Cement. Pet coke ban to dent margins in short-term. Sector Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. November 20, 2017

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1 Sector Update Sectoral View Cement Positive Rating matrix Companies Rating Target Price Old Revised Old Revised Shree Cement Hold Hold JK Lakshmi Cement Buy Buy Mangalam Cement Buy Buy Jk Cement Buy Buy What s Changed? Companies FY18E EPS FY19E EPS Old New Old New Shree Cement JK Lakshmi Cement Mangalam Cement Jk Cement Pet Coke Usage Company Pet Coke Usage (%) Shree Cement JK Lakshmi Cement 80.0 Mangalam Cement Jk Cement 75.0 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M Shree Cement JK Cement JK Lakshmi Cem Mangalam Cement Research Analysts Rashesh Shah rashes.shah@icicisecurities.com Devang Bhatt devang.bhatt@icicisecurities.com November 20, 2017 Pet coke ban to dent margins in short-term In order to curb pollution in north India, the Supreme Court (SC) has banned usage of petcoke in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. Cement companies have over the years significantly increased usage of pet coke due to its cost effectiveness against coal particularly for cement companies in Rajasthan (as companies in the state have to incur higher freight cost to source coal). Even at elevated prices of pet coke (that has increased 100% YoY), it is still cheaper than coal by ~10-15% on per kcal basis. Hence, the ban on pet coke will adversely impact power & fuel cost of cement companies and lead to an increase in cost per tonne to the extent of /t. However, we expect cement companies to pass on some part of the cost, which will result in net impact of 60-80/t. North based companies like Shree Cement, JK Cement, JK Lakshmi and Mangalam Cement will be the ones that will be impacted the most. Impact on stocks under our coverage Shree Cement: Shree Cement uses 100% pet coke. Hence, we expect maximum impact of the pet coke ban on Shree Cement. We revise our EBITDA margins downwards by 130 bps to 26% in FY18E from our previous estimate of 27% and revise EPS estimates of FY18E, FY19E downwards by 6%, 2% from our respective estimates JK Cement: JK Cement uses 75% pet coke. Hence, we revise EPS estimates downwards for JK Cement by 4% for FY18E and FY19E JK Lakshmi Cement: JK Lakshmi uses 80% pet coke. Accordingly, we revise EBITDA margins for FY18E and FY19E downwards by 50 bps and 41 bps and EPS downwards from 9.5 to 8.8 for FY18 and for FY19E from 20.6 to 20.4, respectively Mangalam Cement: We revise our power cost by 150/t for Mangalam Cement. However, we expect price hike to limit the dent in EBITDA margins. Consequently, we revise our EBITDA margins for FY18E and FY19E by 76 bps and 71 bps, respectively Continue to remain positive on cement sector Cement Although we expect the ban on pet coke to lead to higher power & fuel cost, we believe a price hike will partially mitigate the impact of higher cost. In addition, north-based cement companies are planning to appeal to Supreme Court for a reversal of the ban. Any reversal in the decision will be positive for north based companies. Further, the government s focus on road construction (83,677 km to be built over the next five years) and affordable housing (~2.2 crore houses to be built over the next two or three years) bodes well for cement demand. This, coupled with a revival in the rural economy (accounts for 40% of total sales), slowdown in capacity addition and consolidation in the industry augurs well for cement companies. Hence, we remain positive on the cement sector as a whole from a longer term perspective.

2 Financial summary JK Cement Total operating Income 3, , , ,748.2 Growth (%) Raw material cost Employee Expenses Power, Oil & Fuel Freight cost Other Expenses Total Operating Exp. 3, , , ,896.9 EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Exceptional items PBT Total Tax PAT Growth (%) Adjusted EPS ( ) Profit after Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Others CF from investing activities Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus 1, , , ,433.0 Total Shareholders funds 1, , , ,502.9 Total Debt 2, , , ,260.9 Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest / Others Total 4, , , ,032.2 Gross Block 4, , , ,593.2 Less: Acc Depreciation 1, , , ,723.7 Net Block 3, , , ,869.5 Capital WIP Total Fixed 3, , , ,974.3 Intangible Asset Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Cash Total Current 1, , , ,735.3 Creditors , ,109.7 Provisions Total Current , ,220.6 Net Current Application of Funds 4, , , ,032.2 Adjusted EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share EBITDA Margin PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days RoE RoCE RoIC P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Page 2

3 Financial summary Shree Cement Total operating Income 5, , , ,826.0 Growth (%) Raw material cost Power & Fuel cost Freight cost Employees cost Others Total Operating Exp. 4, , , ,489.5 EBITDA 1, , , ,336.4 Growth (%) Depreciation , ,349.9 Interest Other Income PBT 1, , , ,395.0 Others Total Tax PAT 1, , , ,724.4 Adjusted PAT 1, , , ,724.4 Growth (%) Adjusted EPS ( ) Profit after Tax 1, , , ,724.4 Add: Depreciation , ,349.9 Add: Interest (Inc)/dec in Current Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions CF from operating activities 1, , , ,751.1 (Inc)/dec in Investments -1, , (Inc)/dec in Fixed , , ,000.0 Others CF from investing activities -2, , , ,350.0 Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus 6, , , ,438.8 Total Shareholders funds 6, , , ,473.7 Total Debt 1, , , ,658.1 Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest / Others Total 8, , , ,624.1 Gross Block 9, , , ,209.9 Less: Acc Depreciation 6, , , ,990.7 Net Block 3, , , ,219.3 Capital WIP Total Fixed 3, , , ,219.3 Investments 3, , , ,592.6 Inventory , , ,833.8 Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current 1, , , ,182.6 Cash Total Current 2, , , ,130.4 Creditors ,030.3 Provisions , , ,287.9 Total Current , , ,318.2 Net Current 1, , , ,812.2 Application of Funds 8, , , ,624.0 EPS Cash EPS BV 1, , , ,009.7 DPS Cash Per Share EBITDA Margin PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days RoE RoCE RoIC P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Page 3

4 Financial summary Mangalam Cement Total operating Income , ,196.5 Growth (%) Raw material Power & Fuel Employees Freight Others Total Operating Exp ,011.2 EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Exceptional items PBT Total Tax PAT Growth (%) N.A N.A Adjusted EPS ( ) Profit after Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Others CF from investing activities Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Other Total , Gross Block 1, , , ,502.1 Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Total Fixed Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Cash Total Current Creditors Provisions Total Current Net Current Application of Funds , Adjusted EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share EBITDA Margin PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days RoE RoCE RoIC P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Page 4

5 Financial summary JK Lakshmi Total operating Income 2, , , ,098.4 Growth (%) Raw material Power & Fuel Employees Freight Others Total Operating Exp. 2, , , ,475.8 EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Exceptional items PBT Total Tax PAT Adjusted PAT Growth (%) , Adjusted EPS ( ) Profit after Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Inc/(dec) in CL and Prov CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Others CF from investing activities Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus 1, , , ,644.7 Total Shareholders funds 1, , , ,703.6 Total Debt 1, , , ,706.6 Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest / Others Total 3, , , ,410.1 Gross Block 4, , , ,267.5 Less: Acc Depreciation 1, , , ,156.9 Net Block 2, , , ,110.6 Capital WIP Total Fixed 3, , , ,110.6 Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Non current Investments Cash Total Current , , ,093.4 Creditors , , ,304.4 Provisions Total Current , , ,343.6 Net Current Application of Funds 3, , , ,410.1 Adjusted EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share EBITDA Margin PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days RoE RoCE RoIC P/E 1, EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Page 5

6 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com Page 6

7 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Rashesh Shah, CA, and Devang Bhatt, PGDBM Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a Sebi registered Research Analyst with Sebi Registration Number INH ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Rashesh Shah, CA, and Devang Bhatt, PGDBM Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Rashesh Shah, CA, and Devang Bhatt, PGDBM Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 7

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