10/06/2013. USA: Planting Progress Corn. XXVI FEFAC Congress

Transcription

1 XXVI FEFAC Congress Outlook on the EU and global oilseeds and cereals markets / campaign COCERAL view on the impacts of the EU financial markets reform Stefan Vogel Vice President COCERAL Price trend basis Jan Source: Oil World, Reuters June, Chart 2 USA: Planting Progress Corn June, Chart 3 1

2 USA: Planting Progress Soybeans June, Chart 4 Black Sea Region: Precipitation: Departure from normal rains for the period Source: Earthsat June, Chart 5 Black Sea Region: Precipitation: Departure from normal rains for the peri Source: Earthsat June, Chart 6 2

3 EU 28: Precipitation: Departure from normal rains for the peri Source: Earthsat June, Chart 7 World: Grain Production June, Chart 8 World: Grain Production & Consumption Sources: USDA June, Chart 9 3

4 World: Grain Stocks & Stocks/Use ratio June, Chart 10 World: Wheat Production and Use Sources: USDA June, Chart 11 USA: Maize Production & Consumption mlnbu USDA Informa USDA Scenario Informa PLANTED ACRES HARVESTED ACRES YIELD SEP.1 STOCKS 1,673 1,708 1, PRODUCTION 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 10,780 14,140 13,671 14,398 IMPORTS TOTAL SUPPLY 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 11,919 14,924 14,485 15,252 FEED 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 4,300 5,325 5,400 5,300 F/S/I 5,961 6,426 6,439 5,985 6,025 6,295 6,585 6,350 ETHANOL FOR FUEL 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,600 4,600 4,850 5,150 4,925 DOMESTIC USE 11,086 11,220 10,984 10,385 10,325 11,620 11,985 11,650 EXPORTS 1,980 1,834 1, ,300 1,400 1,550 TOTAL USAGE 13,066 13,054 12,527 11,135 11,075 12,920 13,385 13,200 CARRYOUT 1,708 1, ,004 1,100 2,052 STOCKS TO 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 6.8% 7.6% 15.5% 8.2% 15.5% USAGE Sources: USDA, Informa Economics, PBC June, Chart 12 4

5 World: Maize Production & Consumption mln t Sources: USDA June, Chart % World: Distribution of Grain Stocks 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24% 26% 29% 29% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26% 23% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 13% 12% 9% 7% 9% 9% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 9% 7% 9% 9% 7% 9% 8% 8% 10% 15% 18% 18% 12% 10% 14% 15% 14% 15% 11% 9% 10% 5% 5% 7% 8% 10% 3% 3% 28% 27% 32% 31% 30% 30% 33% 34% 39% 35% other RUK EU 27 Bra, Can, Aus; Arg USA India China Share of China declines for the first time in 4 years June, Chart 14 World: Grain Stocks per Commodity June, Chart 15 5

6 World: Distribution of maize stocks 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 14% 17% 19% 17% 18% 22% 20% 19% 21% 20% 2% 23% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 6% 7% 22% 15% 23% 19% 33% 29% 30% 22% 9% 5% 41% 40% 30% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 3% 10% 3% 2% 43% 35% 35% 39% 38% 28% 28% 33% 29% others other Exporters EU 27 USA Brasilien China 0% Share of the USA rises from 15% to 33% Chinas share declines from 50% to 38% June, Chart 16 World Grain Exports June, Chart 17 EU Grain Production Some thoughts and figures UK bad Recovery in S.E. Europe expected Spain good crop Source: Coceral June, Chart 18 6

7 EU Grain S&D WHEAT BARLEY Corn TOTAL CEREALS 12/13 12/13 12/13 13/14 12/13 11/12 13/14 11/12 13/14 11/12 13/14 11/12 Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic Use of which Feed Use of which Bioethanol Production Exports 3rd Carry out Stock to use ratio 10% 9% 12% 11% 9% 11% 12% 11% 15% 11% 10% 12% Source: Coceral June, Chart Available quantity of Soybeans in March* ,9 44,1 48,2 137,5 41,5 32,7 167,7 168,5 39,0 36,2 58,2 53,8 155,6 40,3 43,5 165,1 29,4 53,2 USA Argentinien ,6 63,3 70,5 78,5 71,8 82, Brasilien * Brazil from January onwards Sources: USDA, Oil World June, Chart 20 USA: Soybean Production & Consumption mlnbu September-August USDA USDA Informa USDA Scenario Informa PLANTED ACRES HARVESTED ACRES YIELD SOYBEANS (MIL BU) SEP. 1 STOCKS PRODUCTION 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,015 3,390 3,450 3,388 IMPORTS TOTAL SUPPLY 3,187 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,209 3,530 3,582 3,542 CRUSH 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,635 1,635 1,695 1,670 1,650 EXPORTS 1,279 1,498 1,495 1,360 1,350 1,340 1,450 1,400 1,425 SEED OTHER TOTAL USAGE 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,156 3,080 3,070 3,265 3,202 3,205 YEAR END STOCKS STOCKS/USAGE 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.0% 4.5% 8.1% 11.9% 10.5% Sources: USDA, Informa Economics, PBC June, Chart 21 7

8 EU: rapeseed balance mln t Production 15,6 16,1 18,5 19,1 21,5 20,3 19,1 19,7 20,7 Imports 0,4 0,5 0,7 3,3 2,2 2,7 3,5 3,1 2,9 Ukraine 0,1 0,4 0,4 2,3 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,3 Australia 0,3 0,2 0,8 0,4 1,1 1,9 1,8 1,2 Canada 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1 Sources: Oil World, GTIS, Toepfer June, Chart 22?? General: Tight grain balance in 2012/13 Low ending stock levels, especially in exporting countries Prices should remain volatile Bullish: South American Logistics - this will mainly affect soy Warm and dry weather in Russia - not a big issue yet, as long as March- May rainfall is adequate Wetness in US/Canada during planting - Concern of lower yields and reduced corn area China imports -?? Bearish: Well developed crops in Europe Big area in US - USDA corn area to high Return to average yields? June, Chart 23 COCERAL views on the impacts of EU financial markets reform June, Chart 24 8

9 Quality of Data: USDA Estimate of World Grain S+D for 2007/08 Mil. t Production estimate Consumption estimate Difference = Prod. Consumption in Mil. t June, Chart 25 Quality of Data: USDA Estimate and Cbot Wheat price nearby month $/t Mil. t Difference = Prod. Consumption in Mil. t EU Financial Markets Regulations Overview In Force: Under EU legislative process: Regulation of Exchanges MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments Directive) Regulation of Insider Information MAD (Market Abuse Directive) (Markets Abuse Regulation) EMIR (European Markets Infrastructure Regulation) Revision New Revision New New New MiFID II MiFIR MAD II MAR (Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation) OTC Regulation Energy Markets, EUAs (Emissions) REMIT (Regulation on Energy Market Integrity & Transparency ) the year of rulemaking the year of implementation June, Chart 27 9

10 MiFID II/MiFIR MiFID is in force since 2007 and now under revision MiFID II plus MiFIR (Directive and Regulation) MiFID governs investment services in financial instruments by banks and investment firms and the operation of traditional stock exchanges and Multilateral Trading Facilities (MTF) MiFID II will introduce a new type of trading venue: the Organised Trading Facility (OTF) Stricter framework for commodity derivatives markets Improve transparency MiFID II/MiFIR still under negotiations in Council MiFID II for agricultural commodities Exemption art.2: Commercial (agricultural) firms which hedge their risks are exempted from MiFID II for their main and ancillary business. Position checks art.59: ag. commodity contracts will be subject to position checks instead of limits. Flexible vs. rigid approach. Position reporting art.60: position reporting done by financial counterparties, i.e. CCP (Central Clearing Party) or broker. Creation of weekly publication with aggregated positions by category of trader > similar to CFTC report MAD II/MAR MAD is in force since 2003 and now is under revision to be replaced by a regulation: MAR MAD introduced a framework to tackle insider dealing and market manipulation MAR will be extended beyond MTF, to OTF and to related financial instruments traded OTC Rules are extended to include agricultural derivatives MAR legislative process is integrated with MiFID II/MIFIR Council agreed already on a general approach on MAR, but no finalisation until MiFID II progresses 10

11 MAR for agricultural commodities Prohibition of insider dealing art.9: as designed today, art. 9 could prevent hedging of risks for ag. commodities contracts Exemption to insider dealing art. 7 Need for a workable exemption of hedging strategies for ag. commodities operators EMIR EMIR entered into force on 16 August It introduces: Reporting and clearing obligation for OTC derivatives, common rules for central counterparties (CCPs) and for trade repositories, rules on the establishment of interoperability between CCPs. An OTC regulated by EMIR is an option, future, swap, forward or other derivatives contract that is settled in cash. Excluded are: Physically delivered options, futures and swaps relating to commodities not traded through a regulated market or MTF Physically delivered commodity forwards which are not cleared through a clearing house Technical regulatory & implementing standards defines practical applications 9 are already adopted and more to come EMIR and agricultural commodities Clearing threshold for non financial entities If > 3 bln EUR OTC volumes for 30 consecutive days, non financial entities are subject to central clearing requirements Clearing obligation abolished if threshold is not exceeded anymore for 30 days. For uncleared trades: Post trade reporting, record keeping, collateralization and margin Clearing obligation for non financial entities will enter into force not before