DAILY MARKET REPORT 14 SEPTEMBER 2018

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 14 SEPTEMBER 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand gained back some more ground with the local currency trading as low as R14.60/$ in the session yesterday but the rand is seen around R14.76/$ this morning. The weaker dollar supported the rand. South African equities posted some gains with the JSE Top40 ending 0.36% higher. In the US the dollar is weaker trading at to the euro this morning with the dollar breaking above its 100-day moving average in the session yesterday. US equities posted some gains with the Dow ending 0.57% higher in the daytime session and this morning equity futures are mostly flat. Yesterday the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 6.25% which supported their currency. Commodity prices are mixed with precious metal prices mostly flat despite the weaker dollar while Brent crude oil prices are 1% lower than the levels seen at Safex close yesterday. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: European Union trade balance US retail sales data US industrial production

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Dec maize CME Mar maize CME Dec wheat KCBT Dec wheat KCBT Mar wheat Matif Dec wheat (Euro/ton) CME Nov soybeans Dec CME maize R/ton Mar CME maize R/ton Dec CME wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Mar KCBT wheat R/ton Nov CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices traded lower in the daytime session yesterday on some more follow through selling that was seen following the USDA reports while the lower US wheat futures also added some pressure. This morning the electronic prices are lower. The weekly US export sales figures of maize released yesterday was reported at tons which was lower than the market expectation seen ranging between and 1.2 million tons. On the technical chart for December CME maize we see that the market sold off trading to a new recent low of $3.48 ¾ in the session yesterday but the market managed to end the day above $3.50 and the electronic prices are higher this morning. Soybeans Wheat US soybean contracts ended lower in the session yesterday with the ongoing trade war between the US and China weighing on the market. This morning the electronic CME soybeans are trading slightly higher. The weekly US export sales figures of soybeans released yesterday was reported at tons which was in line with the market expectations seen ranging between and 1 million tons. On the technical chart for November CME soybeans we see that the market failed to sustain a break above the 9-day average and prices sold off ending the day near the session low. Support is seen in the $8.30-$8.20 area. US wheat prices traded lower in the session yesterday with some follow through selling that was seen after the USDA report in which they unexpectedly raised world wheat production. This morning the electronic wheat prices are higher. The weekly US export sales figures of wheat released yesterday was reported at tons which was in line with the market expectation seen ranging between and tons. On the technical chart for December KCBT wheat we see that the market traded lower in the daytime session but prices managed to find some support around $5.00/bushel and the market pulled off the lows into the close. Key support is seen around $5.00-$

3 US cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead (inches) US 6-10 temperature forecast US 6-10 Day rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 13 September 2018 Maize South African maize prices gapped lower from the opening with the sharply lower parity prices weighing on our market. December white maize started the day at R2452 which was also the intraday high of the session with our market coming under some more pressure after that. December white maize traded to an intraday low of R2425 and the market ended the day off the session lows. Support is seen at R2400 and the R2370 area. The South African maize exports for the past week was reported at tons including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. US maize prices are lower this morning and adding to this the rand is also stronger resulting in lower parity prices this morning which could put some more pressure on local white and yellow maize prices in the session today. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day sharply lower but some buying interest was seen after the opening. December wheat contracts opened the day at R4500 which was also the intraday low of the session with our market gaining back some ground after that. December wheat managed to erase some of the intraday losses and traded to a high of R4535 ending the day rather close to the session highs. The South African wheat imports for the past week was reported at tons. The wheat that was imported originated from Russia. US CME and KCBT wheat prices are mixed with the electronic KCBT wheat prices higher this morning but the stronger rand is still putting some pressure on party prices. Our wheat market did end the day near the session high yesterday but the stronger rand this morning could limit some of the buying interest. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Sep Dec Mar Yellow Maize Sep Dec Mar Wheat Sep Dec Mar Sunflower Sep Dec Soybeans Sep Dec CME Corn Dec Mar South African soybean contracts opened the day lower with some buying interest that was seen after the opening. December soybean contracts started the day at R4640 which was also the intraday low of the session with the market gaining back some ground after that. December soybean contracts traded to an intraday high of R4678 but the market failed to hold above the 100-day average and ended the day well off the session highs. 4

5 South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day lower with some more selling that was seen after the opening. December sunflower seed contracts started the day at R5220 and briefly traded to a high of R5235 with the market coming under some pressure after that. December sunflower seed contracts sold off to a low of R5160 but prices managed to pull well off the intraday lows ending the day above R5200. This morning the US soybean contracts are slightly higher than the levels seen yesterday but the stronger rand is still resulting in lower parity prices. The stronger rand could limit some of the buying interest in local oilseeds in the session today. Weather conditions Rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Dec maize prices CME Dec corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWZ8 Cndl, MAWZ8, Trade Price 2018/09/13, , , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /09/13, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /09/13, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /09/13, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /09/13, /02/ /09/26 (JHB) Price ZAR T Auto RSI, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/09/13, Value ZAR T February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 Auto 6

7 Daily CZ8 Cndl, CZ8, Trade Price, 2018/09/14, / 4, / 4, / 4, 352, +1 1 / 2, (+0.43%), SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/09/14, / 8+, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/09/14, / 4, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/09/14, /01/ /09/27 (CHG) Price USc Bsh / / RSI, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/09/14, /8 Value USc Bsh Jan 18 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 Auto 7