Schaeffler India (FAGBEA) 4800

Transcription

1 Event update Rating Matrix Rating : Unrated Target : NA Target Period : NA Potential Upside : NA Stock Data Particular Amount Market Capitalization ( crore) 7,968 Net Debt (CY16) ( crore) (640.6) Net Worth (CY16) ( crore) 1,452.5 EV ( crore) 7, week H/L ( ) 5149 / 3780 Equity capital ( crore) 16.6 Face value ( ) 10.0 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M Timken India (1.7) Schaeffler India (8.6) (6.7) NRB Bearings (2.6) SKF India (2.4) (3.5) Price Chart 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Dec-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Price (R.H.S) May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Nifty (L.H.S) Aug-17 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 August 31, 2017 Simplifying structure for better synergies German industrial and automotive supplier Schaeffler Group has announced a merger of its Indian entities in a bid to simplify its holding structure. Schaeffler India Ltd (formerly Fag Bearings India Ltd), INA Bearings India Pvt Ltd and LuK India Pvt Ltd, have approved the draft scheme of amalgamation for the merger of INA India and LuK India into Schaeffler India As part of the merger scheme, Schaeffler India (SIL) will issue 10 equity shares to shareholders of INA India for every 65 equity shares held and issue 10 equity shares to shareholders of LuK India, for every 35 equity shares held. At present, the Schaeffler group holds 51.3% stake in Schaeffler India and 100% stake in both INA India and LuK India. With the proposed merger scheme, shareholding of the promoter group in Schaeffler India will be 74.1% Combined entity to offer diversified, high-growth product offerings The merged entity is likely to emerge as a larger automotive and industrial supplier with combined revenue and profitability (CY16) of ~ 3585 crore and ~ crore, respectively, with diversified product offerings across high-growth automotive and industrial segments. The merger will increase the share of the automotive business (OEM + Aftermarket) from ~31% to ~62% for SIL. As highlighted in the exhibit below, SIL will now add significant revenues from the high growth passenger segment, CVs, tractors, 2W and auto after-markets. Exhibit 1: Increase in contribution from auto/after-markets Schaeffler India (FAGBEA) 4800 Research Analyst Chirag J Shah chirag.shah@icicisecurities.com Sagar K Gandhi sagar.gandhi@icicisecurities.com Source: Company presentation, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Segment-wise, revenue contribution from the passenger vehicle segment is likely to improve to 28% from 11% currently. In the CV segment, the contribution will move up from 2% to 8% while in the auto after-market segment, it will inch up from 2% to 8%. Exhibit 2: Revenue mix (CY16) Source: Company presentation, ICICIdirect.com Research Larger consolidated entity to bring synergies On the OEM side, the consolidated entity has a better opportunity to bundle its offerings for package deals. For example, now clutch release bearings can be packaged with a clutch and clutch release system. Bearings and related products from transmission can now be offered as a package. On the after-market side, the combined entity will be able to leverage distribution channel of independent entities. This is likely to provide greater opportunity for maximising full truck loads and better control over transportation costs and shipping lead times. Exhibit 3: Current distribution network Schaeffler India INA Bearings LuK India Industrial Automotive 130 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Establishing one Schaeffler India entity The proposed merger is likely to create one of the biggest automotive component and bearing suppliers in India. Within the bearings space, Schaeffler India's range will expand to include needle roller bearings, linear roller bearings and precision spindle bearings. On the automotive front, the combined entity will have a full range of solutions in engine, transmission and chassis areas. Strong capabilities of the larger entity will help SIL participate in evolving trends of Industry 4.0 and e-mobility. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Valuation The implied valuation of INA bearings and LuK India on EV/sales was at 3.5x and 3.6x, respectively. On the EV/EBITDA front, implied valuation for INA Bearings and LuK India was at 25.1x and 20.9x, respectively. Exhibit 4: Financials: Merged entity Consolidated Entity Schaeffler India INA Bearings LuK India (Proforma) INRm CY16 CY16 CY16 CY16 Revenue % growth 5.20% 15.10% 16.60% EBITDA % margin 16.30% 14.00% 17.30% PAT % margin 16.50% 9.60% 12.20% Net debt Net worth EBITDA (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) No. of Shares Mcap Implied EV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Implied P/E Valuation Premium 40.3% 18.9% Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Valuation matrix of the listed bearings space... Exhibit 5: Comparative Valuation matrix NRB Bearings Ltd Crore FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Particular Amount Revenue Market Capitalization 1,153 EBITDA Total Debt (FY17) 265 Net Profit Cash and Investments (FY17) 23 EPS ( ) EV (FY17) 1, week H/L ( ) 157 / 103 Equity capital 19.4 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Face value ( ) 2.0 P/E (x) Target P/E Mcap/ Sales 1.6 EV/EBITDA EV/Sales 1.9 P/BV EV/EBITDA 11.7 RoE (%) RoCE (%) Timken India Ltd Crore FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E* Particular Amount Net Sales 1,051 1,056 1,217 1,699 Market Capitalization ( crore) 4,691 EBITDA Total Debt (FY17) ( crore) 8 Net Profit Cash and Investments (FY17) 11 EPS ( ) EV ( crore) 4, week H/L ( ) 747 / 510 Equity capital ( crore) 68.0 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Face value ( ) 10.0 P/E Target P/E * Mcap/ Sales 2.8 EV/EBITDA EV/Sales 3.8 P/BV EV/EBITDA 29.7 RoNW (%) RoCE (%) SKF Bearings Ltd Crore FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Particular Amount Revenue 2,998 2,631 2,869 3,218 Market Capitalization 8,226 EBITDA Total Debt 0 Net Profit Cash and Investments (FY17) 591 EPS ( ) EV 7, week H/L ( ) 1864 /1243 Equity capital (FY17) 52.7 Crore FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Face value 10 P/E Target P/E Mcap/ Sales 2.6 EV/EBITDA EV/Sales 2.9 P/BV EV/EBITDA 22.7 RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

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