dec-6 -Jan-7 -Feb-7 -Mar-7 -Apr-7 -May-7 -Jun-7 7

8 Price performance of recommended stocks in trailing 2 months... Ambuja Cement : CMP Jul-6 -Aug-6 -Sep-6 -Oct-6 -Nov-6 -Dec-6 -Jan-7 -Feb-7 -Mar-7 -Apr-7 -May-7 -Jun-7 8

9 Portfolio allocation in Derivatives Products It is recommended d to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate t manner between the various derivatives research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment, it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation. For example: The Daily Derivatives product carries two intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation Quant Picks recommendations should be considered in cash segment and stoploss on closing basis. Time frame for these recommendations is 3 month. Products Allocation Return Objective Product wise Max allocation Frontline Mid-cap allocation per stock Number of Calls Stocks stocks Duration Daily Derivatives 5% 2-3% 2 Stocks % 2-3% Intraday Weekly Derivatives 0% 3-5% 2 Stocks 3-5% 5-7% Week Monthly Derivatives 5% 3-5% 4-7 Stocks 7-0% 0-5% Month Global Derivatives 5% 23% 2-3% 45stocks Month Quant Picks 5% 2-3% 6-8 stocks 7-0% 0-5% 3 Months Alpha Trader 0% 2-3% 2-3 strategy 5% - -2 Month Volatility Insights 0% 2-3% 3-4 Strategy 8-0% 0-5% -2 Month Arbitrage Opportunity 5% 2-3% 2-3 Stocks > 2.5% >2.5% Event Based Short term Futures 5% 2-3% 8-2 Stocks -3% 2-5% -2 days Positional Index Strategy 5% 3-4% 2-4 Index calls days Stock option strategy 5% 3-4% 2-8 Stocks - 3-5% -2 days Daily Currency Future 5% 3-4% 3-5 Calls days Monthly Currency Futures 5% 3-4% 34% Calls - - Month 9

10 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road no.7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai

11 Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Amit Gupta B.E, MBA (Finance), Azeem Ahmad MBA (Fin), CS, Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance) and Nandish Patel, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number INH ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving these recommendations. Nothing in this section constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

12 ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Research Analysts giving these recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own % or more of the equity securities of the company/companies mentioned herein as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of these research recommendations. Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged g in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein. It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned herein. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein. We submit that no material disciplinary actionhasbeentakenonicicisecuritiesby any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. 2

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