DAILY MARKET REPORT 05 NOVEMBER 2018

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 05 NOVEMBER 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is mostly unchanged from the levels seen on Friday with the rand quoted at R14.34/$ this morning. The stronger dollar seen this morning could possibly limit the gains in the rand. South African equities gained back some more ground with the JSE Top40 ending 1.45% higher in the session yesterday. In the US the dollar is stronger and is currently trading at to the euro this morning and US equities did come under some pressure with the Dow ending 0.43% lower in the daytime session and this morning the Dow futures are 0.32% lower. Commodity prices are not much changed from the levels seen on Friday with gold and crude oil prices 0.27% and 0.88% lower this morning while platinum prices are 0.75% higher this morning. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: US manufacturing PMI

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Dec maize CME Mar maize CME Dec wheat KCBT Dec wheat KCBT Mar wheat Matif Dec wheat (Euro/ton) CME Nov soybeans Dec CME maize R/ton Mar CME maize R/ton Dec CME wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Mar KCBT wheat R/ton Nov CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices posted some gains in the session on Friday with the expectation for a lower US maize crop in the USDA report this week adding some support. This morning the electronic maize prices are trading slightly higher. Some export interest for US maize also added support. The USDA announced a private export sale of tons of US maize that was sold to Mexico. The private forecaster Informa Economics lowered their US 2018 maize yield estimate by 2.4 bushels/acre to bushels/acre. They estimate the US maize crop at billion bushels. On the technical chart for December CME maize we see that the market posted some good gains breaking above the 100-day average ending the day slightly off the session highs. Resistance is seen at the mid-october highs of $3.78. Soybeans US soybean contracts ended slightly higher in the daytime session on Friday on hopes that the US and China will resolve the current trade dispute. This morning the electronic soybean prices are trading slightly higher. The expectation for a slightly smaller US soybean yield in the USDA crop report later this week also added support. The forecaster Informa Economics lower their US soybean yield to 52.6 bushels/acre which is down from their previous estimate of 53 bushels. They estimate the US soybean crop at billion bushels. On the chart for November CME soybeans we see that the market posted some gains trading as high as $8.92 but soybean contracts ended the day well off the session highs. Support is seen at the 100-day average at $8.67/bushel. Wheat US wheat prices managed some gains in the daytime session on Friday with the spillover gains from the higher US maize prices and some short covering adding support. This morning the electronic wheat prices are higher. The gains in US wheat futures were limited by the slow export progress of US wheat and the stronger dollar seen on Friday. On the chart for December KCBT wheat we see that the market did get some support at the 9- day average and gained ground after that. December KCBT wheat did get some resistance around $5.05 ending the day off the session highs. 2

3 US rainfall forecast for the week ahead US 6-10 temperature forecast US 6-10 Day rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 02 November 2018 Maize South African maize prices opened the day mostly flat with the market trading on both sides of the opening level after that. December white maize started the day at R2400 and traded higher with the market trading to a high of R2420 finding some resistance at the 40-day average and prices pulled off the level after that. December white maize traded to an intraday low of R2385 and managed to pull off the lows ending the day around the opening levels. US maize prices are higher than the levels seen on Friday and the rand is mostly flat trading at R14.35/$ which is resulting in higher parity prices this morning. The higher parity prices could be supportive for local maize prices in the session today. The weather forecast expects some showers in the eastern parts of the country. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day lower with some more follow through selling that was seen after that with the stronger rand also adding some pressure. December wheat contracts started the day at R4435 and briefly traded to a high of R4445 with wheat coming under some more pressure after that. The market sold off to an intraday low of R4400 with the market once again finding some support at that level and prices managed to end the day off the session lows. US CME and KCBT wheat prices are higher this morning and the rand is mostly flat resulting in higher parity prices. Local wheat was under pressure in the session on Friday which could limit some of the buying interest in our market today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Dec Mar Jul Yellow Maize Dec Mar Jul Wheat Dec Mar Jul Sunflower Dec Mar Soybeans Dec Mar CME Corn Dec Mar South African soybean contracts started the day higher with the sharply higher parity prices supporting our market at the opening. December soybean contracts started the day at R4610 with the market pulling lower after that trading to an intraday low of R4555 but prices posted some gains into the close once again ending the day sharply higher and above the 100-day moving average. 4

5 Sunflower seed contracts opened the day higher in a volatile trading session with the sharply higher parity prices adding support. December sunflower seed contracts started the day at R5135 and traded high after that trading to a high of R5175 finding some resistance at the 40-day average and sunflower seed contracts pulled well off the highs after that. The market traded to an intraday low of R5066 with prices getting some support at the 100-day average and sunflower seed contracts ended the day off the session lows. US soybean contracts are lower this morning and the rand is flat resulting in sharply lower parity prices which could put some pressure on local oilseeds in the session today. Weather conditions Cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Dec maize prices CME Dec corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWZ8 Cndl, MAWZ8, Trade Price 2018/11/02, , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /11/02, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /11/02, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /11/02, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /11/02, /02/ /11/16 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/11/02, Value ZAR T February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November

7 Daily CZ8 Cndl, CZ8, Trade Price, 2018/11/05, 371, 373, 371, 372, +1, (+0.13%), SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/11/05, 364, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/11/05, 367, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/11/05, /01/ /11/20 (CHG) Price USc Bsh RSI, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/11/05, Value USc Bsh Jan 18 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November