DAILY MARKET REPORT 21 DECEMBER 2018

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 21 DECEMBER 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is weaker this morning and trading around R14.33/$ with the dollar slightly stronger. South African equities did come under some pressure with the JSE Top40 ending 0.41% lower yesterday. In the US the dollar is under pressure and trading around to the euro this morning and US equities once again traded sharply lower with the Dow ending 1.99% lower in the daytime session and this morning the Dow futures are also 0.15% lower. Commodity prices are mixed with precious metal prices gaining some ground as a result of dollar weakness and some safe haven buying while crude oil prices under some more pressure with Brent crude 1.53% lower than the levels seen yesterday. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: US 3 rd quarter GDP US durable goods orders European Union consumer confidence UK 3 rd quarter GDP

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Mar maize CME Jul maize CME Mar wheat KCBT Mar wheat KCBT Jul wheat Matif Mar wheat (Euro/ton) CME Jan soybeans Mar CME maize R/ton Jul CME maize R/ton Mar CME wheat R/ton Mar KCBT wheat R/ton Jul KCBT wheat R/ton Jan CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices traded lower in the daytime session yesterday with the weak ethanol market and favorable weather in South America adding some pressure. This morning the electronic prices are slightly higher. Slowing demand in the US ethanol market while the slump in energy prices has also wiped ethanol profit margins weighing on US maize prices. The weekly US export sales figures of maize released yesterday was reported at million tons which was in line with expectations. The USDA also announced private sales of tons of maize that was sold to Mexico. On the technical chart for March CME maize we see that the market broke below the 40-day and 100-day averages in the session yesterday ending the day close to the session low. Support is seen at $3.68 and $3.55. Soybeans Wheat US soybean contracts traded lower with the market waiting for some more purchases by China while the good crop prospects in South America also added some pressure. This morning the electronic prices are mostly flat. The weekly US export sales figures of soybeans released yesterday was reported at million tons which was higher than the market expectation seen ranging between 2.1 and 2.7 million tons. The USDA also announced private sales of tons sold to China and another tons to an unknown destination. On the chart for January CME soybeans we see that prices did come under some pressure ending the day close to the session lows. Support is seen at $8.90 and $8.80 while resistance is seen around $9.00. US wheat futures ended slightly higher in the daytime session yesterday with some technical buying and short covering that was seen. The losses in maize and soybeans limited the gains. This morning the electronic prices are mostly flat. The weekly US export sales figures of wheat was reported at tons which was lower than the market expectation seen ranging between and tons. Egypt in their tender bought tons of Ukrainian and Romanian wheat. No Russian wheat was bought due to higher prices seen recently. On the chart for March KCBT wheat we see that the market did get some support at the 40-day average seen around $5.10/bushel. 2

3 US rainfall forecast for the week ahead US 6-10 Day temperature forecast South American rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 20 December 2018 Maize South African white maize prices started the day higher with the market trading both sides of unchanged after that. March white maize started the day at R3125 and traded to a high of R3145 before coming under some pressure probably on some long liquidation/profit taking. The market traded to an intraday low of R3052 but pulled well off the lows ending the day around R3108. The July white maize contracts gained more ground than the March contracts. US maize prices are lower this morning and the rand is weaker which is still resulting in lower parity prices this morning. The lower parity prices could weigh on our market in the session today as well as some position squaring ahead of the weekend. The weather forecast expects isolated rainfall in the eastern parts the next few days with very little for the central and western parts at least through to the end of next week. Wheat South African wheat contracts started the day lower with some more weakness that was seen after the opening. March wheat started the day at R4439 and traded to a low of R4428 finding some support around the 9-day average and prices attempted some gains after that. The market traded to an intraday high of R4471 but March wheat ended the day well off the session highs and around the opening levels. Support is seen at R4430 and resistance at 4445 and the R4500-R4505 area. US wheat prices are lower than the levels seen at Safex close yesterday which despite the weaker rand is putting some pressure on parity prices. The weaker rand seen this morning could provide some support to local wheat in the session today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Dec Mar Jul Yellow Maize Dec Mar Jul Wheat Dec Mar Jul Sunflower Dec Mar Soybeans Dec Mar CME Corn Mar Jul South African soybean contracts gapped lower at the opening with some strong selling that was seen after the opening. March soybean contracts started the day at R5187 and traded to a high of R5200 before trading sharply lower. The market sold off trading to a low of R5073 (limits down) ending the day at the session low. The weak performance and close could weigh on the market in the sessions ahead. 4

5 South African sunflower seed contracts traded lower from the start with some more selling that was seen after the opening. March sunflower seed contracts started the day at R5670 and briefly traded to a high of R5700 but the market sold off after that once again. March sunflower seed contracts traded to an intraday low of R5570 (limits down) ending the day at the session low. US soybean contracts are lower which is putting some pressure on parity prices despite the weaker rand. The strong sell off seen in our oilseed markets in the session yesterday could once again put some pressure on local prices in the session today. Weather conditions Cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Mar maize prices CME Mar corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWH9 Cndl, MAWH9, Trade Price 2018/12/20, , , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /12/20, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /12/20, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /12/20, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /12/20, /04/ /01/07 (JHB) Price ZAR T Auto RSI, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/12/20, Value ZAR T Apr 18 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December Auto 6

7 Daily CH9 Cndl, CH9, Trade Price, 2018/12/21, / 2, / 4, / 4, / 4, +1 1 / 2, (+0.40%), SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/12/21, / 2+, SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/12/21, / 8+, SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/12/21, /11/ /01/14 (CHG) Price USc Bsh / / / RSI, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/12/21, /8 Value USc Bsh Nov 17 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 Jan Auto 7