DAILY MARKET REPORT 16 JANUARY 2019

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 16 JANUARY 2019 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is stronger this morning and trading around R13.75/$ despite the fact that the dollar is also stronger. On the chart the rand is looking to break below its 200-day moving average. South African equities did end higher with the JSE Top40 ending 0.10% higher in the session yesterday. In the US the dollar is stronger and trading around to the euro this morning and US equities posted some gains with the Dow ending 0.65% higher in the daytime session and this morning the Dow futures are also 0.23% higher. In Europe British MP s voted against Prime Minister May s deal to exit from the European Union which supported the pound. Commodity prices are mixed with gold mostly flat while platinum prices are 0.19% lower this morning and crude oil jumped and is 1.92% higher than the levels seen yesterday. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: Weekly South African producer deliveries South African retail sales data German inflation data UK inflation data US retail sales data

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Mar maize CME Jul maize CME Mar wheat KCBT Mar wheat KCBT Jul wheat Matif Mar wheat (Euro/ton) CME Mar soybeans Mar CME maize R/ton Jul CME maize R/ton Mar CME wheat R/ton Mar KCBT wheat R/ton Jul KCBT wheat R/ton Mar CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices ended lower in the daytime session yesterday with concerns about the US and China trade talks and some technical selling weighing on the market. This morning the electronic maize prices are slightly higher. It was mentioned that the US trade representative did not see any change in the structural issues between the US and China and the market still await confirmation of any purchases by China, The weather conditions in South America probably limited some of the losses with the warm and dry conditions in parts of Brazil and the excessive rainfall in some the growing areas of Argentina. On the technical chart for March CME maize we see that the market slumped lower breaking below the 40-day and 100-day averages ending the day close to the session low. Support is seen around $3.67 and $3.55. Soybeans US soybean prices ended lower in the daytime session yesterday with concerns about the slowdown in demand out of China and some technical selling weighing on the market. This morning the electronic soybean prices are higher. The ongoing trade issues between the US and China and the fact that China are yet to come to the US market to buy soybeans are weighing on prices. The US NOPA soybean crush for the month of December was reported at million bushels which was higher than the market expectation and the 3 rd highest monthly estimate on record. On the chart for March CME soybeans we see that the market did get resistance at the 40-day average and prices sold off after that ending the day slightly off the session lows. Key support is seen at the 10-day average around $8.90. Wheat US wheat futures ended lower in the daytime session with some technical selling while the spillover weakness from the lower US maize and soybeans also added some pressure. This morning the electronic prices are higher. The dollar is also slightly stronger this morning which is making US wheat less competitive in the global export market. On the chart for March KCBT wheat we see that the market attempted to gain some ground but did get resistance at the 40-day average and prices sold off after that. Support is seen in the $4.90-$4.85 area. 2

3 US rainfall forecast for the week ahead US 6-10 Day temperature forecast South American rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 15 January 2019 Maize South African white maize opened the day sharply higher (limits up) but prices sold off after that with some profit taking that was seen by market longs. The higher initial margins that came into effect could also have resulted in some position squaring. March white maize started the day at R3239 which was also the intraday high of the session with our market coming under pressure after that. March white maize traded to an intraday low of R3103 and March white maize ended the day slightly off the session lows. US maize prices are lower this morning and the rand is also stronger which is putting pressure on parity prices. The selloff seen in our market yesterday and the and lower parity prices could put some pressure on local maize in the session today. However the weather forecast is still a concern and this could limit some of the losses in especially white maize. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day lower with the stronger rand adding some pressure at the start of the session. March wheat opened the day at R4462 and traded to a low of R4458 before some buying was seen. The market traded to an intraday high of R4480 with March wheat ending the day at the session high. The strong close that was seen in our market could be supportive for local wheat in the sessions ahead. US wheat prices are lower this morning and the rand is stronger which is putting some pressure on parity prices. The stronger rand could put some pressure on local wheat in the session today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Mar May Jul Yellow Maize Mar May Jul Wheat Mar May Jul Sunflower Mar May Soybeans Mar May CME Corn Mar Jul South African soybean contracts opened the day higher with some selling that was seen after the opening. March soybean contracts started the day at R4934 which was also the intraday high of the session with soybeans coming under some pressure after that. The market sold off after that breaking below the 40- day average and trading to an intraday low of R4840 and soybean contracts ended the day close to the session low. The weak close that was seen could weigh on our market with support seen at the 100-day average at R

5 South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day slightly higher with some buying that was seen after the opening. March sunflower seed contracts started the day at R5798 and traded to an intraday high of R5859 but the market failed to hold the intraday gains and prices sold off after that. March sunflower seed contracts traded to an intraday low of R5690 and sunflower seed contracts ended the day off the session lows. US soybeans are sharply lower this morning and the rand is also stronger which is resulting in sharply lower parity prices which could put some pressure on local sunflower seed and soybean contracts in the session this morning. Weather conditions Cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Mar maize prices CME Mar corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWH9 Cndl, MAWH9, Trade Price 2019/01/15, , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /01/15, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /01/15, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /01/15, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /01/15, /05/ /01/28 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2019/01/15, Value ZAR T May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January

7 Daily CH9 Cndl, CH9, Trade Price, 2019/01/16, 373, 374, 373, 374, +3, (+0.67%), SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2019/01/16, 378, SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2019/01/16, 378, SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2019/01/16, /03/ /02/01 (CHG) Price USc Bsh RSI, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2019/01/16, Value USc Bsh April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January