Banking. New MCLR guidelines marginally impact NIM. Event Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. December 18, 2015

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1 Event Update Sector View Underperform December 18, 2015 Banking New MCLR guidelines marginally impact NIM The RBI yesterday released the final set of guidelines on computing interest rates on advances based on the marginal cost of funds viz. marginal cost lending rate (MCLR). The guidelines need to be implemented from April 1, Earlier, on September 1, 2015, the RBI had issued draft guidelines in this respect. These measures are in line with RBI s stated objective to improve the transmission of policy rates into lending rates of banks. These are also expected to improve transparency in the methodology followed by banks for determining interest rates on advances. The initial expected impact due to MCLR implementation has been significantly neutralised in the final guidelines, giving a positive rub-off for banks. Addition of tenor premium (not a part of draft guidelines) and continuance of base rate regime for existing loans till renewal date has diluted the anticipated near term impact on NIM. The margin impact anticipated due to implementation of MCLR in the first year now appears to have been spread over two to three years with gradual repricing of advances on the reset/renewal dates. Post implementation of MCLR from April 1, 2016, banks with higher short term/ floating/ working capital loans can see near term impact being higher compared to peers with longer tenure loan book. Higher CASA could act as a saviour for banks lowering the impact of repricing of short tenure exposures. Therefore, banks with higher proportion of short term loans (less than or equal to a year) and lower CASA will be the most impacted. Peers with a longer tenure book may see the impact spread out over the years. As per the notification, loans granted under GoI or their undertakings schemes with differential rates as per the scheme are exempted from being linked to MCLR. Further, loans (working capital term loan and FITL) granted as part of any restructuring package are also exempt from the new regime. Accordingly, nearly 12-15% of assets categorised as stressed will remain out of the purview of MCLR. Retail loans forming 15% of credit including term loans with varying tenure of three to five years and home loans with even higher maturity will not be impacted. Consequently, we believe 30-40% of overall advances may be due for repricing in FY17 while the balance will be renewed thereafter. Therefore, NIM pressure in FY17E due to MCLR seems minimal and will be spread out in the coming years. Post alignment, lending rates will become akin to market rates while banks will be disclosing one year maturity MCLR on a consistent basis. Research Analyst Kajal Gandhi kajal.gandhi@icicisecurities.com Vasant Lohiya vasant.lohiya@icicisecurities.com Vishal Narnolia vishal.narnolia@icicisecurities.com On the margin front, large private banks will be least impacted as pressure due to loans set to be repriced in near term [31% for Axis and 60% for HDFC Bank (partially retail)] will be supported by higher CASA (~40%). However, public sector banks (except SBI) could witness relatively higher margin compression owing to 50-60% of advances getting repriced with lower CASA of 20-32%. The CASA here is calculated without deducting international deposits in denominator.

2 Exhibit 1: Advance repricing, CASA to determine near term impact on margins Banks (FY15) Advances with less than or equal to 1 year *# Advances with less than or equal to 1 year (%) Calculated CASA * Calculated CASA (%) Axis Bank Ltd UCO Bank DCB Bank Ltd Dena Bank Allahabad Bank IDBI Bank Ltd United Bank of India Central Bank of India Oriental Bank of Commerce Vijaya Bank State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur State Bank of Mysore Punjab & Sind Bank Karnataka Bank Ltd Andhra Bank Dhanlaxmi Bank Ltd Jammu and Kashmir Bank Ltd Corporation Bank State Bank of India Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd Syndicate Bank City Union Bank Ltd IndusInd Bank Ltd Union Bank of India Punjab National Bank Indian Bank Bank of Maharashtra Indian Overseas Bank State Bank of Travancore Canara Bank Yes Bank Ltd HDFC Bank Ltd Federal Bank Ltd Karur Vysya Bank Ltd South Indian Bank Ltd Bank of Baroda Bank of India Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd Total Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * CASA is calculated without deducting international deposits in denominator; Considered 50% of advances in 1-3 years maturity bucket as loans maturity in 12 months # Above advances figure is indicative mix of short term loans as portfolio is bound to change till FY16 on date of implementation Page 2

3 New MCLR guidelines to shift from current base rate The guidelines need to be implemented from April 1, Earlier, on September 1, 2015, RBI had issued draft guidelines in this respect. These measures are intended to help improve the transmission of policy rates into lending rates of banks and are also expected to improve transparency in the methodology followed by banks for determining interest rates on advances. The key highlights of the final guidelines are as follows: a. All rupee loans sanctioned and credit limits renewed with effect from April 1, 2016 will be priced with reference to the marginal cost of funds based lending rate (MCLR), which will be the internal benchmark for such purposes The fresh floating rate loans sanctioned after April 1, 2016 will have reset dates mentioned in the loan contract. The marginal cost of funds based lending rate (MCLR) prevailing on the day the loan is sanctioned will be applicable till the next reset date, irrespective of the changes in the benchmark during the interim. The periodicity of reset will be one year or lower. Earlier, the periodicity of reset was generally about three years, which is now likely to reduce. b. MCLR has the following components: a. Marginal cost of funds; b. Negative carry on account of CRR; c. Operating costs; d. Tenor premium. Marginal cost of funds The marginal cost of funds will comprise marginal cost of borrowings and return on net worth. Negative carry on CRR Negative carry on mandatory CRR, which arises due to return on CRR balances being nil, will be calculated as under: Required CRR x (marginal cost) / (1- CRR) The marginal cost of funds arrived above will be used for arriving at negative carry on CRR. Operating costs All operating costs associated with providing the loan product including cost of raising funds will be included under this head. It should be ensured that the costs of providing those services, which are separately recovered by way of service charges do not form part of this component. Tenor premium These costs arise from loan commitments with longer tenor. The change in tenor premium should not be borrower specific or loan class specific. In other words, the tenor premium will be uniform for all types of loans for a given residual tenor. Page 3

4 As per RBI, banks are required to publish this internal benchmark i.e. the MCLR for the five maturities like overnight MCLR, one-month MCLR, three-month MCLR, six month MCLR, one year MCLR. In addition to the above, banks have the option of publishing MCLR of any other longer maturity. The final/actual lending rate of banks to a borrower will be the MCLR calculated above plus the spread. Accordingly, there will be no lending below MCLR of a particular maturity for all loans linked to that benchmark. As per the final guidelines, banks should have a Board approved policy explaining the components of spread charged to a customer. Further, the spread charged to an existing borrower should not be increased except on account of deterioration in the credit risk profile of the customer. Any such decision regarding change in spread on account of a change in credit risk profile should be supported by a full-fledged risk profile review of the customer. Exemptions from MCLR The central bank has defined certain category of loans, which are exempt from being linked to MCLR as the benchmark for determining interest rate. These are as follows: 1) Loans covered by schemes specially formulated by Government of India wherein banks have to charge interest rates as per the scheme 2) Working capital term loan (WCTL), funded interest term loan (FITL), etc. granted as part of the rectification/restructuring package are exempted 3) Advances to banks depositors against their own deposits, advances to banks own employees including retired employees, and fixed rate loans granted by banks are exempt Treatment of advances linked to base rate charged to existing borrowers 1) Existing loans and credit limits linked to the base rate may continue till repayment or renewal, as the case may be 2) Existing borrowers will also have the option to move to MCLR linked loan at mutually acceptable terms Page 4

5 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (BFSI) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E Bank of India (BANIND) Sell 9, NA Bank of Baroda (BANBAR) Hold 36, Punjab National Bank (PUNBAN) Hold 22, State Bank of India (STABAN) Buy 168, Indian Bank (INDIBA) Buy 4, Axis Bank (UTIBAN) Buy 102, City Union Bank (CITUNI) Buy 5, Development Credit Bank (DCB) Sell 1, Federal Bank (FEDBAN) Hold 9, HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) 1,073 1,220 Buy 268, Indusind Bank (INDBA) 935 1,050 Buy 54, Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS) Hold 3, Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) Hold 129, South Indian Bank (SOUIN0) Hold 2, Yes Bank (YESBAN) Buy 30, NBFCs LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) Buy 24, Reliance Capital (RELCAP) Buy 9, HDFC (HDFC) 1,224 1,410 Buy 193, PTC India Financial Services (PTCIND) Buy 2, CARE (CARE) 1,252 1,700 Buy 3, Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) 1,915 2,155 Buy 30, Bajaj Finance (BAJAF) 5,845 6,000 Buy 84, Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 5

6 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com Page 6

7 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vasant Lohiya, CA and Vishal Narnolia, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH ICICI Securities is full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vasant Lohiya, CA and Vishal Narnolia, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vasant Lohiya, CA and Vishal Narnolia, MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 7

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